Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

CelticRambler

blanch152 wrote: »

"By the 12th century, Ireland was divided politically into a shifting hierarchy of petty kingdoms and over-kingdoms. Power was exercised by the heads of a few regional dynasties vying against each other for supremacy over the whole island."

That describes Anglo-Norman England perfectly. Those lads were stomping around my neck of the woods here in France at the same time, too, vying against each other (and the French and the Spanish) for supremacy over various bits of western Europe.

The Romans, though, knew of Ireland as a discrete entity; and the monastic missions - most notably those coming out of the Columbanus stable - were very active in setting up Irish colonies across west-central Europe in the 5-600s

Strazdas

flatty wrote: »

Fcuking Welsh. Voting with their wallets as usual. Where were they when this was a vote of principle? Parading behind the brexit bus.

It suggests though that Wales was never on board the Brexit / UKIP bandwagon in the way the English nationalists are.

They probably genuinely thought in 2016 it would leave them better off but have quickly realised the error of their ways. With many of the English Brexiteers on the other hand, there's a lot of ideology involved and strong dislike of the EU and foreigners.

Spanish Eyes

If and just saying IF there is another referendum, what do you think the choices should be?

1. WA
2. Stay in EU

Or what?

I think it is just too problematic. If leaving without an agreement is an option, that could win. Hard Brexit.

Such a fkn mess. But the only ones to blame are the British (well Brexiteers) themselves with their oversized sense of entitlement, their arrogance, their lack of planning, their FPTP system that means little engagement in politics, and last but not least, their post colonial hubris.

Woops.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't post links without some sort of description of the contents.

An Ciarraioch

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If and just saying IF there is another referendum, what do you think the choices should be?

1. WA
2. Stay in EU

Or what?

I think it is just too problematic. If leaving without an agreement is an option, that could win. Hard Brexit.

Such a fkn mess. But the only ones to blame are the British (well Brexiteers) themselves with their oversized sense of entitlement, their arrogance, their lack of planning, their FPTP system that means little engagement in politics, and last but not least, their post colonial hubris.

Woops.

As has been said here before, can't imagine any government could include no deal as an option, though nothing would surprise me at this point.

ancapailldorcha

The problem with adding a no deal option is that it would split the leave vote and therefore might permit the referendum from proceeding. In 2016, Vote Leave found that changing the question from a Yes/No to a Remain/Leave increased their share by 4% and they successfully lobbied for it to be changed accordingly.

Unless it was either a Remain/Deal or Remain/RemainX/Leave with deal/No deal, I can't see how it would be considered a fair choice.

ancapailldorcha

Off topic posts deleted.

brickster69

EU now proposing waivers for derivative clearing for the City of London. How very kind of them.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-derivatves/eu-watchdogs-propose-no-deal-brexit-waivers-for-derivatives-idUSKCN1NY1F3


Meanwhile in other news

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/deutsche-bank-offices-raided-connection-with-panama-papers

Very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone coming i fear. When has a global bank ever been raided by 170 cops before !!!!!!!

Captain Obvious

This is quite amazing.

https://twitter.com/antoniafrances/status/1068120540622319617

Complete disinformation campaign with actors and all.

Zubeneschamali

brickster69 wrote: »

EU now proposing waivers for derivative clearing for the City of London. How very kind of them. !

Did you even read the story? Did you imagine no-one else would read it?


The European Banking Authority, European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, said in a joint statement the limited exemption would give market participants time to “novate” or shift contracts from Britain to the EU.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/deutsche-bank-offices-raided-connection-with-panama-papers

Very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone coming i fear. When has a global bank ever been raided by 170 cops before !!!!!!!

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

Captain Obvious

Interesting timing on that bank raid alongside a raid on a major law firm in the US and a plea deal with Michael Cohen.

Anthracite

Deleted User wrote: »

Never underestimate the influence of parliamentary arithmetic when the need arises. Look at the DUP.

I think we would have to go well past arithmetic and into imaginary numbers before we see a Healy Rae Taoiseach.

badtoro

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/deutsche-bank-offices-raided-connection-with-panama-papers

Very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone coming i fear. When has a global bank ever been raided by 170 cops before !!!!!!!

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

It doesn't. Glad to see authorities doing their job, rotten apples in most barrels. Would love to see such raids in Londinium, not that any money laundering goes on there at all at all.

badtoro

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If and just saying IF there is another referendum, what do you think the choices should be?

1. WA
2. Stay in EU

Or what?

I think it is just too problematic. If leaving without an agreement is an option, that could win. Hard Brexit.

Such a fkn mess. But the only ones to blame are the British (well Brexiteers) themselves with their oversized sense of entitlement, their arrogance, their lack of planning, their FPTP system that means little engagement in politics, and last but not least, their post colonial hubris.

Woops.

No deal should be on it. The Brexit boil needs to be lanced and the Brits need to own their own decision.

Professor Moriarty

badtoro wrote: »

It doesn't. Glad to see authorities doing their job, rotten apples in most barrels. Would love to see such raids in Londinium, not that any money laundering goes on there at all at all.

No. Perish the thought.

brickster69

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

Akrasia

brickster69 wrote: »

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

Ah, zerohedge. When have they ever been wrong in the past?

Oh yeah, forgot about the bazillion other crashes and collapses they predicted that haven't happened

Water John

That raid may be connected to Mueller.

hometruths

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Did you even read the story? Did you imagine no-one else would read it?


The European Banking Authority, European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, said in a joint statement the limited exemption would give market participants time to “novate” or shift contracts from Britain to the EU.

This is actually exactly what solodeogloria was talking about all that time ago as well. That London will still be a financial powerhouse even in the event of Brexit. This was also confirmed by the EU that they will not be set up initially to take over all the tasks from London on Brexit day. Basically it seems that if this proposal goes ahead then market participants will have 12 months to shift contract to the EU. I don't think this means what the poster think it does.

Shelga

The amount of clapping on Question Time this Wetherspoons guy is getting for saying that the UK will immediately be better off after a no deal is quite scary.

Mr.Nice Guy

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

May is a committed unionist. She would never sanction something like this, and even if she tried it she would lose all the support she has as the party is very vocal about its support for the union. There was a story back in March where she reportedly warned one of her colleagues to be careful about the prospect of a border poll as she was concerned they might not win it.

Anyway the GFA is clear that it is the Secretary of State that sanctions a border poll, and only when it is believed that it's likely to return a pro-Unity vote.

blanch152

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

A united Ireland referendum at this point in time would be a breach of the Good Friday Agreement and a decision to call one under the GFA would probably be the subject of a judicial review.

FrancieBrady

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

Although I wouldn't be suprised if she did it, using a UI as a pawn in her own survival would be a despicable act in a long line of them.

Larbre34

I think we can all agree that whatever happens next, it won't be in any way under Theresa May's control.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

The amount of clapping on Question Time this Wetherspoons guy is getting for saying that the UK will immediately be better off after a no deal is quite scary.

QT has been Brexit Central since the referendum.

FrancieBrady

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think we can all agree that whatever happens next, it won't be in any way under Theresa May's control.

It is very close to being a rogue state the way it is going, leaderless and rudderless. It has lost it's it's way and doesn't seem to have a leader to lead.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

market participants will have 12 months to shift contract to the EU. .

The EU doesn't want anyone to lose their investments, look, you can protect them by moving them to the nice, safe EU.


After all, does the Mad Max post apocalyptic hellscape that is Croydon look like a safe haven for your money?

Mr.Nice Guy

Watching QT now and it's depressing listening to so many mature people (in age not sense) hellbent on depriving their children and grandchildren of a prosperous future. The selfish generation.