Autumn 2018 - General discussion

BliainanAir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I like September. The cold pooling starts tentatively at the polar latitudes and the long fight back begins!

Hope they don't encroach on Ireland until late November I love Septembers that are more summery in nature than autumnal. Plenty of days 20C and above.

Mini heatwaves like 1991, 1998, 2003 where 25C is exceeded 'readily' as Siobhan Ryan would say. Beautiful hazy golden Octobers with temperatures in the high teens, occasionally touching 20C. Like October 1994 and 2003 for most of the country (bar hail and thunder mid month in the east). Days as late as the 19th October 1997 reaching 21C in warm sunshine, not a November moist southerly.

Let early November bring the first air frosts rather than October. Let the winter rains begin then. Let any blasts from the north and north east occur the last week of November when they are potent enough for snowfall, like 2010, rather than sleety cold northerlies in late October to mid November which only deliver to high ground and are just a waste of good synoptics for most of us.

If temperatures of 12-15C hit in too early in September, like 1992, the winter is very long. And in that particular year after a cold September and October the winter had little snow or real cold, just dark dank winter.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Just thought I would start this thread as Autumn quickly approaches. People can post here all things pertaining to Autumn. Will kick it off with an excellent post by BiliainanAir that I moved from the FI thread as it is better suited here.

sryanbruen

This is going to be my forecast for Autumn 2018 because the day has come now for me to release it. I'm going to explain a couple of phenomena and their impact for the coming Autumn then give a summary of what my analogues had to say as a reminder for the Autumn and last but not least, my actual thoughts for the Autumn based on everything we've looked at including analogues and models.

The current state of the North Atlantic Ocean is a strange one with a large cold blob to the northeast of the North Atlantic but very warm over towards Newfoundland. The tropics are at about average levels. This combination of sea surface temperature anomalies leads to believe a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is likely especially given the cold blob which was last seen in 2016 before this year and therefore, this means milder than average temperatures are more likely than below average. The tropics have significantly warmed up through the Summer compared to where it was in May which will lead to a ramp up in tropical developments. This can lead to quite big changes in the Atlantic to allow patterns to change such as the NAO. The latest ensembles are perfectly split on where the NAO will go in early September indicating the uncertainty and I think the warming of the tropics is aiding this uncertainty. However, in theory, you'd think a positive NAO is the most likely this Autumn. This will be highly unusual if it verifies because the NAO has already had a record breaking long run of positivity from April to August 2018.

ENSO is currently in neutral stages and I expect it to remain so through this Autumn with no significant deviations occurring. However, models like the CFSv2 are keen on El Nino to occur beginning in the Autumn. I am extremely dubious about this as the ocean has not shown its reaction towards El Nino. Therefore, with neutral levels, ENSO is not likely to have much impact this Autumn on the weather.

The Polar Vortex, which is the ribbon of air that surrounds the Arctic Circle disallowing cold air from filtering down into the mid-latitudes, is expected to be weak this Autumn by the CFS ensembles. In theory, this should mean that northern blocking would be more likely to occur with an increased chance of northerly or easterly incursions though not necessarily a cold or settled Autumn overall. With the state the North Atlantic Ocean is in, I would think easterlies are more likely than northerlies unless a massive shift takes place in the sea surface temperatures. This weakening of the Polar Vortex is theorised to aid the chances of a Canadian Warming occurring later in the Autumn into early Winter. A Canadian Warming is a type of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which occurs over in Canada mainly during November or December. A November Canadian Warming has occurred in 1962, 1968, 1977 and 2000; all of which were followed by cold Winters. This type of event can also lead to some cold spells or snaps in November itself as such happened in 1962 teasing what was gonna come in 1962-63.

On model runs recently, the Siberian High has appeared and it is quite early to be seeing this form on European charts especially to its extent shown. As a result, the snow cover extent through Eurasia is expected to be faster than average through this Autumn. When this occurs, it can be a sign of some colder interludes during the Autumn season but this is most importantly the case for Winter time.

In terms of long range models, well there's strong confidence from them on a milder than average Autumn which I have to agree with personally. I agree because of the state of the North Atlantic Ocean and mild Autumns occur much much more often than cold. I don't think it'll be like Autumn 2011 or 2006 type mild conditions, I think it will be an unremarkably mild Autumn. The models are far more mixed on the rainfall aspect though most are going wetter than average which I agree with again for this Autumn. Positive NAO in Autumn especially later on (November) usually means wetter than average conditions.

