Property Market 2020

lastusername

19233974 wrote: »

Ive been holding off waiting to see how the housing market would pan out, but think im going to go full steam ahead to buy a place. The housing market is a basket case and the government wont fix it, that ive become certain of.

Maybe there will be a recession in the next 5 years, maybe there wont....but the overwhelming shortage of accommodation means property prices are unlikely to tank, together with the vested interests of all the institutional landlords and investors.

I can see dublin ending up like san francisco at this rate and it will not be a nice place to live if you cant afford your own place

Exactly. You're not buying a house as an investment or to flip, it's hopefully somewhere you're going to be for the next 20-40+ years. There will be many recessions and booms, big and small in that timeframe!


We're looking to buy soon but have been surprised how few bids there are on those we do bid on. It's above the average sale price though.

beggars_bush

Went to see a house selling for 495K yesterday in north dublin city, seller had dropped the price

Luckily I was just picking up some furniture.
Lovely house though

nhoj88

beggars_bush wrote: »

Went to see a house selling for 495K yesterday in north dublin city, seller had dropped the price

Luckily I was just picking up some furniture.
Lovely house though

??

lastusername

nhoj88 wrote: »

??

I assume the seller is selling some furniture before they move?! No great mystery

Mic 1972

lastusername wrote: »

I assume the seller is selling some furniture before they move?! No great mystery

or the viewer was planning to lift some items

pearcider

19233974 wrote: »

Ive been holding off waiting to see how the housing market would pan out, but think im going to go full steam ahead to buy a place. The housing market is a basket case and the government wont fix it, that ive become certain of.

Maybe there will be a recession in the next 5 years, maybe there wont....but the overwhelming shortage of accommodation means property prices are unlikely to tank, together with the vested interests of all the institutional landlords and investors.

I can see dublin ending up like san francisco at this rate and it will not be a nice place to live if you cant afford your own place

Dublin as the new San Francisco...ha. You can forget maybe 5 years for the next recession. The economic data has been worsening since last summer...I was thinking next year but now with COV19 as the catalyst (although the massive global debt bubble had to pop eventually) I’m now certain a major global recession will happen this year. My prediction is both rents and property prices will fall significantly this year too.

lastusername

Mic 1972 wrote: »

or the viewer was planning to lift some items

Free for all :pac:

beggars_bush

Yeah, vendor was selling a few bits.

He said he found it hard to get it sold, Whitehall area off Collins avenue

The_Conductor

beggars_bush wrote: »

He said he found it hard to get it sold, Whitehall area off Collins avenue

Not exactly a desirable area?

crossman47

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not exactly a desirable area?

Why not? The amount of this type of snobbery I see makes me sick.

Sweet.Science

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not exactly a desirable area?

Really

optogirl

I would consider Whitehall to be a grand area

SozBbz

The_Conductor wrote: »

Not exactly a desirable area?

Its not the most desirable area in Dublin but not exactly undesirable either.... weird comment IMO.

Also its within the M50, which for a lot of people is more than they can hope for.

accensi0n

Guess everyone missed that it was a question.

SozBbz

accensi0n wrote: »

Guess everyone missed that it was a question.

Its a statement with a question mark at the end.

At best, its a question with a healthy heaping of judgement/preconception attached.

sweetie

beggars_bush wrote: »

Yeah, vendor was selling a few bits.

He said he found it hard to get it sold, Whitehall area off Collins avenue

Not far from Beaumount hospital, DCU, M50, Santry shopping centre etc. Maybe he was looking for too much initially.

beggars_bush

Just not enough interest in a 495K house

Mic 1972

Whitehall is like Cabra, for an inner M50 it isn't the most appealing area

The_Conductor

accensi0n wrote: »

Guess everyone missed that it was a question.

It was a question- because I don't know the area at all.
It wouldn't leap to mind from other threads in this forum as somewhere you'd expect to see properties going at 495k.
It was a genuine question- on the basis of my limited knowledge- as to whether a 495k price tag would be an outlier for the general area...…..

SozBbz

sweetie wrote: »

Not far from Beaumount hospital, DCU, M50, Santry shopping centre etc. Maybe he was looking for too much initially.

Exactly, its not an unsalable area. Pleanty of demand based on all of the above.

There are a lot of things I'd look at before writing off the area.

Is the house modern and well kept?
Does it have a decent BER?
Is it in a bad location (ie adjacent to a lane/row of shops/petrol station) or similar that might be putting people off
Was it well presented for sale?
Is the price comparable for the area? All we know is its a house in Whitehall, is it a 3 bed, 4 bed, terrace, semi....?

I know of houses going in Drumcondra (not a million miles away) for €800k+ and still needing work. I can see people paying 500 in Whitehall if the property is decent, but as I say we know no more about it.

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Whitehall is like Cabra, for an inner M50 it isn't the most appealing area

Agree, its not the most appealing area but its not exactly unappealing either. Its a mature area and close to many amenities etc, that will always attract some interest.

