Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

circular flexing

Blut2 wrote: »

Croatia has a population of 4.1million, and has had 334 confirmed corona deaths - 82 per million.

Ireland has a population of 4.9millioon, and has had 1,835 confirmed corona deaths - 378 per million.

Croatia has undoubtedly handled the crisis far, far better than Ireland. And Croatia opened its borders to tourism in June, and had a full tourist season this summer - much to the benefit of hundreds of thousands of people's jobs and livelihoods in aviation, transport and tourism.

And Croatia is just one example I picked because they're a comparable size to Ireland - there are plenty of other countries who've had a similar experience this summer.

It just completely shows the absolute idiocy of the Irish government's policies on tourism/aviation. As I said, the figures are very clear at this stage - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, in Ireland than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to Irish governmental policies.

Death rate is a pretty meaningless statistic when it comes to tourism.

Inquitus

Blut2 wrote: »

It just completely shows the absolute idiocy of the Irish government's policies on tourism/aviation. As I said, the figures are very clear at this stage - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, in Ireland than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to Irish governmental policies.

Our Covid GDP decline compares favourably with every EU country, the economic damage is rather limited to a few sectors of the economy, and they are not shy about complaining about it.

Mebuntu

Over the years we've had many Ministers for Transport - mostly useless with our airlines being successful despite them.

The biggest problem the industry faces now is that we now have for the first time ever a Minister Against Transport so it's not just Covid-19 to fight against. Long battle ahead.

kona

Mebuntu wrote: »

Over the years we've had many Ministers for Transport - mostly useless with our airlines being successful despite them.

The biggest problem the industry faces now is that we now have for the first time ever a Minister Against Transport so it's not just Covid-19 to fight against. Long battle ahead.

Pretty accurate, any future plans of growth back to 2019 levels will be interfered with by the green agenda, not a hope they are going to let aviation grow to those levels after they have gotten such a dramatic cut back for free.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Our Covid GDP decline compares favourably with every EU country, the economic damage is rather limited to a few sectors of the economy, and they are not shy about complaining about it.

that is alternative facts - GDP is inflated through the activities of multi-nationals and they don't put food on the table for most Irish people. The software and internet companies are just funneling money through Ireland inflating GDP without benefiting Ireland.

Blut2

circular flexing wrote: »

Death rate is a pretty meaningless statistic when it comes to tourism.

Its by far the best metric for assessing how a country has dealt with covid - how many of its citizens have died. And in the context of this thread it completely disproves your suggestion that Croatia has worse indicators than Ireland as a result of it being open for tourism.

Inquitus wrote: »

Our Covid GDP decline compares favourably with every EU country, the economic damage is rather limited to a few sectors of the economy, and they are not shy about complaining about it.

Our GDP is artificially inflated by gigantic US MNCs. Unemployment and job losses are far more relevant metrics when assessing the damage done to the population. And in that Ireland is doing very poorly. As of this week out of a private sector working population of 2 million on January 1st this year we have 500,000 on the PUP and 210,000 on the dole - about 35% of our workforce. And climbing rapidly.

And a large number of those are from the 180,000 employed in tourism and 40,000 in aviation pre-corona.

When other similar sized European countries had upwards of a million tourists arriving a week this summer, spending money and supporting jobs, with no apparently corona risk, and Ireland had essentially none all summer, its very easy to see why Irish governmental policy is directly responsible for this.

MadYaker

Deleted User wrote: »

that is alternative facts - GDP is inflated through the activities of multi-nationals and they don't put food on the table for most Irish people. The software and internet companies are just funneling money through Ireland inflating GDP without benefiting Ireland.

So they don't pay any salaries? We're all working for free are we, I wonder whats that in my bank acc so? Such nonsense.

titan18

Blut2 wrote: »

Croatia has a population of 4.1million, and has had 334 confirmed corona deaths - 82 per million.

Ireland has a population of 4.9millioon, and has had 1,835 confirmed corona deaths - 378 per million.

Croatia has undoubtedly handled the crisis far, far better than Ireland. And Croatia opened its borders to tourism in June, and had a full tourist season this summer - much to the benefit of hundreds of thousands of people's jobs and livelihoods in aviation, transport and tourism.

And Croatia is just one example I picked because they're a comparable size to Ireland - there are plenty of other countries who've had a similar experience this summer.

It just completely shows the absolute idiocy of the Irish government's policies on tourism/aviation. As I said, the figures are very clear at this stage - we've had more economic damage, for less public health result, in Ireland than anywhere else in Europe. Which is entirely self-inflicted, and down to Irish governmental policies.

