Property Market 2020

Stark

OwlsZat wrote: »

SozBbz...

I did specifically state we needed a thread for recession watch observations. Also, your four restaurants's sampled aren't enough to model any population so your observations are mealiness. Not sure if you've been following economic trends we've been in a "slowdown" since 3rd quarter 2019. We've not broken out of that trend as far as I've seen.

And your "friend of a friend" sample is meaningful?

What do you have to back up the "slowdown". Any officially published figures show the economy is still growing. Maybe not at as fast a rate as the peak of the recent recovery, but still growing.

Mic 1972

Stark wrote: »

And your "friend of a friend" sample is meaningful?

What do you have to back up the "slowdown". Any officially published figures show the economy is still growing. Maybe not at as fast a rate as the peak of the recent recovery, but still growing.

that's what he means tho, economy is in a slowdown trend. Still growing but at a slower pace, which means that it may get to halt, as it's happening at the moment in Germany

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

SozBbz...

I did specifically state we needed a thread for recession watch observations. Also, your four restaurants's sampled aren't enough to model any population so your observations are mealiness. Not sure if you've been following economic trends we've been in a "slowdown" since 3rd quarter 2019. We've not broken out of that trend as far as I've seen.

OwlZat....

So my personal observation about the restaurant scene booming is anecdotal but your story about what your mate heard from someone you've never met is relevant?

I you want a doomsday thread recession watch thread, then feel free to start one, there is nothing stopping you, but just mentioning it in another thread is pretty pointless.

OwlsZat

SozBbz wrote: »

OwlZat....

So my personal observation about the restaurant scene booming is anecdotal but your story about what your mate heard from someone you've never met is relevant?

I you want a doomsday thread recession watch thread, then feel free to start one, there is nothing stopping you, but just mentioning it in another thread is pretty pointless.

You rang four supposedly good restaurants for a table at their busiest time of the week. I'm not shocked and as an anecdote it explains close to zero. The girl I live with told me her boss informed them business is down 10% across his three resteraunts and he's thinks the next recession has started. Maybe you should tell him of your anecdote see if you can change HIS mind.

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

You rang four supposedly good restaurants for a table at their busiest time of the week. I'm not shocked and as an anecdote it explains close to zero. The girl I live with told me her boss informed them business is down 10% across his three resteraunts and he's thinks the next recession has started. Maybe you should tell him of your anecdote see if you can change HIS mind.

To be clear, I don't know this person and neither do you - so explain to me why I would care to change his mind? Maybe his restaurant is 10% less good than it used to be or maybe your housemate is gassing you. Who knows, and more importantly, who cares. For you to be banging around some 3rd hand information here like its gospel is just ridiculous.

As least I was relaying my own personal experience. And its not the first time, I've noticed it since Christmas, places have been going gangbusters, and you need to book anywhere half decent 3-4 weeks in advance. If places are doing that well, then the sky is hardly falling. You brought up the restaurant industry as an economic indicator by the way.

This is a discussion forum and I am perfectly entitled to relay my own real life experience of how buoyant the real economy is at the moment. Good restaurants are doing extremely well.

pearcider

SozBbz wrote: »

There is literally always someone saying we're about to be in recession.

A stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.

*I was trying to book a table for two this Saturday night about 2 weeks in advance. First 4 places I tried had no availability. Good restaurants are going like the clappers.

Biggest bank in Europe just cut 35,000 jobs but sure you can’t get a restaurant booking on a Saturday...

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

Biggest bank in Europe just cut 35,000 jobs but sure you can’t get a restaurant booking on a Saturday...

Right, because I was the one who claimed that the restaurant business is down 10% thus signalling a recession..... oh no wait.

OwlsZat

SozBbz wrote: »

Maybe his restaurant is 10% less good than it used to be or maybe your housemate is gassing you.

His three resteraunts. Maybe, listen more and spam less.

SozBbz wrote: »

Who knows, and more importantly, who cares. For you to be banging around some 3rd hand information here like its gospel is just ridiculous.

