Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

BZ

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

What are they supposed to do though? It seems far too easy or just lazy to have a go at the government over this - airport testing is a complete red herring and almost nobody wants to fly anyway. They can't force people to use the airports and they can't magic away the pandemic either. It is what it is (and given that we're almost certainly looking at restrictions into 2022 it will get worse before it gets better).

Easy or lazy to have a go at the government, are you having a laugh? Over the last few months every company in the business has been trying to get things going again and I know from experience it's been incredibly frustrating. We all want to get the aviation industry moving again safely for both staff and passengers but when you have a government that are not willing to engage or even try something and rather bury their head in the sand it's crazy. There's a lot of us facing an uncertain future that is feeling everyday more uncertain when there is no engagement from the government on what can be done to get the industry moving again.

RocketRaccoon

Faith wrote: »

For a complete layperson, can anyone explain what this means in practice? We rely very heavily on the ORK - STN route. Does that mean there won't be flights on that route over winter, given that Ryanair are the only airline operating it?

What it means, basically, is that there will be no Ryanair aircraft based in Shannon or Cork. Therefore there will be no flights first thing in the morning, the airports will be reliant on aircraft arriving from other airports rather than using their own based ones.

For example, in Shannon one of the 2 base aircraft would have done the flight to STN first thing, returned to SNN before departing to LGW, returning in the afternoon and then departing to another destination in Europe before returning again that night. None of that will be possible now.

Acosta

Faith wrote: »

For a complete layperson, can anyone explain what this means in practice? We rely very heavily on the ORK - STN route. Does that mean there won't be flights on that route over winter, given that Ryanair are the only airline operating it?

No confirmation on how many Cork to Stansted flights there will be per week, but I'd say it'll be no more than 5. Hopefully I'm wrong and it'll be 7.

The airports and airlines desperately wanted confirmation on pre flight tasting for over a month now, but our dithering politicians were not forthcoming. I guess that's what happens when we vote for overpaid caretakers instead of leaders. Everyone knew it was this week Ryanair were going to confirm as the summer schedule ends over the next week and a half and they needed to confirm the winter schedule.But nothing from the government.

Cosmo Kramer

BZ wrote: »

Easy or lazy to have a go at the government, are you having a laugh? Over the last few months every company in the business has been trying to get things going again and I know from experience it's been incredibly frustrating. We all want to get the aviation industry moving again safely for both staff and passengers but when you have a government that are not willing to engage or even try something and rather bury their head in the sand it's crazy. There's a lot of us facing an uncertain future that is feeling everyday more uncertain when there is no engagement from the government on what can be done to get the industry moving again.

I understand that you're frustrated but there's literally nothing they can do without basically indirectly killing people in the process. Can't you see that there is no such thing as "geting the aviation industry moving again safely for both staff and passengers"? That's a lovely idea but it is simply impossible to do that. It's just not safe to fly large numbers of people right now - you might as well just type "let's kill thousands of older people" because what you are saying is essentially the same thing.

The vintners think the pubs should be open, the restauranteurs think the restaurants should be open, the aviation industry wants the aviation industry up and running, it's the same thing every time from business, "we need to control the pandemic but not at the expense of my own vested interest".

It's not safe at the moment, it probably won't be safe for most of next year, if we're lucky we might get things up and running again in 2022 but it might take longer, maybe five years to get back to where we were a year ago. That's the reality and the sooner the affected industries accept that and take action on that basis (which will include some very difficult decisions being made), the better we can manage this in the long run.

That said I absolutely feel for those affected by it all in terms of their jobs and livelihoods because they have done nothing wrong. It's a horrible situation, but it's also a mistake to think that there is some way it can be fixed in the short term other than by closing large sectors of the economy.

RocketRaccoon

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I understand that you're frustrated but there's literally nothing they can do without basically indirectly killing people in the process. Can't you see that there is no such thing as "geting the aviation industry moving again safely for both staff and passengers"? That's a lovely idea but it is simply impossible to do that. It's just not safe to fly large numbers of people right now - you might as well just type "let's kill thousands of older people" because what you are saying is essentially the same thing.

The vintners think the pubs should be open, the restauranteurs think the restaurants should be open, the aviation industry wants the aviation industry up and running, it's the same thing every time from business, "we need to control the pandemic but not at the expense of my own vested interest".

It's not safe at the moment, it probably won't be safe for most of next year, if we're lucky we might get things up and running again in 2022 but it might take longer, maybe five years to get back to where we were a year ago. That's the reality and the sooner the affected industries accept that and take action on that basis (which will include some very difficult decisions being made), the better we can manage this in the long run.

