General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so

ednwireland wrote: »

is it just me or has leo been exposed as a very poor leader, i suspect if theres a heave against him he will be gone pretty quickly.


i doubt there will be an enda type fight form him.

Oddly the likely arithmetic may put the thoughts any such heave off. He's not really an issue TBH, getting a third term for a party is tough. Between deal making or getting ready for another election within a possibly foreshortened lifetime of this Dail will keep minds focused. He can also go back to being more off the cuff and saying what he thinks.

Whitecarstones

C14N wrote: »

The problem is that you can't really tell people to just put differences aside and sort the problem out when they have fundamentally different views on how the problem can actually be solved. About the only time you ever see that kind of rallying effect in government is when a nation is at war, and as bad as the housing crisis is here, it's not in any way comparable to being at war.

Mary Lou seems to think you can solve the housing shortage simply by making it illegal for housing to be expensive, and that you can just tax the bejaysis out of rich people and companies to pay for it all, and they won't complain. It's is a really short-sighted and overly simplistic solution that will actually just make the problem worse, but she believes in it passionately. She won't go into government without someone who agrees, and I can only hope nobody with any sense will let her into government while she still clings to them.

I suppose you are right. Im in a fantasy world. I like Mary Lou as a person. I dont even know why. But i like Leo and Michael too. I met MM on campaign trail for local elections last year and he was a lovely guy. But I do disagree with policies of all parties. Its going to be hard to vote.

rob316

Jimmyireland wrote: »

Was she far wrong...

mansplaining
/ˈmanspleɪnɪŋ/
Learn to pronounce
nouninformal
noun: mansplaining

the explanation of something by a man, typically to a woman, in a manner regarded as condescending or patronizing.
"your response is classic mansplaining"

Judging from what I was listening to on her policies she could do with alot more "mansplaining"

rob316

C14N wrote: »

I don't know if he's an especially poor leader, but I do think he's personally quite unpopular and comes across as very insensitive a lot of the time, and there's definitely a perception that he's too privileged and well-off to know what problems people are dealing with.

He was never a elected taoiseach either. Personally I can't stand him.

is_that_so

rob316 wrote: »

He was never a elected taoiseach either. Personally I can't stand him.

The Dail elected him as they have done with every other Taoiseach. That's how it works.

cameramonkey

markodaly wrote: »

The Healy-Rae's can be bought but it will come as a price for any would be government. The public will not look too kindly on it.

From the poll numbers there will be only one Healy Rae after the election.

is_that_so

cameramonkey wrote: »

From the poll numbers there will be only one Healy Rae after the election.

And this one time one wishes for the polls to be right!

An Ciarraioch

And indeed Bruton never won an election either, but served a similar length of term as Taoiseach.

Brussels Sprout

I should have just read Jim Corr's twitter page:

https://twitter.com/Jimcorrsays/status/1225185524081659905

sporina

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Do you dislike all the candidates equally, or are some of them less worse for you than others?

there might be one I would vote for.. but thats about it..

i still think its better to go and spoil a vote rather than just voting for folk for the sake of it.. at least by going to vote, one is respecting the fact that we have a right to vote and that people have died for that etc

charlie14

sid waddell wrote: »

If the SF vote nationally even vaguely holds up in comparison to polls I'd be astonished be if SF didn't easily win a seat in Meath West.

Bookies have Guirke (SF) 3rd favourite after Cassells (FF) and Tóibin (Aontu) but they have 3 FG in 4th 5th and 6th.
With those 3 FG, if Guirke is to win a SF seat it will most likely be by taking back Tóibin`s I would imagine.

RobertKK

Claims that John McGuinness could oppose Micheál Martin for leadership of FF if he doesn’t support helping home owners in arrears.

John McGuinness has indicated that he will treat Martin’s refusal to support the Bill as a red line issue and will consider running against him in any leadership battle, should the Bill be unsupported once again.

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irish-election-anger-vulture-funds

More details in the link.

FrancieBrady

RobertKK wrote: »

Claims that John McGuinness could oppose Micheál Martin for leadership of FF if he doesn’t support helping home owners in arrears.


https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irish-election-anger-vulture-funds

More details in the link.

McGuinness is pro an alliance with SF too.

I wonder will Michael be doorstepped about this for the final few hours of the campaign.

is_that_so

RobertKK wrote: »

Claims that John McGuinness could oppose Micheál Martin for leadership of FF if he doesn’t support helping home owners in arrears.


https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irish-election-anger-vulture-funds

More details in the link.