Are you suggesting my flatmate has an alternative motive for a mundane conversation about her meeting at work? Why don't you amuse us by listing out the different potential scenarios you see?

SozBbz wrote: »

This is a discussion forum and I am perfectly entitled to relay my own real-life experience of how buoyant the real economy is at the moment. Good restaurants are doing extremely well.

In the event of an economic slowdown do you think you'd see it first at the good resteraunts or more likely the one's struggling.

OwlsZat

SozBbz wrote: »

Right, because I was the one who claimed that the restaurant business is down 10% thus signalling a recession..... oh no wait.

Nobody said that, do you understand what the term slowdown means? Perhaps, you should slowdown bashing the keyboard and go off an learn a few terms.

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

His three resteraunts. Maybe, listen more and spam less.


Are you suggesting my flatmate has an alternative motive for a mundane conversation about her meeting at work? Why don't you amuse us by listing out the different potential scenarios you see?


In the event of an economic slowdown do you think you'd see it first at the good resteraunts or more likely the one's struggling.

Firstly, let me reiterate for emphasis because you're clearly not getting it, how little I care about you (some internet stranger) or your housemate or your housemates boss.

The point which you don't care to listen to, is that you posting 3rd hand information on a forum like this is beyond tedious and pointless. Maybe you should listen more?

Finally, restaurants struggle all the time for a variety of reasons, and not just to do with the economic climate. Over expansion, bad stock management, poor staff, high costs, new competition near by, changing consumer trends, rising commercial rents and rates, cost of insurance...the list is endless. The restaurant business in notoriously difficult and many fail through good times and bad.

And yes, while we're at it, when I see good places failing, then I might start to think theres something going on in the wider economy, but for now based on my own experience (and not my uncles sisters babysitters niece who heard down the pub....) I think you're catasthrophising based on very little.

This is your third of fourth post trying to maintain that something you heard 3rd hand from one person is relevant.

Anyway, this thread is supposed to be about the property market. As you mentioned, creating a separate thread for doom and gloom forecasting might be ideal and I can happily not participate in it.

pearcider

SozBbz wrote: »

Firstly, let me reiterate for emphasis because you're clearly not getting it, how little I care about you (some internet stranger) or your housemate or your housemates boss.

The point which you don't care to listen to, is that you posting 3rd hand information on a forum like this is beyond tedious and pointless. Maybe you should listen more?

Finally, restaurants struggle all the time for a variety of reasons, and not just to do with the economic climate. Over expansion, bad stock management, poor staff, high costs, new competition near by, changing consumer trends, rising commercial rents and rates, cost of insurance...the list is endless. The restaurant business in notoriously difficult and many fail through good times and bad.

And yes, while we're at it, when I see good places failing, then I might start to think theres something going on in the wider economy, but for now based on my own experience (and not my uncles sisters babysitters niece who heard down the pub....) I think you're catasthrophising based on very little.

This is your third of fourth post trying to maintain that something you heard 3rd hand from one person is relevant.

Anyway, this thread is supposed to be about the property market. As you mentioned, creating a separate thread for doom and gloom forecasting might be ideal and I can happily not participate in it.

You can’t separate the property market from the general economy. What’s the point in having the thread full of property bulls with no views from the bears who are trying to say that now is not the time to buy?

Theboinkmaster

SozBbz wrote: »

Firstly, let me reiterate for emphasis because you're clearly not getting it, how little I care about you (some internet stranger) or your housemate or your housemates boss.

The point which you don't care to listen to, is that you posting 3rd hand information on a forum like this is beyond tedious and pointless. Maybe you should listen more?

Finally, restaurants struggle all the time for a variety of reasons, and not just to do with the economic climate. Over expansion, bad stock management, poor staff, high costs, new competition near by, changing consumer trends, rising commercial rents and rates, cost of insurance...the list is endless. The restaurant business in notoriously difficult and many fail through good times and bad.

And yes, while we're at it, when I see good places failing, then I might start to think theres something going on in the wider economy, but for now based on my own experience (and not my uncles sisters babysitters niece who heard down the pub....) I think you're catasthrophising based on very little.

