Autumn 2018 - General discussion

YFlyer

MJohnston wrote: »

What does *your* liking have to do with anything?

Weather systems don't follow such a smooth trend.

Lets revisit this next summer.

YFlyer

And btw when was that graph generated?

Gaoth Laidir

YFlyer, the grey is not a forecast, it's the climatology of the model, based on observations. Within the light grey shows where 95.45% of all observations lie. Only the red line is the forecast

YFlyer

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

YFlyer, the grey is not a forecast, it's the climatology of the model, based on observations. Within the light grey shows where 95.45% of all observations lie. Only the red line is the forecast

That light grey is a wide band.

Meteorite58

So it’s definitely looks likely to be fairly cold Sunday morning/ early afternoon?
I have a few friends running marathon on Sunday morning and they are trying to gauge clothing options.

Just a preliminary look at the way the day could turn out in Dublin next Sun.

Cool early start 1C to 4C
Getting up to 8C or 9C perhaps.
Fresh Northerly wind on the coast, breezy N'ly wind inland.
Could be a fairly sharp windchill making it feel like more like 4C or 5C.
Some showers possible.
Cooling quickly early evening.

Best of luck.

Gaoth Laidir

YFlyer wrote: »

That light grey is a wide band.

Yes it is, reflecting the huge range in observational values over the years. Nothing strange about it. Why did you think it was bull?

ZX7R

I recall 3 halloweens that had snow fall one around 1998 one around 2005 the third one would have been between those years anyone hasared a guess at the third

pauldry

Whats the highest pressure ever where rain was recorded

its 1036mb in Sligo now n its raining

The 1043mb October record is in danger tomorrow

Billcarson

ZX7R wrote: »

I recall 3 halloweens that had snow fall one around 1998 one around 2005 the third one would have been between those years anyone hasared a guess at the third

Halloween 2000 was a cold one ,think there was wintry showers about in places in the wake of a cold front that moved through that evening. Some frost about later in the night too if I remember.

Kermit.de.frog

Very unusual that this depth of cold air would be this far south in October. Temperatures would be a good 8 - 10c below average for the time of year here. Also note as these runs progress the progged temperatures over Scandinavia are also falling away with each run.



Frosty nights and some wintry showers this coming weekend but also good sunshine in the dry crisp air. A shock to the system. So yeah, not the typical start to winter.

Meteorite58

Front clearing Ireland earlier today.



Turned out a lovely Autumn afternoon here near Tralee getting up to 15.1C, cool clear night now at 7C.

ZX7R

Billcarson wrote: »

Halloween 2000 was a cold one ,think there was wintry showers about in places in the wake of a cold front that moved through that evening. Some frost about later in the night too if I remember.

Thanks Bill
98 sticks out in mind as I was working in a chilling factory at the time,I remember we were sticking our hands in the small amount of snow cover and it feeling warm
I think your right about 2000 , where I was working that year the road were pretty iced up with slush I was first in work still got a warning for been late.
I was doing building work in newbridge for the third snow wasn't sticking but remember the Philippine cleaner's all outside standing in aow ,it was there first time to see snow.
Good memories.
Even if my mind is starting to forget exact dates

pauldry

Pressure now 1044mb off Sherkin Island.

Is that a record?

DOCARCH

pauldry wrote: »

Pressure now 1044mb off Sherkin Island.

Is that a record?

High pressure record for October was 1043.0mb at Malin Head (on 31st) in 1956.

That record is broken today. A number of stations reporting 1043mb, and, Sherkin Island/Cork Airport both reporting 1044mb at 1000.

All time record is 1051.9mb at Valentia on 28th January 1905.

Gaoth Laidir

DOCARCH wrote: »

High pressure record for October was 1043.0mb at Malin Head (on 31st) in 1956.

That record is broken today. A number of stations reporting 1043mb, and, Sherkin Island/Cork Airport both reporting 1044mb at 1000.

Actual readings:

Sherkin Island (10Z) MSLP 1043.8 (station pressure 1041.1).
Valentia (10, 11Z) MSLP 1043.8 (station pressure 1040.7).
Cork Airport (09Z) MSPL 1043.5 (station pressure 1023.0).

So Sherkin Island is the station with the highest absolute station pressure.

Gaoth Laidir

Valentia got to 1043.9 hPa at 13Z (station pressure 1040.8).

Tramore (Co Waterford) was like the Costa del Sol today

Glorious sunshine, calm blue sea, and people sitting outside cafes eating ice-cream.

On Oct 22nd!

Meteorite58

Got up to 1043.3 hPa here near Tralee

Fabulous day with a high of 14.3C

Kutebride

Most stunning day today on Howth Head (not sure how to attach photos)

Artane2002

It was a cold, clear start in Dublin 13. Got a little cloudier later on but still sunny. Very pleasant day

Pangea

It's got pretty windy and gusty here in the NW

Gonzo

plenty of sun again here today. Will be interesting to see how much sun we get this month in total, there has certainly been lots of dry and sunny days here this month, that would put some summer months to shame.

Captain Snow

And so it begins. Some light Snow showers on higher ground for sure. It will be dry too. Nice cold frosty weather.

Oscar Bravo

Lovely evening. Clear skies with an almost full moon just coming up now. 10 degrees ,westerly wind easing off.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

plenty of sun again here today. Will be interesting to see how much sun we get this month in total, there has certainly been lots of dry and sunny days here this month, that would put some summer months to shame.

Irish stations' daily/monthly sunshine totals up to 22nd October 2018 compared with full monthly sunshine totals (1st-31st) for October 2017. It has already been sunnier than the full month of October 2017*. October 2017 was the dullest on record at Cork Airport. Still just over a week to go to add to the final totals. Would need a good run to get close to the absolute sunniest ones on record though (2003, 2008 and 2010).



Data comes from Met Éireann.

KingdomRushed

I’m expecting nice cold autumnal weather with frosts and crunchy leaves coming up. I would urge caution though on an expectation for real cold! That will never be a likely outcome until at least the end of November no matter how juicy the charts look. But overall, it’s great to see seasonal weather being promised in the weeks to come.

If the sort of weather patterns we’ve seen appear regularly since late February keep up then I do think we have a good chance for a cold December - my favourite month for cold weather - Christmas and all that

Billcarson

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I’m expecting nice cold autumnal weather with frosts and crunchy leaves coming up. I would urge caution though on an expectation for real cold! That will never be a likely outcome until at least the end of November no matter how juicy the charts look. But overall, it’s great to see seasonal weather being promised in the weeks to come.

If the sort of weather patterns we’ve seen appear regularly since late February keep up then I do think we have a good chance for a cold December - my favourite month for cold weather - Christmas and all that

Indeed, nice seasonal weather is all I want atm. Snow can wait for at least another few weeks , getting really good charts are a bit of a waste at this time of yr. Much more useful a few weeks down the line. For now cold crisp autumnal weather will do me for now.

Artane2002

Clearing up now after a cloudy evening here in Carlingford.

smurph6

How's Friday looking in the South West. Thinking of climbing Carrauntoehill

Elmer Blooker

I think those of us on the east coast and perhaps NW too, should see lightning flashes out at sea on Fri night/Sat morning. I could be wrong as pressure may be a bit too high?
Memories of Oct 2003 but it won't as good as the airflow was more ne'ly then.