My analogues showed the prospects of a mixed September, a settled October whilst a very wet November for Autumn 2018. In contrast to the models which are very strong on a mild Autumn, there didn't seem to be much of a signal for the temperatures from the analogues for this Autumn. Going by the 500mb height anomalies in the analogues, September is likely to be close to average to milder than average. October is likely to be close to average though this largely depends on the exact alignment of high pressure and the wind direction. November is interesting because there have been signals in some analogues for quite a cold November and the Beijing Climate Centre model showed the possibility of this too but unsettled. The unsettled nature combined with the colder than average conditions would give away to some early wintry weather potential. However, I see this as a very small possibility and I predict November to be a stormy, mild month with a lot of rain and strong winds.

In summary,

September - A fairly mild and mixed month. Likely to be on the relatively wetter than average side but no big deviation.
October - Settled and fairly mild again. Lot of quiet weather.
November - Very wet, mild and stormy. Plenty of gales and rain.

Remember long range forecasting is not to be relied upon and is just for fun.

Graces7

Interesting re November... By then, and even occasionally now, we will be often cut off by winds and currents, so preparing well..The weather has great practical impact out here. I love that!

My deep instinct re the coming months matches yours.

Today a real autumnal chill in the air .

West Mayo; offshore island\

Kermit.de.frog

Really fine week or more coming up with high pressure dominating and winds predominantly easterly. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather.

Warm initially too especially in the west but could turn a good bit cooler toward the end of next week and some chilly nights as winds originate increasingly from the northeast.

Interesting Autumn contrasts.

JCX BXC

MÉ mention fog at night, are we into the foggy season already!

Lollipop95

Posting here as I saw on a news site that a category 4 hurricane is coming to Ireland in 2 weeks! Any thoughts on this?

JCX BXC

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Posting here as I saw on a news site that a category 4 hurricane is coming to Ireland in 2 weeks! Any thoughts on this?

Codswallop.

km79

JCX BXC wrote: »

MÉ mention fog at night, are we into the foggy season already!

Love a bit of fog

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

Codswallop.

Brilliant 👋👋

Darwin

JCX BXC wrote: »

Codswallop.

With the caveat that predicting weather for mid-September is futile, we can still speculate :P There is a feature developing off the Cabo Verde islands at present that has the potential to develop into a hurricane, and there is talk of steering winds pushing it towards the middle of the Atlantic next week. After that who knows, it could come our way in some shape or form.

JCX BXC

Darwin wrote: »

With the caveat that predicting weather for mid-September is futile, we can still speculate :P There is a feature developing off the Cabo Verde islands at present that has the potential to develop into a hurricane, and there is talk of steering winds pushing it towards the middle of the Atlantic next week. After that who knows, it could come our way in some shape or form.

It is, but to say a "Cat 4 Hurricane is coming to Ireland in 2 weeks" is clearly a load of nonsense. For such a specific storm power at such a specific time period to be predicted I'd say we need a good 100 more years of technological advancements.

Darwin

Agree, that was definitely a click bait headline, they took the tenuous developments I mentioned above and put a head and tail on it.

Graces7

Mild misty September morning. Had to cut short my early berry picking as the midges are swarming. Very quiet and muffled by the mist.

Maidhci

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Posting here as I saw on a news site that a category 4 hurricane is coming to Ireland in 2 weeks! Any thoughts on this?

Absolute nonsense - when you consider that the hurricane centre in the US stated on October 16th last year that the west and north west of Ireland would be impacted most by Ophelia, is enough for me to treat the forecasting of hurricane paths with alot of scepticism, even within a reasonably short timeframe, let alone some weeks hence.

Clonmel1000

Beautiful autumn morning sun out 16 degrees

giveitholly

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Beautiful autumn morning sun out 16 degrees

Yeah would take 2 months of this please

Xenji

A dull day in Castlebar, but warm and humid, currently 17.8C and 91% humidity.

Rock Lesnar

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Beautiful autumn morning sun out 16 degrees

Same here in the north east, long may it last

Gonzo

21C currently at my hometown of Dunshaughlin. reached 20C there yesterday.

Elmer Blooker

I don't know if this should be posted in the Summer or Autumn thread?
Anyway a glorious first day of meteorological Autumn, sunny and 20.8c.
I'm not sure why the Met.ie obs say Dublin Airport is cloudy when all I'm seeing is a bit of patchy cirrus.

JCX BXC

What a beautiful day, currently 22.0c in West Clare with a max of 22.6c. Getting a little cloudier now however. Best day of September so far.

