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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

  • 01-02-2019 11:34pm
    #1
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,976 CMod ✭✭✭✭


    This thread is for the discussion of the United Kingdom's upcoming exit from the European Union, known more popularly as Brexit.

    Please bear the following in mind before posting:
    • Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
    • Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
    • Please do not be uncivil to other posters
    • Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,775 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Crock Rock wrote: »
    Any truth to this?

    Well it is a what-if, but IMO plausible scenario if UK exit in March without an agreement with the EU.

    There are various (interconnected) imponderables that affect how bad things would be for Ireland/whether it would be as much of a disaster as poster suggested like:
      How long the rest of the EU would tolerate us not enforcing the border
      How determined the UK would be in its course - a lot posting here seem to think UK would come back to the EU again later quite quickly and sign the current withdrawal agreement or something like it, maybe after change of govt.
      How far and fast the UK starts to diverge from the EU rules and regulations
      How committed FG are to keeping the border open vs. letting us drift into a "semi-detached" state for the sake of NI (transactions/goods trade involving Ireland start to not be trusted any longer by other EU states, we get taken to ECJ by the commission or another member state over not following EU rules properly).


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,446 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Imreoir2 wrote:
    The EU won't have to make any threats or turn against us, if the British fail to uphold the GFA then we will erect a hard border ourselves. The single market is our market, we have to protect it. The UK will also have to put up a hard border if they don't want to be flooded with cheep goods from all over.
    We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,249 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-byter-fot-vill-inte-langre-lamna-eu

    Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.

    What they want to do is take control of the European Parliament which is a thorn in the side of many of these right wing parties. The EP voted to censor both Hungary. It would suit all these countries if the control was kept within the Council of Minister where these authoritarian figures have a veto. The AfD in Germany have part of their policy the abolishment of the European Parliament.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,377 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-byter-fot-vill-inte-langre-lamna-eu

    Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.

    The so called Eurosceptics are total moderates by UK standards!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    eagle eye wrote: »
    We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.

    We will be left with no choice, a border with NI is bad, a border with the EU is a national disaster. The imposition of controls on the border is regretable, but unavoidable in a no-deal scenario. How they are implemented however is important. They should be implemented on an emergency temporary basis at makeshift checkpoints with no permenant phisical infastructure. While this is done, the government should also persue a unification policy and push for a referendum to end the need for checks on the border.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    A Unionist/Conservative expresses disillusionment with the Irish rugby team due to Brexit - there would surely have been worse occasions in the Seventies/Eighties, but is this common among Ulster Protestants?

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/owen-polley-i-always-supported-ireland-in-rugby-but-less-so-now-due-to-the-anti-british-mood-over-brexit-1-8793083


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,683 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    eagle eye wrote: »
    We have to protect people first. A border caused chaos, we cannot have a border.
    Do you read any of the replies to your posts? You have been told about what must happen along the border in order to protect Irish and EU trade which in turn protects livelihoods.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,625 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-byter-fot-vill-inte-langre-lamna-eu

    Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.
    Same in Italy , the populist Lega Nord per l'Indipendenza della Padania no longer want independence for Padania.

    Milan and Turin, where all the Fix It Again Tomorrow's and big kitchen appliances come from. Stuff that the UK used to make a lot of.

    Yes Italy isn't doing so well economically, but there's a huge black economy. Brexit just doesn't get a mention unless there is a significant event. Pretty much the same as UK news coverage of Italy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,479 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    The UK will also have to put up a hard border if they don't want to be flooded with cheep goods from all over.

    I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    briany wrote: »
    I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.

    It's easy to talk about the sunny uplands of unrestricted trade in the abstract, harder when the reality of it is driving UK manufacturing into the gutter. Not to mention that while the UK won't impose tarrifs on imports, that does not mean taffirs wont be placed on their exports, further crushing their manufacturers.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    briany wrote: »
    I thought one of the benefits cited by Brexiteers was that the UK could be opened up to other markets thanks to low tariffs, so an influx of cheap goods would be exactly what they are aiming for in that scenario.

    Yes but they still would need tariffs on some good to prevent their own companies from going under. Also they couldn't just completely open the markets if they hope to do free trade deals with other countries.
    It's more about having control over regulations and being able to lower the standard on what's acceptable. The UK will still need to have customs checks.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,976 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    tuxy wrote: »
    Yes but they still would need tariffs on some good to prevent their own companies from going under. Also they couldn't just completely open the markets if they hope to do free trade deals with other countries.
    It's more about having control over regulations and being able to lower the standard on what's acceptable. The UK will still need to have customs checks.

    The WTO's most favoured nation principle states that all countries must be treated as the nation which is "most favoured". Basically tariff increases and decreases must be applied equally to all nations.

    They can open the markets to imports from outside the EU at the risk of decimating their own industries. There is also the weakening of Britain's position in trade talks to consider as a result. If India can export to the UK tariff free and maintain its own protectionist tariffs, why would it opt for an inferior alternative?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,561 ✭✭✭Umaro


    Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-byter-fot-vill-inte-langre-lamna-eu

    Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.

