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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Zubeneschamali

brickster69 wrote: »

EU now proposing waivers for derivative clearing for the City of London. How very kind of them. !

Did you even read the story? Did you imagine no-one else would read it?

The European Banking Authority, European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, said in a joint statement the limited exemption would give market participants time to “novate” or shift contracts from Britain to the EU.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/deutsche-bank-offices-raided-connection-with-panama-papers

Very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone coming i fear. When has a global bank ever been raided by 170 cops before !!!!!!!

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

Captain Obvious

Interesting timing on that bank raid alongside a raid on a major law firm in the US and a plea deal with Michael Cohen.

Anthracite

Deleted User wrote: »

Never underestimate the influence of parliamentary arithmetic when the need arises. Look at the DUP.

I think we would have to go well past arithmetic and into imaginary numbers before we see a Healy Rae Taoiseach.

badtoro

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/deutsche-bank-offices-raided-connection-with-panama-papers

Very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone coming i fear. When has a global bank ever been raided by 170 cops before !!!!!!!

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

It doesn't. Glad to see authorities doing their job, rotten apples in most barrels. Would love to see such raids in Londinium, not that any money laundering goes on there at all at all.

badtoro

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If and just saying IF there is another referendum, what do you think the choices should be?

1. WA
2. Stay in EU

Or what?

I think it is just too problematic. If leaving without an agreement is an option, that could win. Hard Brexit.

Such a fkn mess. But the only ones to blame are the British (well Brexiteers) themselves with their oversized sense of entitlement, their arrogance, their lack of planning, their FPTP system that means little engagement in politics, and last but not least, their post colonial hubris.

Woops.

No deal should be on it. The Brexit boil needs to be lanced and the Brits need to own their own decision.

Professor Moriarty

badtoro wrote: »

It doesn't. Glad to see authorities doing their job, rotten apples in most barrels. Would love to see such raids in Londinium, not that any money laundering goes on there at all at all.

No. Perish the thought.

brickster69

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

Akrasia

brickster69 wrote: »

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

Ah, zerohedge. When have they ever been wrong in the past?

Oh yeah, forgot about the bazillion other crashes and collapses they predicted that haven't happened

Water John

That raid may be connected to Mueller.

hometruths

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Did you even read the story? Did you imagine no-one else would read it?

The European Banking Authority, European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, said in a joint statement the limited exemption would give market participants time to “novate” or shift contracts from Britain to the EU.

This is actually exactly what solodeogloria was talking about all that time ago as well. That London will still be a financial powerhouse even in the event of Brexit. This was also confirmed by the EU that they will not be set up initially to take over all the tasks from London on Brexit day. Basically it seems that if this proposal goes ahead then market participants will have 12 months to shift contract to the EU. I don't think this means what the poster think it does.

Shelga

The amount of clapping on Question Time this Wetherspoons guy is getting for saying that the UK will immediately be better off after a no deal is quite scary.

Mr.Nice Guy

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

May is a committed unionist. She would never sanction something like this, and even if she tried it she would lose all the support she has as the party is very vocal about its support for the union. There was a story back in March where she reportedly warned one of her colleagues to be careful about the prospect of a border poll as she was concerned they might not win it.

Anyway the GFA is clear that it is the Secretary of State that sanctions a border poll, and only when it is believed that it's likely to return a pro-Unity vote.

blanch152

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

A united Ireland referendum at this point in time would be a breach of the Good Friday Agreement and a decision to call one under the GFA would probably be the subject of a judicial review.

FrancieBrady

schmittel wrote: »

Surely we're getting to the stage where Teresa May must be tempted to at least threaten a united Ireland referendum to break the deadlock?

The thought of it may Bring the DUP into line and a few of the other precious Union tories.

And for all the time they're spending talking about the impossibilities of all the options should her deal get defeated in the meaningful vote, at least a UI referendum has the potential to solve the problem.

I get that May does not want to be the PM responsible for breaking up their union, but really if no deal Brexit is as bad as bank of England says so then it may be a price worth paying?

What am I missing? Why is this not being discussed more in Westminster? She is being asked repeatedly what are the options if her deal is defeated? Why does she not say "well one option is obviously to ask the people of NI if they want to remain in the Uk, and if 50.01% don't then there is the solution to the backstop problem."

