Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Jack1985

Irish Steve wrote: »

... The worry is that the number of occupied hospital beds is going stratospheric, and we're not really in to the worst that could be happening...

Here's a graph of ICU Occupancy rates in Europe right now

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1312879616265195520?s=20

Ireland had one of the harshest views on travel - It done nothing to prevent growth in cases we essentially locked down earlier this year to prevent an ICU overrun - As above 27 are in ICU with a capacity of 278 ICU beds.

NPHET is proposing this, the only country following such a path is Israel which was in a serious situation a few months ago - Nowhere near where we are now. I'm questioning this a lot more now as should everyone, NPHET have just sent a country to bed full of despair and uncertainty.

https://twitter.com/willsheehan68/status/1312856106553749504?s=20

bk

Jack1985 wrote: »

Here's a graph of ICU Occupancy rates in Europe right now

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1312879616265195520?s=20

Well that is a rather idiotic graph to be showing, since it doesn't take into account the number of ICU and intensive care beds each country has *

Obviously if you have more ICU beds per million, then you can sustain more cases in ICU per million compared to another country.

* Unless you want to make the point that we don't have enough ICU beds in general, which is absolutely true, we should be investing far more in frontline medical care.

Jack1985 wrote: »

Ireland had one of the harshest views on travel - It done nothing to prevent growth in cases we essentially locked down earlier this year to prevent an ICU overrun - As above 27 are in ICU with a capacity of 278 ICU beds.

Which doesn't take into account the number of patients in ICU without Covid19.

As of yesterday there are 39 free ICU beds. At the current rate of growth, ICU would be full in two, max three weeks.

Jack1985 wrote: »

NPHET is proposing this, the only country following such a path is Israel which was in a serious situation a few months ago - Nowhere near where we are now. I'm questioning this a lot more now as should everyone, NPHET have just sent a country to bed full of despair and uncertainty.

https://twitter.com/willsheehan68/status/1312856106553749504?s=20

I'm afraid the rest of Europe is only a few weeks behind doing the same.

For example 1/3rd of the UK is already in lockdown, only a matter of time before the rest is too and most of Europe will follow. The trends are there unfortunately.

PommieBast

3xh wrote: »

If not by the implementation of the EU traffic light system, then shortly after I suspect they will use the €5 20 minute saliva test and accept the higher fallibility rate.

I've heard that at Helsinki airport they trained sniffer dogs to detect Covid. Not sure how that works out as an amortised per-person cost though..

Masala

What will Stage 5 mean to airlines and airports...?.

Are we going to see aircraft parked up again and flights cancelled for the 4 weeks

ProfessorPlum

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1313018363598209024?s=21

This is a hugely important metric when talking about ICU occupancy.

We are well behind the drag curve when it comes to ICU capacity. There is no wiggle room. Ireland has 6.5 ICU beds per 100,000. Germany has over 29. Apples and oranges.

Tenzor07

PommieBast wrote: »

I've heard that at Helsinki airport they trained sniffer dogs to detect Covid. Not sure how that works out as an amortised per-person cost though..

One Dog biscuit per passenger, and a tin of Pedigree Chum for an Aer Lingus flight, and a half a tin of Lidl "premium Dog chow" for Ryanair...

Blut2

Irish Steve wrote: »

Given where NEPHET are looking to go, it's moot, in that no one will be going outside 5Km for the next month if their plan is agreed, though I can see some significant pushback from TD's when they start to discuss it in detail.

The worry is that the number of occupied hospital beds is going stratospheric, and we're not really in to the worst that could be happening.

If we do actually move to a level 5 lockdown shortly if anything that will inspire more people to fly over the next few weeks. The airport won't be closed, flights will still be flying (and very cheap ones at that), and as the courts found last week the travel guidance is only advisory.