    When Eurosceptic parties see the mess that's unfolding with Brexit its very hard to point to it and say "we should do that too".

    Whatever way Brexit ends up, it'll kill off Euroscepticism for a few decades.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    "The I" newspaper in the UK is apparently reporting that the Irish Government is being pressurised by the EU over the backstop.

    I wouldn't necessarily give it much credence, given the wishful thinking coming out of UK media and rumour reporting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Umaro wrote: »
    When Eurosceptic parties see the mess that's unfolding with Brexit its very hard to point to it and say "we should do that too".

    Whatever way Brexit ends up, it'll kill off Euroscepticism for a few decades.

    Most Eurosceptic parties only ever wanted reform of the EU from within (which is a perfectly fine strategy or aim to have).

    UKIP under Farage and the British right wing press were very much at the extreme end of Euroscepticism, more like Europhobes who want the destruction of the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,468 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Interestingly, the Swedish Democrats have dropped demands for an in-out referendum from their political platform, and now want to reform EU institutions from within:

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/sd-byter-fot-vill-inte-langre-lamna-eu

    Ironically, many Eurosceptic parties are moving closer to the centre, and joining the ECR, so if Cameron had held his nerve, the UK would have been in a rather more powerful position after May's elections.

    Given that European borders are often accidents of history with various ethnic minorities left on the wrong side, there is no replacement for a European Union of some description. There are dozens of 'Northern Ireland' scenarios between multiple European countries, where wars moved borders but people remained. The EU is a necessary solution to the incompatibility of narrow-minded nationalism with the historical reality across Europe, not just in Ireland. Ending a wrong-headed opposition to the EU will likely only boost the popularity of groups likes the SD.

    The main ire of the nationalist/populist (and socialist) groups has been that the EU is captured by neoliberal interests. But ironically, European elections are more open to fringe interests due to a lack of voter engagement. UKIP were able to get representation in the EU elections that was simply impossible in UK domestic elections. Should the nationalist/populist parties secure significant victories in EU elections this year you can expect their view of the EU to change. You can also expect the views of their opponents to change regarding the EU interfering in domestic politics of member states to enforce vague 'European values'.Whereas they generally support the EU repressing the governments of Poland, Hungary and Italy they will not support the EU repressing the neo liberal governments of France and Germany.

    At the end of the day, the EU is a vehicle, not a destination. But Cameron and the Tories would never have common cause with parties like the SD.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,446 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Do you read any of the replies to your posts? You have been told about what must happen along the border in order to protect Irish and EU trade which in turn protects livelihoods.
    You are talking about money, I'm talking about people's lives. Which is important?


  • Registered Users Posts: 51 ✭✭nemefuria


    eagle eye wrote: »
    You are talking about money, I'm talking about people's lives. Which is important?

    But isn't that like saying let's set all speed limits to 20km/h so you'd have zero fatalities on the roads...we're talking people's lives here! By your rationale that would be the right thing to do?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,253 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    eagle eye wrote: »
    You are talking about money, I'm talking about people's lives. Which is important?
    Then you fully support Ireland to become a vassal of UK then to avoid a hard border at any cost. At the same time there should be an outright ban on all alcohol and tobacco sales as well know sources for premature death. All fast food, chippers etc. will need to change over to healthy food only, mandatory exercises for the whole population weekly to maintain fitness obviously. Because we are talking about people's life here which according to you trump's everything.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 390 ✭✭jochenstacker


    eagle eye wrote: »
    You are talking about money, I'm talking about people's lives. Which is important?

    Your posting style is confusing, since you seem argue on various sides of the argument and your aims of what you want to argue seem vague and muddled.
    Either you are confused about what you want to argue, or you are deliberately arguing merely for the purpose of riling people up.
    I don't buy your fake concern for one second.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 803 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    It is brinkmanship. The EU will blink, solve the issues at the 11th hour. This is the thinking from folk like Boris. May knows full well that this is rubbish but she'll pretend and go along with it. Her whole strategy is run the clock down until a woefully unprepared HoC finally realised that negotiations are done. The only reason for ditching the backstop is to stay in the CU. So choose.

    After Brexit day and should they crash out, then there will be no transition period, they're out. The trade talks will take years, and won't start at all until 39 billion and backstop are ratified. Elections, border poll, reversal of red lines, revolution, anything is possible should they crash out. I do think it's going to take 2 election cycles minimum, before politics begins to normalise there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    "The I" newspaper in the UK is apparently reporting that the Irish Government is being pressurised by the EU over the backstop.

    I wouldn't necessarily give it much credence, given the wishful thinking coming out of UK media and rumour reporting.

    Not much different from the Irish Times a few days ago - there "may" be pressure put on Ireland, "if" May can put a convincing case to Brussels:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/dublin-faces-pressure-from-eu-to-help-find-compromise-on-backstop-to-save-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,532 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    https://youtu.be/zPXm5VtxEOg



    Brexiteer humiliated here.How anyone could think Brexit is a good idea after watching this is beyond the beyond.

