Autumn 2018 - General discussion

Gaoth Laidir

I think we're in for a very foggy period in the coming weeks. One of those that leads to disruption every few years. I remember one such period in early December a good few years back in the early-mid 2000s?

Meteorite58

Beautiful calm sunny morning here near Tralee, already 16.6C.

Gonzo

Sunny and warm here at Dunshaughlin. Still currently wearing a t-shirt outside.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

Sunny and warm here at Dunshaughlin. Still currently wearing a t-shirt outside.

Cloudy but bright to your southwest, just over the border in North Kildare. Looks like the sun may break through properly soon though. Rather breezy though.

Meteorite58

17.6C here near Tralee !

ZX7R

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think we're in for a very foggy period in the coming weeks. One of those that leads to disruption every few years. I remember one such period in early December a good few years back in the early-mid 2000s?

Remember that ,I believe there was a big crash on the n7 or m7
There was a fatality if I remember correctly

mrsnrub2.0

Wearing shorts on the 20th October in Dun Laoghaire.

I'd say you'd get burnt if you spent a few hours outside.

highdef

mrsnrub2.0 wrote: »

Wearing shorts on the 20th October in Dun Laoghaire.

I'd say you'd get burnt if you spent a few hours outside.

Very unlikely for anyone to get a sunburn today, unless you have some skin condition that makes you extra sensitive to UV radiation. UV index today is about 2 at most. Remember, the temperature you feel from the sun has little or no bearing on the radiation hitting your skin. It's quite warm and sunny today but the UV index today is most likely to be a bit lower to what it was last Thursday, when it was also sunny but not as warm, as the sun is that bit lower in the sky today versus Thursday.

If you were to be high up in the snow covered Alps in the middle of summer in shorts and t-shirt, you'd be burnt to a crisp in an hour (much less if you are fair skinned), even if you were freezing your ass off.

SleetAndSnow

Grey sky and fog all day in Cork City pretty much.

m17

Stateside

Meteorite58

Got up to 19.1C here near Tralee. I thought my readings might be a bit high compared to the Met stations until I saw the Sat Pic showing a hole in the cloud over my location. From the ground could see the cloud North and E of me. Filled in the afternoon but broke up a bit again early evening leaving in some nice evening sunshine.

Still a very mild 15C with the cloud closed in again locking in the warmth.

sryanbruen

And we're off!

MidMan25

Brief explanation of that chart Syran?

SleetAndSnow

Just saw carlow weathers tweet and it looks like 1 degrees during the day/negatives? 2pm? Is that at a certain height or

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1053702910373191682

Artane2002

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Just saw carlow weathers tweet and it looks like 1 degrees during the day/negatives? 2pm? Is that at a certain height or

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1053702910373191682

I'm not sure what exactly that is. I'm going to guess that it's the lowest temperature in the 6 hours preceding that chart. Someone can confirm I'm sure?

spookwoman

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm not sure what exactly that is. I'm going to guess that it's the lowest temperature in the 6 hours preceding that chart. Someone can confirm I'm sure?

Minimum temperature over 6 hours

ZX7R

I believe that's ground d temperature up to 1 meter,
I could be wrong.
-4 uppers at 850
I can't see how ground temperature could reach that low with -4 uppers unless there is lying snow cover.
Cold rain and a slight dusting to the highest peaks is all I can see from those charts .
Hard frost at night

It's temperature for last 6 hours posted by another poster.
Frost from early morning so.
I thought it was temperature at that time

spookwoman

27th showing snow for Wicklow

SleetAndSnow

Well, theres fog up high in cork city tonight which i expect will drop even further, very dense. Noticed it when walking home just now with two planes. Can usually see their lights but they were so low down and could only hear the engines!

Kermit.de.frog

It does look like the first cold spell of the season will occur toward the end of next week with a couple of very cold nights for the time of year and some wintriness in the showers over higher ground for a time.





Exciting eh?

sryanbruen

MidMan25 wrote: »

Brief explanation of that chart Syran?

It's showing the mean zonal wind speeds at 10hPa in the stratosphere, the red line at the end is the GFS ensemble mean of what they predict the zonal wind speeds to be into the beginning of November. The black line is the trend (whilst the blue line is where we've been in 2018-19 so far) or average of how the zonal wind speeds should go. At first we have stronger than normal zonal wind speeds but due to how disorganised the Polar Vortex is, there is not much tropospheric response to this - would usually mean stormy and mild if there was. At the start of November, the trend of the GFS ensembles is downwards to weak zonal wind speed levels i.e. slower than average. This translates to an increased risk of blocking around the Arctic which obviously increases the chance of colder than average conditions for us. Whether this slow trend in early November is a sign of what's to come (i.e. a rare SSW event in November/December like in 1962) or a toppler waits to be seen. Whatever the case, I will be focusing on the stratosphere as it's one of my favourite things to monitor every Winter as you might have imagined given my posts last Winter .

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1053772087029063681

JCX BXC

Finding it slightly difficult to sleep tonight, 14.7c, light drizzle and 95% humidity. Nothing bizzare just unusual for October.

m17

Irelands temperature 20/10/18
Athenry 15.7
Ballyhaise 14.8
Casement 16.7
Claremorris 14.8
Cork airport 13.4
Dublin airport 17.0
Finner camp 17.8
Gurteen 16.7
Knock airport 13.7
Malin head 17.1
Oak Park 17.6
Shannon airport 17.6
Valentina 14.1

YFlyer

MidMan25 wrote: »

Brief explanation of that chart Syran?

That chart is bull.

sryanbruen

YFlyer wrote: »

That chart is bull.

What?

YFlyer

sryanbruen wrote: »

What?

That graph be more accurate to predict lack of daylight.

sryanbruen

YFlyer wrote: »

That graph be more accurate to predict lack of daylight.

I have no idea what you are talking about or get the point of your comments.

Artane2002

YFlyer wrote: »

That graph be more accurate to predict lack of daylight.

It's a professional forecast, not a James Madden-style long range winter forecast.

YFlyer

sryanbruen wrote: »

I have no idea what you are talking about or get the point of your comments.

That prediction line you put up is too smooth for my liking.

MJohnston

YFlyer wrote: »

That prediction line you put up is too smooth for my liking.

What does *your* liking have to do with anything?