Property Market 2020

car_radio19834

JamesMason wrote: »

You might not be the only one reconsidering business in the light of events. A lot of estate agents will be getting headaches over the coming weeks and months ahead.

Why?

lcwill

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Why?

Backs against the wall time for landlords. Rent freeze. I would expect some more punitive taxation. Council's will be under pressure to stop renting from private landlords (don't know exactly how they will manage this)

At the same time long term there is no magic solution to the supply problem and there will be pressure to make it easier to buy, so I would expect house prices to increase and buying to become easier so that would be my hedge against the hit on rental income/tax.

beggars_bush

lcwill wrote: »

Backs against the wall time for landlords. Rent freeze. I would expect some more punitive taxation. Council's will be under pressure to stop renting from private landlords (don't know exactly how they will manage this)

At the same time long term there is no magic solution to the supply problem and there will be pressure to make it easier to buy, so I would expect house prices to increase and buying to become easier so that would be my hedge against the hit on rental income/tax.

Surely a rent freeze will just stop rents increasing?

Where are councils going to get these magic houses for tenants If HAP is cut?
SF cannot tell FF and FG controlled councils how to operate

Assetbacked

It's important to remember that FG have sent thousands of landlords from the rental market the past few years so claims of SF causing an exodus ring very hollow

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1213/1016879-rent_index/

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's important to remember that FG have sent thousands of landlords from the rental market the past few years so claims of SF causing an exodus ring very hollow

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1213/1016879-rent_index/

The rhetoric from Sinn Féin is unambiguously anti-banks, anti-builders and anti-landlords. God only knows what policies they would implement. The fear of the unknown is strong.

Assetbacked

The_Conductor wrote: »

The rhetoric from Sinn Féin is unambiguously anti-banks, anti-builders and anti-landlords. God only knows what policies they would implement. The fear of the unknown is strong.

Like with Brexit, the outcome is unknown and overblown. In reality, it is unlikely we will even have a government and will probably need to vote again in a few weeks.

Estate agents will probably be busy though as people try to offload their houses before the onslaught from a potential SF government.

garhjw

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's important to remember that FG have sent thousands of landlords from the rental market the past few years so claims of SF causing an exodus ring very hollow

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1213/1016879-rent_index/

And it would only get worse if Sinn Fein started to further meddle in the rental market. Many of the Fine Gael measures were populist to make it look like they were doing more. Sinn Fein policy would be very damaging to the sector as they haven’t got a clue how the real world works. It doesn’t make a difference to any properties I own. I am more concerned about the intentional negative impact Sinn Fein want to make on the economy.

PommieBast

garhjw wrote: »

And it would only get worse if Sinn Fein started to further meddle in the rental market. Many of the Fine Gael measures were populist to make it look like they were doing more.

The stampede started long ago so all SF will do is perhaps spook a few straddlers.

garhjw

PommieBast wrote: »

The stampede started long ago so all SF will do is perhaps spook a few straddlers.

I did say it start during Fine Gael government. I wouldn’t say it was a stampede but Sinn Fein would likely cause that.... may lower prices but you will have large companies and cash buyers hoovering up more properties.... Sinn Fein impact on banks will reduce mortgages handed out

OwlsZat

Wildly Boaring wrote: »

5. The cost of building materials....
Like blocks, timber, concrete,insulation, etc..

7. By property tax did you actually mean vacant site tax???

The vacant site tax is a red herring. About 85% of the vacant sites are owned by councils. The councils should just be forced deliver housing where it's needed.

When I said property tax meant property tax. It should be applied and actually collected at a rate far exceeding what it is now. You own a expensive house you pay a more expensive tax. Pretty simple logic and it prevents banks etc., sitting on derelict properties. I was told Dublin has as many derelict houses as London, and I'd well believe it.

Lots of other EU capital cities tax on the appearance of your house. If it falls below standard hefty taxes are applied. Either option is fine but I belief a properly implemented property tax would be more progressive and also prevent dereliction.

