Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Pa8301

downcow wrote: »

I am still very confident the wa will be tweaked to allow a deal. That’s my preference.
It’s the way negotiations work.

Negotiations are finished though according to the EU.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

Well apologies. Maybe not unique. But living here 50 years I haven’t met her like yet.

You've never met someone from a unionists background that doesn't share your view of the country ?

Really


I find that oddly suspicious

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I am still very confident the wa will be tweaked to allow a deal. That’s my preference.
It’s the way negotiations work.

Answered like a true Brexiteer: picking an option that's not on offer ... :rolleyes:

Ah well, at least it's a response of a sort. I won't push my luck by asking you what kind of tweak you think would be offered/agreed (excluding a time-limited backstop and checks on Irish exports to the rest of the EU)

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's the bottomline in what's on offer here. They can go on about borders in France and other unicorny ideas but the above is the choice facing the UK ultimately.
And each one will lead to further division/spliting of the union, such is the disaster they have negotiated their way into.

All due respect francie but imo thats all in your head-no one can predict the future but NI is doing just fine and is a decent place to be i reckon-certainly not inferior to Ireland and not about to split away neither is Wales;I couldn't say what's going to happen with Scotland and neither can anyone else.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

All due respect francie but imo thats all in your head-no one can predict the future but NI is doing just fine and is a decent place to be i reckon-certainly not inferior to Ireland and not about to split away neither is Wales;I couldn't say what's going to happen with Scotland and neither can anyone else.

The future can be fairly accurately predicted that a UK in recession will not be funding a NI that can't fund itself. The NHS is already suffering greatly so the oul chalice of the NHS holding back votes for UI no longer stands through.

You would have vast amount of people coming down south for work. More than you do now. And there's a huge amount now mainly in the facilities and construction areas. This will grow.

All this facilitates the discussion and will ramp up the calls for a UI.

Finally the UK will be glad to off load it. I suspect most unionists actually know his in their heart. But they are hopeful of a few Tories still holding out hope of keeping them around.

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

I am still very confident the wa will be tweaked to allow a deal. That’s my preference.
It’s the way negotiations work.

What is your confidence based on? The EU has said a great many times that the text of the WA will not be reopened, what makes you think it will be?

Well apologies. Maybe not unique. But living here 50 years I haven’t met her like yet.

Supporting a UI is presumably not a popular opinion amongst unionists, I can only guess that people from that background who have been convinced that a UI might be a better option than remaining in the UK are not too inclined to broadcast that opinion in front of you.

I would also suggest that it is an opinion that is more likely to be found amongst a younger age group than your own.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

I am still very confident the wa will be tweaked to allow a deal. That’s my preference.
It’s the way negotiations work.

You really don't seem to get it. The negotiations have closed. There is nothing left to discuss.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

So I can’t find the post that encouraged me to watch that video. But it was abosolute tosh. My goodness. The young woman who said she was unionist but her friends were nationalist and she wanted a UI LOL A unionist that wants a UI. that’s like a vegetarian who wants to eat meat. Although in fairness to her she said she was pretty much unique.
And the lady on Arlenes office. Well lol just sums it up.
What a load onf nonsense contained in that video.
I am curious what the original poster of it thought it was informing us of ???? Help me. Let me know.

You didn't watch very closely obviously and saw and heard what you wanted to hear.

It is impossible to say now if there is still a 'unionist' majority in northern Ireland any longer.

If unionists are convinced of that, why are they scared of a border poll?

BobbyBobberson

Couple of interesting tweets here

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1096844747212316672

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1096847287391789056

listermint

Yep katya addler the bastion of BBC truth. Quoting a sham paper like the Irish indo....

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

All due respect francie but imo thats all in your head-no one can predict the future but NI is doing just fine and is a decent place to be i reckon-certainly not inferior to Ireland and not about to split away neither is Wales;I couldn't say what's going to happen with Scotland and neither can anyone else.

There is your opinion and there is objective fact. Your opinion that NI is doing just fine, objective fact is that it is significantly poorer than the rest of Ireland.

Midlife

downcow wrote: »

I am still very confident the wa will be tweaked to allow a deal. That’s my preference.
It’s the way negotiations work.

You're putting your faith in May and her negotiating team?

It weas interesting the statements from EU the other day saying they're not even trying to negotiate any more.

As said before, it's a circle you can't square.

May is at this point either

a: pretending to be trying to find a solution knowing she's going to force the UK into extending article 50 or pulling the plug onbrexit alltogether as with day's to go, their resolve will wane

b: pretending to be trrying to find a solution knowing full well that it will be a no deal brexit

That's it. She will come away with nothing, she's known it for a while.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

All due respect francie but imo thats all in your head-no one can predict the future but NI is doing just fine and is a decent place to be i reckon-certainly not inferior to Ireland and not about to split away neither is Wales;I couldn't say what's going to happen with Scotland and neither can anyone else.

