General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

That'll be very interesting alright.

Coffey not running will probably help her, and FF got between 20-30% of the first preferences in the Wards in west and mid county.

I think she gets in and Eddie Mulligan does not.

These are the LE results from 2019:
http://www.waterfordcouncil.ie/elections/results/index.htm

The wipeout of FG in the city (Waterford West/Tramore would be effectively city rather than county) could point to problems for FG. It may have enough to get a seat but it depends on a lot factors.

Butler's result in 2016 showed that there was still a considerable FF vote and with good vote management, it could give FF two seats with Halligan not running. With Halligan's vote, it was a personal one and mainly left of centre. The problem for FG, and to a lesser extent FF, is that there is increased competition for that centre part of the political spectrum. Shanahan topped the poll in Waterford East and it was normally Davy Daniels who did this. Most people in Waterford are probably aware of someone who lost their lives because of the hospital issue. FG basically betrayed Waterford on this issue. It lied about the university too. That's what FG faces in Waterford. That's why it lost seats in traditionally FG areas. I don't know if it is facing a Labour-style obliteration but it may have difficulty convincing voters to vote for its candidates. What may emerge is a West Waterford/Waterford City split where people who see Cork University Hospital as their hospital might vote FG but the closer it gets to the city, people who once voted FG and who think of Ardkeen as their hospital might reconsider their vote thus halving the FG vote. That's the nightmare scenario for FG.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

I've said similar on previous threads before Christmas, but will say something similar here:

- FG will get one seat minimum (Geoghegan)
- SF will get one seat (Cullinane)
- I think FF will get one seat (Butler)
- A bloody battle for the 4th seat (Cummins, Shanahan, Mulligan, Labour, Green.

Unless something fairly dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.

SeamusAFA

hardybuck wrote: »

I've said similar on previous threads before Christmas, but will say something similar here:

- FG will get one seat minimum (Geoghegan)
- SF will get one seat (Cullinane)
- I think FF will get one seat (Butler)
- A bloody battle for the 4th seat (Cummins, Shanahan, Mulligan, Labour, Green.

Unless something fairly dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.

I think Waterford will be very interesting. Think it will throw up a big surprise.

Matt Shanahan, if he does a good campaign, will walk in on hospital ticket, probably exceed quota in 1st count.

This in turn will throw all the rest up in the air.

Geoghegan is very popular in west and will get big vote.
Pratt running for Labour is very popular too and may pick up the no FG/FF vote in the west. They should be very transfer friendly. I think between these 2 there is a seat in the West and will depend on how people will get knocked out as to where it goes. Although I think Cummins may go early and that will help FG

Mulligan V Butler is interesting. Both have had there issues with their electorate. There is one 1 FF seat there and maybe the women votes will still get her through.

I think Cullinane won't walk in as easy as last time at all. Shanahan will get a lot of the "protest" No1s.

I think seats will go
Shanahan
Geoghegan
Butler
then fight Cullinan/Pratt/Mulligan

I think O'Cathasaigh is going to run a belter. I think he'll put the sausages among the blaas.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

I think O'Cathasaigh is going to run a belter. I think he'll put the sausages among the blaas.

I'd love to see it happen, but we re a funny bunch, we don't tend to stray too much when it comes to it

wagtail99

hardybuck wrote: »

His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

Damian Geoghegan gets a lot of personal 'working class' votes in Dungarvan, these may not transfer over to to voting for FG in a General Election. John Deasy also had a large personal (inherited) vote and much of that will not go to Geoghegan. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Chip Whitley

While I can't claim any great knowledge of local politics beyond the last few years, I have dealt with a number of the candidates on both a personal and professional level and the ones who seem to genuinely care and have the will and drive to work hard for Waterford are Mulligan, Cummins, Cullinane and more recently O'Cathasaigh. While Matt Shanahan is great campaigner on the hospital issue and is great to deal with away from politics, I feel he'll be in well over his head should he reach the Dail.

On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.

Wanderer78

Chip Whitley wrote:

On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.

The ff machine, she ll be grand!

Gillman1998

Chip Whitley wrote: »

While I can't claim any great knowledge of local politics beyond the last few years, I have dealt with a number of the candidates on both a personal and professional level and the ones who seem to genuinely care and have the will and drive to work hard for Waterford are Mulligan, Cummins, Cullinane and more recently O'Cathasaigh. While Matt Shanahan is great campaigner on the hospital issue and is great to deal with away from politics, I feel he'll be in well over his head should he reach the Dail.