That said I absolutely feel for those affected by it all in terms of their jobs and livelihoods because they have done nothing wrong. It's a horrible situation, but it's also a mistake to think that there is some way it can be fixed in the short term other than by closing large sectors of the economy.

Can you do a bit of research and tell me how many people have contracted the virus on board an aircraft please?

Jack1985

44 cases of transmission out of 1.2 billion who travelled on aircraft prior to mask mandate according to IATA. The remarks about flying itself is unsafe is unfiltered waffle, off on a whim stuff without any substantiated fact.

I’d recommend they’d read the thread the last couple of months to get a grip on how this Gov failed Aviation and Tourism in this state.

Locker10a

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Can you do a bit of research and tell me how many people have contracted the virus on board an aircraft please?

Its nothing to do with actually picking it up on the flight itself, it’s the mass movement of people. As you know, we cant even go to another county right now, not because you’ll get the virus crossing the county border or by traveling on a train etc, but mixing and mingling of people is the problem.

circular flexing

Acosta wrote: »

The airports and airlines desperately wanted confirmation on pre flight tasting for over a month now, but our dithering politicians were not forthcoming. I guess that's what happens when we vote for overpaid caretakers instead of leaders. Everyone knew it was this week Ryanair were going to confirm as the summer schedule ends over the next week and a half and they needed to confirm the winter schedule.But nothing from the government.

I totally agree the government should act on the whim of a private airline that has made billions in profit over the years.

MadYaker

I can’t see how the Irish government are to blame for a virus pandemic shutting down international travel all over the world. Even if they started doing fast testing in the airports it wouldn’t make a difference. Why would anyone come here? Everything is closed. There’s not really any point attempting a holiday. I can’t get travel insurance, there’s no guarantee that any flight I book will actually go. All of Europe is basically shutting up shop now due increasing cases. Air travel as we knew it is over until the end of next year at the earliest.

circular flexing

circular flexing wrote: »

I totally agree the government should act on the whim of a private airline that has made billions in profit over the years.

Critical thinking isn't your strongest suit.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

All of Europe is basically shutting up shop now due increasing cases. Air travel as we knew it is over until the end of next year at the earliest.

This is not correct. Travel to the British Isles including Ireland is more affected than the rest of Europe.*
*specific risk areas excluded.

Dublinflyer

I don't think it has anything to do with the risk of catching it in an airport or on board a plane, well not completely anyway. People can take their own precautions while traveling but why would you want to go anywhere right now. Most countries have lots of restrictions in place that are shifting on an almost daily basis, the French have pretty much closed a lot of cities at night with a curfew. You can book a flight somewhere and the infections spike at your destination and restrictions come into place at short notice. Even if you had booked a trip in Ireland last month for this week that's off now with the restrictions. The US is closed and that won't be changing any time soon, especially if the result of the election sees the same people running the show.

So while I agree 100% that aviation has been hung out to dry on this and suffering severe damage until the core issue of control of the virus and some stability is restored generally they can put all the testing in place in airports but people just won't want to travel. Most people have decided they will not be travelling until next year and lets be honest with all the people who have lost their jobs over this most can't afford to travel and just want to keep a roof over their heads right now.

Locker10a

MadYaker wrote: »

I can’t see how the Irish government are to blame for a virus pandemic shutting down international travel all over the world. Even if they started doing fast testing in the airports it wouldn’t make a difference. Why would anyone come here? Everything is closed. There’s not really any point attempting a holiday. I can’t get travel insurance, there’s no guarantee that any flight I book will actually go. All of Europe is basically shutting up shop now due increasing cases. Air travel as we knew it is over until the end of next year at the earliest.

Sadly this is true, even domestic travel (without restrictions) in Europe and the US is way down, demand has simply fallen through the floor. It’s devastating for the industry. Hopefully governments will keep the industry on life support to retain jobs at least until things begin to improve

Cosmo Kramer

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Can you do a bit of research and tell me how many people have contracted the virus on board an aircraft please?

That's the same argument as the vintners were making (hardly any people have contracted the virus in pubs) but statistically it's impossible to pinpoint where exactly each individual case was contracted or sourced from. People are getting sick at home but the virus isn't magically turning up there, it's being brought in from places where the public are gathering - be it sports stadiums, bars, restaurants, airports, shopping centres or wherever.

