Property Market 2020

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

It seems to me the FG (and FF) government were ideologically happy to see a big landlord class devlop to own housing with the people renting these properties.

Much like the European model of a renting population rather than owner occupiers.

Stats don't bare this out.
1) Numbers of Irish landlords are in freefall- this is highlighted by the RTB
2) Rental tradition differs in different EU countries- for various reasons such as over 80% of residences in Spain are owner occupied- while the average portion of a person's income for rent in Germany is 27% of their net income.
3) Landlords are treated as running businesses on the continent- and the residential accommodation is an asset that depreciates- such as the flatrate 3% deduction per annum allowed to landlords in Germany (ontop of usual costs).
4) The EU model- is long term rental of wholly unfurnished units- which we have made illegal in Ireland.

I could go on and on. Yes, its a roof over people's heads- but you really are comparing apples with oranges.

garhjw

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It seems to me the FG (and FF) government were ideologically happy to see a big landlord class devlop to own housing with the people renting these properties.

Much like the European model of a renting population rather than owner occupiers.

What’s a “landlord class”?

Viscount Aggro

The new Clongriffin apartments are all HAP tenants.
Its in article on RTE website now.

baldbear

Viscount Aggro wrote: »

The new Clongriffin apartments are all HAP tenants.
Its in article on RTE website now.

They aren't all HAP. The majority are from abroad who made relevant bookings online.


https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0218/1116105-vesta-apartments-twinlite/

Assetbacked

Viscount Aggro wrote: »

The new Clongriffin apartments are all HAP tenants.
Its in article on RTE website now.

The article says many came from abroad with some from HAP. There is something murky with these apartments, that I am not quite able to put my finger on.

garhjw

Assetbacked wrote: »

The article says many came from abroad with some from HAP. There is something murky with these apartments, that I am not quite able to put my finger on.

What makes you think that? This type of letting is common in many countries - professional set up with value add services bundled in.

baldbear

Assetbacked wrote: »

The article says many came from abroad with some from HAP. There is something murky with these apartments, that I am not quite able to put my finger on.

It stinks that investment funds are coming here and buying places just to rent. That wont lead to any sustainable communities. But i suppose we are seen as a easy place to make a quick buck tax free.

Brexit has led to Dublin been targeted as a place to put lots of investments into property.

https://www.theinvestor.jll/news/ireland/others/ireland-sees-record-investment-driven-by-foreign-capital/

declanflynn

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It seems to me the FG (and FF) government were ideologically happy to see a big landlord class devlop to own housing with the people renting these properties.

Much like the European model of a renting population rather than owner occupiers.

if it's good enough for the rest of Europe it should be good enough for us

BluePlanet

We don't have the strong tenancy laws here though.

Met a girl from Brazil that was sharing a house with 26 others somewhere off Cabra Rd.
There were 6 girls in her room, she was paying 350 pm.
3 cookers in the house and a couple fridges.
I didn't ask about the bathroom or washing machine, can only imagine.

I guess this is the 'market deciding'.

Gotta wonder why doesn't an aspiring journalist create an investigating report on this sort of thing.
It would probably be easy to gain access to these houses, camera in tow, when there are so many ppl coming and going.

Wanderer78

BluePlanet wrote:

Gotta wonder why doesn't an aspiring journalist create an investigating report on this sort of thing. It would probably be easy to gain access to these houses, camera in tow, when there are so many ppl coming and going.

....resulting in 27 foreigners being instantly made homeless, they know the story, they won't be allowing any journalist in the door

BluePlanet

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....resulting in 27 foreigners being instantly made homeless, they know the story, they won't be allowing any journalist in the door

They'd probably get emergency accomodation in a hotel.

Wanderer78

BluePlanet wrote:

They'd probably get emergency accomodation in a hotel.

Maybe, maybe not, tis all a bit risky, maybe some of them are here illegally, maybe some of them work illegally, who knows

BluePlanet

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not, tis all a bit risky, maybe some of them are here illegally, maybe some of them work illegally, who knows

So it's better to protect the abuse of our letting laws?
This is wrong, turning a blind eye won't fix it.

The CAB should be involved and recoup the illegal rent that LL has been getting.

The Student

BluePlanet wrote: »

They'd probably get emergency accomodation in a hotel.

Thereby taking hotel accommodation from tourists and the money they would spend in Ireland.

Wanderer78

BluePlanet wrote:

So it's better to protect the abuse of our letting laws? This is wrong, turning a blind eye won't fix it.

Of course not, but I can somewhat understand why those foreigners end up in those type of situations, it's a bloody mess

The Student

BluePlanet wrote: »

So it's better to protect the abuse of our letting laws?
This is wrong, turning a blind eye won't fix it.

The CAB should be involved and recoup the illegal rent that LL has been getting.

Exactly where has anybody suggested abusing letting laws. Tenants can contact the RTB whenever they want, Threshold are all over facebook advising of tenant rights.

CAB is used for criminal activity this is a civil matter.

BluePlanet

The Student wrote: »

Thereby taking hotel accommodation from tourists and the money they would spend in Ireland.

Theres no shortage of AirBnb here.
Have to say i have not read reports of tourists not able to find a hotel, BnB or AirBnb before.

Dav010

Interesting segment in The Last Word yesterday, business segment just after 6pm news, it is available on podcast. It was about apartment developments in Dublin City. The business editor said almost all big developments currently under construction are for rental only, none are going to be available for sale. Most have forward funding instead of forward purchase finance from lenders/investors, so when developers finish building, they go to rental market based on financial funding plan for set rental levels. In other words, the finance is based on a minimum rental yield being achieved. He said there is currently a new development beside the IFSC which has only 50% occupation, but the Institutional investor will not drop rent because they know with new IT companies opening near there, they will get what they want.