On another note, I don't understand the support for Mary Butler at all. She has never been impressive on any real issues. Herself and MM campaigning in 2016 outside the hospital with a banner that read "Fianna Fail will secure 24/7 Cardiac Care in UHW" is almost laughable now in retrospect.

That pretty well sums it up for me, exactly how I was thinking.

somahoney74

Crusty Blaa wrote: »

True and that's where Pratt could come into the running due to the geography. Apart from the 2016 election (Conway), Labour has always polled well in Waterford especially with transfers.

Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.

Wanderer78

somahoney74 wrote:

Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.

They ll probably be on my ballot paper somewhere, I ll let you know if I experience the shame

AdMMM

AdMMM wrote: »

SF should top the poll in Waterford, especially with the number of people who voted John Halligan 1 and David Cullinane 2 during the last election. They ran in the old Ward 3 for years so they also had massive transferable votes between each other. That being said SF are in trouble nationally. Every time they try move to the centre, they get cold feet and make some gesture to move them back to the left. They'll always struggle to get more than 15% of the vote so long as they're in this state of paralysis.

As if by clockwork then SF get themselves into a mess by standing by Paddy Holohan's remarks. He topped the poll for them in Tallaght in the Local Election, so of course they're not going to take decisive action and risk alienating their strong base in Tallaght.

Another gesture to save their core support but only making them less attractive to everyone else.

friendlyfun

hardybuck wrote: »

Yeah SF have had a very difficult local and European election, but did well at the recent by elections. Think they'd do very well to keep the seats they currently have.

Don't always agree with the man, and his grammar isn't always the best on FB. that being said he is definitely a man with great sense of community spirit, topped the poll I believe in his ward, and chose to stand with women on repealing the eight when most of the men in the council choose to deny women healthcare.

Bards

somahoney74 wrote: »

Anyone from Waterford who votes for the Labour Party with Brendan Howlin as its leader should be ashamed of themselves. That man is no friend of Waterford. The Labour Party in government has always been disastrous for Waterford.

Moved Ambulance control centre from WRH to Wexford General
Moved VEC HQ from Waterford to Wexford and that's just 2 off the top of my head

Dexpat

Bards wrote: »

Moved Ambulance control centre from WRH to Wexford General
Moved VEC HQ from Waterford to Wexford and that's just 2 off the top of my head

I'd have been a Labour voter in the past, but yeah the Labour party in coalition would not be good for Waterford, only because of Howlin. I know politicans like to look after their own but he had influence in the past to help regenerate the South East as a whole but he is very blinkered and seems to have something against Waterford. He gives the impression he'd rather something didn't come to the SE at all if was to go to Waterford.

I haven't had a vote in Waterford for a long time but Cullinane looks certain especially as Halligan isn't running. He's very committed and knows his way around the Oireachtas which I think has been good in terms of opening doors re: the North Quays etc. I'd love to see FG left with nothing as they haven't delivered for Waterford despite loads of promises. The vote in the West should be enough to get them through though.

FF not much better and with the Cork bias at the top of the party we'd still be looking for crumbs from the table. I think 1 FF 1 SF and 1FG is very likely. I couldn't guess who the individuals will be for FF/FG but it's irrelevant as they won't have much influence, especially as Coffey is gone. I'd like the last seat to go to the Greens. I think it's possible they'll pick up quite a few seats and be in coalition with either FF or FG and others maybe SF.

I'm in Dublin Bay North so not sure who to vote for but probably will vote for the Greens.

hardybuck

I too would be happy enough to see the Greens get the 4th seat if FF, FG and SF got one each.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

I too would be happy enough to see the Greens get the 4th seat if FF, FG and SF got one each.

Look at Shanahan's transfers in the link above. Some went to the Greens but more went to FF. While it is just a local election, the transfers may indicate that the transfers in the GE will not go the way that people might expect. It will be difficult for the Green candidate to get a seat and Shanahan might get there first. With Halligan out of it, it becomes more complex. I think that a lot of Halligan's vote was a Waterford city vote and as such, that might transfer to Waterford city candidates rather than county candidates. Labour might be hoping to get some of those votes but I'm not quite sure that they will split like that.

