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General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,472 ✭✭✭AdMMM


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Some might do, but I certainly have never voted greens on such bases
    Sorry, it's a bit of a generalization.

    There are lots of principled voters who vote carefully based on their principles out there. There'll be many on here and other sites because they have that active interest in politics and policies. I'd love if there was more of them. However, most voters vote based on who they think will put more money in their pocket, or are creatures of habit and vote how they always have.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    John Halligan interview on WLR now until 11 am. Warning DT is doing his personal chit chat first rather than just politics


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,285 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Max Powers wrote: »
    Certainly seems from all the pollstars (who can be mad wrong obviously) like the FF/FG part of that might be accurate, I'd think the other way around myself, ff over 50, fg under. I hope we vote wisely according to who will be in power, we probably need a foot in both camps for sure.
    The danger with the polling companies is that they are taking a small sample of people that is representative of the electorate and trying to guess how they will vote. A poll is only a snapshot of public opinion at a particular point in time. The problem is that voting patterns for most people only crystalise in the last week or so of the election campaign. The other problem is that journalists tend to try to extrapolate national polls (of about 1,000 to 3,000 voters) to local constituencies and fail. Thus a fringe group like PBP/etc might have less than 1% support in these polls but still win 6 seats. I'm not sure that any of the polls detected the rise of FF in 2016.

    Regards...jmcc


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,086 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Halligans votes are all on the left so will favour Sinn Fein over Shanahan I believe.

    I think the Fianna Fáil vote will split creating a difficulty for Butler, she will get in by the skin of her teeth on transfers
    I think John Cummins is in with an outside chance, he has a better profile than the other FG candidate


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,114 ✭✭✭noby


    Gael23 wrote: »
    I think John Cummins is in with an outside chance, he has a better profile than the other FG candidate

    The other FG candidate has a pretty high profile in the West/Dungarvan, and has done well in the locals down here. I haven't seen the full list, but is there any one else running from the west? That could all help Geoghegan's chances.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭hardybuck


    Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

    That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

    That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

    His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

    FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,086 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    hardybuck wrote: »
    Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

    That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

    That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

    His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

    FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

    Will that cost Butler her seat?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,285 ✭✭✭jmcc


    hardybuck wrote: »
    Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

    That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

    That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

    His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

    FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.
    In a GE, it isn't the percentages in LE constituencies that count but rather the votes. If he doesn't get enough votes to stay in the running, he loses. Same goes for Geoghan (sp?). The city votes will be crucial for this and there's a chance that Shanahan could take a lot of those city votes from FG.

    Regards...jmcc


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭hardybuck


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Will that cost Butler her seat?

    That'll be very interesting alright.

    Coffey not running will probably help her, and FF got between 20-30% of the first preferences in the Wards in west and mid county.

    I think she gets in and Eddie Mulligan does not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭hardybuck


    jmcc wrote: »
    In a GE, it isn't the percentages in LE constituencies that count but rather the votes. If he doesn't get enough votes to stay in the running, he loses. Same goes for Geoghan (sp?). The city votes will be crucial for this and there's a chance that Shanahan could take a lot of those city votes from FG.

    Regards...jmcc

    True, but the three Wards I mentioned have an electorate of 40,441. The city Wards have an electorate of 29,885, and I don't know the split of Tramore/Waterford City West which is 16,215.

    FG did very poorly in those city Wards, taking just 2 of the 18 seats - Cummins and Lola O'Sullivan (Grace's sister) in Tramore.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,285 ✭✭✭jmcc


    hardybuck wrote: »
    That'll be very interesting alright.

    Coffey not running will probably help her, and FF got between 20-30% of the first preferences in the Wards in west and mid county.

    I think she gets in and Eddie Mulligan does not.

    These are the LE results from 2019:
    http://www.waterfordcouncil.ie/elections/results/index.htm

    The wipeout of FG in the city (Waterford West/Tramore would be effectively city rather than county) could point to problems for FG. It may have enough to get a seat but it depends on a lot factors.