This is the professional landlordism that many on here have been calling for over the past few years.

dubrov

BluePlanet wrote:

Gotta wonder why doesn't an aspiring journalist create an investigating report on this sort of thing. It would probably be easy to gain access to these houses, camera in tow, when there are so many ppl coming and going.

Prime Time did a major story on overcrowding about a year ago

DellyBelly

BluePlanet wrote: »

Met a girl from Brazil that was sharing a house with 26 others somewhere off Cabra Rd.
There were 6 girls in her room, she was paying 350 pm.

So that is 27 people in the house at 350 a month. Nearly 10k a month for the owner of the house...Nice little earner there

BluePlanet

DellyBelly wrote: »

So that is 27 people in the house at 350 a month. Nearly 10k a month for the owner of the house...Nice little earner there

Cash in hand too.
That's why we need CAB involved, even if it requires primary legislation to make this a criminal offense.

The Student

BluePlanet wrote: »

Theres no shortage of AirBnb here.
Have to say i have not read reports of tourists not able to find a hotel, BnB or AirBnb before.

There was details on the media where people were being housed in hotels where saying they being told they would have to leave because the rooms were booked by tourists.

With St Patricks day coming and Easter, the summer demand for hotels etc increases significantly.

The Student

Dav010 wrote: »

Interesting segment in The Last Word yesterday, business segment just after 6pm news, it is available on podcast. It was about apartment developments in Dublin City. The business editor said almost all big developments currently under construction are for rental only, none are going to be available for sale. Most have forward funding instead of forward purchase finance from lenders/investors, so when developers finish building, they go to rental market based on financial funding plan for set rental levels. In other words, the finance is based on a minimum rental yield being achieved. He said there is currently a new development beside the IFSC which has only 50% occupation, but the Institutional investor will not drop rent because they know with new IT companies opening near there, they will get what they want.

This is the professional landlordism that many on here have been calling for over the past few years.

This is exactly what a lot of posters boards have highlighted on numerous occasions and the implications of same.

Perhaps the small landlord is not the bad afterall!

woohoo!!!

I live in a large town, 20k population. The only estates being built or just started are housing bodies or county council's. Very slow on the private front.

OwlsZat

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I live in a large town, 20k population. The only estates being built or just started are housing bodies or county council's. Very slow on the private front.

Council houses increasing
Private houses for sale falling
Apartments build to let increasing
Hotels decreasing?

They should be breaking out the numbers. It looks very grim out there. I do wonder if we're heading into a slow down. I share with a chef who works across 3 restaurants owned by the same owner. They had a meeting Monday where the owner said a new recession had started he just wasnt sure if it was going to be a big or a small one. We need a recession watch thread!

Wanderer78

OwlsZat wrote: »

Council houses increasing
Private houses for sale falling
Apartments build to let increasing
Hotels decreasing?

They should be breaking out the numbers. It looks very grim out there. I do wonder if we're heading into a slow down. I share with a chef who works across 3 restaurants owned by the same owner. They had a meeting Monday where the owner said a new recession had started he just wasnt sure if it was going to be a big or a small one. We need a recession watch thread!

and with corona virus slowly shutting down china, this could all get very interesting, very soon

SozBbz

OwlsZat wrote: »

Council houses increasing
Private houses for sale falling
Apartments build to let increasing
Hotels decreasing?

They should be breaking out the numbers. It looks very grim out there. I do wonder if we're heading into a slow down. I share with a chef who works across 3 restaurants owned by the same owner. They had a meeting Monday where the owner said a new recession had started he just wasnt sure if it was going to be a big or a small one. We need a recession watch thread!

There is literally always someone saying we're about to be in recession.

A stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.

*I was trying to book a table for two this Saturday night about 2 weeks in advance. First 4 places I tried had no availability. Good restaurants are going like the clappers.

BluePlanet

Professional LL's are fine, but it's possible we just need some more regulation and enforcement to mold it the way we want.

J_1980

OwlsZat wrote: »

Council houses increasing
Private houses for sale falling
Apartments build to let increasing
Hotels decreasing?

They should be breaking out the numbers. It looks very grim out there. I do wonder if we're heading into a slow down. I share with a chef who works across 3 restaurants owned by the same owner. They had a meeting Monday where the owner said a new recession had started he just wasnt sure if it was going to be a big or a small one. We need a recession watch thread!

Nearly all western stock markets are currently sitting at multi-year or all time highs. I rather trust that, than some anecdotal evidence.
There will be a recession in late 21/early 22 I think though. Average boom lasts 10y max and despite the stock market bottom in 2009, I think the recession was only truly over in 2012 (Irish, US housing markets both bottomed there): 2012+10=2022

Next recession will be vastly different though. No banking and housing crash (too little loose lending/easy money and therefore lack of mal-investment, except for China and some pockets of US corporate debt).
It’ll be an earnings recession, drawn out multiple years where the government has to cut back due to falling tax receipts. Most western government will struggle though due to the ridiculously narrow tax base. Expect eur/usd well below parity....

OwlsZat

SozBbz wrote: »

There is literally always someone saying we're about to be in recession.

A stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.

*I was trying to book a table for two this Saturday night about 2 weeks in advance. First 4 places I tried had no availability. Good restaurants are going like the clappers.

SozBbz...

I did specifically state we needed a thread for recession watch observations. Also, your four restaurants's sampled aren't enough to model any population so your observations are mealiness. Not sure if you've been following economic trends we've been in a "slowdown" since 3rd quarter 2019. We've not broken out of that trend as far as I've seen.