Regards...jmcc

Gardner

anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e

Wanderer78

Gardner wrote:

anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e

Where would you like to do this?

As I've said before, Labour might have stood a chance of recovery if they had had a political enema.

As is, all the old faces are still at the trough.

jmcc

Gardner wrote: »

anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e

Why? Is this some new recycling deal that nobody has heard about?

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Deleted User wrote: »

As I've said before, Labour might have stood a chance of recovery if they had had a political enema.

As is, all the old faces are still at the trough.

Labour even appointed Ivana Bacik as its director of elections. Some Labour TDs are retiring though. Two have already announced. Some of those eliminated in 2016 want to get back though.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

Gardner wrote: »

anyone who votes Green should be shot with balls of their own ****e

Say what you like about them, but in fairness their people are advocates of the movement, regardless of whether they're in politics or not, and for a long time when environmental issues weren't in any way popular.

That may change in the future as people try and get on their bandwagon, but they don't seem to have the many hangers on and family dynasty stuff that many of the other parties have.

It's no harm to have balance in the constituency in terms of who gets elected, and they might offer it.

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

Look at Shanahan's transfers in the link above. Some went to the Greens but more went to FF. While it is just a local election, the transfers may indicate that the transfers in the GE will not go the way that people might expect. It will be difficult for the Green candidate to get a seat and Shanahan might get there first. With Halligan out of it, it becomes more complex. I think that a lot of Halligan's vote was a Waterford city vote and as such, that might transfer to Waterford city candidates rather than county candidates. Labour might be hoping to get some of those votes but I'm not quite sure that they will split like that.

Regards...jmcc

Yeah, I would agree that the Greens will be up against it on this occasion. But I remember on the local and European election thread I was one of the few that kept mentioning Grace O'Sullivan as being a serious dark horse when many didn't think she had any chance.

It's easier to go green in the LE than GE - the former is seen as a bit more harmless but if the Greens are in Government many people will have to fork out a few extra bob on carbon tax and change their usage patterns - many people will reject that idea completely.

On Shanahan - how is he doing since he became a local Councillor? Has he figured out that his current role has no influence on 24/7, and if so what is he doing at Council meetings?

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Yeah, I would agree that the Greens will be up against it on this occasion. But I remember on the local and European election thread I was one of the few that kept mentioning Grace O'Sullivan as being a serious dark horse when many didn't think she had any chance.

The Green vote had been building over the years.

It's easier to go green in the LE than GE - the former is seen as a bit more harmless but if the Greens are in Government many people will have to fork out a few extra bob on carbon tax and change their usage patterns - many people will reject that idea completely.

It depends on which demographics are voting for the Greens. There's a kind of virtue to voting Green that voting FF/FG/SF/Lab does not have.

On Shanahan - how is he doing since he became a local Councillor? Has he figured out that his current role has no influence on 24/7, and if so what is he doing at Council meetings?

Don't know. I'm only a visitor to this planet. Seriously though, he's probably no different from any of the other councillors.

Regards...jmcc

Dunmoreroader

hardybuck wrote: »

Yeah, I would agree that the Greens will be up against it on this occasion. But I remember on the local and European election thread I was one of the few that kept mentioning Grace O'Sullivan as being a serious dark horse when many didn't think she had any chance.

It's easier to go green in the LE than GE - the former is seen as a bit more harmless but if the Greens are in Government many people will have to fork out a few extra bob on carbon tax and change their usage patterns - many people will reject that idea completely.

On Shanahan - how is he doing since he became a local Councillor? Has he figured out that his current role has no influence on 24/7, and if so what is he doing at Council meetings?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/green-party-meps-back-proposal-to-remove-irelands-eu-tax-veto-38805187.html

I think I might be done with the Greens after this. WTF??

jmcc

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/green-party-meps-back-proposal-to-remove-irelands-eu-tax-veto-38805187.html

I think I might be done with the Greens after this. WTF??

Vote in the European parliament tend to be group votes. The Indo has, for the last ten or so years been a very pro-FG newspaper.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/green-party-meps-back-proposal-to-remove-irelands-eu-tax-veto-38805187.html

I think I might be done with the Greens after this. WTF??

Borderline treason!

Christy Browne

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/green-party-meps-back-proposal-to-remove-irelands-eu-tax-veto-38805187.html

I think I might be done with the Greens after this. WTF??