Croatia has done 92k test per 1m people. Ireland has done 277k. We're testing 3 times as much as them and have less than twice the cases per 1m people (9133 vs 5499). Personally, I'd rather be in our situation there.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

So they don't pay any salaries? We're all working for free are we, I wonder whats that in my bank acc so? Such nonsense.

Using inflated Irish GDP as a means of claiming that Ireland has it better than the rest of the world is pure nonsense. Income tax receipts as a justification is only very slightly better but not much a large proportion of the population pay very little income tax.

MadYaker

Deleted User wrote: »

Using inflated Irish GDP as a means of claiming that Ireland has it better than the rest of the world is pure nonsense. Income tax receipts as a justification is only very slightly better but not much a large proportion of the population pay very little income tax.

Everybody that works for a USMNC pays income tax a lots of it. Tourism and travel are in the doldrums for the foreseeable. We'd be a lot worse off if we didn't have them keeping people in jobs right now.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

Everybody that works for a USMNC pays income tax a lots of it. Tourism and travel are in the doldrums for the foreseeable. We'd be a lot worse off if we didn't have them keeping people in jobs right now.

You're determined to drag this thread off-topic from Aviation related issues with inaccurate whataboutery.
Dragging it back on topic...I'm flying inbound tomorrow so long as the Republic of Ireland isn't added this evening to the list of risk areas maintained by a respected Health Institute which many EU Countries rely upon. I am disregarding guidance presented as "Law" coming from the Irish Government.
Anyone relying on the Irish Government for guidance would be cancelling their trip.

DFB BOY

Friend of mine works security in T1 and said on average they have between 1,000 and 2,500 departing passengers each day,majority of shops have closed,no smoking area airside anymore and considering they used to do anywhere between 8,000 and 10,000 pax in the first wave (03.30 - 08.00) its like a ghost town.He also mentioned that a inbound Ethiad flight from Abu Dhabi on Monday only had 4 pax on it,1 in business,3 in economy and 12 people going outbound on it,suppose cargo had a reason for the flight operating at all.

MadYaker

What will happen to Dublin airport over the next 12 - 18 months if this continues? Will they just close all the duty free and lay off staff until there's just the bare bones and then wait for travel to pick up again?

DFB BOY

MadYaker wrote: »

What will happen to Dublin airport over the next 12 - 18 months if this continues? Will they just close all the duty free and lay off staff until there's just the bare bones and then wait for travel to pick up again?

As far as i know with what he told me,there was an expression of interest put out for voluntary redundancy,career breaks and reduced working hours across the different sections in the airport campus which many have taken up especially older staff nearing retirement age,my friend is working 80% of his roster thus 80% pay which is guranteed till at least Jan 21 with a view to getting the staff who are remaining back up to 100% so time will tell.

Blut2

titan18 wrote: »

Croatia has done 92k test per 1m people. Ireland has done 277k. We're testing 3 times as much as them and have less than twice the cases per 1m people (9133 vs 5499). Personally, I'd rather be in our situation there.

Thats nonsense. You'd rather the 500% the number of deaths per capita Ireland has had over Croatia? I'd say the friends and family of those 1,500 extra deaths we've had in Ireland would disagree pretty heavily with you.

Here is the likely scenario: A Citizen from an EU country gets it in their head that they want to visit Ireland. They visit the offical E.U. website for the response to the pandemic optimistically called "re-open EU"; https://reopen.europa.eu/en/map/IRL/2002
They put in Ireland as their preferred destination and come to this webpage:
https://reopen.europa.eu/en/map/IRL/2002

Not one piece of information leads them to believe that they will be able to do anything worthwhile in Ireland should they visit. They will believe they must self-isolate, those who are receiving them will not be able to receive them in to their home, they cannot share an indoor space with anyone.
The hyperlinks all lead to gov.ie pages.
The Irish Government is still leading absolutely everybody to believe that travel to Ireland is prohibited
There is not much chance of anyone who is misled by this official website linking to gov.ie will book a flight to Ireland and yet we have people here kicking Aer Lingus and Ryanair for reducing services in to Ireland.

bk

But realistically, even if they ignored all that haphaphap, why would they want to come here?

- Pubs are closed
- Restaurants are closed
- Most tourist sites and attractions are closed
- They aren't suppose to travel outside the county they arrive in.

Fly to Ireland and sit in a hotel and do nothing?

And much the same for people flying out of Ireland. Even if the government restrictions are only advisory, why would you want to go on holidays now? When most places you might go have various restrictions that are changing all the time. Doesn't sound like it would make for a fun holiday.