Theres nothing to stop people who're WFHing, or who have holiday leave built up, flying to countries with lower infection rates (and no lockdowns). I know I'll probably head to the Mediterranean for 2 weeks at least for some autumn sun. Theres no reason to stay in Ireland fully locked down, in terrible weather, if you don't have to.

trellheim

Theres no reason to stay in Ireland fully locked down, in terrible weather, if you don't have to.

There's no law stopping you leaving or coming back apart from filling out the locator on return, true.

That's not to say there's no reason to stay locked down. You can choose to ignore the reasons but that doesn't stop them existing.

Captain_Crash

Blut2 wrote: »

Theres nothing to stop people who're WFHing, or who have holiday leave built up, flying to countries with lower infection rates (and no lockdowns). I know I'll probably head to the Mediterranean for 2 weeks at least for some autumn sun. Theres no reason to stay in Ireland fully locked down, in terrible weather, if you don't have to.

I know multiple people from Germany/Spain/Poland etc who went home during the summer and are yet to come back. Our company support the approach and don't care where we work from, so long as we work!

HTCOne

Going straight from level 2 to level 5 would have to call the competence of NPHET itself into question. The whole point of the scale allegedly is so we can “live with the virus”, and move up and down the scale locally as and when required. It allows businesses to plan for the short term. By going straight from 2 to 5, any business selling perishables (eg restaurants) will just have to dump their stock. If the whole country goes straight to 5 now, heads should roll on NPHET, as it means either we delayed going to stages 3 or 4 when needed, and lives were likely lost unnecessarily as a result, or we are totally over-reacting and livelihoods will be lost unnecessarily.

Regarding travel, as has already been said there is no legal restrictions on doing so, or even to quarantine on return to Ireland, you just need to fill out the form. Another example of how half arsed and disorganised things have been since FF got back at the helm; it’s just like 08-11 all over again!

Blut2

trellheim wrote: »

There's no law stopping you leaving or coming back apart from filling out the locator on return, true.

That's not to say there's no reason to stay locked down. You can choose to ignore the reasons but that doesn't stop them existing.

If I decide to spend 2 weeks living in an airbnb in Greece (or anywhere else in Europe with a significantly lower covid incidence than Ireland), and then come back, my chances of infecting the community in Ireland are lower than if I stay here for those same two weeks.

So no, there really is no reason to stay locked down here - personal (being under potentially Europe's only full lockdown), professional (if you're WFHing), or community health wise.

Dublinflyer

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I know multiple people from Germany/Spain/Poland etc who went home during the summer and are yet to come back. Our company support the approach and don't care where we work from, so long as we work!

That is going to cause some serious tax complications if they are out of their office country for more than around 180 days in a year. Google have just instructed their staff to come back to Ireland for that very reason.

trellheim

If I decide to spend 2 weeks living in an airbnb in Greece (or anywhere else in Europe with a significantly lower covid incidence than Ireland), and then come back, my chances of infecting the community in Ireland are lower than if I stay here for those same two weeks.

So no, there really is no reason to stay locked down here - personal (being under potentially Europe's only full lockdown), professional (if you're WFHing), or community health wise.

blah blah blah insert some specious reason that justifiies it to YOU . Like I said "That's not to say there's no reason to stay locked down. You can choose to ignore the reasons but that doesn't stop them existing."

We're on a stay in your county recommendation right now, I'm assuming you are in Dublin. You don't get to do blanket predictions of your own. That's the end of my debate with you cos in your head its ok

Captain_Crash

Dublinflyer wrote: »

That is going to cause some serious tax complications if they are out of their office country for more than around 180 days in a year. Google have just instructed their staff to come back to Ireland for that very reason.

Maybe it will, we're not a small outfit so I'd imagine this has been thought of and measures put in place for those on the continent. But I'm not one of them so couldn't tell you. We could have done a Google for all I know.

Blut2

trellheim wrote: »

blah blah blah insert some specious reason that justifiies it to YOU . Like I said "That's not to say there's no reason to stay locked down. You can choose to ignore the reasons but that doesn't stop them existing."

