Property Market 2020

Graham

I don't recall diversification being mandated by the Troika.

I do recall government policy leaning towards a greater mix of the types of rental accommodation providers.

Part of this included increasing supply through build-to-rent schemes.

thunderdog

Marius34 wrote: »

Sales has still increased by 2-3% in 2019. The key element to price decrease by the end of 2019 was affordability and Brexit. July-October, everyone was speaking about Hard Brexit, many potential buyers waited what will happen, at the end of July/Aug Irish stock market falled due to expected Hard Brexit. Afterwards Nov-Jan is the quietest month in Property market. As February is the first months of the active new year season, let's see how the property sales are doing.. I'm afraid we will start to hear again about stories of 30 people coming to the viewing, which was extremely rare in 2019.

I viewed two places in south Dub last weekend. Similar houses, the first one needed a bit of work done to it and there were approx 15-20 people viewing it. The second place (similar price) was ready to move in and there were at least 40-50 people viewing it. Took 5 mins of waiting outside just to get into the house to see it. Hard to get a decent look at it inside with that many people floating about

Villa05

ittakestwo wrote:

A lot of people seem to have a view well if here is a recession coming it will be similar to the last recession. But it wont. The recssion of 2008-10 was a one in a lifetime event. Ireland was a complete bubble then both banking and construction. But the economy is not now. If there is a recession coming it seems it's coming from a global slow down. But this wont be a pin to a bubble like last time. We are not building 80k houses like last time. The banking systems has not been binging on cheap foreign debt over the last few years and feeding it to the economy which suddenly going to be pulled back out.

Most of the damage from the last bubble burst was swept under the carpet. It was not resolved. Much of the corrective action taken was reversed or not fully implemented
Property tax, water charges, public sector reform etc

Interest rates are far too low for the growth in the Irish economy

Public debt is amongst the highest in the world

Money printing replaced cheap foreign debt

Curing an asset price bubble burst by reinflating asset prices is a highly questionable policy. Einstein's theory on stupidity and all that

JamesMason

Villa05 wrote: »

Most of the damage from the last bubble burst was swept under the carpet. It was not resolved. Much of the corrective action taken was reversed or not fully implemented
Property tax, water charges, public sector reform etc

Interest rates are far too low for the growth in the Irish economy

Public debt is amongst the highest in the world

Money printing replaced cheap foreign debt

Curing an asset price bubble burst by reinflating asset prices is a highly questionable policy. Einstein's theory on stupidity and all that

"It'll be something outside that could puncture it, and there would be very little WE could do about it..."

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

I do recall government policy leaning towards a greater mix of the types of rental accommodation providers.

Part of this included increasing supply through build-to-rent schemes.

Do you really think the % of institutional landlords in the rental sector is a greater mix?? More like a total con job. Why do you think FG were devoured at the elections? Mind boggles how laymen can think this is OK.

Graham

I didn't suggest it was good/bad either way.

It does however appear to be diversifying the types of rental accommodation providers.
Build to rent does appear to have brought new developments to the rental market.

I'm struggling to see a negative in either of those things to be honest.

JamesMason

Graham wrote: »

I didn't suggest it was good/bad either way.

It does however appear to be diversifying the types of rental accommodation providers.
Build to rent does appear to have brought new developments to the rental market.

I'm struggling to see a negative in either of those things to be honest.

Read the SBPost article then

ittakestwo

Villa05 wrote: »

Most of the damage from the last bubble burst was swept under the carpet. It was not resolved. Much of the corrective action taken was reversed or not fully implemented
Property tax, water charges, public sector reform etc

Interest rates are far too low for the growth in the Irish economy

Public debt is amongst the highest in the world

Money printing replaced cheap foreign debt

Curing an asset price bubble burst by reinflating asset prices is a highly questionable policy. Einstein's theory on stupidity and all that

Public debt is not amongst highest in world. Its now about 60% of GDP which is lower than the eurozone average, UK, USA and Japan. It's also falling.

Ireland house price are nominaly down by about 17% on 2007. Which in real terms is about 25% below peak of 2007 so prices have not been reinflated to bubble levels.

Graham

JamesMason wrote: »

Read the SBPost article then

I assume there is a specific SBPost article that does suggest a negative to one or both of those points?

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

I didn't suggest it was good/bad either way.

It does however appear to be diversifying the types of rental accommodation providers.
Build to rent does appear to have brought new developments to the rental market.