This is your third of fourth post trying to maintain that something you heard 3rd hand from one person is relevant.

Anyway, this thread is supposed to be about the property market. As you mentioned, creating a separate thread for doom and gloom forecasting might be ideal and I can happily not participate in it.

I would actually agree with OwlsZat on this one - everything I hear anecdotally in Ireland suggests the restaurant business is in trouble as a market this year.

Michelin star restaurant closed in Cork at start of year, L'Ecrivain discounting midweek, Press Up Entertainment group (own loads of restaurants) letting staff go before Xmas....

As regards global economy who knows but we are due a recession soon, due to cyclical nature of boom/bust - we are at nearly 10 years of goot times so really it's about the when not if.

House prices in Dublin definitely falling somewhat, especially at the higher end.

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

You can’t separate the property market from the general economy. What’s the point in having the thread full of property bulls with no views from the bears who are trying to say that now is not the time to buy?

At a very high level - sure - but one (or even 3) restaurant(s) is not the whole economy.

Also, I'm not saying this should be all one way. I'm saying someones mothers brothers best friends anicdotal evidence doesnt stand for much in my book.

Anyway, I think the real economy would have to take a big nose dive for property to be significantly impacted.

Property has in fact slowed down ahead of the real economy slowing. This is the affordability ceiling though, rather than a lack of demand. People still want to buy, and why wouldnt they when renting is both insecure and expensive. Factors like demographics, net migration and supply levels will be more important to anticipating how the property market will go, than general economic indicators.

Cuddlesworth

pearcider wrote: »

You can’t separate the property market from the general economy. What’s the point in having the thread full of property bulls with no views from the bears who are trying to say that now is not the time to buy?

It does seem likely the chinese lockdown is going to cause the next big recession. And the last big recession took out the market here.

SozBbz

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I would actually agree with OwlsZat on this one - everything I hear anecdotally in Ireland suggests the restaurant business is in trouble as a market this year.

Michelin star restaurant closed in Cork at start of year, L'Ecrivain discounting midweek, Press Up Entertainment group (own loads of restaurants) letting staff go before Xmas....

As regards global economy who knows but we are due a recession soon, due to cyclical nature of boom/bust - we are at nearly 10 years of goot times so really it's about the when not if.

House prices in Dublin definitely falling somewhat, especially at the higher end.

Its always about the when, not if.

And restaurants always close - there are still new places opening left and right though. I don't know the Cork scene but L'ecrivain... I can see why they might be finding it tough, the place is almost of another time.
As for the Press Up Group - I wouldnt shed a tear for them. They're property developers really, not in it for the love of good food anyway. The food in their establishments is overpriced and underwhelming. Style over substance. I personally avoid all of their restaurants and perhaps others have wised up and are doing the same. If anything, I think one business operating over 50 establishments in Dublin is probably a bigger threat to the ordinary restaurants anyway.

Anyway, off out for a meal now

Mic 1972

The Irish GDP is definitely slowing down

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth-annual

Cuddlesworth

Does it seem a little odd to anybody that the tenancy Registration statistics of the RTB, published quarterly, are two quarters behind. Coming up fast on three.

Seems like a very easy report to generate. A lot easier than the rent Index's they have continued to publish.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Had an EA tell me today about a property that was on the market since last August, that the true value of it is only been seen in the bidding the last few week as Brexit has passed. She said it basically has now come to market in the past few weeks, when I viewed it last August. The seller wants 30k over asking.

frustrated_

SozBbz wrote: »

Its alwaysbut L'ecrivain... I can see why they might be finding it tough, the place is almost of another time.

Going way off topic but bizarrely as this conversation has been going on L'ecrivain has just announced (45 mins ago) that they are closing down for good after 31 years.

The owner Derry is partner in setting up another place in Temple bar, so not getting out of the game completely and sees a future in the restaurant business.

Theboinkmaster

frustrated_ wrote: »

Going way off topic but bizarrely as this conversation has been going on L'ecrivain has just announced (45 mins ago) that they are closing down for good after 31 years.

