Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

I believe NI has the highest level of economic inactivity among the population of any region in Europe (people out of the workforce or who don't want to join the workforce). A pretty problem that needs to be addressed.

Capt'n Midnight

More Brexit SNAFU is there any good news or any prospect of a better deal with anyone than they already have ?
Are there any new jobs, are exports increasing ?

Flybmi airline blames ‘Brexit uncertainty’ as it cancels operations and files for administration

Justice secretary says leaving EU without deal would have ‘very adverse effect’

The justice secretary has said he has grave concerns about the prospect of leaving the European Union without a deal, saying it would have a “very adverse effect” on the UK’s economy, security and union with Northern Ireland.

No shít, Sherlock. Maybe someone should do something about it ?

Junkyard Tom

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Arlene is West of the Bann and knows what will happen to her support if it all goes titsup.

I don't think the DUP vote will suffer all that much because the DUP are essentially the anti-SF, anti-21st-Century, anti-Gael Party and all those those factors are increasing.

BobbyBobberson

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I believe NI has the highest level of economic inactivity among the population of any region in Europe (people out of the workforce or who don't want to join the workforce). A pretty problem that needs to be addressed.

Northern Ireland is in a poor place economically. The only people denying it are two people in here who are going on anecdotal evidence. One lad claims he took a “feel” for the place and felt it was the same as ROI.

woohoo!!!

listermint wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with downcow on much, yet I would place more faith with his thoughts on the prospects of a border poll than many folk who know very little about the north and would bang on about the 10 billion plus in subsidies to NI.

How Brexit turns out may sway the middle ground in the North or may not. A continuing no deal scenario likely would sway the matter but no one can say for certain that a deal won't be struck. I do think a UI is the correct option for the simple and pragmatic reason that, the North is more likely to prosper within Ireland, and the north will have far more sway in Dublin than London, just a numbers game.

Downcow swings his opinion depending on the day of the week.

He pretends to be one thing then does another.

He pretends to have one set of beliefs then trashes all over people that have similar ones and holds up ones that threaten his beliefs as righteous.

I don't hold that opinion in any regard. It's scatter gun

About the north, he/she knows far more than most. About the business at hand, Brexit, his/her assumptions are incorrect, but the same can be said for most in the UK for they have continually misjudged the EU and what it's actually about. I reserve my distain for the promoters of Brexit in England.

EdgeCase

Is there no way that a referendum could be held in Northern Ireland on a special status, other than reunification?

I mean something that would keep the status quo and allow a different regulatory regime, as was suggested in the first place.
It would remain in the UK, have the best of both worlds scenario and the EU was happy enough to go along with that due to the small scale and special status.

The DUP will never agree to it, but the public in NI might well go for it.

road_high

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I believe NI has the highest level of economic inactivity among the population of any region in Europe (people out of the workforce or who don't want to join the workforce). A pretty problem that needs to be addressed.

Also one of the lowest productivities per worker which I guess goes hand in hand with the above.
Only for NI is such a small, insignificant little place it gets away with it but if it was a real economy then it would have hit major difficulties years ago.

woohoo!!!

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Arlene is West of the Bann and knows what will happen to her support if it all goes titsup.

I don't think the DUP vote will suffer all that much because the DUP are essentially the anti-SF, anti-21st-Century, anti-Gael Party and all those those factors are increasing.

Correct, but in doing so may put off the middle ground who have no home or desire to be firmly on one side or the other.

FrancieBrady

EdgeCase wrote: »

Is there no way that a referendum could be held in Northern Ireland on a special status, other than reunification?

I mean something that would keep the status quo and allow a different regulatory regime, as was suggested in the first place.
It would remain in the UK, have the best of both worlds scenario and the EU was happy enough to go along with that due to the small scale and special status.

The DUP will never agree to it, but the public in NI might well go for it.

It was held. They wish to Remain and the spirit of the GFA says that wish should be accommodated. The EU and The UK agreed to do that but one small party stands in the way.