He'd be a very, very poor choice as FF leader/Taoiseach. The man just fires off brainfarts, winds people up and has a very inflated sense of his own importance. He's obviously not good at maths either given FF will have a big challenge just to get the numbers. If they don't get in Martin will be gone anyway but I'm pretty sure FF can do a lot better than McGuinness.

McMurphy

is_that_so wrote: »

He'd be a very, very poor choice as FF leader/Taoiseach. The man just fires off brainfarts, winds people up and has a very inflated sense of his own importance. He's obviously not good at maths either given FF will have a big challenge just to get the numbers. If they don't get in Martin will be gone anyway but I'm pretty sure FF can do a lot better than McGuinness.

M.McGrath?

charlie14

RobertKK wrote: »

Claims that John McGuinness could oppose Micheál Martin for leadership of FF if he doesn’t support helping home owners in arrears.


https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irish-election-anger-vulture-funds

More details in the link.

John McGuinness would not have a snowballs chance of defeating Martin in a leadership contest.

He is know as such a contrarian politically, that it has been said of him that if he was a one man party he would still find a reason to disagree with himself

FrancieBrady

charlie14 wrote: »

John McGuinness would not have a snowballs chance of defeating Martin in a leadership contest.

He is know as such a contrarian politically, that it has been said of him that if he was a one man party he would still find a reason to disagree with himself

More likely to be a stalking horse for somebody else.

votecounts

Michael McGrath will be the next leader of FF imo, McGuiness hasn't a snowballs chance of getting it. Micheal Martin should never have been leader in the first place, reminds me of monty burns.

charlie14

FrancieBrady wrote: »

More likely to be a stalking horse for somebody else.

I doubt it.
McGuinness has too much ego to be a stalking horse for anyone.

charlie14

McMurphy wrote: »

M.McGrath?

I would imagine so.

C14N

rob316 wrote: »

He was never a elected taoiseach either. Personally I can't stand him.

He was elected in his constituency, chosen as party leader, and then given a vote of confidence by the Dáil. That's really about as elected as any Taoiseach has ever been.

is_that_so

McMurphy wrote: »

M.McGrath?

Yeah, probably an option, he's likeable, has some good common sense and is less confrontational than some.

C14N

votecounts wrote: »

Michael McGrath will be the next leader of FF imo, McGuiness hasn't a snowballs chance of getting it. Micheal Martin should never have been leader in the first place, reminds me of monty burns.

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

FrancieBrady

charlie14 wrote: »

I doubt it.
McGuinness has too much ego to be a stalking horse for anyone.

I said there'd be signs of dissent in FF before the week was out.

Where do I collect me winnings?

is_that_so

C14N wrote: »

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

He beat the rest of them comfortably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Fianna_F%C3%A1il_leadership_election

L1011

C14N wrote: »

It does strike me as odd that Martin was chosen as party leader given his long tenure as a senior figure in the party. I would have thought that FF would be keen to rebrand and try to shed the image of the Ahern and Cowan administrations, given that they're not exactly fondly remembered.

They selected a new leader while Cowen was still in office; so everyone valid to run was tainted by association - and plenty of the other logical candidates lost their seats anyway.

Of the 3 others who actually ran, O'Cuiv would have killed the party entirely; Lenihan was dead within five months and Hanafin lost her seat.

BonnieSituation

L1011 wrote: »

They selected a new leader while Cowen was still in office; so everyone valid to run was tainted by association - and plenty of the other logical candidates lost their seats anyway.

Of the 3 others who actually ran, O'Cuiv would have killed the party entirely; Lenihan was dead within five months and Hanafin lost her seat.

Always my biggest regret. Dang.

An Ciarraioch

Exit poll to be published immediately upon close of polls:

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1225451962822537221

AndrewJRenko

sporina wrote: »

there might be one I would vote for.. but thats about it..

I'm not being smart, but that's not the question I asked.

It's a tough one to answer, but of all the remaining candidates, do you have equal levels of disdain for all, or are there some there that you hate more than others?

Here's another reason why some people won't be voting - because they can't get into the feckin polling station. This is 2020, btw.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/thousands-will-not-be-able-to-vote-on-saturday-expert-warns-1.4163888

ForestFire

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Exit poll to be published immediately upon close of polls:

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1225451962822537221

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

Remember Leo declaring the green wave vote and he was listening(increase our taxes) , when in fact, the final counting showed a much different green vote.