The_Conductor

garhjw wrote: »

I did say it start during Fine Gael government. I wouldn’t say it was a stampede but Sinn Fein would likely cause that.... may lower prices but you will have large companies and cash buyers hoovering up more properties.... Sinn Fein impact on banks will reduce mortgages handed out

I'm not so sure.
With the prospect of a rent freeze- and the fact that a lot of the properties will be in RPZ rent controlled zones- there will be very few companies or investors interested in them. Far more likely is a glut of property on the secondhand market- and pressure to modify the HTB scheme from first time buyers, enabling them to avail of the scheme to buy second hand property.

The exodus was remarked upon by both the outgoing Minister and also the RTB- and when you look at the context of over 70% of all units in the Irish rental market still being owned by people who are letting a single property. If there are further disincentives for these small landlords- ontop of the current disincentives, the writing will be on the wall...…..

There is a place for an Irish rental sector- and if Sinn Féin can abolish the HAP scheme and house social welfare tenants in local authority housing- and bring all the housing associations under the remit of local authorities and the new Minister- there could potentially be a much smaller but vibrant sector- and all these landlords with their single properties that they intend to be their pensions- won't be crucified either.

The biggest change that FG brought in- was a recent professionalisation of the sector- however, the biggest shortcoming they never addressed, and its a short coming SF won't address either- is dealing with delinquent tenants- alongside the recent powergrab by the RTB and the various state funded actors in the sector.

SF in the sector- isn't necessarily bad- providing they put their worse inclinations behind them and try to assess what is best for the sector- for tenants in the first instance, for the taxpayer secondly, for landlords thirdly. There has to be a perception of equity- which patently is not the case as it stands.

OwlsZat

garhjw wrote: »

Sinn Fein impact on banks will reduce mortgages handed out

Nothing to do with the current expansions being one of the longest economic expansions of all time and the advice from our own central bank that we should be implementing prudent fiscal policy and paying down national debt. Obviously stiff rhetoric from the Central Bank, boo to Sinn Fein spoiling the party.

Sierra Oscar

The_Conductor wrote: »

Far more likely is a glut of property on the secondhand market- and pressure to modify the HTB scheme from first time buyers, enabling them to avail of the scheme to buy second hand property.

Sinn Féin want to abolish the HTB entirely. It's one of the policies they seem fairly animated about and I would imagine it's one of the few that they are unlikely to compromise on.

The_Conductor

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Sinn Féin want to abolish the HTB entirely. It's one of the policies they seem fairly animated about and I would imagine it's one of the few that they are unlikely to compromise on.

It is very difficult to justify it- and if they were intent on freeing up construction workers for public housing projects- it would make sense to remove this incentive for builders. The issue is a lot of FTBs are using HTB almost wholly as their 10% deposit- regardless of the fact that it is distorting the sector- and there is going to be much wailing from people if its abolished.

J_1980

The_Conductor wrote: »

It is very difficult to justify it- and if they were intent on freeing up construction workers for public housing projects- it would make sense to remove this incentive for builders. The issue is a lot of FTBs are using HTB almost wholly as their 10% deposit- regardless of the fact that it is distorting the sector- and there is going to be much wailing from people if its abolished.

They won’t abolish HTB. FF and FG wont let that happen and it’s actually popular with their electorate.
SF has 24% of the vote, sometimes it sounds like they got 40%.

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not so sure.
Far more likely is a glut of property on the secondhand market- and pressure to modify the HTB scheme from first time buyers, enabling them to avail of the scheme to buy second hand property.

When I was looking last year there was already a glut of knackered ex-rental properties going for the €275k mark.

The exodus was remarked upon by both the outgoing Minister and also the RTB- and when you look at the context of over 70% of all units in the Irish rental market still being owned by people who are letting a single property.

Can you give a citation for the 70% figure? I know that circa 70% of landlords own less than 3 properties, but have yet to see authoritative figures in terms of units...

The_Conductor

PommieBast wrote: »

? I know that circa 70% of landlords own less than 3 properties, but have yet to see authoritative figures in terms of units...