Ciaran Cuffe explained this in his recent AMA on Reddit:

"What was the reasoning behind you voting in favour of the EU proposal to remove Ireland’s EU tax veto?"

"I want multinationals that operate in Ireland to pay their fair share of Corporation Tax. I’m not in favour of surrendering Irish tax sovereignty to Brussels, but I did vote for an amendment in the European parliament which said that qualified majority voting has delayed reform."

"Bull****. Actions speak louder than words..."

"We voted for a non-binding resolution. This was intended to send a signal to the Irish Government. The Irish Green Party does not have a policy position on unanimity. We were firing a shot across the bow of the Irish Government, a wake-up call, to concentrate its mind on the need for reform. Ireland’s aggressive tax planning policies win us few friends on the European stage. This is not anti-business, if anything it is a vote of support for small Irish small businesses that pay more than their fair share of taxes while some multinational companies pay little or nothing. If these companies paid 12.5% tax in Ireland we would be more than happy."

Gardner

hardybuck wrote: »

Say what you like about them, but in fairness their people are advocates of the movement, regardless of whether they're in politics or not, and for a long time when environmental issues weren't in any way popular.

That may change in the future as people try and get on their bandwagon, but they don't seem to have the many hangers on and family dynasty stuff that many of the other parties have.

It's no harm to have balance in the constituency in terms of who gets elected, and they might offer it.

while there is environmental issues at hand i certainly don't believe in climate change. that's a discussion for another day. But the Greens will increase carbon taxes and will introduce further levies and taxes to fund their pie in the sky projects. they were nothing short of a disgrace the last time they were in government with FF. once bitten twice shy.

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

The Green vote had been building over the years.

It depends on which demographics are voting for the Greens. There's a kind of virtue to voting Green that voting FF/FG/SF/Lab does not have.

Don't know. I'm only a visitor to this planet. Seriously though, he's probably no different from any of the other councillors.

Regards...jmcc

Green Vote didn't really build before that - that's why the 2019 elections were dubbed the 'Green Wave'. 2014 local election first prefs went down by 0.7%. 2016 General Election they went up by 0.9% after losing all of their 6 seats in the 2011 election.

Pretty much all of the councillors, if they didn't already know, set out in their LE material their opinions on national issues which they had zero influence over as councillors. Hopefully the local constituents and the local media pull them up on it better next time.

Muttley79

Eamon Ryan on primetime last night.his is the only party willing to increase taxes to fund wind energy and public transport.so like the fibre broadband,the taxpayer pays for it while a private company reaps the profit.no thanks!!

hardybuck

Muttley79 wrote: »

Eamon Ryan on primetime last night.his is the only party willing to increase taxes to fund wind energy and public transport.so like the fibre broadband,the taxpayer pays for it while a private company reaps the profit.no thanks!!

I watched the first 5 mins before having to switch it off, but I'm wondering if you've jumped too quickly to a conclusion.

If you want to overhaul public transport to make it cleaner - won't that cost money?

The Government currently funds research into renewable energy. They also provide certain grants to help encourage wind energy.

Carbon taxes could be ring-fenced to fund environmental projects, potentially freeing up other tax revenue for other projects. They might also help to encourage more environmentally friendly behaviour among consumer - e.g. the plastic bag levy.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Green Vote didn't really build before that - that's why the 2019 elections were dubbed the 'Green Wave'.

That's because the Green gains took journalists by surprise. What you have to remember about journalists is that very few of them understand numbers or polling data. The Green vote in the Euros in Ireland South had been increasing for years. It also benefited from the boundaries changes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_(European_Parliament_constituency)

2014 local election first prefs went down by 0.7%. 2016 General Election they went up by 0.9% after losing all of their 6 seats in the 2011 election.

While first preferences matter, it is the transfers that get people elected. The 2011 GE results were harsh but there was no way out of it for the Greens. The smaller party in any unpopular coalition always suffers proportionately more. Look at how Labour was almost obliterated in 2016 GE and it lost 81 seats in the 2014 LEs. Some of the Green decline in 2014 could be attributed to the Water Tax issue.

Pretty much all of the councillors, if they didn't already know, set out in their LE material their opinions on national issues which they had zero influence over as councillors. Hopefully the local constituents and the local media pull them up on it better next time.

There's nothing like success to get the media onboard. Having a unified approach to various issues is the sign of a political party that's worked out its message.