PommieBast

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Whitehall is like Cabra, for an inner M50 it isn't the most appealing area

As an aside anyone know how the Bannow & Carnlough Road areas have fared since the Luas extension was built? Broombridge had an awful reputation not that long ago...

Mic 1972

PommieBast wrote: »

As an aside anyone know how the Bannow & Carnlough Road areas have fared since the Luas extension was built? Broombridge had an awful reputation not that long ago...

The Luas station looks grand, the area around it gives me the chill to be honest. I wouldn't like to walk home from there

optogirl

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Luas station looks grand, the area around it gives me the chill to be honest. I wouldn't like to walk home from there

It's not the prettiest but I've lived in Cabra for 40 years and never had any problems. I use both the Cabra & Broombridge stations all the time - much improved lighting wise etc since the Luas

lastusername

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The Luas station looks grand, the area around it gives me the chill to be honest. I wouldn't like to walk home from there

The Luas is actually clean and quiet and it has improved and brightened up the area a lot - it was pretty bleak when it was just the train station. I used to live further up the canal and would walk up the canal after dark. It's a pretty industrial area but it's grand.



You also get lots of other people coming off the Luas walking up, so it's not like it's deserted either.

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

Dublin as the new San Francisco...ha. You can forget maybe 5 years for the next recession. The economic data has been worsening since last summer...I was thinking next year but now with COV19 as the catalyst (although the massive global debt bubble had to pop eventually) I’m now certain a major global recession will happen this year. My prediction is both rents and property prices will fall significantly this year too.

What are you basing that on just your gut??

Mic 1972

pearcider wrote: »

Dublin as the new San Francisco...ha. You can forget maybe 5 years for the next recession. The economic data has been worsening since last summer...I was thinking next year but now with COV19 as the catalyst (although the massive global debt bubble had to pop eventually) I’m now certain a major global recession will happen this year. My prediction is both rents and property prices will fall significantly this year too.

I feel same, this is going to be a year to watch

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I feel same, this is going to be a year to watch

But on what basis?? Their is no credit bubble this time, supply is still no where near where it needs to be and will be decades before it sufficiently ramped up. Even if the shinners got in and chucked billions at it the work force is not here any more to build, add in international rental companies (vulture funds) are taking over half the new stock currently being created and rent prices are as much if not more than a mortgage these days....I understand there are external forces such as brexit has a way to go, corona virus and Trump in the U.S but to date none of these 3 have hit the country too hard YET and I say YET as it may well do in the furture. But its all speculation and gut feeling the points above this are facts and not a guessing game.

Or to spin this another way if the banks were allowed to ignore the 80/20 rule and the 3.5 of your pay allowed to be borrowed house prices would fly up.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

But on what basis?? Their is no credit bubble this time, supply is still no where near where it needs to be and will be decades before it sufficiently ramped up. Even if the shinners got in and chucked billions at it the work force is not here any more to build, add in international rental companies (vulture funds) are taking over half the new stock currently being created and rent prices are as much if not more than a mortgage these days....I understand there are external forces such as brexit has a way to go, corona virus and Trump in the U.S but to date none of these 3 have hit the country too hard YET and I say YET as it may well do in the furture. But its all speculation and gut feeling the points above this are facts and not a guessing game.

Or to spin this another way if the banks were allowed to ignore the 80/20 rule and the 3.5 of your pay allowed to be borrowed house prices would fly up.

Banks do lend more than 3.5 now, the lending process for some reason seems more "flexible" that it was initially. Consider also how many people have taken a loan in the last few years since the economy recovery. That's a lot of money that is currently only borrowed. All it takes is an economy slow down and people struggling to pay mortgages and we are back to the old days again
Personally i doubt there will be another crash, but things will scale down this year. As for the virus, that's such an unpredictable factor, we have no idea how it will impact the world dynamics, but as a general rule, uncertainty is never good for the economy

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Banks do lend more than 3.5 now, the lending process for some reason seems more "flexible" that it was initially. Consider also how many people have taken a loan in the last few years since the economy recovery. That's a lot of money that is currently only borrowed. All it takes is an economy slow down and people struggling to pay mortgages and we are back to the old days again
Personally i doubt there will be another crash, but things will scale down this year. As for the virus, that's such an unpredictable factor, we have no idea how it will impact the world dynamics, but as a general rule, uncertainty is never good for the economy

I though the bank only lent 3.5 and than 1 times the salary of the partner on the lower wage?? also has there not been more growth projected in Ireland this year? the unpredictable factor can go be positive or negative and the thing that people seem to forget is that even in the worse recession ever seen in the country back in 2009/10/11 very few were turfed out of the family home, most people lost investments or 2nd properties but the family home was hard to repossess.

I just find the fundamentals are here for house prices to go higher and that people saying they will drop are going on guess work .