The owner Derry is partner in setting up another place in Temple bar, so not getting out of the game completely and sees a future in the restaurant business.

Not surprised - I had a voucher from xmas and thought they'd close so went 2 weeks ago. Was overpriced and all a bit meh.

To be fair though 2 Michelin star restaurants in Ireland closing in first 2 months isn't a good sign for the industry. People are re-considering dropping €350 on a dinner for two and there's a lot of competition (healthy though - Dublin is great for restaurants)

Dolbhad

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Had an EA tell me today about a property that was on the market since last August, that the true value of it is only been seen in the bidding the last few week as Brexit has passed. She said it basically has now come to market in the past few weeks, when I viewed it last August. The seller wants 30k over asking.

I’m not surprised. Last 6 months of 2019 was a bit of stand still. Seems to be more Movement in January and February which tended to be quieter months as always thought. We know now Brexit will happen so it’s either sink or swim so I think people are going for it. After all the other options are renting or living with parents.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Dolbhad wrote: »

I’m not surprised. Last 6 months of 2019 was a bit of stand still. Seems to be more Movement in January and February which tended to be quieter months as always thought. We know now Brexit will happen so it’s either sink or swim so I think people are going for it. After all the other options are renting or living with parents.

I think Jan and Feb are meant to be the most popular months with exemptions.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Had an EA tell me today about a property that was on the market since last August, that the true value of it is only been seen in the bidding the last few week as Brexit has passed. She said it basically has now come to market in the past few weeks, when I viewed it last August. The seller wants 30k over asking.

Caveat is I think this is bollax and laughed at it.

Mic 1972

Lots of changes are expected this year with the global economy, Definitely not a good time to invest in property unless you need a house to live in

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lots of changes are expected this year with the global economy, Definitely not a good time to invest in property unless you need a house to live in

People have been saying this for the last 3/4 years.

Mic 1972

Pheonix10 wrote: »

People have been saying this for the last 3/4 years.

I agree it's been said before, not always with good reasons, but a few things are happening right now that weren't there last year

• Rents going down first time in ages, there are plenty on Daft with the red arrow

• Economy slowing down, which usually indicates the peak is near

• Unexpected events like the virus will have an impact too, we are going to pay for it

• Brexit, we still dont know what the outcome will be

If i was an investor i wouldn't take my chances now, as a seller however i'd take a good offer before it's too late

Dolbhad

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think Jan and Feb are meant to be the most popular months with exemptions.

I renewed my exemptions with two banks in November 2019 after first getting an exemption in November 3028. I think the first year of exemptions it was all very badly organised and exemptions ran out. But I think banks have got more organised and spread them out over the year so there isn’t the need to wait until new year anymore.

A lot of new builds next phases have come out in last few and KBC have reduced their fixed rate which may add to the market looking busier.

enricoh

DellyBelly wrote: »

So that is 27 people in the house at 350 a month. Nearly 10k a month for the owner of the house...Nice little earner there

Most of the time the landlord is oblivious, he has rented it out and it's being sublet.

TSQ

enricoh wrote: »

Most of the time the landlord is oblivious, he has rented it out and it's being sublet.

Yep, have direct knowledge of this in my neighbourhood, small house let to a Brazilian couple sublet with up to 15 people in bunk beds at any one time. Landlord only found out a year later when a neighbour told him. The couple didnt even live there themselves, could afford something real fancy off the income they were pulling in. Heard the same couple also did the same with another house nearby, god knows how many houses they were subletting.

19233974

Ive been holding off waiting to see how the housing market would pan out, but think im going to go full steam ahead to buy a place. The housing market is a basket case and the government wont fix it, that ive become certain of.

Maybe there will be a recession in the next 5 years, maybe there wont....but the overwhelming shortage of accommodation means property prices are unlikely to tank, together with the vested interests of all the institutional landlords and investors.

I can see dublin ending up like san francisco at this rate and it will not be a nice place to live if you cant afford your own place