We're on a stay in your county recommendation right now, I'm assuming you are in Dublin. You don't get to do blanket predictions of your own. That's the end of my debate with you cos in your head its ok

Greece and Italy (to take two examples) currently have regions with 1/10th the covid incidence of Dublin. Someone being at lower risk of catching covid while there, and subsequently a lower risk of spreading covid back in their community after time spent there instead of in Dublin, isn't a belief based on "some specious reason". Its purely, verifiably, mathematical.

If you don't like the figures because they disagree with your blinkered world view thats on you - but the maths don't lie. Traveling to many, many other regions in Europe is safer right now than staying in Dublin (or the border counties). For both you as an individual, and for the wider community at large in Ireland.

Tenzor07

Ah Shannon, it's a very quiet airport at the best of times with only the odd passing U.S troop carrier to bring some life to the airport... I wonder how much longer it can last?


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1005/1169638-shannon-airport/

SIPTU are to ballot shannon airport staff in an ongoing dispute over hours and payment

Link dumping is not appreciated if there is nothing to explain what the link is about, which was the case here, your comment about Shannon was click bait and completely unrelated to the subject of the link posted.

Jack1985

It seems the only thing mute is Level 5, Gov seem to have had it with NPHET.

Calina

Blut2 wrote: »

Greece and Italy (to take two examples) currently have regions with 1/10th the covid incidence of Dublin. Someone being at lower risk of catching covid while there, and subsequently a lower risk of spreading covid back in their community after time spent there instead of in Dublin, isn't a belief based on "some specious reason". Its purely, verifiably, mathematical.

If you don't like the figures because they disagree with your blinkered world view thats on you - but the maths don't lie. Traveling to many, many other regions in Europe is safer right now than staying in Dublin (or the border counties). For both you as an individual, and for the wider community at large in Ireland.

Other countries won't want you arriving into them for much longer. It isn't just about Irish regulations.

ProfessorPlum

Jack1985 wrote: »

It seems the only thing mute is Level 5, Gov seem to have had it with NPHET.

If people don’t seriously cop the f**k on, we’ll be there soon enough.

Inquitus

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

If people don’t seriously cop the f**k on, we’ll be there soon enough.

Aye rather than a short sharp lockdown now, we could be sleep walking into a longer one in the runup to Christmas. I don't see people's attitudes changing.

It is worth nothing the majority favour more lockdown measures not less. At least according to the ESRI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/most-people-want-more-not-fewer-restrictions-survey-shows-esri-expert-1.4372433

ProfessorPlum

The numbers in the letter from NPHET are getting very serious! I’m really hoping that the decision not to go higher than level 3 is to give the government time to get on board with a coordinated cross boarder approach. Unless we make a very serious effort to slow this down, and soon, we will quickly find ourselves completely overwhelmed. I’ve long given up hope of aviation returning to anything approaching normality for the foreseeable.

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/ba4aa0-letters-from-the-cmo-to-the-minister-for-health/

Cookiemunster

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye rather than a short sharp lockdown now, we could be sleep walking into a longer one in the runup to Christmas. I don't see people's attitudes changing.

It is worth nothing the majority favour more lockdown measures not less. At least according to the ESRI.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/most-people-want-more-not-fewer-restrictions-survey-shows-esri-expert-1.4372433

More restrictions is not the same as full lockdown. As of tomorrow, there will be more restrictions, with bars and restaurants closed for the first time since June and a ban on travelling ourside your county.

Inquitus

Cookiemunster wrote: »

More restrictions is not the same as full lockdown. As of tomorrow, there will be more restrictions, with bars and restaurants closed for the first time since June and a ban on travelling ourside your county.

Well around 40% of us live in County Dublin and we have been at level 3 for nearly 3 weeks, not seen a huge change in people's attitudes, only major enforced change is the dining rules, the wet pubs haven't opened since March. The rest of the changes rely on people's buy in.