EdgeCase

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It was held. They wish to Remain and the spirit of the GFA says that wish should be accommodated. The EU and The UK agreed to do that but one small party stands in the way.

Well it wasn't held as there was no special status discussed in that referendum.

In my view there needs to be a special referendum for NI on granting itself special status. It's not like it never had a customs difference between GB and itself before.

The consequences of not doing something like that ASAP is going to lead to a risk of unravelling the GFA and that's ENTIRELY the Tories and DUP's fault.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

Getting back to where checks will be. Do you guys think in a no deal situation that your government will prioritise protection of the GFA of any annoyance a few checks at the southern ports would cause?
Again not my question but i think it is a really important one - and please lets not get back into whos fault Brexit is, i would just like to know which position you think your government will take

If having a border in your opinion between NI and Ireland will not have a significant impact on the GFA, why are you asking the question other than to get a reaction?

In reply to your question, we will prioritise the EU single market and the blame will be on the UK who embarked on Brexit without having even a simple plan regarding NI and the border. We will not cut ourselves off from our biggest market due to a decision made by the UK.

ZeroThreat

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not that you should, but in case you need another reason to detest everything the Tory Right stands for, here is a headline from their 'newspaper' The Telegraph. Naked malice at its finest:

"We're heading for the great Brexit trap - so why not stay in and wreck the EU instead"

lol that was written by Janet Daly, one of the most right wing reactionary columnists in that rag, and actually not even British (american citizen/national afaik)

FrancieBrady

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well it wasn't held as there was no special status discussed in that referendum.

In my view there needs to be a special referendum for NI on granting itself special status. It's not like it never had a customs difference between GB and itself before.

The consequences of not doing something like that ASAP is going to lead to a risk of unravelling the GFA and that's ENTIRELY the Tories and DUP's fault.

It can't 'grant itself special status' that has to be negotiated between the EU and the UK and on foot of this letter from Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness and the position taken by Dublin, it was negotiated and a solution agreed.
We all know what happened next, a party to the above decided to opt out and take a contradictory position.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

Well apologies. Maybe not unique. But living here 50 years I haven’t met her like yet.

Brexit is only a "thing" now though so your 50 years of experience are irrelevant.

Water John

Edgecase, correct ask the people of NI, do they want to remain in the EU CU and SM? If they say yes,let the UK get on with their Brexit.

ThePanjandrum

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It was held. They wish to Remain and the spirit of the GFA says that wish should be accommodated. The EU and The UK agreed to do that but one small party stands in the way.

"The spirit of the GFA."

Lordy, lordy, have we come to this? Something can't be proved from the text of the Belfast Agreement so the poster moves to the spirit which means essentially, "OK, it's not there but I think it should be."

That's not how legal documents are treated.

FrancieBrady

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

"The spirit of the GFA."

Lordy, lordy, have we come to this? Something can't be proved from the text of the Belfast Agreement so the poster moves to the spirit which means essentially, "OK, it's not there but I think it should be."

That's not how legal documents are treated.

There isn't provision in the GFA for a border poll? If there is 'provision' for one is it unreasonable to expect one in the 'spirit' of the agreement?

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

I have a very broad group of friends ie loyalist to republican, gay straight, black white.
So I won’t fit in the box you’d like to put me in

I'm not racist, I have lots of black friends?

As someone else from the North, I can assure you that the opinion of that young lady is not nearly as uncommon as you seem to wish it was. Ultimately, there are a significant number on the Republican side who will never change, and a significant number on the Loyalist side who will never change.....but you're discounting a HUGE number if little u unionists who will turn when the winds are blowing a certain way, much like a significant number of little n nationalists who haven't rocked the boat while the post GFA situation has been relatively stable.

Changing that stability may well open a can of worms you're just not capable of understanding, because no matter how much you claim to be moderate (and I dont doubt for a second that you genuinely believe you are, despite my initial comment being somewhat teasing), you're not anywhere near moderate.

