Property Market 2020

lastusername

random_banter wrote: »

Have been keeping an eye (basically nearly every day) on properties in South and Central Dublin for 4-5 months, properties are flying up (to the likes of DAFT etc.) since the election.

Reckon there's a lot more confidence now with Brexit 'done' (as in the UK having finally officially left the EU), and the election over. I'd say prices will increase slightly through the year.

19233974

lastusername wrote: »

Reckon there's a lot more confidence now with Brexit 'done' (as in the UK having finally officially left the EU), and the election over. I'd say prices will increase slightly through the year.

we hope, another election probably on the cards and looks like no body will be fixing the housing market anytime soon

tolow

Not sure if this is the best place to post but my partner and I have been looking at some new developments but seen a property we really like on the secondhand market.

I'm just wondering how is it going with properties when it comes to bidding? How much extra on the price advertised do houses typically go for? When bidding starts on houses how much do they usually increase with each bid?

I done some digging on the house advertised and realised it has been on the market since October at the same price.

Deco99

tolow wrote: »

Not sure if this is the best place to post but my partner and I have been looking at some new developments but seen a property we really like on the secondhand market.

I'm just wondering how is it going with properties when it comes to bidding? How much extra on the price advertised do houses typically go for? When bidding starts on houses how much do they usually increase with each bid?

I done some digging on the house advertised and realised it has been on the market since October at the same price.

Each case is different, no joke. I've been bidding on houses that barely reached asking even though bidding was going up in 5s, ones that have gone 30% over going up in 2s. It depends on what's the alternatives, second hand that's close to new build price points won't increase too much, while the crap at lower end is getting bid on until it meets the price of the less crap band of houses. Certainly not any deals out there

Deco99

Came on to ask a question. How much of a deposit would you put down if the payments were manageable regardless? As little as possible, as much as possible. There'll be repair needed so have to keep some back

Padre_Pio

Deco99 wrote: »

Came on to ask a question. How much of a deposit would you put down if the payments were manageable regardless? As little as possible, as much as possible. There'll be repair needed so have to keep some back

Personally the minimum.

Better to have money in the bank for unexpected issues and delays in renovation. Overpay with whatever is left after.

tolow

tolow wrote: »

Not sure if this is the best place to post but my partner and I have been looking at some new developments but seen a property we really like on the secondhand market.

I'm just wondering how is it going with properties when it comes to bidding? How much extra on the price advertised do houses typically go for? When bidding starts on houses how much do they usually increase with each bid?

I done some digging on the house advertised and realised it has been on the market since October at the same price.

It really depends on the location.
Some second hand market in Dublin are hanging around for months!
If you can move into them, they are gone pretty quick.
I don't know about the rest of the country

JamesMason

lastusername wrote: »

Reckon there's a lot more confidence now with Brexit 'done' (as in the UK having finally officially left the EU), and the election over. I'd say prices will increase slightly through the year.

Brexit is far from done, no offence. We're through round 1. Round 2 is when the fight starts, and it will soon get very nasty indeed in the months ahead.

auris00

Deco99 wrote: »

Came on to ask a question. How much of a deposit would you put down if the payments were manageable regardless? As little as possible, as much as possible. There'll be repair needed so have to keep some back

Higher deposit/lower mortgage always if possible. Calculate all options and see how much of a difference in interest you'll pay to the bank with a higher mortgage, maybe it's acceptable to you..

19233974

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/tenants-are-signing-leases-for-their-new-homes-without-even-viewing-the-property-38970301.html

1 bed: €1550
2 bed: €1990
3 bed: €2499

gotta love a housing market so dysfunctional that these bargains are snapped up without even viewings. Sure why would a investors ever bother selling properties

JJJackal

19233974 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/tenants-are-signing-leases-for-their-new-homes-without-even-viewing-the-property-38970301.html

1 bed: €1550
2 bed: €1990
3 bed: €2499

gotta love a housing market so dysfunctional that these bargains are snapped up without even viewings. Sure why would a investors ever bother selling properties

These are supposed to be top of the range. You can move out after a month if you dont like it:

"No worries! We think you’ll love the apartment, but if you don’t, just tell us within the first 7 days after you move in and you can move out at the end of the first month without losing your deposit (assuming there is no wear and tear). Don’t forget, there are pictures and individual floor plans online to help you make your decision."

Also note TV and wifi, gym, loga, cinema room etc are included

From the Vesta website.