Tenger

The concern with Irish restrictions is inevitable but let’s try to focus on the aviation aspects of the current situation”

bk

From an aviation perspective I wonder which option is better/worse?

1) Level 5 now, for a few weeks into the start of November, with numbers low enough for Level 2 then in December/January.

2) Level 3 now, which probably won't work, becoming Level 4 in November, and maybe ending up Level 5 for December/January.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but normally the airline business does massive amounts of business around Christmas, between people coming home for Christmas and folks going on winter breaks during school term.

Personally I think NPHETs approach of a quick/sharp lockdown would be better for the airline industry. Though perhaps worse for other industries.

kona

bk wrote: »

From an aviation perspective I wonder which option is better/worse?

1) Level 5 now, for a few weeks into the start of November, with numbers low enough for Level 2 then in December/January.

2) Level 3 now, which probably won't work, becoming Level 4 in November, and maybe ending up Level 5 for December/January.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but normally the airline business does massive amounts of business around Christmas, between people coming home for Christmas and folks going on winter breaks during school term.

Personally I think NPHETs approach of a quick/sharp lockdown would be better for the airline industry. Though perhaps worse for other industries.

It makes **** all of a difference unless ya wanna go to such amazing places such as lichtenstein.

bk

kona wrote: »

It makes **** all of a difference unless ya wanna go to such amazing places such as lichtenstein.

Well if we move to the EU wide traffic light system, the level of Covid19 in the community come December/January will dictate how restrictive travel is then.

kona

bk wrote: »

Well if we move to the EU wide system, the level of Covid19 in the community come December/January will dictate how restrictive travel is then.

The place is riddled and will continue to be as long as the schools remain open, until theres a vaccine or people just accept the risks etc then travel will continue to be very restricted and aviation will continue to be one of the biggest casualties of the covid response.

Jack1985

It's clear from our counterparts in Europe there will be no further full-scale national lockdowns as experienced at the start of this year with death rates as they are.

The Gov here have more beds coming on stream as well as ICU capacity which is still currently below what was available at the previous peak. The damage of waiting lists which is tinkering on unmanageable now can't be allowed to happen again and a concerted effort needs to be made to get that down using Private Healthcare too.

Aviation will begin recovery here once travel is adopted toward the EU traffic light system - data from the UK shows once Portugal and Spain re-opened for example, traffic vols boomed and the reverse occurred when overkill of taring each region with one brush happened i.e. Spain. Hungary went off on a whim by locking borders again and have infuriated Europe in doing so it flies in the face of fact-based science.

NPHET's attitude of it's a waste of resources with testing at Airports show the problem from the start, Ireland simply isn't right following a lone based attitude with travel - Germany and Italy are prime examples of mitigating risk, that needs to happen here and I'm more confident of that after the last few days – With some of the tests coming on stream it will be cheaper and easier to mitigate the risk. The quite frankly embarrassing attitude ‘one of them will be right’ is laughable, it will always be laid at Gov regardless if an outcome is negative – The re-infection of nursing homes here again will lead to higher percentages of deaths in those categories as occurred previously and it is as clear as it was last March that we need to protect those most vulnerable to this virus. The eye again has been taken off the ball despite the serious ramifications of it. There have been questionable actions by NPHET and its quickly forgotten by the public being sold dream land options none of which have been adopted in Europe for just reasons.

Nursing Homes Ireland (NHI) responded to the growing crisis on March 4th by imposing nationwide visiting restrictions on private facilities.

On March 10th, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said the blanket restrictions should be lifted because they were premature and impacted on residents’ social interactions.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-has-struggled-to-protect-nursing-homes-from-covid-19-1.4221555

Tenger

At this point I feel pre-departure testing and/or testing on arrivals is the only way to de-stigmatise air travel.

Saw a great offer in a travel agent for December. 3 night accommodation.
Problem is that minimum quarantine for Iceland is 5-6 days with 2 tests.