I'm struggling to see a negative in either of those things to be honest.

Sounds like a man who's bought a house and not really to concerned for the rest tbh. Build to rent is a disaster. Using up development sites, maintaining extortionate rents, utilising our scant building resources. The only positive is they will be the first to flee when a government has spine enough to tax them or the economy tanks.

Graham

Increased supply brings prices down. BTR is increasing supply. Naturally BTR will concentrate on the higher end of the market initially.

BTR cannot maintain extortionate rents, lack of supply is doing that.

So yes, I largely support BTR as it is increasing supply and supply is the only thing likely to make rents more affordable in the near term.

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

Increased supply brings prices down. BTR is increasing supply. Naturally BTR will concentrate on the higher end of the market initially.

BTR cannot maintain extortionate rents, lack of supply is doing that.

So yes, I largely support BTR as it is increasing supply and supply is the only thing likely to make rents more affordable in the near term.

If they are made to pay tax then yes, otherwise no. They're just here profiteering off the ridiculous rental situation FG Z let happen. It's free money from their perspective. They aren't here to increase affordable housing supply, they are simply here to scalp the Irish and send the profits back home.

JamesMason

OwlsZat wrote: »

Sounds like a man who's bought a house and not really to concerned for the rest tbh. Build to rent is a disaster. The only positive is they will be the first to flee when a government has spine enough to tax them or the economy tanks.

Agreed. With a global economy increasingly fragile, and coronavirus exacerbating the problems too - REITs could be the first to jump ship.

lawred2

OwlsZat wrote: »

Sounds like a man who's bought a house and not really to concerned for the rest tbh. Build to rent is a disaster. Using up development sites, maintaining extortionate rents, utilising our scant building resources. The only positive is they will be the first to flee when a government has spine enough to tax them or the economy tanks.

How is it a disaster?

A functioning housing market requires all types of housing types for all different types of market or need.

What do you propose? City center luxury social housing?

Graham

OwlsZat wrote: »

If they are made to pay tax then yez, otherwise no. They're just here profiteering off the ridiculous rental situation FG Z let happen. It's free money from their perspective. They aren't here to increase affordable housing supply, they are simply here to scalp the Irish and send the profits back home.

Stop soap boxing.

Of course they're not here to do it for altruistic reasons, nobody suggested they were.

They're here to get a return on their investment.

Excessive rents won't be sustainable if supply is brought to a level where it begins to meet demand.

Meeting demand is a better goal than getting in a tizzy over initial profits because the first will negate the second.

OwlsZat

lawred2 wrote: »

How is it a disaster?

A functioning housing market requires all types of housing types for all different types of market or need.

What do you propose? City center luxury social housing?

A functioning housing market?

What about our current housing market is functioning in your opinion?

Output, prices, % social, % BOT all botched and totally dysfunctional. Suggesting anything otherwise is totally disingenuous. I suggest a housing market where we create an equal taxing structure for resident/local and overseas and large scale landlords. The influx of overseas vulture fund landlords just tells you we've got it wrong. They are economic tyrants, willing to make a buck in any soft jurisdiction. We are soft so they are having us for lunch. It's gutless and gormless. Quite right FG were shot at the ballot box.

lawred2

OwlsZat wrote: »

A functioning housing market?

What about our current housing market is functioning in your opinion?

Output, prices, % social, % BOT all botched and totally dysfunctional. Suggesting anything otherwise is totally disingenuous. I suggest a housing market where we create an equal taxing structure for resident/local and overseas and large scale landlords. The influx of overseas vulture fund landlords just tells you we've got it wrong. They are economic tyrants, willing to make a buck in any soft jurisdiction. We are soft so they are having us for lunch. It's gutless and gormless. Quite right FG were shot at the ballot box.

Can you point out where I said that the Irish housing market was functioning?

Come down off your parapet with you prepared material and read what's posted.

OwlsZat

Graham wrote: »

Stop soap boxing.

Of course they're not here to do it for altruistic reasons, nobody suggested they were.

They're here to get a return on their investment.

Excessive rents won't be sustainable if supply is brought to a level where it begins to meet demand.

Meeting demand is a better goal than getting in a tizzy over initial profits because the first will negate the second.

Are people who disagree with your pap soapboxing? Land is expensive and resources are constrained. Suggesting increasing supply will force them out of the market dimwitted. Put them on a level playing field with small scale landlords. See if they are willing to stick around at 40% tax or if they just move on to the next opportunity. We are soft right now and they are extorting us in broad daylight.

