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Autumn 2018 - General discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    A blustery night across the west

    11pm reports
    Mace head gusting 44 knots
    Knock 34 knots
    Belmullet 34 knots
    Finner 33 knots

    Felt and heard every last gust out here.. west mayo offshore island


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Autumn was decent up to the last few days of October. October was a really nice month. November however has been awful, one of the worst months I can remember in a long time. It seems like it's just rained almost continuously from start to finish, the past 2 weeks have been particularly bad with very little sun until today.

    And no let up in MTs forecasts. Miserable weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    And no let up in MTs forecasts. Miserable weather.

    It was a classical Irish autumn really


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Just been out for turf ( ocean north facing gable end) and it is shake, rattle and roll out there ... fierce bitter gusts and huge white rollers.... magnificent majestic sight,


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 mrsnrub2.0


    I thought it was going to get a bit milder?

    Chilly enough in Dublin today.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    It was actually nice enough in Dublin today. Bit of sun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    It was actually nice enough in Dublin today. Bit of sun.

    It was good up to now... there's a prolonged shower in Dublin 9 which hasn't stopped for the last hour and a half.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Dunsany now has a rain total of 142.2mm up to yesterday, that's within reach of November 2015 which had 144.3mm. If we manage to beat that, it would make this November the wettest November since 2009.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    A benign end to November and to Autumn 2018 here today. Dry with good sunny spells earlier and a clear sky now as darkness sets in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,492 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Alright end to an otherwise best forgotten November weather wise in Dublin, good riddance. Plenty of rain majority of the time. Autumn overall was ok as September was fine and October was excellent. Will post some Autumn stats when I get back from New York later next week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    September: Pretty good, especially Storm Ali
    October: Best month of the season
    November: Atrocious. Not much sun nor frost. Not even a decent northwesterly. Yuck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    This time last year,I had all ready seen snow on the ground twice during November


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    178mm of rain in Castlebar for November, a low of 0.3C and a high of 14.2C.

    Autumn overall had 486.9mm of rain and it rained 66/91 days, a low of 0.3C and a high of 20.6C, a max gust of 118.7 km/hr.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Xenji wrote: »
    178mm of rain in Castlebar for November, a low of 0.3C and a high of 14.2C.

    Autumn overall had 486.9mm of rain and it rained 66/91 days, a low of 0.3C and a high of 20.6C, a max gust of 118.7 km/hr.

    Yeah, but is the South Easts Soil Moisture deficit gone yet? ;-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,722 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    We needed all the rain that fell in November here in the south east. Ground conditions are still good.
    Wells have recovered, so it was a good end to autumn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    Tuam Co galway 02/12/18 16.34 temperature 10°C
    4WgKzw4.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,492 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    In summary,

    September - A fairly mild and mixed month. Likely to be on the relatively wetter than average side but no big deviation.
    October - Settled and fairly mild again with no big deviation from average. Lot of quiet weather.
    November - Very wet, mild and stormy. Plenty of gales and rain.

    To start this post off, a review of my Autumn 2018 forecast.

    Autumn 2018 overall was a relatively cool season largely due to October and the cold end to that month. It was the coldest Autumn since 2012 though that is not saying much as Autumn has been a mild season lately - and for much of the past few decades too. It was dry for most largely again down to October though November's rain more than compensated for some to make it a fairly wet Autumn. November was the wettest in the south and east of Ireland since 2009.

    Both September and especially October were colder than I anticipated though in fairness, I did say no significant deviation from average either way. November was mild and I forecasted it to be mild.

    Both September and October were on the drier than average side though September was wet for some. I forecasted September to be fairly wet and October to be dry with a lot of quiet weather. The October prediction verified perfectly whilst September could have been better but for a long range forecast, I think it did well. November was forecast to be very wet and stormy. Whilst it may not have been as wet as I anticipated going by my forecast, it still was a very wet month in parts of the south and east of the country so I think that did ok.

    Overall, I think I'll give my Autumn 2018 forecast a 7/10. I'm very happy with it especially for the settled October prediction and November.

    Autumn 2018 records for synoptic stations:

    Maximum: 25.1c at Phoenix Park on September 2nd
    Minimum: -5.0c at Mt. Dillon on November 2nd
    Wettest day: 34.1mm at Valentia Observatory on November 27th

    How do these temperature records look in the historical record back to 1986? See the graph below.

    HOvtUYj.png

    2018 stands just about in the middle with not a particularly low or high min/max.

    Data comes from Met Éireann.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17


    Tuam Co galway 09/12/18 14.45 temperature 8°C
    NRAHEcg.jpg


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