Xenji

Brightened up nicely in Castlebar, looks like we will have a lovely evening, 19.7C max today.

Oscar Bravo

5pm met reports September 1st

Oak Park 23 degrees
Mullingar 22 degrees
Shannon 22 degrees
Gurteen 22 degrees
Casement 22 degrees

Meteorite58

Stunning weather for the first day of Autumn in Kerry getting up to 23.3C at my site near Tralee . Bit cloudier now but calm and pleasant with sunshine at 18.7C

Pic: NASA

Zapperzy

Beautiful first day of autumn in East Galway. Warm, mostly sunny and no rain. Patches of cloud all day, some of them dark looking but still no rain. Full month of this please after what felt like a whole August of rain.

km79

Better than any day during the final month of summer !
Just seen the post above
Also in east Galway !

SleetAndSnow

After a gorgeous morning, it’s dull now and it’s already getting dark at 20:30. Streetlights are on in cork city. Winter is coming. Cold breeze aswell, in the city center at least.

Meteorite58

Been a great day in Kerry topped off with a fantastic evening.

Pic: Fenit 20.00 approx

16.8C atm

MidMan25

Tralee bay really is beautiful, especially on a clear evening with the sun setting

Gonzo

amazing how the first few days of September/ first few back to School days never fails to disappoint with mid summer like conditions.

SleetAndSnow

Drizzling again in Cork City. Feels humid too, window is open again

Zapperzy

km79 wrote: »

Better than any day during the final month of summer !
Just seen the post above
Also in east Galway !

Did you happen to see a strange line in the sky west towards the city at around 8pm? Thought first it was just a trail from a plane but it had an orange glow and it was in a near perfectly straight vertical line. I could see something glowing as though it was falling from the sky in very slow motion. Maybe it was just a plane and the sun was causing the trail to look orange but it was strange how vertical it looked.

Knine

Gonzo wrote: »

amazing how the first few days of September/ first few back to School days never fails to disappoint with mid summer like conditions.

Unless you happen to be in a Tent on the coast lol. I think we are gonna end up in the Sea!!!

I must have missed the forecast about it being windy.

Graces7

Glad you all had a good day y'day.....

We had drizzle and rain y'day, then a clear evening., Warm last night though... Wind a-wailing now ...

West Mayo; offshore island

Oscar Bravo

Overcast morning here in Castlebar with thicker cloud rolling in from the atlantic but holding dry, for the moment. mild and humid with mist down on the hills.

SleetAndSnow

Clodu here in Cork city today but humid also.

Reading that the charts are changing their mind about a settled September. Just a question for the knowledgeable ones, a settled september, would that be good or bad for a cold winter? I'd say its already been answered a lot, sorry if it has, just couldn't find it

Gonzo

22C currently at Dunshaughlin, County Meath. It could well be the final warm day of 2018.

Meteorite58

Only 16.8C here near Tralee. Overcast dull damp day, mist and some light rain although hasn't tipped the gauge yet.

Won't be needing these anymore, ready for the attic , hopefully get to use them again next summer !

Calibos

Blue skies and a humid hot 23deg in Bray all morning.

Harry Palmr

Overcast bar a few brief spells, mild enough. Looks like the late summer weather promised will not quite happen this week

Mobhi1

Mostly sunny, and warm, in Dublin. It's 24.4C here now.

Clonmel1000

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Overcast bar a few brief spells, mild enough. Looks like the late summer weather promised will not quite happen this week

Has there been a downgrade?

Dull overcast and humid here rain on and off. Apologies to all those outraged by this negative report.

km79

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Has there been a downgrade?

Dull overcast and humid here rain on and off. Apologies to all those outraged by this negative report.

LOL
Don't ever change
I enjoy your posts

Oscar Bravo

A soft day here in the whest

The photo MT posted today of the view from his location is amazing.

Oscar Bravo

A clear end to the day here in Castlebar with lovely sunshine.Much fresher also. Could drop to 5 or 6 degress tonight.

acequion

Today was as horrible in the south west as yesterday was lovely. The realities of our climate!

Oscar Bravo

Lovely sunny morning here in Castebar.lots of dew on the grass. 10 degrees in little or no wind.

Calibos

Lovely sunny morning here in Bray. lots of dew on the grass. 15 degrees in little or no wind. ;-)

Mobhi1

Nice morning here in Glasnevin with a clear sky. But it's quite cool at 14.5C. And breezy.