I know it is very tough at the moment and you want someone to blame for the current situation, it is only natural. But I do think folks are overestimating how much impact the government have on this either way. The reality is we are in the middle of a global pandemic, there are restrictions all over Europe and quickly changing and I'd say most people simply don't want to holiday in the middle of all this.

titan18

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats nonsense. You'd rather the 500% the number of deaths per capita Ireland has had over Croatia? I'd say the friends and family of those 1,500 extra deaths we've had in Ireland would disagree pretty heavily with you.

I'm not sure how Croatia calculate their death statistics, but ours are largely overinflated as most acknowledge so that gap is likely smaller than it is.

Cases wise, we're arguably doing better considering out the amount of tests we can do

kona

bk wrote: »

But realistically, even if they ignored all that haphaphap, why would they want to come here?

- Pubs are closed
- Restaurants are closed
- Most tourist sites and attractions are closed
- They aren't suppose to travel outside the county they arrive in.

Fly to Ireland and sit in a hotel and do nothing?

And much the same for people flying out of Ireland. Even if the government restrictions are only advisory, why would you want to go on holidays now? When most places you might go have various restrictions that are changing all the time. Doesn't sound like it would make for a fun holiday.

I know it is very tough at the moment and you want someone to blame for the current situation, it is only natural. But I do think folks are overestimating how much impact the government have on this either way. The reality is we are in the middle of a global pandemic, there are restrictions all over Europe and quickly changing and I'd say most people simply don't want to holiday in the middle of all this.

What should happen is, if the government believe aviation is essential to irelands recovery economically in the future, then they should decide what the most essential skills which need to be protected and basically pick up the tab.

Aviation and the essential skills involved are not something that comes back when you flip a switch.

bk

kona wrote: »

What should happen is, if the government believe aviation is essential to irelands recovery economically in the future, then they should decide what the most essential skills which need to be protected and basically pick up the tab.

Aviation and the essential skills involved are not something that comes back when you flip a switch.

Yes, I agree, that is totally fair. And for a small island like Ireland, it is very important.

The government are currently pumping hundreds of millions into the public transport companies (DB/BE/IR/GA/Luas), even giving some support to the private coach companies, to keep them going with passenger numbers way down.

They should do similar for Aviation. Though I wonder if the airlines are really asking for it. They seem more focused on wanting things open, then asking for support.

I do assume the government will keep the airports going, though perhaps at a much reduced level.

titan18

kona wrote: »

What should happen is, if the government believe aviation is essential to irelands recovery economically in the future, then they should decide what the most essential skills which need to be protected and basically pick up the tab.

Aviation and the essential skills involved are not something that comes back when you flip a switch.

Should be gaining some level of ownership to do that imo. Not sure if either airline will want that

Inquitus

kona wrote: »

Aviation and the essential skills involved are not something that comes back when you flip a switch.

Surely that's the Airlines problem not the Governments? If they want to get back in business once Covid passes, they need to make sure they keep their pilots etc. current enough to support that activity.

Blut2

bk wrote: »

And much the same for people flying out of Ireland. Even if the government restrictions are only advisory, why would you want to go on holidays now? When most places you might go have various restrictions that are changing all the time. Doesn't sound like it would make for a fun holiday.

I know it is very tough at the moment and you want someone to blame for the current situation, it is only natural. But I do think folks are overestimating how much impact the government have on this either way. The reality is we are in the middle of a global pandemic, there are restrictions all over Europe and quickly changing and I'd say most people simply don't want to holiday in the middle of all this.

This theory been proven totally wrong though. Ryanair flew 50% of last year's numbers in August, over 7 million passengers. Croatia in August had 70% as many tourists as last year - over 1 million people arriving a week. There definitely is, and has been all summer, demand out there. And the countries that moved to take advantage of it have done no worse than Ireland in corona numbers (they're mostly doing better, in fact) - Italy, Croatia, Greece etc.

Thats why people from the aviation and tourism sectors are blaming the government for its unclear, illogical, anti-travel policies. And for the government's lack of financial support for the industries affected, as it has insisted on continuing to pursue these harmful policies.

kona

Inquitus wrote: »

Surely that's the Airlines problem not the Governments? If they want to get back in business once Covid passes, they need to make sure they keep their pilots etc. current enough to support that activity.

Well, it will quickley become the governments problem, being so reliant on FDI, also being a island, the landbridge with the uk is gone fairly shortley.
Not forgetting tbat aviation itself is worth billions in the country, I think we are home to 4 of the top 5 lease companies, the EI reg has 1000s of aircraft, the buggest airline in europe in based here and the other is part of one of the biggest airline groups.

If things get really bad they wont be able to click their fingers and have 5 widebody aircraft a day going to china either.

