Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

briany

jon1981 wrote: »

My thoughts exactly, this comes down to the question of will the EU f**k over a member state to make this Brexit deal happen?

Doubtful. It would be an epic climb down for the EU to go back on their backstop clause after repeated statements on their commitment to it.

There's no point on signing off on a deal that F's Ireland over permanently when it's better (though not exactly ideal) to go no-deal and then repeat the question of the backstop if and when the UK come back to the table.

Duane Dibbley

briany wrote: »

Well, it's no real skin off the nose of France to vote to extend A50, even if it's only by a few months. Since Ireland is by far the most affected by Brexit, it would be an interesting test of EU solidarity to see what the rest of the EU 27 say.

What has would an extension of A50 got to do with solidarity.

Ireland got what it needed from the EU with the deal that was agreed.

If the UK don’t come up with that deal agreed or a better one then any of the EU countries can push the UK off the edge and rightly so.

This needs to end now so Ireland and the rest of the EU can adapt to being 27.

tuxy

Flying Fox wrote: »

The DUP is mainly concerned with being treated the same as the mainland. I think they'd go for a soft Brexit or even potentially remain, if the only other option is the WA including the backstop.

Is that what they really want? I don't believe so. They have not spoken out against the different tariffs on the Ireland/NI border proposed this morning.
Also gay marriage, abortion.
My guess is that they actually want a hard border but they can't come out and say it as it would anger too many people in NI.

CelticRambler

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Bercow is to make a judgement on if it can be voted on again. Any whispers of when that will be made?

Based on his recent rulings (and only that - I'm no expert on HoC procedures), this is my slightly revised prediction of what'll happen next:
- Bercow says no 3rd vote unless the motion is signficantly amended
- Kyle-Wilson amendment is tabled as just such an significant change (fits with Kyle saying he'd wait till the time was right)
but amended itself to specify that
-- the subsequent people's vote should be "this deal or no Brexit" on the grounds that parliament has voted no-deal off the table; and
-- if the EU will not grant an extension to allow such a vote, that Article 50 be revoked (calls the bluff of the ERG's friends in Europe)
- WA passes with a reasonable majority (ERG and DUP voting against)
- EU grants only a long extension on the grounds that the UK won't have enough time to organise EP elections if people vote for no Brexit.

joe40

So Teresa May has lost her voice. Is that not very apt for the night that is in it...

PropJoe10

So, yet another shambolic day in the House of Commons comes to an end. Roll on tomorrow and more shenanigans!

dresden8

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Germany and France hold the power. God help any of the poor eastern members that act up

That was also the point I was making.

briany

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What has would an extension of A50 got to do with solidarity.

Ireland got what it needed from the EU with the deal that was agreed.

If the UK don’t come up with that deal agreed or a better one then any of the EU countries can push the UK off the edge and rightly so.

This needs to end now so Ireland and the rest of the EU can adapt to being 27.

The more time Ireland has to prepare for Brexit, the better, so it's EU solidarity in terms of looking at Ireland's interest. If another EU country is willing to push the UK off the cliff, it is demonstrating that Brexit doesn't affect them so much. Such countries would do well to remember how badly Ireland is affected, and adjust their vote accordingly. This would be tangible EU solidarity, in contrast to the deal which is a bilateral thing with the UK, and cannot be guaranteed to be delivered.

The more time we can give the UK to dangle and perhaps lose their nerve altogether, the better. This is in the entire EU's interest, especially a 2 year extension, say. The UK might be an irritating voice in the EU to some, but the also contribute a lot to the budget and add balance to the political landscape of the bloc, being more Euro-sceptic.

j8wk2feszrnpao

PropJoe10 wrote: »

So, yet another shambolic day in the House of Commons comes to an end. Roll on tomorrow and more shenanigans!

It's like Spitting Image, but with the actual people playing themselves rather than having puppets. It'd be hilarious if the situation wasn't so serious.

PropJoe10

munstermagic11 wrote: »

It's like Spitting Image, but with the actual people playing themselves rather than having puppets. It'd be hilarious if the situation wasn't so serious.

100%.

dresden8

Sky going on as if extension is in the gift of parliament.

Mixed messages at best.

milhous

CelticRambler wrote: »

Based on his recent rulings (and only that - I'm no expert on HoC procedures), this is my slightly revised prediction of what'll happen next:
- Bercow says no 3rd vote unless the motion is signficantly amended
- Kyle-Wilson amendment is tabled as just such an significant change (fits with Kyle saying he'd wait till the time was right)
but amended itself to specify that
-- the subsequent people's vote should be "this deal or no Brexit" on the grounds that parliament has voted no-deal off the table; and
-- if the EU will not grant an extension to allow such a vote, that Article 50 be revoked (calls the bluff of the ERG's friends in Europe)
- WA passes with a reasonable majority (ERG and DUP voting against)
- EU grants only a long extension on the grounds that the UK won't have enough time to organise EP elections if people vote for no Brexit.