These probably are bargains - you are also paying a convenience premium. Setting up TV and internet, finding a gym etc takes time and you are commiting to a year or more.

pearcider

19233974 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/tenants-are-signing-leases-for-their-new-homes-without-even-viewing-the-property-38970301.html

1 bed: €1550
2 bed: €1990
3 bed: €2499

gotta love a housing market so dysfunctional that these bargains are snapped up without even viewings. Sure why would a investors ever bother selling properties

1550 for a one bed in Clongriffin. This madness will end soon.

JJJackal

pearcider wrote: »

1550 for a one bed in Clongriffin. This madness will end soon.

Have you looked at what you get for 1550?

pearcider

JJJackal wrote: »

Have you looked at what you get for 1550?

Spare me your “superior living” sales pitch. Economic reality is closer than you think.

JJJackal

pearcider wrote: »

Spare me your “superior living” sales pitch. Economic reality is closer than you think.

I didnt say superior living-

I am pointing out that the 1550 covers tv internet and gym in addition to hot desking (which some people want).

So a comparable property in the area would rent for lets say 1300 but you would pay the utilities yourself. It is important to compare like with like

19233974

JJJackal wrote: »

Have you looked at what you get for 1550?

yes i think thats what he is referring to by "this madness"

Stark

For someone moving to the country for the first time, being able to pick up a short term let without viewing first sounds like a good deal. I'm sure if I was moving to Ireland from abroad, I'd spend a month or two there first before picking up something more affordable when I've had time to settle in a bit.

Wouldn't be surprised actually if the rent money wasn't coming out of the pockets of the people staying there but was being paid for by the likes of Google/Facebook as part of relocation packages.

crisco10

JJJackal wrote: »

I didnt say superior living-

I am pointing out that the 1550 covers tv internet and gym in addition to hot desking (which some people want).

So a comparable property in the area would rent for lets say 1300 but you would pay the utilities yourself. It is important to compare like with like

I see where you're going with that. The 1 beds arent great value still though. But the 2 beds for €2k isn't horrific when you factor in the extras by 2.

So share with someone and you get nice, new apartment, gym, tv, internet and other bills for €1k. That's a reasonable deal. Not a "bite your hand off" one, but I can definitely see the value in it for some.

Regarding the letting off plans, thats a bit of a nothing story if you can get out no strings within the 1st week. You effectively are getting a week long showing there.

OwlsZat

Overheard a person talking about Clancy Quay, saying P1&2 were nice, which they are I've been. However, they were saying P3 the recently built newer part is full of box room apartments and they are looking 2.1k for a one bed. Can anyone confirm this is or isn't the case? Absolutely sheer madness if this is the case, it's no wonder young people are increasingly living at home long into their 20s.

19233974

Stark wrote: »

For someone moving to the country for the first time, being able to pick up a short term let without viewing first sounds like a good deal. I'm sure if I was moving to Ireland from abroad, I'd spend a month or two there first before picking up something more affordable when I've had time to settle in a bit.

Wouldn't be surprised actually if the rent money wasn't coming out of the pockets of the people staying there but was being paid for by the likes of Google/Facebook as part of relocation packages.

which is great and there is a market for this, although a niche one. Problem is, these are the only type of rental accommodation being built and unfortunately not everyone works for google/ fb and earns over 100k!

JamesMason

OwlsZat wrote: »

Overheard a person talking about Clancy Quay, saying P1&2 were nice, which they are I've been. However, they were saying P3 the recently built newer part is full of box room apartments and they are looking 2.1k for a one bed.

Madness indeed. Unsustainable IMO... it'll hurt when things go pop.

Assetbacked

Further stories of how fcuked the crisis is;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

"Only about 8,000 of the 21,000 new homes built in the Republic last year were offered for sale on the open market, according to the Construction Industry Federation.

The federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year."

"The federation says that the €386,000 average cost of a home in Dublin is now beyond most would-be first-time buyers. It argues that a young couple with a combined income of €94,000 would still be unable to get a mortgage that would allow them to buy a home at that price."

A whole generation is being screwed at the moment and the recent election is only the tip of the iceberg, the longer the situation goes on as more people are shuffled into the slaughterhouse of a rental market to be carved up to give "returns" to vultures. Supply needs to double and prices as well as rents must drop significantly, with strong political efforts to ensure that this occurs. Otherwise, where does it lead? Rise of far left parties? Irish EU exit voting in protest? The recent election could just be the beginning of people voting as a protest against the economic destruction being inflicted on society the past few years. I'd rather a stable situation in Ireland.

