Dublin Racing Festival 2020

leko99

The Dublin Racing Festival is days away. Excited much?!?!!:D so heres the questions;
Who are you looking forward to seeing the most?
Who represents value at the current prices?
Who is way overpriced?

Prices are at time of post and are top 6 from each market.
NL & Partners Solicitors Novice
Latest Exhibition 9/2
Fury Road 9/2
Elixir Dainay 5/1
Easywork 6/1
Longhouse Poet 7/1
Asterion Forlonge 8/1


Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Chacun Pour Soi 5/4
A PLus Tard 9/4
Cilaos Emery 3/1
Min 6/1
DDG 20/1
Ordinary World 33/1

Irish Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle 11/8
Sharjah 2/1
Klassical Dream 7/2
Petit Mouchoir 14/1
Apples Jade 16/1
Supasundae 20/1

Arkle Novice Chase
Notebook 7/4
Fakir 2/1
Cash Back 5/1
Bapaume 6/1
Melon 10/1
Easy Game 25/1

Flogas Novice Chase
Faugheen 2/1
Battleoverdoyen 11/4
Laurina 4/1
Fakir 6/1
Melon 13/2
Easy Game 8/1

Spring Juvenile Hurdle
Aspire Tower 4/7
Rayapour 5/1
Cerebus 11/2
Wolf Prince 8/1
Never Do Anything 10/1
A Wave Of The Sea 12/1

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle
Abacadabras 13/8
Envoi Allen 9/2
Andy Dufresne 6/1
Captain Guinness 6/1
Elixir Dainay 6/1
Easywork 6/1

Irish Gold Cup
Kemboy 7/4
Delta Work 2/1
Presenting Percy 9/2
Chriss Dream 7/1
Bellshill 16/1
Sizing John 20/1

carq

Looking at last year it definitely seems a favourites meeting - listed below.
Notebooks performance was very good but tempted by melon at the prices - even e/w.
Would be looking at backing envoi allen and fury road at the prices too.


Saturday

1st Commander Of Fleet (IRE) (12)13/2
1st Apple's Jade (FR) (6) 8/11fav
1st Off You Go (IRE) (5) 8/1
1st Envoi Allen (FR) (1) 4/6fav
1st Min (FR) (2) 4/9fav
1st Le Richebourg (FR) (4) 11/10fav
1st Quamino (GER) (9) 14/1

Sunday

1st Sassy Diva (IRE) (12) 10/3fav
1st Sir Erec (IRE) (8) 13/8fav
1st Klassical Dream (FR) (8) 9/4fav
1st Dallas Des Pictons (FR) (6) 7/2Jfav
1st La Bague Au Roi (FR) (8) 10/11fav
1st Bellshill (IRE) (4) 2/1
1st Whisperinthebreeze (GB) (16) 7/1
1st Santa Rossa (IRE) (4) 3/1

BoldReason

Only ones sticking out at those prices and without doing any work on it are.

A Plus Tard should be closer to Chacun. Chacun to short for me. A Plus Tard probably the right price Chacun should be at least 7/4.

Id make Sharjah favorite for the champion hurdle or at least joint fav. I like the mare but I'd take her on at 11/8 also.

Battleoverdoyen at 11/4 is a bet. I'd make him favorite over faugheen.

Captain Guinness at 6/1 I'd have some of that also if he ran. Assuming Envoi Allen does not show up. In which case I wouldn't have a bet.

Seems I will be taking on the top end of the market in most races as also don't like Kemboy.

RivetingRoger

Min wont be running, and at the prices, the bookies know it too.
Faugheen 2/1 scares me, i want him to win, i think he could win but 2/1 is so skinny, christ
Percy 9/2 is a HUGE price
Bellshill 16/1 an EW punt I'd like to get into
Have multiple bets on already for March that incl Aba in the supreme so I am hoping he hacks up here, and i think he could

madmoose

Flying over friday so cant wait, go to punchestown most years but this is my first trip to leopardstown and im going both days.

Regarding betting i doubt i will bet much bar the handicaps as i expect most favs to win across the graded races.

madmoose

Hope we see Sizing John run well in the Irish Gold Cup after his hurdles mishap last time.

yaboya1

Some cracking races there.
Assume Envoi Allen doesn't run based on those prices?

BoldReason

madmoose wrote: »

Flying over friday so cant wait, go to punchestown most years but this is my first trip to leopardstown and im going both days.

Regarding betting i doubt i will bet much bar the handicaps as i expect most favs to win across the graded races.