Although I wouldn't be suprised if she did it, using a UI as a pawn in her own survival would be a despicable act in a long line of them.

Larbre34

I think we can all agree that whatever happens next, it won't be in any way under Theresa May's control.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

The amount of clapping on Question Time this Wetherspoons guy is getting for saying that the UK will immediately be better off after a no deal is quite scary.

QT has been Brexit Central since the referendum.

FrancieBrady

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think we can all agree that whatever happens next, it won't be in any way under Theresa May's control.

It is very close to being a rogue state the way it is going, leaderless and rudderless. It has lost it's it's way and doesn't seem to have a leader to lead.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

market participants will have 12 months to shift contract to the EU. .

The EU doesn't want anyone to lose their investments, look, you can protect them by moving them to the nice, safe EU.

After all, does the Mad Max post apocalyptic hellscape that is Croydon look like a safe haven for your money?

Mr.Nice Guy

Watching QT now and it's depressing listening to so many mature people (in age not sense) hellbent on depriving their children and grandchildren of a prosperous future. The selfish generation.

Dyr

blanch152 wrote: »

A united Ireland referendum at this point in time would be a breach of the Good Friday Agreement and a decision to call one under the GFA would probably be the subject of a judicial review.

As much as your fellow partitionists up north might want to wish it was the case, that red herring has already been attempted and thrown out of court.

SoS for NI has only has to be of the opinion that a majority no longer wish to be a part of the UK and he/she can call a border poll, provided there hasn't been one in the previous seven years.

bish bosh bash.

Spook_ie

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sky would be pointless - Pay channel which more people do not have than do (we forget this in Ireland where pay cable and Sky sat are ubiquitous)

It has to be on BBC One or ITV.

Thought sky news was FTA

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

The two articles are completely unconnected. You seem to be posting links without having read them. What is your point?

Anthracite

brickster69 wrote: »

Why does this have very serious consequences for everyone in the Eurozone?

QE was effectively a life support mechanism for DB and Italian Banks which has failed

DB Derivative exposure is $52 Trillion against a Eurozone GDP of $13.4 Trillion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system

Those derivitives might net out to zero. People are always trotting out these massive numbers, relying on the audience not understanding what they mean.

Shelga

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

QT has been Brexit Central since the referendum.

Every week when I watch it I just think, jesus just let them leave with no deal and face the consequences. The average QT audience member’s ignorance and stupidity makes me despair. I know the right-wing media in the UK bears a lot of the responsibility, but if people are still saying they just need a PM who ‘believes’ in Brexit and everything will be great- seriously, just let them destroy their country. Most of Europe just does not care anymore. Their arrogance is disgusting.

I left the UK two years ago, after living there for five years, and every day I am thankful for my timing. It’s not a nice place to be right now, and it’s such a shame.

Water John

Liam Fox now supporting TM Deal. What do any of these people actually believe in or does it change from week to week?

EdgeCase

I know this may sound a bit harsh but I'm now of the opinion that Brexit has to happen and if it's a crash out, so be it. They will just have to learn the hard way that there are consequences to political decisions and that they are not just having a debate in the pub. This is the real world.

If Brexit doesn't happen, the outcome is likely to be never ending instability in the UK and that has an issue for the EU. It's not as if the result were reversed that the Brexiteer politics would go away. You'd just have a slight bit of calm and then they would be back ranting and raving again in a few months time.

You can warn people of the risks of a decision they are taking, but you can't prevent them from taking it. The British electorate are perfectly entitled to chose something that is enormously damaging to their own interests - that's democracy.

I mean you can explain hundreds of times that fire is hot but if someone's determined to stick their finger into it, what can you do?

Anthracite

Shelga wrote: »

The amount of clapping on Question Time this Wetherspoons guy is getting for saying that the UK will immediately be better off after a no deal is quite scary.

Part of me so badly wants to see these people proved spectacularly wrong.

nc6000

Captain Obvious wrote: »

This is quite amazing.

https://twitter.com/antoniafrances/status/1068120540622319617

Complete disinformation campaign with actors and all.

Wow, I saw her on Newsnight earlier in the week. I'm surprised the BBC were fooled like that.