    Butler's result in 2016 showed that there was still a considerable FF vote and with good vote management, it could give FF two seats with Halligan not running. With Halligan's vote, it was a personal one and mainly left of centre. The problem for FG, and to a lesser extent FF, is that there is increased competition for that centre part of the political spectrum. Shanahan topped the poll in Waterford East and it was normally Davy Daniels who did this. Most people in Waterford are probably aware of someone who lost their lives because of the hospital issue. FG basically betrayed Waterford on this issue. It lied about the university too. That's what FG faces in Waterford. That's why it lost seats in traditionally FG areas. I don't know if it is facing a Labour-style obliteration but it may have difficulty convincing voters to vote for its candidates. What may emerge is a West Waterford/Waterford City split where people who see Cork University Hospital as their hospital might vote FG but the closer it gets to the city, people who once voted FG and who think of Ardkeen as their hospital might reconsider their vote thus halving the FG vote. That's the nightmare scenario for FG.

    Regards...jmcc


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭hardybuck


    I've said similar on previous threads before Christmas, but will say something similar here:

    - FG will get one seat minimum (Geoghegan)
    - SF will get one seat (Cullinane)
    - I think FF will get one seat (Butler)
    - A bloody battle for the 4th seat (Cummins, Shanahan, Mulligan, Labour, Green.

    Unless something fairly dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 250 ✭✭SeamusAFA


    hardybuck wrote: »
    I've said similar on previous threads before Christmas, but will say something similar here:

    - FG will get one seat minimum (Geoghegan)
    - SF will get one seat (Cullinane)
    - I think FF will get one seat (Butler)
    - A bloody battle for the 4th seat (Cummins, Shanahan, Mulligan, Labour, Green.

    Unless something fairly dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.

    I think Waterford will be very interesting. Think it will throw up a big surprise.

    Matt Shanahan, if he does a good campaign, will walk in on hospital ticket, probably exceed quota in 1st count.

    This in turn will throw all the rest up in the air.

    Geoghegan is very popular in west and will get big vote.
    Pratt running for Labour is very popular too and may pick up the no FG/FF vote in the west. They should be very transfer friendly. I think between these 2 there is a seat in the West and will depend on how people will get knocked out as to where it goes. Although I think Cummins may go early and that will help FG

    Mulligan V Butler is interesting. Both have had there issues with their electorate. There is one 1 FF seat there and maybe the women votes will still get her through.

    I think Cullinane won't walk in as easy as last time at all. Shanahan will get a lot of the "protest" No1s.

    I think seats will go
    Shanahan
    Geoghegan
    Butler
    then fight Cullinan/Pratt/Mulligan


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,755 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below


    I think O'Cathasaigh is going to run a belter. I think he'll put the sausages among the blaas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    I think O'Cathasaigh is going to run a belter. I think he'll put the sausages among the blaas.


    I'd love to see it happen, but we re a funny bunch, we don't tend to stray too much when it comes to it


  • Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭wagtail99


    hardybuck wrote: »
    His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

    FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

    Damian Geoghegan gets a lot of personal 'working class' votes in Dungarvan, these may not transfer over to to voting for FG in a General Election. John Deasy also had a large personal (inherited) vote and much of that will not go to Geoghegan. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭Chip Whitley


    While I can't claim any great knowledge of local politics beyond the last few years, I have dealt with a number of the candidates on both a personal and professional level and the ones who seem to genuinely care and have the will and drive to work hard for Waterford are Mulligan, Cummins, Cullinane and more recently O'Cathasaigh. While Matt Shanahan is great campaigner on the hospital issue and is great to deal with away from politics, I feel he'll be in well over his head should he reach the Dail.

    On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.


    The ff machine, she ll be grand!


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭Gillman1998


    While I can't claim any great knowledge of local politics beyond the last few years, I have dealt with a number of the candidates on both a personal and professional level and the ones who seem to genuinely care and have the will and drive to work hard for Waterford are Mulligan, Cummins, Cullinane and more recently O'Cathasaigh. While Matt Shanahan is great campaigner on the hospital issue and is great to deal with away from politics, I feel he'll be in well over his head should he reach the Dail.

    On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.

