Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Graces7

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

South to southeast winds will reach mean speed at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 13:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 04:00


Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan

South to southeast winds will reach mean speeds at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 19:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 0900

Just waking to this. Ah well... hoping still to get across once more before Christmas...if not, ok.

sryanbruen

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

MidMan25

Wet in the west of UK therefore wet for us too...

derekon

MidMan25 wrote: »

Wet in the west of UK therefore wet for us too...

Yippee!! More wind & rain after 5 weeks of it. Anyone driven demented yet?!!!!

D

Gonzo

derekon wrote: »

Yippee!! More wind & rain after 5 weeks of it. Anyone driven demented yet?!!!!

D

another 8 days of windy wet muck to go, There is a chance things should dry out from Christmas day. Currently it's looking like there could be a dry and mild run between Stephens Day and New Year's Day, there would still be potential for some night time frosts if sky's are clear enough.

No real cold over the next 2 weeks, hopefully some blocking will start to show in the charts around New Year's Day.

SleetAndSnow

This is a good test for my Christmas decorations anyway. Make sure they are pinned down alright!

Little snowy old me

sryanbruen wrote: »

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

sryanbruen

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

Remember this is a long range outlook so unreliable. The so-called earlier bullish talk you speak of was mainly for February which is the month I highlighted for cold in my forecast.... which is a long way off at this rate. I don't see much negatives from that UK Met Office outlook anyway, they're covering all possibilities as usual - mainly because it's a long range outlook.

jamo2oo9

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

I wouldn't write this winter off yet. Especially considering we're 17 days into the winter season... Plenty of time left for some cold to develop at some point. Some are suggesting a cold run in mid-January since we're expecting a SSW by New Years.

Reversal

Is that not the most positive and bullish UKMO long range outlook yet?

Even in the lead up the last March the language wasn't that bullish at that range.

Artane2002

Reversal wrote: »

Is that not the most positive and bullish UKMO long range outlook yet?

Even in the lead up the last March the language wasn't that bullish at that range.

It doesn't sound quite as bullish as yesterday's but it's probably to stop the media from making up nonsense rather than less confidence. Watching people on other forums throwing their toys out of the pram over this update does make me feel a bit pessimistic even though I shouldn't be feeling this way.

Reversal

Artane2002 wrote: »

It doesn't sound quite as bullish as yesterday's but it's probably to stop the media from making up nonsense rather than less confidence. Watching people on other forums throwing their toys out of the pram over this update does make me feel a bit pessimistic even though I shouldn't be feeling this way.

It doesn't mention the word snow. But I actually think specifying an easterly airflow with showers along the East coast shows more confidence in a pattern rather than just saying colder with some snow.

sdanseo

Reversal wrote: »

It doesn't mention the word snow. But I actually think specifying an easterly airflow with showers along the East coast shows more confidence in a pattern rather than just saying colder with some snow.

Yes it does. It also suggests that Atlantic weather will "stay out in the Atlantic" and that "wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts".

If the cold comes far enough west, that means our east coast too.

In other words, cold air from the east and the Atlantic weather blocked out. Perfect.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Clonmel1000

It was 14 degrees on Saturday about 4 degrees less than an average summers day. Saying it’s going to cool down is hardly earth shattering.

Gonzo

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

It was 14 degrees on Saturday about 4 degrees less than an average summers day. Saying it’s going to cool down is hardly earth shattering.

Tonight Ireland is the warmest country in Europe overall with temperatures of 12-13C nationwide. Right now the only places that are as warm as Ireland are the extreme southern fringes of Spain, north-west corner of France, south-west UK, Sicily and the southern fringes of Greece and Cyprus.

icesnowfrost

Gonzo wrote: »

Tonight Ireland is the warmest country in Europe overall with temperatures of 12-13C nationwide. Right now the only places that are as warm as Ireland are the extreme southern fringes of Spain, north-west corner of France, south-west UK, Sicily and the southern fringes of Greece and Cyprus.

It’s actually cruel isn’t it. Nothing to get excited about for the next week or two.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

How did you get any of that from the met office long term forecast?

Anything that causes a slow down of Atlantic systems affects us as well as them.

KingdomRushed

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

How did you get any of that from the met office long term forecast?

Anything that causes a slow down of Atlantic systems affects us as well as them.

Not necessarily. In many winters it has meant stalling frontal rain over Ireland with snow in England. In fact through the early noughties I’d say the ratio was 5 snow events in UK to each 1 in Ireland.

Franz Von Peppercorn

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Not necessarily. In many winters it has meant stalling frontal rain over Ireland with snow in England. In fact through the early noughties I’d say the ratio was 5 snow events in UK to each 1 in Ireland.

We had something like that last week but it wasn’t a very big block over the U.K. and was blown away. What the Met office is signalling is much fewer Atlantic systems or none coming our way.

Hooter23

Not much weather in the next week or two...but im sure it will make up for it once it really starts

Strangegravy

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

One month later....

Captain Snow

Will it be a white Christmas? - The Weather Studio

Lucreto

Strangegravy wrote: »

One month later....

We can only hope.

I have nightmares of Europe and North America in the freezer and Ireland green.

sryanbruen

Captain Snow wrote: »

Will it be a white Christmas?

No, it won't be. At best, it will be a benign Christmas with settled conditions and a frost in some spots during the morning. I'd certainly take that given what we have had to stomach over the years.

Gonzo

I am not surprised that people are feeling somewhat down about our weather right now. 2 months of relentless Atlantic wind and rain is enough to dampen anyone's spirit.

It's also easy to think that as we are under a raging Atlantic since November 1st, that this is how things will pan out for the remainder of winter.

However, what we are all hoping/wishing for this Winter, is that the Sudden stratospheric warming occurs high up us. This is basically a massive rise in temperature well above us in the Stratosphere, over the course of 10 days or so.

This usually causes the jet stream/zonal winds to flip direction within a few weeks of the stratospheric warming event. When this happens it can cause easterly sourced winds all the way from Siberia across Europe and stretching well out in the Atlantic, sometimes even reaching Canada, with extensive blocking to our north.

This is what we are hoping will happen later in January and into February. There isn't a 100% guarantee that this will happen the way we want it, but I remaining hopeful that the models are correct and that it may be game on for some cold and snow in about 4-5 weeks time. Even if we just get 1 week of an easterly between January and end of February, then that is good enough for me.

Billcarson

Anything before the new yr was always going to be a bonus.jan should hopefully be fascinating waiting for the effects of the ssw.it was fascinating last feb watching things unfold. So perhaps around mid Jan is when any cold spell will begin to strike. Although there are no guarantees but we should be very hopeful

Reversal

UKMO update good news for anyone hoping for an Easterly;

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:
Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

Updated: 01:26 on Tue 18 Dec 2018 GMT

km79

sryanbruen wrote: »

No, it won't be. At best, it will be a benign Christmas with settled conditions and a frost in some spots during the morning. I'd certainly take that given what we have had to stomach over the years.

Heavenly

MJohnston

Reversal wrote: »

UKMO update good news for anyone hoping for an Easterly;

Already posted above

Supercell

Just a few dry not so windy days would do me at this stage, had enough of the endless rain and wind this month and last