How to we know this? Because when we shut everything down earlier this year we quickly controlled the spread of the virus. What happened when we loosened the restrictions under heavy pressure from business - the virus exploded again to the point we're now at. And that's before you take into account the particular impact aviation and tourism has in terms of introducing and mixing people across different regions and countries.

There is absolutely no argument that can be made to demonstrate that reintroducing mass transit of people would be anything other than a national and international disaster at present. That's terrible for those whose livelihoods depend on it, but that's unfortunately where we're at. I would like nothing more than to get back to being a regular flyer, travelling the continent and helping to fund the aviation industry in the process. But it's just not safe at the moment.

RocketRaccoon

Locker10a wrote: »

Sadly this is true, even domestic travel (without restrictions) in Europe and the US is way down, demand has simply fallen through the floor. It’s devastating for the industry. Hopefully governments will keep the industry on life support to retain jobs at least until things begin to improve

To retain jobs??? Do you know how many people have already lost their jobs since this started?

Cosmo Kramer

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

To retain jobs??? Do you know how many people have already lost their jobs since this started?

Only a fraction of the number that will have lost them by the time all this is done with. That's the sad reality - the conversation needs to change from saving jobs that can't be saved to the funding of the future recovery of the economy so that new jobs can be created down the line.

Cookiemunster

Locker10a wrote: »

Its nothing to do with actually picking it up on the flight itself, it’s the mass movement of people. As you know, we cant even go to another county right now, not because you’ll get the virus crossing the county border or by traveling on a train etc, but mixing and mingling of people is the problem.

Wrong. We're advised not to travel to another country. There is no restriction.

MadYaker

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Wrong. We're advised not to travel to another country. There is no restriction.

:rolleyes:

RocketRaccoon

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Only a fraction of the number that will have lost them by the time all this is done with. That's the sad reality - the conversation needs to change from saving jobs that can't be saved to the funding of the future recovery of the economy so that new jobs can be created down the line.

You're quite clearly absolutely clueless.

Tenger

Jack1985 wrote: »

44 cases of transmission out of 1.2 million who travelled on aircraft prior to mask mandate according to IATA. The remarks about flying itself is unsafe is unfiltered waffle, off on a whim stuff without any substantiated fact.
......................

I saw this IATA graphic appearing on my social media over the last week. I'm sure the data is correct.
However I would concur that transmission on the actual aircraft isn't the danger, the danger is infection at origin, and then transmission after arrival at destination.
The only barrier to thus is mandatory quarantine combined with testing upon arrival. (Iceland, Hong Kong, Australia, China etc already doing this)

I would be in favour of such measures here. But I don't know if that would actually help the Irish travel/tourism sector.


And think back to the slump in aviation after 9/11, there was the initial wave of closures and job losses with a second wave 18-24 months later as the surviving airlines slimmed down to maximise revenue and thus retain their chances of survival.
(EG. the much lauded B757 operation across the Atlantic only really commenced regularly by Continental in the mid 2000s)

Blut2

The Irish government holds responsibility here because they've inflicted the strictest, most arbitrary, least logical measures on the aviation sector of any country in Europe. Other European countries opened for EU tourism from the start of June (Croatia and Italy) or by mid/late June (almost everywhere else). Ireland however has maintained travel warnings, has advised against travel, has maintained restrictions on tourist attractions/the hospitality industry h ere, and has constantly changed its position.

The idea that nobody is willing to travel right now is nonsense. Croatia, a country of similar size to Ireland, in August had its tourism numbers at 70% of last years [1] - over 1 million tourists arrived a week in that month alone. Ryanair in August flew 7 million passengers around Europe [2]. etc. The tourism industry was undoubtedly struggling in Europe overall, but in most countries it actually opened - unlike Ireland.

And, what makes it even more galling, is the countries that opened for tourism suffered no ill effects from it. Again for example Croatia and Italy both have lower covid rates than Ireland currently, despite their tourism and travel industries suffering far, far less this year.

Thats why the Irish government is to blame - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to their policies.


[1]https://www.croatiaweek.com/over-1-million-tourists-visit-croatia-so-far-in-august-70-of-last-years-numbers/
[2]https://simpleflying.com/ryanairs-traffic-has-already-recovered-by-half/

Acosta

circular flexing wrote: »

I totally agree the government should act on the whim of a private airline that has made billions in profit over the years.

It's not just about airlines and airports making money(not that they are at the moment). It's about the many staff that work for them and people that are employed for companies that are connected to the aviation industry. And of course all the businesses that rely on aviation connectivity for their operation. Not to mention the tourism industry in Ireland.