    That pretty well sums it up for me, exactly how I was thinking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 51 ✭✭somahoney74


    True and that's where Pratt could come into the running due to the geography. Apart from the 2016 election (Conway), Labour has always polled well in Waterford especially with transfers.

    Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.

    They ll probably be on my ballot paper somewhere, I ll let you know if I experience the shame


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,472 ✭✭✭AdMMM


    AdMMM wrote: »
    SF should top the poll in Waterford, especially with the number of people who voted John Halligan 1 and David Cullinane 2 during the last election. They ran in the old Ward 3 for years so they also had massive transferable votes between each other. That being said SF are in trouble nationally. Every time they try move to the centre, they get cold feet and make some gesture to move them back to the left. They'll always struggle to get more than 15% of the vote so long as they're in this state of paralysis.

    As if by clockwork then SF get themselves into a mess by standing by Paddy Holohan's remarks. He topped the poll for them in Tallaght in the Local Election, so of course they're not going to take decisive action and risk alienating their strong base in Tallaght.

    Another gesture to save their core support but only making them less attractive to everyone else.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭friendlyfun


    hardybuck wrote: »
    Yeah SF have had a very difficult local and European election, but did well at the recent by elections. Think they'd do very well to keep the seats they currently have.

    Don't always agree with the man, and his grammar isn't always the best on FB. that being said he is definitely a man with great sense of community spirit, topped the poll I believe in his ward, and chose to stand with women on repealing the eight when most of the men in the council choose to deny women healthcare.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,687 ✭✭✭Bards


    Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.

    Moved Ambulance control centre from WRH to Wexford General
    Moved VEC HQ from Waterford to Wexford and that's just 2 off the top of my head


  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭Dexpat


    Bards wrote: »
    Moved Ambulance control centre from WRH to Wexford General
    Moved VEC HQ from Waterford to Wexford and that's just 2 off the top of my head

    I'd have been a Labour voter in the past, but yeah the Labour party in coalition would not be good for Waterford, only because of Howlin. I know politicans like to look after their own but he had influence in the past to help regenerate the South East as a whole but he is very blinkered and seems to have something against Waterford. He gives the impression he'd rather something didn't come to the SE at all if was to go to Waterford.

    I haven't had a vote in Waterford for a long time but Cullinane looks certain especially as Halligan isn't running. He's very committed and knows his way around the Oireachtas which I think has been good in terms of opening doors re: the North Quays etc. I'd love to see FG left with nothing as they haven't delivered for Waterford despite loads of promises. The vote in the West should be enough to get them through though.

    FF not much better and with the Cork bias at the top of the party we'd still be looking for crumbs from the table. I think 1 FF 1 SF and 1FG is very likely. I couldn't guess who the individuals will be for FF/FG but it's irrelevant as they won't have much influence, especially as Coffey is gone. I'd like the last seat to go to the Greens. I think it's possible they'll pick up quite a few seats and be in coalition with either FF or FG and others maybe SF.

    I'm in Dublin Bay North so not sure who to vote for but probably will vote for the Greens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭hardybuck


    I too would be happy enough to see the Greens get the 4th seat if FF, FG and SF got one each.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,285 ✭✭✭jmcc


    hardybuck wrote: »
    I too would be happy enough to see the Greens get the 4th seat if FF, FG and SF got one each.
    Look at Shanahan's transfers in the link above. Some went to the Greens but more went to FF. While it is just a local election, the transfers may indicate that the transfers in the GE will not go the way that people might expect. It will be difficult for the Green candidate to get a seat and Shanahan might get there first. With Halligan out of it, it becomes more complex. I think that a lot of Halligan's vote was a Waterford city vote and as such, that might transfer to Waterford city candidates rather than county candidates. Labour might be hoping to get some of those votes but I'm not quite sure that they will split like that.

    Regards...jmcc


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭Gardner


    anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Gardner wrote:
    anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e


    Where would you like to do this?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,755 ✭✭✭✭Hello 2D Person Below


    As I've said before, Labour might have stood a chance of recovery if they had had a political enema.

    As is, all the old faces are still at the trough.


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