Enjoy it. Leopardstown is by far the best punter friendly experience in the country. Great facilities and great viewing points for track and parade ring.

madmoose

BoldReason wrote: »

Enjoy it. Leopardstown is by far the best punter friendly experience in the country. Great facilities and great viewing points for track and parade ring.

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

BoldReason

madmoose wrote: »

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

I missed it last year as I was away. But it was fine the previous year from what I remember. Not as bad as Stephens day which is mayhem.

Others can probably comment on last year.

RivetingRoger

Anyone thinking Min will actually run ?

famagusta

BoldReason wrote:

Others can probably comment on last year.

BoldReason wrote:

I missed it last year as I was away. But it was fine the previous year from what I remember. Not as bad as Stephens day which is mayhem.

Ya I would agree, iirc about 14000 there for the Saturday last year, no bother with viewing or getting pints, its a great spot

Francie Barrett

Any deals on tix this year?

IAMAMORON

madmoose wrote: »

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

Leopardstown rarely gets chronic busy, there is plenty of space and the facilities are great. I hope you have a great time.

leko99

leko99 wrote: »

The Dublin Racing Festival is days away. Excited much?!?!!:D so heres the questions;
Who are you looking forward to seeing the most?
Who represents value at the current prices?
Who is way overpriced?

Prices are at time of post and are top 6 from each market.
NL & Partners Solicitors Novice
Latest Exhibition 9/2
Fury Road 9/2
Elixir Dainay 5/1
Easywork 6/1
Longhouse Poet 7/1
Asterion Forlonge 8/1


Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Chacun Pour Soi 5/4
A PLus Tard 9/4
Cilaos Emery 3/1
Min 6/1
DDG 20/1
Ordinary World 33/1

Irish Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle 11/8
Sharjah 2/1
Klassical Dream 7/2
Petit Mouchoir 14/1
Apples Jade 16/1
Supasundae 20/1

Arkle Novice Chase
Notebook 7/4
Fakir 2/1
Cash Back 5/1
Bapaume 6/1
Melon 10/1
Easy Game 25/1

Flogas Novice Chase
Faugheen 2/1
Battleoverdoyen 11/4
Laurina 4/1
Fakir 6/1
Melon 13/2
Easy Game 8/1

Spring Juvenile Hurdle
Aspire Tower 4/7
Rayapour 5/1
Cerebus 11/2
Wolf Prince 8/1
Never Do Anything 10/1
A Wave Of The Sea 12/1

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle
Abacadabras 13/8
Envoi Allen 9/2
Andy Dufresne 6/1
Captain Guinness 6/1
Elixir Dainay 6/1
Easywork 6/1

Irish Gold Cup
Kemboy 7/4
Delta Work 2/1
Presenting Percy 9/2
Chriss Dream 7/1
Bellshill 16/1
Sizing John 20/1

To answer your first question somewhere between 5 and 10 of them - so many good horses.

Your second 2 questions..... Not a clue

Will have a look at the cards/going on the day - day before to find something to punt on.

But whatever wins/runs well in the last posted race will only be collecting place money if they head to Prestbury Park on Friday 13th behind SANTINI:D

Going back to questions 2 and 3 in order I'll go:
Laurina - Flogas, Fury Road - NL & Partners equally for "value"

And, for way overpriced:
Sizing John

But I haven't a clue and these might not even run

Did I mention SANTINI :pac: :pac:

Okay, now that I've considered it a bit to answer question 1 - Honeysuckle.

WicklowBravee

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Anyone thinking Min will actually run ?

He’s won the race the last two years. Where else is he gonna run before Cheltenham?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

To answer your first question somewhere between 5 and 10 of them - so many good horses.

Your second 2 questions..... Not a clue

Will have a look at the cards/going on the day - day before to find something to punt on.

But whatever wins/runs well in the last posted race will only be collecting place money if they head to Prestbury Park on Friday 13th behind SANTINI:D

2 and 3 in oGoing back to questions rder I'll go:
Laurina - Flogas, Fury Road - NL & Partners equally for "value"

And, for way overpriced:
Sizing John

But I haven't a clue and these might not even run

Did I mention SANTINI :pac: :pac:

Okay, now that I've considered it a bit to answer question 1 - Honeysuckle.

I'll also add Bapaume in the Arkle to the "value" list.
But like I already mentioned.... not much of a clue me.....

Good races and good horses... I'll probably throw a score or so on two or three of the graded races when I find a good thing on or on the day before the races....

