Autumn 2018 - General discussion

Captain Snow

Loughc wrote: »

Username checks out :pac:

Last one I swear :P

Glorious......:D

DOCARCH

Captain Snow wrote: »

Glorious......:D

Could be fun if we can get flow NE!

kittyn

DOCARCH wrote: »

Captain Snow wrote: »

Glorious......:D

Could be fun if we can get flow NE!

Could we see our first flurries I wonder ???

DOCARCH

kittyn wrote: »

Could we see our first flurries I wonder ???

Maybe a bit of sleet....I'd be more thinking of hail and lightning/thunder (like October 2003).

Elmer Blooker

DOCARCH wrote: »

Maybe a bit of sleet....I'd be more thinking of hail and lightning/thunder (like October 2003).

I clearly remember a fantastic display of Aurora about a week after that lightning so Oct 2003 was a very special month for sky watching! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween_solar_storms,_2003

m17

Corofin co galway 25/10/18 6.22 pm temperature 8°C

sryanbruen

UK Met Office:

"There are weak signals for high pressure to develop to the north and east towards mid November which could result in any weather systems being diverted away from the UK"

Lots of interest high up I must say right now and potentially for the foreseeable future, excuse the bad pun.

The AO and NAO indexes still forecast to be on the negative side into early November with brief rises to neutral from time to time - can't always be consistently negative. This negative switch on the indexes will result in higher chances of blocking to the north sending the jet stream southwards.

There's a lot of talk right now about the chances of a cold November. I'll believe it when I see it, not confident on a cold November personally! My November forecast that I set in my Autumn forecast at the end of August was for a mild and possibly very wet November. No sign of overly mild conditions soon but there has been a trend of more unsettled weather.

It's all very weird right now. Zonal wind speeds are well above average with the stratosphere much colder than average. Why are we not seeing a response to this in the weather patterns at the moment is because there is a tropospheric-stratospheric disconnection, much like late Autumn 2016 had. The GFS (as well as the CFS ensembles) continue to forecast a weakening of the Polar Vortex through early to mid-November. There has been talks also of a sudden stratospheric warming at the end of November. This has been a constant trend from the CFS - see Michael Ventrices' tweets below. However, still extremely unlikely as I've explained before, a November SSW (as well as December for that matter) is very rare.

Time will tell....

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1054776028357427201

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055105689180405760

Artane2002

^^ And of course November 2016 brought very cold weather at times. I remember I had an early snow shower in mid November (17th?). We also had a near ice day towards the end of the month, I think temps maxed out at 1C in Dublin Airport that day (27th?). I've probably said this a million times by now, but November 2016 is my 2nd favourite November after November 2010. Also, it was better than all the winter months that year and had more wintry weather.

m17

Co Wexford 28/11/10 -10°C

Meteorite58

Very little rain from the front so far, colder airmass coming into view into the NW containing a lot of showers.

mountainy man

Pink Blob Alert!

The Netweather radar is showing pink blobs, lots of pink blobs!

Artane2002

Clearing up in Dublin 5 leaving us with relatively strong moonlight at the moment.

Donegal Storm

First wintry shower of the season in Donegal with hail and some splatters of very wet sleet visible on the velux windows. Horrible morning though, cold, dark and wet

Gonzo

sunny and breezy here at Dunshaughlin, it's cold but at least it's sunny.

Meteorite58

Blustery showers here in Tralee, cold on the backs of the legs, got wet a few times already

Bite in the wind but getting some sunny spells also.

Captain Snow

I started this Thread on Netweather in October 2006. Kinda hope we would get something like it this weekend. But not enough instability in the Atmosphere.


https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/33065-x-treme-irish-weather-october-2003/

sryanbruen

Beautiful in Dublin 13! Cold and sunny. Along with that, mid-term now for me. I’m certainly a happy bunny.

Kutebride

Lovely skies in Meath. Bitter on school run. Sun out now helps warm it up a little.
Watching all the showers on raintoday approach from the N & NW. are they approaching us or fading off on approach?

highdef

Kutebride wrote: »

Lovely skies in Meath. Bitter on school run. Sun out now helps warm it up a little.
Watching all the showers on raintoday approach from the N & NW. are they approaching us or fading off on approach?

Fading on approach. Ulster, Connaught and west Munster is where most of the showers will be. On the flip side, the other areas will experience the coldest temperatures over the next few nights.

Kermit.de.frog

Tonight likely to be the coldest night of the season so far ranging around -1 to 2c by dawn. Decent breeze will mostly prevent any frost though.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the odd flake in the mix of those wintry showers in the west and north over the next day or two particularly in heavier showers.

Could be down to -3 or -4c by Sunday night with winds falling light and still in the cold airmass. Certainly a frost that night.

Not bad for October.

odyboody

sryanbruen wrote: »

Beautiful in Dublin 13! Cold and sunny. Along with that, mid-term now for me. I’m certainly a happy bunny.

Dont know how you get the time to do this and study.:eek:
Thanks on behalf of everyone on here.

Elmer Blooker

Captain Snow wrote: »

I started this Thread on Netweather in October 2006. Kinda hope we would get something like it this weekend. But not enough instability in the Atmosphere.
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/33065-x-treme-irish-weather-october-2003/

Very disappointing altogether. I was expecting better over the Irish Sea today. Some towering cloud tops can be seen very far away and the NW radar shows that they roughly between the Isle of Man and Liverpool.
The wind is veering N'ly now but not enough instability as you say.

Billcarson

Satellite shot at midday today.

SleetAndSnow

Strange weather in cork city today. Bitter this morning walking to school (was about 6 degrees but the wind was cold). Going out for lunch at 11am was cold and wet, at 1pm lunch it was bitterly cold wind but sunny and walking home at 4 it was warmer (wind died down and sun was warm). Coming back from voting just now and it’s very windy again, cold but warm in the brief sun with no wind. Showery though.

Darwin

Went out walking earlier to vote too, it was nice and warm initially, then a shower passed over and I got soaked and it felt especially cold with the wind blowing. I dried out on the walk home as it got warm again with the sun shining. A bit of everything out there today!

m17

Athlone 25/10/18 8.25am temperature 4°C

Donegal Storm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Very disappointing altogether. I was expecting better over the Irish Sea today. Some towering cloud tops can be seen very far away and the NW radar shows that they roughly between the Isle of Man and Liverpool.
The wind is veering N'ly now but not enough instability as you say.

Heavy hail shoes in Donegal today but no sign of any thunder.

Is it just me or has the past year been exceptionally un-thundery? There was one night back in May (which I missed!) but it's been totally dead for the most part, in fact now that I think of it I don't think I've seen a single flash of lightning since moving back to Ireland 18 months ago

Artane2002

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Heavy hail shoes in Donegal today but no sign of any thunder.

Is it just me or has the past year been exceptionally un-thundery? There was one night back in May (which I missed!) but it's been totally dead for the most part, in fact now that I think of it I don't think I've seen a single flash of lightning since moving back to Ireland 18 months ago

Hail shoes :P

It's been a nice, cold, mostly sunny day here in Dublin. There were some cloudy intervals and a few drops of rain but other than that it's been nice.

Billcarson

First time since Oct 2012 that I've recorded an Oct day with a single digit max temperature . Max of 9.3c.

Meteorite58

Billcarson wrote: »

Satellite shot at midday today.

Frequent quick moving showers here in Tralee, 3.0mm recorded. Was out a lot today and it kept going from dark under clouds to dazzling with the sun out minutes later. The afternoon felt like a short shower every 10 mins.

15.00 approx Tralee Town