The very visible divisions in the union of GB is not in 'my head'. They are clear for all to see. We are just after a Scottish ref on independence and already they are looking for another. And the pressure is beginning to mount for a Border poll on the future of northern Ireland.
These things are happening for a reason - the centre can no longer hold.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

no one can predict the future but NI is doing just fine and is a decent place to be

Hmmm. I don't think a country/province that needs an annual bailout equivalent to more than the UK's entire contribution to the EU can be described as "doing fine".

And while no-one can predict the future, it's not just in Francie's head that there's both surprise and anticipation (enthusiastic or desperate, depending on one's other beliefs) that a United Ireland is closer now than it has been since 1922. The young moderate unionist in that Guardian video is not as atypical as downcow says.

I studied with a bunch of them 25 years ago. Two girls came to Dublin as hard-core, pure-blood Orange sash wearers (one literally didn't even know where Dublin was on the map before she got her place in UCD, as her whole life had been built around the BBC and loyalty to London); five years later they were practically "mixed race".

Amongst other things, the GFA opened up the Republic to a cohort of NI who simply wouldn't have engaged with our geography, events, currency and society beforehand. They do now, and the polls show that attitudes amongst this group are definitely changing. A hard Brexit, especially accompanied by a recession in GB, will definitely push NI towards reunification far sooner than any of us expected prior to the referendum.

BobbyBobberson

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is your opinion and there is objective fact. Your opinion that NI is doing just fine, objective fact is that it is significantly poorer than the rest of Ireland.

Thank you.

Nate--IRL--

Airline FlyBMI collapses citing Brexit. It is interesting that the usual coyness about blaming Brexit is not present in their statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/16/flybmi-collapses-blaming-brexit-uncertainty

It is with a heavy heart that we have made this unavoidable announcement today. The airline has faced several difficulties, including recent spikes in fuel and carbon costs, the latter arising from the EU’s recent decision to exclude UK airlines from full participation in the Emissions Trading Scheme. These issues have undermined efforts to move the airline into profit.

“Current trading and future prospects have also been seriously affected by the uncertainty created by the Brexit process, which has led to our inability to secure valuable flying contracts in Europe and lack of confidence around BMI’s ability to continue flying between destinations in Europe.

Nate

downcow

listermint wrote: »

The future can be fairly accurately predicted that a UK in recession will not be funding a NI that can't fund itself. The NHS is already suffering greatly so the oul chalice of the NHS holding back votes for UI no longer stands through.

You would have vast amount of people coming down south for work. More than you do now. And there's a huge amount now mainly in the facilities and construction areas. This will grow.

All this facilitates the discussion and will ramp up the calls for a UI.

Finally the UK will be glad to off load it. I suspect most unionists actually know his in their heart. But they are hopeful of a few Tories still holding out hope of keeping them around.

It’s reassuring to know that people like you francie will be ensuring roi is standing ready to look after us if the UK ever kick us out. We can’t lose.

downcow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What is your confidence based on? The EU has said a great many times that the text of the WA will not be reopened, what makes you think it will be?



Supporting a UI is presumably not a popular opinion amongst unionists, I can only guess that people from that background who have been convinced that a UI might be a better option than remaining in the UK are not too inclined to broadcast that opinion in front of you.

I would also suggest that it is an opinion that is more likely to be found amongst a younger age group than your own.

My confidence is based on - that’s the way negotiations work. I’d be very surprised if Eu said they were prepared to reopen the wa, but they will

Pa8301

downcow wrote: »

My confidence is based on - that’s the way negotiations work. I’d be very surprised if Eu said they were prepared to reopen the wa, but they will

What negotiations?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

It’s reassuring to know that people like you francie will be ensuring roi is standing ready to look after us if the UK ever kick us out. We can’t lose.

The UK has already agreed to offload northern Ireland in the GFA. They will not stand in the way of a UI as they no longer have a strategic interest here and have stated that it is for the people of the island to decide.
It isn't hard to see why the DUP want the GFA gone. It would mean that they would not be compelled to accept a democratic decision.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You didn't watch very closely obviously and saw and heard what you wanted to hear.

It is impossible to say now if there is still a 'unionist' majority in northern Ireland any longer.

If unionists are convinced of that, why are they scared of a border poll?

I think the only concern for a border poll is that it seems once the first one is called then there will be one automatically every 7 years. This would just be very destabilising and keep us in orange and green politics indefinitely.
I don’t believe there is anyone nationalists or unionist who thinks a border poll has a snowball in hells chance of a UI

listermint

downcow wrote: »

It’s reassuring to know that people like you francie will be ensuring roi is standing ready to look after us if the UK ever kick us out. We can’t lose.