Knex*

OwlsZat wrote: »

Overheard a person talking about Clancy Quay, saying P1&2 were nice, which they are I've been. However, they were saying P3 the recently built newer part is full of box room apartments and they are looking 2.1k for a one bed. Can anyone confirm this is or isn't the case? Absolutely sheer madness if this is the case, it's no wonder young people are increasingly living at home long into their 20s.

And they look a bit grim from the outside too.

I live in Phase 2 currently, and have to say that the standard is excellent. Viewed a few different ones when we were first looking to move in too, and between the new builds and the renovations of the reserved buildings, they did a good job.

But looking at the phase 3, they look like they were from completely different builders and very much a money grab. Obviously that's a massive assumption without seeing the inside, but the above wouldn't surprise me at all if the outside is anything to go by.

The_Conductor

Aka- one central plank of any reform has to remove the incentive from Vulture funds/REITs and other investors- to buy new property for the purpose of letting it. The figures quoted in the article are even worse than some articles from a few weeks ago (which suggested it was around the 10k mark).

We need to level the playing field for prospective owner occupiers- in such a way that there is not a perverse incentive for REITs and other investors to buy residential property for the purpose of letting it.

We also need to create a level playing pitch between the different types of landlords- so they are all taxed in a similar manner- and you're not slaughtering people with 1 property while letting the REIT with 200 properties off scott free.

N.Gerstmann

JamesMason wrote: »

Madness indeed. Unsustainable IMO... it'll hurt when things go pop.

I've been hearing people talking about this supposedly imminent 'next crash' for 5 years now. 2008 is not going to happen again. Not anytime soon anyway.

AlmightyCushion

The_Conductor wrote: »

Aka- one central plank of any reform has to remove the incentive from Vulture funds/REITs and other investors- to buy new property for the purpose of letting it. The figures quoted in the article are even worse than some articles from a few weeks ago (which suggested it was around the 10k mark).

They're actually not, they are lower than that. If you read the article you will see it is less than 10k.

The federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year.

That's a total of 8,000. Another 5,000 are one off houses which the article doesn't count as hitting the open market which is fair enough but they are still bought by individuals as opposed to REITs.

BluePlanet

But how does this all come to an end?
It's different this time.
Last time was a credit bubble, once our bank's creditors turned off the taps, everything downstream dried up quick.
This time is restricted supply.
Government building houses will help, opening up land for developing, incentivize home/apartment construction.
But this will still take a half decade to ramp up.

JJJackal

BluePlanet wrote: »

But how does this all come to an end?
It's different this time.
Last time was a credit bubble, once our bank's creditors turned off the taps, everything downstream dried up quick.
This time is restricted supply.
Government building houses will help, opening up land for developing, incentivize home/apartment construction.
But this will still take a half decade to ramp up.

You need supply to outstrip demand at some point. This could be many years away

Assetbacked

BluePlanet wrote: »

But how does this all come to an end?
It's different this time.
Last time was a credit bubble, once our bank's creditors turned off the taps, everything downstream dried up quick.
This time is restricted supply.
Government building houses will help, opening up land for developing, incentivize home/apartment construction.
But this will still take a half decade to ramp up.

While political measures can be taken to try to shape the housing market, the bigger impact is likely to be outside of Irish political influence; the multinational, big tech company slowdown. Many of these companies have continuously and aggressively expanded their operations in Ireland (and Dublin in particular) in recent years but it is widely accepted that the growth of these companies cannot be sustained, with estimates that the S&P500 (i.e. Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft etc.) is already well overdue a climb down with its consistent achieving of record highs. What causes this slowdown could be anything; more regulation on big tech companies in terms of data protection or enforcement of anti-trust laws, international harmonisation of tax regimes making it less attractive to continue growing in one particular country, Trump not being re-elected etc. The certainty is that no one knows the cause or the timing.

A lot of the staff of these companies in Dublin are involved in the customer relationship and sales roles, which are jobs that are first to get the chop when there are less customers or stalling/struggling sales. What do Facebook even offer as a company other than advertising abilities on their social media apps; Instagram and Facebook? As such, probably the biggest factor in correcting the rental market will come from reduced demand for rentals as the continuous expansion of these multinational, big tech companies slows or reduces resulting in less staff looking for places to rent. Supply of course will increase at the same time which should also contribute.

It seems to me the FG (and FF) government were ideologically happy to see a big landlord class devlop to own housing with the people renting these properties.

Much like the European model of a renting population rather than owner occupiers.