Regards...jmcc

road_high

Muttley79 wrote: »

Eamon Ryan on primetime last night.his is the only party willing to increase taxes to fund wind energy and public transport.so like the fibre broadband,the taxpayer pays for it while a private company reaps the profit.no thanks!!

The Green Party wanting to increase taxes? Never saw that one coming!

Gaspode

As inserted in Post No.1:

MOD NOTE:
Lets keep it civil and on-topic. No name-calling or other childish carry-on.
Be aware of libelous comments - big claims require big evidence!

If you are in any way involved with the local candidates or political parties you must declare this before you engage in the discussion.

Any misbehaviour will be dealt with swiftly and without further warning.

Junior

https://waterford-news.ie/2020/01/15/phoenix-electoral-possibilities/

Strong but reasoned opinion from The Phoneix.

debok

AdMMM wrote: »

As if by clockwork then SF get themselves into a mess by standing by Paddy Holohan's remarks. He topped the poll for them in Tallaght in the Local Election, so of course they're not going to take decisive action and risk alienating their strong base in Tallaght.

Another gesture to save their core support but only making them less attractive to everyone else.

Has he not being suspended from the party? Lot of scandals involving ffg reps nit too many suspended or resign. They just keep swinging and claiming

Harry Palmr

If the Greens want to get a vote or two - they should make microsupply to the ESB network a high profile matter.

RTE's Morning Ireland is in part coming from Waterford for the Monday edition.

MoashoaM

Junior wrote: »

https://waterford-news.ie/2020/01/15/phoenix-electoral-possibilities/

Strong but reasoned opinion from The Phoneix.

Who is that firebrand? I like the cut of his jib.

Harry Palmr

The phoenix is just a more loquacious version of a typical poster on this forum!

kayaksurfbum

Is this the full hit list?

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/01/14/waterford-candidates-general-election/#

Saw posters for an Aontu candidate in tramore today. Didn't catch the name.

It's not a great selection in my opinion. I'm surprised Eddie Mulligan got the go ahead from FF. Controversy is never far away from him, apparently!!!

kayaksurfbum

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

Saw posters for an Aontu candidate in tramore today. Didn't catch the name.

Ronan Cleary.

kayaksurfbum

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

Is this the full hit list?

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/01/14/waterford-candidates-general-election/#

Saw posters for an Aontu candidate in tramore today. Didn't catch the name.

It's not a great selection in my opinion. I'm surprised Eddie Mulligan got the go ahead from FF. Controversy is never far away from him, apparently!!!

The closing deadline is Wednesday, so not quite the full hit list yet haha.

DLS_75

My 4 - Eddie mulligan - David cullinane - Damien geoghegan - Mary butler

AdMMM

Has he not being suspended from the party? Lot of scandals involving ffg reps nit too many suspended or resign. They just keep swinging and claiming

Yeah they initially accepted his half-baked apology but then even more remarks came out today (about how evil underage girls are having sex with men and blackmailing them) and they had no choice really but to suspend him or risk this taking over and derailing their campaign.

Gillman1998

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

Is this the full hit list?

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/01/14/waterford-candidates-general-election/#

Saw posters for an Aontu candidate in tramore today. Didn't catch the name.

It's not a great selection in my opinion. I'm surprised Eddie Mulligan got the go ahead from FF. Controversy is never far away from him, apparently!!!

I think that last sentence deserves some clarification. I’m not aware of any controversy being ‘not too far’ from him.

debok

AdMMM wrote: »

Yeah they initially accepted his half-baked apology but then even more remarks came out today (about how evil underage girls are having sex with men and blackmailing them) and they had no choice really but to suspend him or risk this taking over and derailing their campaign.

Not defending him but comments taking from podcasts where the conversations can jump from one topic to another can look very bad when taking out if context. In fairness hes hadover 100 different podcast guests so it be easy to find something. Once he became councilor he should have stopped doing podcast.

debok

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

Is this the full hit list?

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/01/14/waterford-candidates-general-election/#

Saw posters for an Aontu candidate in tramore today. Didn't catch the name.

It's not a great selection in my opinion. I'm surprised Eddie Mulligan got the go ahead from FF. Controversy is never far away from him, apparently!!!

What's the controversy?

friendlyfun

Una Dunphy declaring as a candidate. Does she ever the get the message the people of Waterford don't want her as TD. I mean people don't want her a councillor either.