    Just highlights how good the likes of Jacob Rees mogg and Nigel farage etc are at obfuscation and how they have carried the ridiculous brexit argument by the force of their will and charisma over the last 2 years.
    When an ordinary brrxiteer argues brexit he gets destroyed.
    In fairness the presenter and other guests seems well informed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,446 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    nemefuria wrote:
    But isn't that like saying let's set all speed limits to 20km/h so you'd have zero fatalities on the roads...we're talking people's lives here! By your rationale that would be the right thing to do?
    No, it's not the same thing. We know that a border will start the troubles again. There has already been a shot fired across the bow with the bomb in Derry. This isn't just about NI, these troubles will spread across the border. Once they start they might never stop again.
    Maybe I'm just more into saving the lives of innocent people than most because I'm also in favour of very low speed limits in school and shopping districts.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,976 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    eagle eye wrote: »
    No, it's not the same thing. We know that a border will start the troubles again. There has already been a shot fired across the bow with the bomb in Derry. This isn't just about NI, these troubles will spread across the border. Once they start they might never stop again.
    Maybe I'm just more into saving the lives of innocent people than most because I'm also in favour of very low speed limits in school and shopping districts.

    I think if you're truly "into saving the lives of innocent people" then you should be calling for the cancellation of Brexit.

    The UK voted for this. It's that simple. It's their mess to resolve. All the Irish government can do is prepare for the worst outcome.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    eagle eye wrote:
    No, it's not the same thing. We know that a border will start the troubles again. There has already been a shot fired across the bow with the bomb in Derry. This isn't just about NI, these troubles will spread across the border. Once they start they might never stop again. Maybe I'm just more into saving the lives of innocent people than most because I'm also in favour of very low speed limits in school and shopping districts.

    If you think cutting Ireland out of the Single Market is going to save innocent lives, you are looking at the wrong problem.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,909 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    eagle eye wrote: »
    No, it's not the same thing. We know that a border will start the troubles again. There has already been a shot fired across the bow with the bomb in Derry. This isn't just about NI, these troubles will spread across the border. Once they start they might never stop again.
    Maybe I'm just more into saving the lives of innocent people than most because I'm also in favour of very low speed limits in school and shopping districts.
    Maybe you'd want to think of the ramifications of having a wide open border between two different customs jurisdictions. Because what happens then is rampant smuggling and a massive financial boost to those who don't care what sort of border is in existence and just want 'brits out'. And there will still be financial implications for law abiding businesses who will be faced with massive tariffs on agri-food. So you're creating the conditions for inequality on either side of the border and handing a financial incentive to those who want to exploit it.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,891 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    Picked up thread on the main page.Strip away all the crap and the absolute most straightforward solution to all of this is for NI to become part of the Republic.

    Likelihood of it happening in my lifetime....slim to non-existent.Mind you, the more the UK slip into the abyss, the more attractive a solution it might become.Assuming it will not happen though, a previous poster is correct-all we can do is prepare on our side of the border.We just don't have jurisdiction to do anything else.Erecting a hard border would be a total disaster, but the fact that it (apparently) never even occurred to the UK that the only hard border they have with the EU is here, shows exactly how little we or NI matter to them.

    I would like to think that it will end up at another referendum, although a bit of me thinks they have gone too far now for that. Either way, I wouldn't want Theresa May's job for all the money out there.If they crash out I think we will feel the effect of it in many ways.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,101 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    My sympathy for Teresa May is gone a long time ago.
    She now is in the worst possible position as a negotiator. The other side don't trust her to deliver. She has welched on her own deal.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 37,446 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I think if you're truly "into saving the lives of innocent people" then you should be calling for the cancellation of Brexit.
    The British people voted on it and decided to leave. I don't think they've changes their minds either despite what some quarters would try and make you believe.
    I'd be happy if they never made that decision but we are long past that now.
    First Up wrote:
    If you think cutting Ireland out of the Single Market is going to save innocent lives, you are looking at the wrong problem.
    I don't want us out of the single market.
    The difference between me and you and many others is that I'm willing to give the UK a deal where they have control over who is allowed come and live in their country. We can still have no border but they control immigration to the UK.

    prawnsambo wrote:
    Maybe you'd want to think of the ramifications of having a wide open border between two different customs jurisdictions. Because what happens then is rampant smuggling and a massive financial boost to those who don't care what sort of border is in existence and just want 'brits out'. And there will still be financial implications for law abiding businesses who will be faced with massive tariffs on agri-food. So you're creating the conditions for inequality on either side of the border and handing a financial incentive to those who want to exploit it.
    I'm talking lives and you are talking money.
    I've been poor before, as a child in the 70's and early 80's and I went through the hard times up to recently because we saved the banks. I'd much rather live in tough financial times than to see innocent lives lost.


This discussion has been closed.
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