We discussed the RTB annual report which was quoting CSO statistics at some stage here last year (I'm on my mobile- I'll see if I can find it later). In short- 66-70% of all landlords own 1 property, 84% (seems very precise) own two or fewer and 91% of landlords own three or fewer properties.

Note- this is the percentage of landlords- and not the percentage of properties in the sector- its a subtle but notable difference...….

The 9% of landlords with >3 properties- would include the housing associations, REITs and a multitude of other groups- all of whom now come under the remit of the RTB.

I recollect reading the stats in the RTB annual report- however, I'm not going to try googling it on my mobile- it is in the RTB annual report though (along with a commentary on previous years- however, this is in arrears- aka the 2018 figures were published in July 2019- and we won't have 2019 figures until July 2020.

Cuddlesworth

J_1980 wrote: »

They won’t abolish HTB. FF and FG wont let that happen and it’s actually popular with their electorate.
SF has 24% of the vote, sometimes it sounds like they got 40%.

They won 37 seats of 41 candidates. The big takeaway is what if they had put more candidates out there?

The_Conductor

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

They won 37 seats of 41 candidates. The big takeaway is what if they had put more candidates out there?

There are 6-7 constituencies where they could realistically have fielded a second candidate, and didn't, and only one where they got two seats (Dublin Mid West). If they go to the people again- and the people vote in a similar manner (and some did vote Sinn Féin just to give FF/FG a black eye)- they could potentially get 46-47 seats (realistically).

Its in SF's interests for attempts to form a government to fail- and a new election to be called...…..

19233974

im sure im way off as its probably too early and reading too much into it, but i was barely getting one daft notification per week from my saved searches for new properties for sale. Have gotten 8 since yesterday morning, all apartments.

car_radio19834

19233974 wrote: »

im sure im way off as its probably too early and reading too much into it, but i was barely getting one daft notification per week from my saved searches for new properties for sale. Have gotten 8 since yesterday morning, all apartments.

I have seen red drops on some rentals but that's probably because the asking was so high in the first place.

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

I recollect reading the stats in the RTB annual report- however, I'm not going to try googling it on my mobile- it is in the RTB annual report though (along with a commentary on previous years- however, this is in arrears- aka the 2018 figures were published in July 2019- and we won't have 2019 figures until July 2020.

I'll have a dig through sometime, although I suspect I'll end up using number of recorded tenancies as a proxy for total number of properties.

PommieBast

car_radio19834 wrote: »

I have seen red drops on some rentals but that's probably because the asking was so high in the first place.

The place I just picked up the keys for was listed as €2000/month (a bit pricey but I needed a short tenancy) but it was cut to €1700/month all-in the morning I went to the viewing. Clearly people can only hold out so long in what is a quiet time of year..



Still it is a big step up from the €1125 I was paying for the place I am being turfed out of

timmyntc

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are 6-7 constituencies where they could realistically have fielded a second candidate, and didn't, and only one where they got two seats (Dublin Mid West). If they go to the people again- and the people vote in a similar manner (and some did vote Sinn Féin just to give FF/FG a black eye)- they could potentially get 46-47 seats (realistically).

Its in SF's interests for attempts to form a government to fail- and a new election to be called...…..

They got 2 seats in each of Donegal, Cavan/Monaghan and Louth?

omicron

car_radio19834 wrote: »

I have seen red drops on some rentals but that's probably because the asking was so high in the first place.

Place I signed a lease on last week dropped from 850 to 800 cos I was humming and hawing about taking it and he hadn't any other viewers. (20 mins outside cork).

JamesMason

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611
Figures from before the election...

handlemaster

Indo states Dublin 2019 down 1 %

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

Indo states Dublin 2019 down 1 %

Up nearly 2% nationally, and 6% in the border regions, but from a lower base. Fall of 0.9% in Dublin.

Zenify

Starting to see a few more properties coming onto the market now after a very slow January and start of Feb.

random_banter

Zenify wrote: »

Starting to see a few more properties coming onto the market now after a very slow January and start of Feb.

Have been keeping an eye (basically nearly every day) on properties in South and Central Dublin for 4-5 months, properties are flying up (to the likes of DAFT etc.) since the election.