But bear in mind for future reference the Seven Barrows machine who will be watching the main event with disdain

Great thread btw... Brings out all sorts of opinions which is what this game is based on, and, not bragging or anything like that, some good levity from me especially...

Enjoy if you're venturing

Andrew00

Money for fury Road this weekend

Plasandrunt

Sharjah my only bet of the week. I do like Honeysuckle but have to take her on.

Gavin "shels"

madmoose wrote: »

Hope we see Sizing John run well in the Irish Gold Cup after his hurdles mishap last time.

Thought I was going to be the only to mention him....

Heading out Sunday myself.

carq

Strange how so few english horses make the trip over given the prize money at stake?
Have to applaud the efforts to get this festival off the ground - its like a super charged mini cheltenham before cheltenham.

Brock Turnpike

I'll be going with a the sentimental double for an interest...

Faugheen
Sizing John

Slattsy

Suppose if you fancy Fury Road this weekend, best to get on at 10s with bet365 now. 8s in a lot of places.

He looks the strongest of the irish and i suspect he could go off a hell of a lot shorter than 10s so i've taken some of that.

NaiveMelodies

Reckon Fakir is value at 2s to overturn the form with Notebook. Hope he doesn't go Sandown.

Min a 6/1 is ridiculous. Suggests he isn't running to me. Maybe he'll be running in Gowran before Ryanair tilt?

Slattsy

Agree re Fakir - thought MW gave him a poor enough ride last time. If there's a decent bit of cut in the ground come March i think he'll win the Arkle. 11/2 with PP.. Again might be worth a bet before the DRF.

RivetingRoger

WicklowBravee wrote: »

He’s won the race the last two years. Where else is he gonna run before Cheltenham?

Look at his price WB
do you really think he will be running with a price of 6/1 !!!
No chance he is running
He would be 5/2 absolute MAX price and probably shorter
Not a hope he runs V Chacun either



DRF is strangely missing a mid distance chase

spuddiesal

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Reckon Fakir is value at 2s to overturn the form with Notebook. Hope he doesn't go Sandown.

Min a 6/1 is ridiculous. Suggests he isn't running to me. Maybe he'll be running in Gowran before Ryanair tilt?

I think Mullins could over turn the two of them.

If you dig into Fakirs form who has he actually bet? Samcro not the horse that he was supposed to be. Overturned by Pentland hills and fussil raffles. Bet melon and was getting 7lbs on him. Also all of Mullins horses need first run. 4th in poor supreme. Bet Fast buck (no good) by 3 lengths and was 14lb better of in weights. 2lb worse of this weekend. I think he will go Sandown.

Regarding Notebook who has he bet too? Very poor hurdler. Looked good the last day but how good is Fakir?

I would be on cash back. Danny Mullins couldn’t pull him up after his last race. Money coming for Bapuame. I would say Townend will pick Bapuame to keep Rich happy and leave Danny on Cash back.

spuddiesal

Slattsy wrote: »

Agree re Fakir - thought MW gave him a poor enough ride last time. If there's a decent bit of cut in the ground come March i think he'll win the Arkle. 11/2 with PP.. Again might be worth a bet before the DRF.

No way he wins the Arkle of even weights. If all stays fit I’d price him up at around 16/1

IAMAMORON

I am backing any UK raiders, they will have to be trying.

I would be wary of some of the other races, insofar as depending on the horses target, it is close enough to Cheltenham for trainers to not have them fully revved up to the max. They don't want their best ones over the top in 5-6 weeks. It is a bit like backing at Aintree in reverse if you ask me.

Take the Irish Hennessy for example. Traditionally it has never been a great feeder race for Gold Cup winners. I would be on the cute eye for any shrewd Irish trainer who is not arsed going to Cheltenham and wants to strike here for nice money and then target Punchestown and Fairyhouse. In Particular the bigger stables will be spreading out their targets.

But I would definitely be expecting some head scratchers with only 5 weeks to Cheltenham.

posturingpat

spuddiesal wrote: »

I think Mullins could over turn the two of them.

If you dig into Fakirs form who has he actually bet? Samcro not the horse that he was supposed to be. Overturned by Pentland hills and fussil raffles. Bet melon and was getting 7lbs on him. Also all of Mullins horses need first run. 4th in poor supreme. Bet Fast buck (no good) by 3 lengths and was 14lb better of in weights. 2lb worse of this weekend. I think he will go Sandown.

Regarding Notebook who has he bet too? Very poor hurdler. Looked good the last day but how good is Fakir?