OwlsZat

lawred2 wrote: »

Can you point out where I said that the Irish housing market was functioning?

Come down off your parapet with you prepared material and read what's posted.

The post I replied to included four reasons it's a disaster, instead of reading it you responded asking how it was a disaster. Maybe stop being a giant hypocrite and go back and read it yourself.

lawred2

OwlsZat wrote: »

The post I replied to included four reasons it's a disaster, instead of reading it you responded asking how it was a disaster. Maybe stop being a giant hypocrite and go back and read it yourself.

I did. Just one long exercise in hysterics. One after another.

What do you propose as an alternative? For city center developments? Luxury social housing?

I've no issue with taxing them by the way. But that's not a reason to conclude that BTR has no place in a functioning housing market. Can't see how BTR constitutes a disaster.

OwlsZat

lawred2 wrote: »

I did. Just one long exercise in hysterics. One after another.

What do you propose as an alternative? For city center developments? Luxury social housing?

My post after the last I asked you to read spelt out an easily achievable alternative. Maybe stop taking the piss and actually read the thread.

OwlsZat

This apathy for the housing marker and the plight of young people is why Sinn Fein was voted in. FG/FF have no real interest in bringing the prices down. Rather appealse the core voters by maintaining stupid property prices. Overseas vulture funds paying almost zero tax are playing a important role in this property price fixing scam.

Graham

OwlsZat wrote: »

Are people who disagree with your pap soapboxing? Land is expensive and resources are constrained. Suggesting increasing supply will force them out of the market dimwitted. Put them on a level playing field with small scale landlords. See if they are willing to stick around at 40% tax or if they just move on to the next opportunity. We are soft right now and they are extorting us in broad daylight.

Are you replying to another post?

I mentioned nothing about forcing anyone out of the market. I see no benefit to driving out investors.

You're the one suggesting there's going to be some long-term benefit to driving buy-to-rents out of the market.

coolshannagh28

Graham wrote: »

I don't recall diversification being mandated by the Troika.

I do recall government policy leaning towards a greater mix of the types of rental accommodation providers.

Part of this included increasing supply through build-to-rent schemes.

Maybe not mandated but strongly recommended ,FDI and US property and bank investment [Wilbur Ross ] was closely tied to the bailout and was strongly incentivised by tax breaks . While any investment including buy to rent is to be welcomed it should not come at and create a disadvantage for smaller investors . There are jitters in the market at the minute created by a hardening Brexit , coronavirus and Sinn Fein mouthing government , the upside is that possibly more pain will be felt where that capital originated.

Graham

I think it probably makes sense to diversify the landlord base and tax breaks are probably the most efficient way of achieving that diversification quickly.

Given the supply constrained rental market at the moment I don't see how that has changed the position of the smaller landlords even though they might understandably be disappointed at not getting the same tax breaks.

coolshannagh28

Graham wrote: »

I think it probably makes sense to diversify the landlord base and tax breaks are probably the most efficient way of achieving that diversification quickly.

Given the supply constrained rental market at the moment I don't see how that has changed the position of the smaller landlords even though they might understandably be disappointed at not getting the same tax breaks.

It does make sense to diversify the landlord base but its always easier to find a tax break to make the ultrarich richer than invest in and level the market for all investors.

Graham

Out of curiosity, which of the BTR developments have an ultrarich owner?

So, I went to see 3 properties yesterday. Approx 40 people at all.
1st property, was second open viewing, they had 30something the first week, no offers.
2nd property has been on the market a few months, no offers yet.
3rd property had a sale agreed at 30 grand under asking & sale fell through, now one offer at 40 grand under, they are holding out for a little more.
All houses needed some work.
So, just anecdotal, viewings definitely up, but houses needing work are still a little over priced.

Graham

What part of the country bubblypop?

beauf

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Maybe not mandated but strongly recommended ,FDI and US property and bank investment [Wilbur Ross ] was closely tied to the bailout and was strongly incentivised by tax breaks . While any investment including buy to rent is to be welcomed it should not come at and create a disadvantage for smaller investors . There are jitters in the market at the minute created by a hardening Brexit , coronavirus and Sinn Fein mouthing government , the upside is that possibly more pain will be felt where that capital originated.

Do you have any links where it was strongly recommended?

It not investment thats creating disadvantage. Its Govt Policy.

Its Govt policy that compounding this housing crisis.