While I may personally have Nationalist beliefs, as I come from half a Unionist background (as I've mentioned before, my very planter surname is on the Ulster covenant), I feel much more capable than most of genuinely understanding the middle ground I describe above than someone who had the odd conversation with one or two Republicans.

ThePanjandrum

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There isn't provision in the GFA for a border poll? If there is 'provision' for one is it unreasonable to expect one in the 'spirit' of the agreement?

You were answering the comment

Originally Posted by EdgeCase View Post
Is there no way that a referendum could be held in Northern Ireland on a special status, other than reunification?

I mean something that would keep the status quo and allow a different regulatory regime, as was suggested in the first place.
It would remain in the UK, have the best of both worlds scenario and the EU was happy enough to go along with that due to the small scale and special status.

The DUP will never agree to it, but the public in NI might well go for it.

That wasn't about a border poll. Either you've forgot what you wrote or want to deflect the comment.

RobMc59

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Northern Ireland is in a poor place economically. The only people denying it are two people in here who are going on anecdotal evidence. One lad claims he took a “feel” for the place and felt it was the same as ROI.

That's not true-I've been to NI on numerous occasions and was in Derry last week-great city and just as good as any in Ireland imo.In fact,they're both great places.

FrancieBrady

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You were answering the comment



That wasn't about a border poll. Either you've forgot what you wrote or want to deflect the comment.

It is within the spirit of the agreement that a border poll be held as it is also within the spirit of the agreement that special status be conferred to ensure the rights of all in northern ireland.
Why would May and her negotiators have agreed to special status otherwise? Why would Foster and McGuinness have asked for it?

Deal with the reality here, not pedantics.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

"The spirit of the GFA."

Lordy, lordy, have we come to this? Something can't be proved from the text of the Belfast Agreement so the poster moves to the spirit which means essentially, "OK, it's not there but I think it should be."

That's not how legal documents are treated.

The stated aim of the GFA is "to promote peace and reconciliation on the island of Ireland". That is not something tangible. The whole point of a peace agreement is to be somewhat vague and ambiguous in its interpretation.....you're talking about the GFA as if it is a trade deal or something.

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

I can assure you I can make a bigger list of disgraceful stuff that sf are up to than you can make for the dup. But that won’t get us anywhere. They are both fairly entrenched, sectarian parties with pretty shady stuff in their past. I am not sure the point you are trying to make.

It's like a Republican voting for the UUP or TUV

But like I said SF don't take their seats in Westminster. So they won't vote for Brexit.

Effects like this, Single seat FPTP and having mostly Safe Seats make a mockery of Democracy in Westminster.



The DUP supposedly got a billion for NI , how much has been delivered ? and how will that offset the ten billion subvention they are rising ?

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

That not true-I've been to NI on numerous occasions and was in Derry last week-great city and just as good as any in Ireland imo.In fact,they're both great places.

I was in Derry a few years ago and couldn’t get over how bad it was/is. The people in general looked did not very prosperous, every second shop was either a pawn shop or bookies. I thought it was very sad tbh.
Struggled to find anywhere half decent for lunch. It’s not a patch on say Kilkenny or Galway, both considerably smaller places. NI outside of Belfast is moribound, depressed and just about standing still. Without the enormous subsidies propping people up in pointless public jobs there’d be next to nothing going on.

BobbyBobberson

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's not true-I've been to NI on numerous occasions and was in Derry last week-great city and just as good as any in Ireland imo.In fact,they're both great places.

I literally live here, having lived in the republic previously and I can tell you there is a difference.

You are ignoring data and hard facts. Your “feels” for a place don’t count. When the OECD start compiling your gut feeling then we can take them as facts. Your way of thinking and ignorance of facts is Brexit in a bottle.

RobMc59

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I literally live here, having lived in the republic previously and I can tell you there is a difference.