I would be on cash back. Danny Mullins couldn’t pull him up after his last race. Money coming for Bapuame. I would say Townend will pick Bapuame to keep Rich happy and leave Danny on Cash back.

Friend of mine speaks to Townend on occasion, after his win at Navan Paul apparently was hugely impressed with Cash back, so it's interesting he picked Tornado flyer next time. Could be 2 to follow.

spuddiesal

posturingpat wrote: »

Friend of mine speaks to Townend on occasion, after his win at Navan Paul apparently was hugely impressed with Cash back, so it's interesting he picked Tornado flyer next time. Could be 2 to follow.

I think we haven’t seen the best of Tornado Flyer yet. Looks like they are stepping him up in trip.

yaboya1

Cash Back was very impressive lto.
Anyone any idea what the plan is with the runner up from that day (Zero Ten)?
Looked like he'd come on bundles for that run.

NaiveMelodies

Supasundae is still 20s, 3 places with Powers.
I anticipate only 6 going to post in this.

Your getting 2/1 against your stake for him to place when IMO he's odds on to finish in the top 3.
Added bonus if Honeysuckle fluffs her lines and he wins.

IAMAMORON

I am Backing La Bague au Roi for the Gold Cup on Sunday, 33/1 . Mark Walsh is riding her.

1) Won at the same track and festival last year.
2) I don't think any Cheltenham Gold Cuppers will be trying too hard. That includes all Percy wafflers and Delta Work. Given that she has to beat Kemboy, Sizing John (pleeeeeeease), Chris's Dream ( good chance ), and of course Belllshill. I reckon Bellshill will be well revved up for this one, Wylie likes a winner here and I wouldn't fancy it at Cheltenham either. Bellshill the big danger, watch out for Closutton waffles over the weekend to stretch the price, not eating up, ground etc.
3) Uk trained so she will be definitely trying.
4) She goes on softish ground or better, unless we get a deluge I expect decent ground.
5) There is no chance of Mark Walsh pulling her ( even though he is one of the best in the business here), nice money for the winner and second place.
6) If I think of anything else I will post here.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am Backing La Bague au Roi for the Gold Cup on Sunday, 33/1 . Mark Walsh is riding her.

1) Won at the same track and festival last year.
2) I don't think any Cheltenham Gold Cuppers will be trying too hard. That includes all Percy wafflers and Delta Work. Given that she has to beat Kemboy, Sizing John (pleeeeeeease), Chris's Dream ( good chance ), and of course Belllshill. I reckon Bellshill will be well revved up for this one, Wylie likes a winner here and I wouldn't fancy it at Cheltenham either. Bellshill the big danger, watch out for Closutton waffles over the weekend to stretch the price, not eating up, ground etc.
3) Uk trained so she will be definitely trying.
4) She goes on softish ground or better, unless we get a deluge I expect decent ground.
5) There is no chance of Mark Walsh pulling her ( even though he is one of the best in the business here), nice money for the winner and second place.
6) If I think of anything else I will post here.

Bellshill of interest to me too Moron
Class horse
went to GC last year as Ruby's pick
Goes well at L'Town
Race would possibly have to fall apart for it to win, but the price is very appealing
This is a quality horse, no doubt

BoldReason

Some conspiracy theories go on around here. Lads worrying about jockeys pulling a horse in the ****ing Irish Gold Cup.
Suffering jesus.

IAMAMORON

BoldReason wrote: »

Some conspiracy theories go on around here. Lads worrying about jockeys pulling a horse in the ****ing Irish Gold Cup.
Suffering jesus.

We're allowed take the piss in fairness.

I remember a few years ago a horse called Quel Espirit winning. A real pile a crap of a horse. Could never stay up, always falling and coming into races on the bridle and never getting up, a real punters nightmare.

Anyway I went to the bookies on the morning of the race and was told to lump on. That pile a shight won 96 grand at 5/4 and everyone seemed happy as larry. But nothing else got put in the race. It happens.

Before anyone pipes up, that yoke was back PTPing in less than 18 months, never won a course race again.

Be careful out there.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

We're allowed take the piss in fairness.

I remember a few years ago a horse called Quel Espirit winning. A real pile a crap of a horse. Could never stay up, always falling and coming into races on the bridle and never getting up, a real punters nightmare.

Anyway I went to the bookies on the morning of the race and was told to lump on. That pile a shight won 96 grand at 5/4 and everyone seemed happy as larry. But nothing else got put in the race. It happens.