Wow wow there now.

I've said it's happening I never said I wanted it.

Be more accurate

downcow

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is your opinion and there is objective fact. Your opinion that NI is doing just fine, objective fact is that it is significantly poorer than the rest of Ireland.

Wishful thinking.
If you are sick tomorrow what does it cost you to se doc. What does it cost to get your pills. How much tax are you paying. Etc etc. I wouldn’t dare suggest you are struggling but NI is generally doing ok.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

I think the only concern for a border poll is that it seems once the first one is called then there will be one automatically every 7 years. This would just be very destabilising and keep us in orange and green politics indefinitely.
I don’t believe there is anyone nationalists or unionist who thinks a border poll has a snowball in hells chance of a UI

Earlier on you said you never met someone from a unionists background that holds similar views to the young girl in the video.

Now I don't want to call that a fib. But ... Be a bit more honest now.

So I find it hard to take your opinion on a border polls with any realism

listermint

downcow wrote: »

Wishful thinking.
If you are sick tomorrow what does it cost you to se doc. What does it cost to get your pills. How much tax are you paying. Etc etc. I wouldn’t dare suggest you are struggling but NI is generally doing ok.

If your sick tomorrow good luck getting a gp appointment tomorrow.

Gas man. Sure it's all roses in your eyes the reality is far from it

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmmm. I don't think a country/province that needs an annual bailout equivalent to more than the UK's entire contribution to the EU can be described as "doing fine".

And while no-one can predict the future, it's not just in Francie's head that there's both surprise and anticipation (enthusiastic or desperate, depending on one's other beliefs) that a United Ireland is closer now than it has been since 1922. The young moderate unionist in that Guardian video is not as atypical as downcow says.

I studied with a bunch of them 25 years ago. Two girls came to Dublin as hard-core, pure-blood Orange sash wearers (one literally didn't even know where Dublin was on the map before she got her place in UCD, as her whole life had been built around the BBC and loyalty to London); five years later they were practically "mixed race".

Amongst other things, the GFA opened up the Republic to a cohort of NI who simply wouldn't have engaged with our geography, events, currency and society beforehand. They do now, and the polls show that attitudes amongst this group are definitely changing. A hard Brexit, especially accompanied by a recession in GB, will definitely push NI towards reunification far sooner than any of us expected prior to the referendum.

I hate to burst your bubble but the youth of NI are not about to rush to a united Ireland. And I can assure you both women on the video were not very typical.

BobbyBobberson

downcow wrote: »

Wishful thinking.
If you are sick tomorrow what does it cost you to se doc. What does it cost to get your pills. How much tax are you paying. Etc etc. I wouldn’t dare suggest you are struggling but NI is generally doing ok.

What’s the etc etc? Keep going please. So free healthcare at point of access, a lower tax rate according to you. What else?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I think the only concern for a border poll is that it seems once the first one is called then there will be one automatically every 7 years. This would just be very destabilising and keep us in orange and green politics indefinitely.
I don’t believe there is anyone nationalists or unionist who thinks a border poll has a snowball in hells chance of a UI

Wrong again on a core fact. There is no stipulation that one must be held every 7 years.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The UK has already agreed to offload northern Ireland in the GFA. They will not stand in the way of a UI as they no longer have a strategic interest here and have stated that it is for the people of the island to decide.
It isn't hard to see why the DUP want the GFA gone. It would mean that they would not be compelled to accept a democratic decision.

Francie. You have a long wait if you are waiting until a majority in NI want to jettison the Heath service - just to mention one benifit.

sKeith

murphaph wrote: »

Be honest. You'd probably welcome a border like an awful lot of DUP types. Yeah yeah, you're just a neutral observer or whatever. Anything that says "look we really are British" is to be welcomed from that section of society.

If it's no deal you'll get your border. You can wryly smile at us down in Mexico, as viable NI private enterprise moves south to regain access to a market that can afford its goods and services. GB will become significantly poorer. That market will shrink.

It'll last 20 years max before the scorched earth policy that is Brexit results in a united Ireland. It's a ready-made emergency exit from the madness. Scotland will go its own way too of course, but has a less obvious escape route. There will be no United Kingdom. Just the Kingdom of England.

Brexit was a terrible mistake and NI unionists voted for it in large numbers. Their votes were important given the tight outcome. Congratulations.

England scotland & wales leave. 15,188,406 + 1,018,322 + 854,572
England scotland & wales remain. 13,266,996 + 1,661,191 + 772,347


ESW Leave = 17,061,300
ESW Remain = 15,700,534
Difference = 1,360,766


If the 349,442 NI leave voters joined the 440,707 that voted remain (790,149) it would not have changed the outcome of the vote.



The N.I. unionists votes were not as important as your post seems to suggest.