You are ignoring data and hard facts. Your “feels” for a place don’t count. When the OECD start compiling your gut feeling then we can take them as facts. Your way of thinking and ignorance of facts is Brexit in a bottle.

Strange that you live there but seem to go out of your way to slag the place off-I've got no agenda-if I say I like it and think it comparable with Ireland obviously that's just my opinion.
I know salaries are higher in Ireland but the cost of living is also higher which evens things up-will you admit that the cost of living is higher in Ireland?

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Statistically backed arguments about the economy on different sides of the border meets the charter. People have said they have opinions about places and thats fine. But repeating those opinions without adding anything to back it up breaches the charter

Folkstonian

RobMc59 wrote: »

Strange that you live there but seem to go out of your way to slag the place off-I've got no agenda-if I say I like it and think it comparable with Ireland obviously that's just my opinion.
I know salaries are higher in Ireland but the cost of living is also higher which evens things up-will you admit that the cost of living is higher in Ireland?

Honestly I’ve no idea why you bother. It’s really commendable that you try and build bridges and acknowledge different perspectives in your posts time after time but people obviously take pleasure in tripping you up and rubbing your face in it.

You can’t, and won’t, please all the people all the time.

Folkstonian

Water John wrote: »

Edgecase, correct ask the people of NI, do they want to remain in the EU CU and SM? If they say yes,let the UK get on with their Brexit.

Is that not what the option of a unification referendum is all about?

Personally I don’t mind either way what people in Northern Ireland choose to do with regard to their future in or out of the U.K., but carving the state up down the middle with different tariffs, regulations and standards doesn’t sit particularly well with me.

A vast majority of businesses’ biggest market is the domestic market. Presumably putting up barriers between NI and GB, or Scotland and England, or simply any two given regions of the U.K. will impact small and medium size businesses very negatively.

There’s an escape route from ‘Brexit britain’ sat on the table for NI and Scotland in the form of referenda. Anything else makes an already complex issue even more confusing and creates too many frictions

EdgeCase

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

You were answering the comment



That wasn't about a border poll. Either you've forgot what you wrote or want to deflect the comment.

I didn't mention a border poll! To be quite honest I am not even going to demean myself by responding to that accusatory tone about deflection. I've no skin in the game in NI and I really think that being buried in dogmatic identity politics in 2019 is a recipe for disaster. It's long past time that NI politicians started to grow up and actually deal with reality. During the biggest crisis in NI economic history in decades they can't even put their differences aside and run an assembly in the interest of the greater good of the people. They're an utter disgrace.

I said that the EU had been open to a special arrangement for NI. The DUP ruled that out with "blood red lines" without any consultation with the NI people at all and the House or Commons legislated against it rather symbolically in a display of yet more lack of pragmatism.

If a solution were put together, creating a special status for NI that allowed them to remain in the customs union while retaining full ties to the UK, rather than a controversial border poll, it could be but to to the people in NI as a referendum.

At present, absolutely no movement is possible as the DUP have the Tories over a barrel and the NI Assembly is seemingly permanently mothballed

It's a perfect storm and I think it's far too late. Bringing NI politics into English nationalism was insane and everyone told May this at the time yet she carried on regardless!

This is her mess. Her Brexit and her border.

Two years have been wasted going around and around and around in circles negotiating with themselves and the tabloids. The reality is nobody outside the UK cares. They want a position and a solution to this not more spin coupled with more dogmatic inflexibility.

This is rapidly heading to a crash out and all I see if people in the UK coming up with 1001 reasons why they can't move their positions. It's like NI back in the 80s.

The incredible no men are back! No! No! Never!

Except this time, those statements will have real and lasting economic consequences. Arguably, they've already damaged the UK's reputation beyond repair. It's going to take years to rebuild a sense of trust in the fact that the UK is actually a stable political and regulatory environment. Business decisions are made and are irrevocable at this stage. Recession 2019 is probably due anytime over the next few weeks.

This isn't a game. There are real consequences.