Before anyone pipes up, that yoke was back PTPing in less than 18 months, never won a course race again.

Be careful out there.

Was in the bookies last year the day Tiger Roll won at something like 25/1


Saw it on the board, saw the price, said "no way that's running"
ignored it


Mate of mine, wouldn't know a gelding from Shetland, he saw the price, he knew the name, he backed it.........20 quid........
I laughed at him


The rest.....is history

akelly02

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am Backing La Bague au Roi for the Gold Cup on Sunday, 33/1 . Mark Walsh is riding her.

1) Won at the same track and festival last year.
2) I don't think any Cheltenham Gold Cuppers will be trying too hard. That includes all Percy wafflers and Delta Work. Given that she has to beat Kemboy, Sizing John (pleeeeeeease), Chris's Dream ( good chance ), and of course Belllshill. I reckon Bellshill will be well revved up for this one, Wylie likes a winner here and I wouldn't fancy it at Cheltenham either. Bellshill the big danger, watch out for Closutton waffles over the weekend to stretch the price, not eating up, ground etc.
3) Uk trained so she will be definitely trying.
4) She goes on softish ground or better, unless we get a deluge I expect decent ground.
5) There is no chance of Mark Walsh pulling her ( even though he is one of the best in the business here), nice money for the winner and second place.
6) If I think of anything else I will post here.

that mare isnt in love with the game anymore in my opinion . finished.

NaiveMelodies

akelly02 wrote: »

that mare isnt in love with the game anymore in my opinion . finished.

She's the only thats going to be trying though.

akelly02

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

She's the only thats going to be trying though.

Yea in a grade 1 worth over 100 grand .

the rest will be smoking fags out the back

d00mk1n

Sizing John’s season is over

Link:

https://twitter.com/racingpost/status/1222554340843556870?s=21

Margate

d00mk1n wrote: »

Sizing John’s season is over

Link: https://twitter.com/racingpost/status/1222554340843556870?s=21

let him retire he owes them nothing

IAMAMORON

akelly02 wrote: »

that mare isnt in love with the game anymore in my opinion . finished.

At the prices I am prepared to take the angle that she has been on the easy list for a while. She was an AP favourite for the RSA this time last year. I would not write her off just yet.

She may turn out to be regressive, but at the prices...

yaboya1

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Supasundae is still 20s, 3 places with Powers.
I anticipate only 6 going to post in this.

Your getting 2/1 against your stake for him to place when IMO he's odds on to finish in the top 3.
Added bonus if Honeysuckle fluffs her lines and he wins.

Who do you think won't run?
May get third, but unlikely imo. Definitely not anywhere near odds on. Hard to see him finishing ahead of honeysuckle, sharjah or Petit mouchoir on current form. If they all run, he's not odds on to be placed if there's only 4 runners.

yaboya1

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Bellshill of interest to me too Moron
Class horse
went to GC last year as Ruby's pick
Goes well at L'Town
Race would possibly have to fall apart for it to win, but the price is very appealing
This is a quality horse, no doubt

Don't know where you're getting the goes well at Leopardstown from.
One win from 6 starts there in a four horse race.
Better right handed.

Whiplash85

yaboya1 wrote: »

Don't know where you're getting the goes well at Leopardstown from.
One win from 6 starts there in a four horse race.
Better right handed.

Anything catch anyone's eye in the handicaps?

posturingpat

I think La bague au roi aint the horse she was and will find it tough to get involved this weekend.
What's with the booking of Walsh? Hardly renowned for his aggressive riding on bold front runners?
Would Rachel not be a better fit? I'm guessing Puppy keeps the ride on Chris's dream? Has Willie booked her for one of his?

posturingpat

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Anything catch anyone's eye in the handicaps?

Galvin looks on a fair mark of 140. Reached something like 143 or144 over hurdles but always looked like he'd be a chaser in time.
Fell first time out at Galway before 2 encouraging races where he looked like a long term project but still finished close to some decent horses.
Only issue I have before my bet is his mark could be too nice for Gordon to ignore for Cheltenha even allowing for the 3 or 4 pound he's sure to receive for the trip over.

Earendil

IAMAMORON wrote: »

At the prices I am prepared to take the angle that she has been on the easy list for a while. She was an AP favourite for the RSA this time last year. I would not write her off just yet.

She may turn out to be regressive, but at the prices...

Anibale Fly is a tiddle for me at 50s.

IAMAMORON

Earendil wrote: »

Anibale Fly is a tiddle for me at 50s.

Why is Mark Walsh not riding him ?