Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Perhaps we shouldn't get too excited for news this evening.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184528909850812416

Well, it is an EU negotiation. They never finish till the small hours! Ever!

Infini

is_that_so wrote: »

Another version of where the DUP might be at!

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1184362807523008513

Brown Envelope 2: Return of the backhander.

I mean seriously bribing the DUP worked so well the last time didn't it but wait a sec they didnt actually GET the money last time tho right? :P

A Shropshire Lad

So, the UK is negotiating with the EU in Brussels, and Boris is still negotiating with the ERG and DUP in London.
I dont understand how that works

is_that_so

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

So, the UK is negotiating with the EU in Brussels, and Boris is still negotiating with the ERG and DUP in London.
I dont understand how that works

Eu-> Actual deal - DUP, ERG-> Votes to pass the deal!

Imreoir2

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Regarding NI; If it all comes to pass, and the NI Assembly consent vote every 4 years gets the rubber stamp, it could have the effect of re-cementing the polarised politics of the north with no return to the pre-brexit moderation of NI politics we had begun to see. Everything will be framed as nationalists trying to pull NI out of the UK and vice versa.

To think it's not even four years since people were widely commenting on how much the "middle ground" in NI politics had grown and parties like the Alliance were a mainstay at the big table. This whole fiasco has been such a mess.

As long as the mechanism does not allow the DUP to veto NI entering or remaning in the arangement, then it may well settle down fairly quickly once it is in opperation for a few years. There is little enough electoral hay to be made in trying to undermine the economic stability of your own people, at least not in the long term. It may well be the case that for all their hot air now, like with the GFA, the DUP will be defenders of these arangements in years to come.

If the DUP does not settle down on the issue, it might suit nationalists in NI well enough to have an economic realignment over time away from GB to the EU and the rest of Ireland in the background, while publicly the maintenance of the union with the UK represents a constant threat to the economic wellbeing of the six counties.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But it's still economic madness to have to have such a debate every 4 years. Very destabilising for business.

Latest survey by NI Chamber of Commerce
(77%) of respondents believe a recession is likely in the next six to 12 months.

And Half of those who took part in the survey have scaled back or put on hold investment plans so it's going to have lasting effects.

A Shropshire Lad

is_that_so wrote: »

DUP, ERG-> Votes to pass the deal!

Is that enough to pass it ?

is_that_so

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Is that enough to pass it ?

It may not be but they are on his side, in name anyway, and if they vote No it's dead.

Imreoir2

Gintonious wrote: »

So, can someone clear this up for me.

If this deal goes through, does the rest of the UK still leave the SM and CU? So in essence they get their hard Brexit at the expense of NI?

If this deal goes through there would be a transition period during which nothing changes, with a swift election and after that who knows. It would be for whatever government is elected to decide if they want GB to leave the SM and CU.

If they do go for a hard Brexit for GB, then it will not be at NI's expence, or at least not as much of an expence as NI being included in that hard Brexit would have been.

Itssoeasy

So according to British government sources there will be no deal done tonight.

A Shropshire Lad

Havent heard much mention of Canada ++ recently.

devnull

Won't be a deal tonight as unable to reach agreement.

Makes you think that it could be about attributing blame by going right to the wire and saying that they cannot get a deal because of the EU.

Eric Cartman

devnull wrote: »

Won't be a deal tonight as unable to reach agreement.

Makes you think that it could be about attributing blame by going right to the wire and saying that they cannot get a deal because of the EU.

wonder what the contentious issue is with the NI VAT rate, very possible the EU wants a guarantee that it wont drop below current rates which is the first thing Id imagine the UK government would want to do to drive exports up especially with christmas looming.

Capt'n Midnight

Infini wrote: »

Brown Envelope 2: Return of the backhander.

I mean seriously bribing the DUP worked so well the last time didn't it but wait a sec they didnt actually GET the money last time tho right? :P

Do you mean the Billion ? or the Metro Money* or Cash for Ash ? or the Community Halls Pilot Programme ? or Ian Paisley's Holidays ? or ...


*Anonymous donations are no longer allowed in NI , one of the few areas where NI has dropped an opt-out on UK wide laws.

New UK laws preventing employers keeping employees tips won't apply in NI

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If this deal goes through there would be a transition period during which nothing changes, with a swift election and after that who knows. It would be for whatever government is elected to decide if they want GB to leave the SM and CU.

If they do go for a hard Brexit for GB, then it will not be at NI's expence, or at least not as much of an expence as NI being included in that hard Brexit would have been.

Are you sure that's correct? My understanding is that the UK leaves the SMCU on Brexit Day and merely agrees to voluntarily follow EU rules during the transition period.

Joe_ Public

Labour mp confirms to Andrew Neil that they will be seeking to attach a public vote amendment to any deal being put forward.

Kermit.de.frog

Remainers trying to use a deal for NI to their own ends.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184530380004691969

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

threeball

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

KildareP

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

Nothing.
Their word is worth nothing.
Meaningless.

I expect ERG et al, should they choose to vote for any deal, will do so purely on the basis they can just unravel the bits they don't like after the fact.

Strazdas

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

They could definitely do that but there would be consequences for them (severe reputational damage and the EU hitting back in different ways).

Varta

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

davedanon

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

They would be breaking the terms of the GFA in full view of the international community. Not a good look for a constitutional democracy.

And the strongarming is currently going well, would you say?

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

They could definitely do that but there would be consequences for them (severe reputational damage and the EU hitting back in different ways).

If the UK goes down that road, the EU will tariff the crap out of them.

threeball

KildareP wrote: »

Nothing.
Their word is worth nothing.
Meaningless.

I expect ERG et al, should they choose to vote for any deal, will do so purely on the basis they can just unravel the bits they don't like after the fact.

That's what I thought. I expect doing this deal would actually benefit them in the long term as they are rarely adverse to using fragile agreements or people's lives as a hostage when they want something.

threeball

Varta wrote: »

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

Arent they doing the same with a no deal hard border brexit. They don't seem to give a toss about optics or the international community

joe_99

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the UK goes down that road, the EU will tariff the crap out of them.

US Congress won't pass trade either in that scenario

threeball

Varta wrote: »

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

All fine and well dealing with reasonable people but they have shown that they consider themselves immune to damage from the EU by the very fact they're happy to carry out a hard brexit.

Professor Moriarty

joe_99 wrote: »

US Congress won't pass trade either in that scenario

No. You watching Philip Hammond too?

A Dub in Glasgo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Remainers trying to use a deal for NI to their own ends.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184530380004691969

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

Isn't he just highlighting the legal situation

Kermit.de.frog

Interesting in the Guardian on comments by Steve Baker and the ERG

However, they cautioned that the DUP would probably need to be onboard for them to support any agreement and promised to examine every “tedious detail” of the legal texts to ensure the prime minister was keeping to his word on leaving the customs union.

Niche change of tone there.

"Probably"...ERG going cold on the DUP if they attempt to block a deal they say they can live with?