MadYaker

Blut2 wrote: »

This theory been proven totally wrong though. Ryanair flew 50% of last year's numbers in August, over 7 million passengers. Croatia in August had 70% as many tourists as last year - over 1 million people arriving a week. There definitely is, and has been all summer, demand out there. And the countries that moved to take advantage of it have done no worse than Ireland in corona numbers (they're mostly doing better, in fact) - Italy, Croatia, Greece etc.

Thats why people from the aviation and tourism sectors are blaming the government for its unclear, illogical, anti-travel policies. And for the government's lack of financial support for the industries affected, as it has insisted on continuing to pursue these harmful policies.

So you think if the Irish gov suddenly cancelled all travel related restrictions it would return to normal just like that? People won’t travel regardless for reasons already explained.

Jack1985

There is a direct correlation between a prohibition on travel and the demand for it.

Like it’s easy to type away behind your keyboard giving off statements when you haven’t a bull’s notion of what your talking about, not having seen the demand trajectory’s that took off in late May-June in Ireland for Travel when both Aer Lingus and Ryanair attempted to have some sort of a season. It all failed when Gov discouraged all travel without scientific basis.

Right now, with a resurgence in cases in Europe is there sufficient demand for a full-blown return of travel? Absolutely not - Is there demand to return between 25-40% of previous schedules within Europe? Yes.

The point is that Irish Aviation was never afforded an opportunity to begin a recovery, to even plan a recovery. It was never afforded the opportunity to have any sort of a meaningful July/August operation to countries that were safer than here in Ireland.

Skip back to July when Europe opened, once quarantine was removed to Portugal, Spain and Greece and with no quarantine on return to the UK, traffic vols surged with 2019 demand noted and actually exceed on some routes. The response usually is, well look at what happened now with borders open - It's a nonsense, the same nonsense peddled that it's spread on aircraft. In fact, on an aircraft you have a 1 in 27 million chance of contracting Covid-19.

It is incumbent on Governments to have effective Track and Tracing; linking of apps to share exposure data between countries to keep a hold on the virus. For a country that was essentially closed to Air Travel all Summer we have some surge, out ranking vastly Germany a country that encouraged travel in July and many others that were open.

Look with improved variations of testing, this gets easier – But essentially this is Ireland’s attitude summed up;

Travel? No.

Testing at Airports (Proposed in July)? No yet we are looking into it – We know better than the Europeans.

Contact-Tracing? Half-arsed attempt will do.

Scapegoat for it all? Travel.

circular flexing

Jack1985 wrote: »

In fact, on an aircraft you have a 1 in 27 million chance of contracting Covid-19.

I'm not disputing the fact that aircraft themselves are probably safe though mask or no mask it's still a long time to spend in close contact with potentially infected people. The real risk in my view is getting to/from airport on both sides and generally having more contacts when on holiday.



For example, when I'm at home, I go shopping once a week and I might get a takeaway every couple of weeks. Outside of that I spend most of my time in a 5km radius around my house, normally outside walking and biking. I haven't seen anyone outside my close family in 6 months and I haven't dined in a restaurant or been to the pub in the same time. I would find it very hard to replicate that pattern while on holiday and would think most people wouldn't go on holiday to sit in the hotel/airbnb for the whole stay.

Testing at Airports (Proposed in July)? No yet we are looking into it – We know better than the Europeans.

Testing can give false positives and negatives and I would honestly question spending government resources supporting non-essential travel, particularly outbound.

3xh

BZ wrote: »

The government are squarely to blame for this, they have made no effort whatsoever for the aviation industry over the last 6 months. They mention testing at airports for the last few months but nothing has come of it, what have they been doing! The repercussions of this to aviation industry are going to be grim but also the likes of supporting industries and of course the hospitality and tourism sector.

It’s telling that our Minister for Transport is not only a Green TD but their official title is Minister for Climate Action, Communication Networks and Transport.

Says it all.

circular flexing

Jack1985 wrote: »

Skip back to July when Europe opened, once quarantine was removed to Portugal, Spain and Greece and with no quarantine on return to the UK

And ISTR English residents having to scramble home from Spain and France when the government there suddenly changed the quarantine advice. Stories around that would definitely put people off traveling.

ProfessorPlum

Jack1985 wrote: »

In fact, on an aircraft you have a 1 in 27 million chance of contracting Covid-19.
.

I agree with some of what you say, but the idea that you have a 1 in 27 million chance of contracting COVID on a flight is nonsense, and really takes from the message that aircraft are in fact a relatively safe mode of transport, because it is demonstrably false, wildly inaccurate, and I think damages the message our industry is trying to deliver.