Locker10a

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Wrong. We're advised not to travel to another country. There is no restriction.

Like it or not, that’s not how the majority of people see it, most people, I’d say +90% are compliant with the “recommendation” so it’s moot point, the demand does not exist right now

Locker10a

Blut2 wrote: »

The Irish government holds responsibility here because they've inflicted the strictest, most arbitrary, least logical measures on the aviation sector of any country in Europe. Other European countries opened for EU tourism from the start of June (Croatia and Italy) or by mid/late June (almost everywhere else). Ireland however has maintained travel warnings, has advised against travel, has maintained restrictions on tourist attractions/the hospitality industry h ere, and has constantly changed its position.

The idea that nobody is willing to travel right now is nonsense. Croatia, a country of similar size to Ireland, in August had its tourism numbers at 70% of last years [1] - over 1 million tourists arrived a week in that month alone. Ryanair in August flew 7 million passengers around Europe [2]. etc. The tourism industry was undoubtedly struggling in Europe overall, but in most countries it actually opened - unlike Ireland.

And, what makes it even more galling, is the countries that opened for tourism suffered no ill effects from it. Again for example Croatia and Italy both have lower covid rates than Ireland currently, despite their tourism and travel industries suffering far, far less this year.

Thats why the Irish government is to blame - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to their policies.


[1]https://www.croatiaweek.com/over-1-million-tourists-visit-croatia-so-far-in-august-70-of-last-years-numbers/
[2]https://simpleflying.com/ryanairs-traffic-has-already-recovered-by-half/

Lol, can you image the public outrage if Ireland opened up to tourists this year! There was virtually no tourists this year and there was still articles about flights arriving from here and there and how it was a disgrace. Tourists don’t elect our representatives, locals do, so who’ll government listen to ?

Locker10a

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

To retain jobs??? Do you know how many people have already lost their jobs since this started?

No, I don’t know an exact figure all I know is I am one of them

Cookiemunster

Locker10a wrote: »

Like it or not, that’s not how the majority of people see it, most people, I’d say +90% are compliant with the “recommendation” so it’s moot point, the demand does not exist right now

Well you stated that we can't go to any other country. That statement was unquestionably wrong. The government has admitted in the High Court that it is nothing more than a recommendation.

Demand doesn't exist because of the ridiculous Irish government position of passing off a recommendation as a law. Just looking at travel in Europe shows that while demand is lower, it is definitely still there.

Locker10a

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Well you stated that we can't go to any other country. That statement was unquestionably wrong. The government has admitted in the High Court that it is nothing more than a recommendation.

Demand doesn't exist because of the ridiculous Irish government position of passing off a recommendation as a law. Just looking at travel in Europe shows that while demand is lower, it is definitely still there.

I had actually said county, as in county Mayo, county Kildare etc

circular flexing

Blut2 wrote: »

And, what makes it even more galling, is the countries that opened for tourism suffered no ill effects from it. Again for example Croatia and Italy both have lower covid rates than Ireland currently, despite their tourism and travel industries suffering far, far less this year.

While Croatia has lower case counts, it is also testing way less than Ireland and has a higher positivity rate. Neither are good indicators.

MadYaker

People in mainland Europe can drive so obviously there will be more holiday travel happening there. If I lived in Germany under current conditions I’d drive down to Spain or Italy long before I’d fly to Ireland for a holiday. It’s too unpredictable with flights being cancelled and restrictions being ramped up and down willy nilly. If you drive and it doesn’t work out you can just turn around and go home you’re not risking being stranded.

Blut2

circular flexing wrote: »

While Croatia has lower case counts, it is also testing way less than Ireland and has a higher positivity rate. Neither are good indicators.

Croatia has a population of 4.1million, and has had 334 confirmed corona deaths - 82 per million.

Ireland has a population of 4.9millioon, and has had 1,835 confirmed corona deaths - 378 per million.

Croatia has undoubtedly handled the crisis far, far better than Ireland. And Croatia opened its borders to tourism in June, and had a full tourist season this summer - much to the benefit of hundreds of thousands of people's jobs and livelihoods in aviation, transport and tourism.

And Croatia is just one example I picked because they're a comparable size to Ireland - there are plenty of other countries who've had a similar experience this summer.

It just completely shows the absolute idiocy of the Irish government's policies on tourism/aviation. As I said, the figures are very clear at this stage - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, in Ireland than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to Irish governmental policies.