General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

C14N · 06-02-2020 4:28pm

rob316 wrote: »

He was never a elected taoiseach either. Personally I can't stand him.

He was elected in his constituency, chosen as party leader, and then given a vote of confidence by the Dáil. That's really about as elected as any Taoiseach has ever been.

is_that_so · 06-02-2020 4:32pm

McMurphy wrote: »

M.McGrath?

Yeah, probably an option, he's likeable, has some good common sense and is less confrontational than some.

C14N · 06-02-2020 4:36pm

votecounts wrote: »

Michael McGrath will be the next leader of FF imo, McGuiness hasn't a snowballs chance of getting it. Micheal Martin should never have been leader in the first place, reminds me of monty burns.

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 4:37pm

charlie14 wrote: »

I doubt it.
McGuinness has too much ego to be a stalking horse for anyone.

I said there'd be signs of dissent in FF before the week was out.

Where do I collect me winnings?

is_that_so · 06-02-2020 4:38pm

C14N wrote: »

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

He beat the rest of them comfortably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Fianna_F%C3%A1il_leadership_election

L1011 · 06-02-2020 4:40pm

C14N wrote: »

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

They selected a new leader while Cowen was still in office; so everyone valid to run was tainted by association - and plenty of the other logical candidates lost their seats anyway.

Of the 3 others who actually ran, O'Cuiv would have killed the party entirely; Lenihan was dead within five months and Hanafin lost her seat.

BonnieSituation · 06-02-2020 5:02pm

L1011 wrote: »

They selected a new leader while Cowen was still in office; so everyone valid to run was tainted by association - and plenty of the other logical candidates lost their seats anyway.

Of the 3 others who actually ran, O'Cuiv would have killed the party entirely; Lenihan was dead within five months and Hanafin lost her seat.

Always my biggest regret. Dang.

An Ciarraioch · 06-02-2020 5:10pm

Exit poll to be published immediately upon close of polls:

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1225451962822537221

AndrewJRenko · 06-02-2020 5:15pm

sporina wrote: »

there might be one I would vote for.. but thats about it..

I'm not being smart, but that's not the question I asked.

It's a tough one to answer, but of all the remaining candidates, do you have equal levels of disdain for all, or are there some there that you hate more than others?

Here's another reason why some people won't be voting - because they can't get into the feckin polling station. This is 2020, btw.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/thousands-will-not-be-able-to-vote-on-saturday-expert-warns-1.4163888

ForestFire · 06-02-2020 6:16pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Exit poll to be published immediately upon close of polls:

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1225451962822537221

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

Remember Leo declaring the green wave vote and he was listening(increase our taxes) , when in fact, the final counting showed a much different green vote.

is_that_so · 06-02-2020 6:26pm

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

Remember Leo declaring the green wave vote and he was listening(increase our taxes) , when in fact, the final counting showed a much different green vote.

Tallies are often a very good early indicator as the people doing it have been at it for years.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 6:42pm

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

They do actually finish the counts.

Bannasidhe · 06-02-2020 6:42pm

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

It's all part of the spectator sport that is the counting of the votes.

It's honestly my favourite spectator sport. And not just mine, I once explained the Irish system to a Cuban who was fascinated by how we were glued to the screens in work, shouting out counts, rushing it when there was a declaration. He thought we were mad.
Now he's an addict too - watches online from Cuba.

Sir Oxman · 06-02-2020 6:43pm

Tally men and women are a great feature of Irish elections.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 6:44pm

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's all part of the spectator sport that is the counting of the votes.

It's honestly my favourite spectator sport. And not just mine, I once explained the Irish system to a Cuban who was fascinated by how we were glued to the screens in work, shouting out counts, rushing it when there was a declaration. He thought we were mad.
Now he's an addict too - watches online from Cuba.

I do love a good count...as the actress said to Dracula.

Itssoeasy · 06-02-2020 6:48pm

C14N wrote: »

He was elected in his constituency, chosen as party leader, and then given a vote of confidence by the Dáil. That's really about as elected as any Taoiseach has ever been.

And also no Taoiseach was elected that. They were as you pointed out elected by the voters of their constituency and then by the dail
.

blackcard · 06-02-2020 6:50pm

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Uriel. · 06-02-2020 6:52pm

blackcard wrote: »

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Don't think they'll (SF) be part of Government following this election.

cameramonkey · 06-02-2020 6:52pm

blackcard wrote: »

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

KevRossi · 06-02-2020 6:55pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Tally men and women are a great feature of Irish elections.

Also means various politicians and parties can totally ignore certain areas for the nest 5 years based on the low votes they get out of certain boxes. It benefits the politicians far more than the electorate.

Sir Oxman · 06-02-2020 6:57pm

KevRossi wrote: »

Also means various politicians and parties can totally ignore certain areas for the nest 5 years based on the low votes they get out of certain boxes. It benefits the politicians far more than the electorate.

there is that!
Or, they could target those areas to gain votes.

Itssoeasy · 06-02-2020 7:01pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

there is that!
Or, they could target those areas to gain votes.

Probably saves the cost of posters and the shoes if you don't go to areas you won't get votes in regardless of how good a candidate you may be.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 7:02pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

One way or another they'll be a big influence on government.

I think when the dust settles you'll see a hugely energised SF north and south.

robman60 · 06-02-2020 8:24pm

I enjoyed what I saw of the TG4 debate. A very confrontational Seán Kyne. Seemed to have an arrogance up there. The only other interesting character was the PBP guy because he kind of fitted my image of what PBP people are like.