I was listening to a few of the Q&As after it all calmed down with the leader of the house. A few questioned the ifs and buts of the next few days... When someone questioned that as the deal has been rejected, a no deal is off the table (as voted tonight) therefore the options are either an extension or revoking article 50. The leader of the house said that article 50 wil not be revoked as it would go against the will of the people, that the default legal option is still a no deal as tonight's vote was not legally binding.. Therefore we're pretty much looking at an extension with Europe's t&cs (possibly 2nd referendum etc) or Mays meaningless vote 3.0

So to sum it up, she was saying that revoking article 50 is not something the government will do this side of the 29th...
Of course if they get their extension and have a 2nd referendum it may be likely

Flying Fox

Flying Fox wrote: »

DUP is mainly concerned with being treated the same as the mainland. I think they'd go for a soft Brexit or even potentially remain, if the only other option is the WA including the backstop.

If this is the DUPs absolute red line, surely the ERG & the DUP have come to the parting of the ways if the WA in its current form is reluctantly accepted by the ERG? MV3 cant be voted through though by all the Tories coming together if the DUP votes against. Would Labour MPs in Leave constituencies break ranks to back the deal in this scenario I wonder?

Water John

Have been following Sky News for the last few hours, no pint in watching BBC. Sky and panellists have made it clear that the 27 would have to agree and say it won't be got without a plan.

jochenstacker

gooch2k9 wrote: »

No deal is better than May's deal. Financially so for some I'd imagine.

That's starting to look off the table.

Saying that I wouldn't be surprised if they said this and reneged. Time would be up at that point.

You'd imagine? Can you maybe underpin your imagination with some facts and figures?
Because that is a clapped out old chestnut along the lines of "leave means leave".

dresden8

Another question.

If the UK refuses to pay the 39 billion does responsibility for paying Farage's EU pension fall to the UK?

Duane Dibbley

briany wrote: »

The more time Ireland has to prepare for Brexit, the better, so it's EU solidarity in terms of looking at Ireland's interest. If another EU country is willing to push the UK off the cliff, it is demonstrating that Brexit doesn't affect them so much. Such countries would do well to remember how badly Ireland is affected, and adjust their vote accordingly. This would be tangible EU solidarity, in contrast to the deal which is a bilateral thing with the UK, and cannot be guaranteed to be delivered.

The more time we can give the UK to dangle and perhaps lose their nerve altogether, the better. This is in the entire EU's interest, especially a 2 year extension, say. The UK might be an irritating voice in the EU to some, but the also contribute a lot to the budget and add balance to the political landscape of the bloc, being more Euro-sceptic.

The EU has been looking after Ireland’s interests. We had along with 26 other EU states , nearly 3 years to prepare for Brexit. What makes you think Ireland will prepare during the extension I’d we were incompetent not to start preparing before.

Kicking the can down the road is not a solution.

If the UK don’t have a sound plan by the 29th then move on as an EU27.

Sardonicat

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

briany wrote: »

The more time Ireland has to prepare for Brexit, the better, so it's EU solidarity in terms of looking at Ireland's interest. If another EU country is willing to push the UK off the cliff, it is demonstrating that Brexit doesn't affect them so much. Such countries would do well to remember how badly Ireland is affected, and adjust their vote accordingly. This would be tangible EU solidarity, in contrast to the deal which is a bilateral thing with the UK, and cannot be guaranteed to be delivered.

The more time we can give the UK to dangle and perhaps lose their nerve altogether, the better. This is in the entire EU's interest, especially a 2 year extension, say. The UK might be an irritating voice in the EU to some, but the also contribute a lot to the budget and add balance to the political landscape of the bloc, being more Euro-sceptic.

The EU has been looking after Ireland’s interests. We had along with 26 other EU states , nearly 3 years to prepare for Brexit. What makes you think Ireland will prepare during the extension I’d we were incompetent not to start preparing before.

Kicking the can down the road is not a solution.

If the UK don’t have a sound plan by the 29th then move on as an EU27.

With a hard border?

gooch2k9

jochenstacker wrote: »

You'd imagine? Can you maybe underpin your imagination with some facts and figures?
Because that is a clapped out old chestnut along the lines of "leave means leave".

Read the context. I thought it was fairly clear I was referring to their opinion on the deal. If not, consider that clarified. I'm a remainer. Voted so.

If you're referring to the financial incentive of no deal for some, it would be naive in the extreme to think no one is benefiting from GBP moving around so much.

ancapailldorcha

Ok, I think that this is as good a point as any to bring Brexit thread VII to a close.

Brexit thread VIII here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057964116#