Kyne's closing remarks were all about Brexit. I think FG need to realise rapidly that rightly or wrongly, people consider Brexit old news. I guess they don't have another trump to play though.

Snow Garden · 06-02-2020 8:44pm

Can we find where Vincent Browne is hiding and get him to do one show with the party leaders? He would rip them all to shreds!

Snow Garden · 06-02-2020 8:45pm

robman60 wrote: »

I enjoyed what I saw of the TG4 debate. A very confrontational Seán Kyne. Seemed to have an arrogance up there. The only other interesting character was the PBP guy because he kind of fitted my image of what PBP people are like.

Kyne's closing remarks were all about Brexit. I think FG need to realise rapidly that rightly or wrongly, people consider Brexit old news. I guess they don't have another trump to play though.

Yep and Kyne is in real danger of losing his seat. I hear his nest is well feathered though.

deanh · 06-02-2020 9:03pm

droidus wrote: »

Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 9:34pm

deanh wrote: »

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

Treat any polls with caution would be my advice. And news outlets owned by billionaires with presidential ambitions.

sid waddell · 06-02-2020 10:12pm

deanh wrote: »

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

Depends which angle you're talking about as regards reputation. They have a very good record in terms of accuracy in recent years.

easypazz · 06-02-2020 10:13pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

FF/SF coalition is most likely outcome according to Paddy Power.

blackcard · 06-02-2020 10:23pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

L1011 · 06-02-2020 10:27pm

That debate was astounding uneventful, helped by heavy use of muting microphones.

Nobody really came out too badly except Coppinger, unable to answer questions or string a sentence together.

Hurrache · 06-02-2020 10:30pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Can we find where Vincent Browne is hiding and get him to do one show with the party leaders? He would rip them all to shreds!

Richard Boyd Barrett has him locked in his basement, it's the only obvious explanation for Browne making YouTube videos advocating we vote for him.

Sir Oxman · 06-02-2020 10:33pm

blackcard wrote: »

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.

I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.

PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 10:36pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.

I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.

PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

'for the good of the country'. Martin's go to 'woe is me' phrase.

easypazz · 06-02-2020 10:36pm

blackcard wrote: »

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

If FG do confidence & supply or enter coalition with FF, with only say 35 seats, they could be cannibalised in the next GE by Sinn Fein, same as Labour in 2016.

They will be safer rebuilding in opposition.

Hurrache · 06-02-2020 10:36pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

What have they said that you need evidence for and are sceptical of?

SF have dug all their own holes, something their pretty familiar with. {OK, that was too obvious but I couldn't pass it)

easypazz · 06-02-2020 10:37pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.

I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.

PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

Once the election is over he wont care. Being the boss is all that will bother him.

Sir Oxman · 06-02-2020 10:40pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'for the good of the country'. Martin's go to 'woe is me' phrase.

But it is a REALLY large hill to climb down from.

Sierra Oscar · 06-02-2020 10:43pm

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. Fine Gael apparently feel there won't be enough first preferences to elect a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TD and it will be a dogfight for the final seat. It's not beyond the realm of possibility if Mary Lou ends up having a massive surplus. I would imagine her transfers will favour Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael.

If Paschal was to loose his seat then it will be a wipeout for Fine Gael.

https://twitter.com/DecDaly1/status/1225514241249161219

Sir Oxman · 06-02-2020 10:45pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. If he was to loose his seat then it will be a wipeout for Fine Gael.

https://twitter.com/DecDaly1/status/1225514241249161219

I think FG ran two here for some nuts reason (an extra seat available doesn't cut it)

It's only since 2011 they got a foothold back there.

Wonderful.:D

Hurrache · 06-02-2020 10:47pm

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

hotmail.com · 06-02-2020 10:48pm

Dublin Central isn't exactly Fine Gael heartland. He's lucky the constituency expanded to 4 seats.

I can't see Mary Fitz getting in there for FF. More likely to be Gary Gannon or Christy Burke.

Fann Linn · 06-02-2020 10:50pm

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

It would be nice if he did lose out all the same,

Sierra Oscar · 06-02-2020 10:52pm

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

Plenty of chatter on the ground in the actual constituency amongst the different campaigns. The flier is just a reference.

Fine Gael are nervous. They polled 11% in Dublin Central during the 2002 meltdown. The seat is gone if that comes to pass this time around.

golfball37 · 06-02-2020 10:54pm

I don’t like FG but Pascal is an alright sort.

L1011 · 06-02-2020 10:56pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. Fine Gael apparently feel there won't be enough first preferences to elect a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TD and it will be a dogfight for the final seat. It's not beyond the realm of possibility if Mary Lou ends up having a massive surplus. I would imagine her transfers will favour Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael.

Looks extremely similar to the last minute leaflets Durkan fired out in 2011 in Kildare North. Possibly worked for him at the expense of his younger constituency mate.

FrancieBrady · 06-02-2020 10:58pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

But it is a REALLY large hill to climb down from.

He has used it throughout this campaign to absolve himself. He has no scruples in my opinion. He will either do it, or get shoved aside by the split and infighting in FF.

Sierra Oscar · 06-02-2020 11:14pm

Irish Examiner front page tomorrow.

In a sign of how nervous the party is, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe chose to appear on Today FM's Last Word with Matt Cooper from his constituency rather than in studio, which was seen as significant.

sporina · 06-02-2020 11:19pm

i think that there should be a "spoil" option on the ballot paper actually..

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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