Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

  • 19-08-2018 10:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    I think the time has come for this, after a pretty fantastic Summer (hopefully more left in the tank) I'm sure thoughts are starting to turn towards winter for some. Autumn still to come too of course.

    Post your thoughts/predictions/ideas on the coming Winter season here.


    As a side note, I will be abroad for the season- so expect a snowy cold one... ;)


«134567144

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Ayyyyyyyy, I was waiting for this. Wondering when it was gonna start.

    Well to start it off, we have a stonker of an ECM seasonal model update for August! Plenty of easterly and northerly incursions for October, November, January and February on it! I can almost smell the snow now. February looks exceptionally blocked.

    It better not be snowy for my birthday the one time I'm away when I'm off to New York!

    Bank these ECM charts please.

    WlsuFKk.png

    xmApS9n.png

    yK1ZOji.png

    f0IzT94.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    This is my favourite thread of the year. I will be refreshing the page every hour usually from September onwards waiting for updates.

    Looking forward to seeing what this year will hold for us. I would be going for a mild wet winter like in 2011 after the previous years snowfall but the way the weather has been this year anything could happen.

    I do hope for cold, lots of frost and of course snow but not as much as February that was extreme even for me. Climbing out a window to clear the porch door was a new one for me.

    sryanbruen having his hands in all the pies with the sunspot and Enso threads is in a great position to guide us through the season. I look forward for his prediction for the season once we get the through the Autumn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    I'd say the best shot for any severe cold/snow would be in January. That's all I have to say for now :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,759 ✭✭✭ Calibos


    Might 2018 be another 'Double Barrell' Snow year like 2010?

    (Month of Snow & Ice in January 2010 and again in December 2010)

    I mean, its already a year that will be long remembered on these shores as being a year with a nearly a month long series of snow events, one being 1982 level then to be followed only 2 months later by my best Lightning Show since 1985 and followed in short order by a Summer to rival 1995!!

    I'm not a fan of Wind events so I hope Autumn 2018 is benign but roll on a White Christmas to cap off a year of incredible weather in Ireland! To have any one of those events in a given year in Ireland is notable, to have all three is incredible. Imagine that. ireland had distinct seasons this year!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    We had no spring. Winter to summer : )


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    It's the most wonderful time of the year.... :)

    I love seeing this thread every year. Last year's was epic! For obvious reasons. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Danno wrote: »
    What do you see are the issues? And how are they going to play out?

    Replying to this here Danno as it's the Winter thread after all. First, let's look at the current state of the north Atlantic. This is the latest global sea surface temperature anomaly from NOAA for 16 August 2018. I have divided the North Atlantic into three because this is how we see if the profile is favourable to negative NAO which is the key to cold and snow in our country - though there can be cold and snowy months with positive NAO such as January 1984 but those kind of months are few and far between. The North Atlantic is in a positive NAO state with bands of cold-warm-average. In May, this was cold generally though warm over to the eastern seaboard of America and the cold anomalies were in the shape of a horseshoe which led to the hot Summer as it promoted blocking over Scandinavia and from the Azores to us, 1976 featured a very similar profile. This is a clear sign of cold AMO. However, since May, the tropical Atlantic has warmed up significantly but still only average by this stage of August and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner - usually mid September - so expect some hurricanes to form if the Atlantic continues to warm up and vertical wind shear dies down. If an El Nino does take off, do not expect this to happen as vertical wind shear continues to increase with El Nino which in turn leads to a decrease in hurricanes.

    An active Atlantic hurricane season is one of the things we look at for Winter as it dumps a lot of warm water in the North Atlantic Ocean which can then be advected into the North Pole and promote northern blocking. 2010 was an active hurricane season. 1995 was an active hurricane season. 1887 was an active hurricane season. These are three examples of years that had active hurricane seasons and were followed by cold winters. However, it's not impossible to receive a cold Winter with an inactive hurricane season, 2009 was such an example and was followed of course by 2009-10. 2009-10 was an a moderate El Nino Modoki and as a result had increased vertical wind shear which led to the inactive hurricane season but as it was El Nino Modoki, we had a cold Winter. El Nino Modoki is very good for cold Winters in the UK and Ireland! The El Nino which is forecast by the models and agencies this year is a modoki and I expect it to be a modoki but there is uncertainty on if it will reach El Nino threshold which is 0.5c or more above average. 1990-91 was an El Nino Modoki but did not reach the threshold though it was a cold Winter with a notable cold and snowy spell in early February 1991. Anyway, I'm going off on a bit of a tangent, thought you'd might like that extra info with this post.

    Another thing I'd like to point out is the Norwegian Sea - notice the significantly warmer than average SSTs there. Very similar to last year! Now look at the 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for 2017-18, there was plenty of northern blocking there which we theorised last year there to be as a result of the state of the Norwegian Sea, similar to come this year?

    7hM5Tbh.gif

    zd9xONC.png

    The SST profile in the Atlantic we want to see is one like this from 14 December 2009, bands of warm-cold-warm. What is the least favourable for a negative NAO in our current SST profile is the cold anomalies to the south of Greenland, we would want to see them disappear by Winter time and not to mention, the warm anomalies off the coast of America. They are two problems with the current state of the North Atlantic which are not favourable for negative NAO especially with a more powerful Polar Vortex as Winter gives. Things can change like they have since May as the Atlantic is more favourable now than it was in May but it's getting kind of late especially as it takes quite a bit of time for the temperatures in the North Atlantic to change unlike say the Irish Sea or the North Sea. Nevertheless, in spite of 1976 being similar to 2018 in terms of the Atlantic SST profile, 1976-77 was a cold Winter with a cold December and January but mild February.

    The NAO forecast from May was for positive NAO in Winter 2018-19 using the UK Met Office's methodology but don't think this is the be all because the Atlantic was in a positive NAO state in May 2009 which led to the UKMO forecasting a mild Winter for 2009-10 - see SST chart below for May 21st 2009.

    ydxZV6m.gif

    The Atlantic SST profile was in a big mess in May 2009. It didn't know what it wanted to do.

    xoPoCM4.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    ooh this thread, the excitement has started!! I racked up over 600 posts on my new account made in Feb (transfer from another) from the winter thread alone!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    ooh this thread, the excitement has started!! I racked up over 600 posts on my new account made in Feb (transfer from another) from the winter thread alone!

    Username checks out! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Some interest lies in over Russia perhaps on the GFS 12z :). Early to be seeing a Siberian High appear!

    https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/1031587354606223361

    September 2009 featured similar, just not as early as the above.

    https://twitter.com/BruenSryan/status/1031595655062593536

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Hopefully the Siberian high works in our favour, sometimes as you say Sryan, it can be our enemy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,787 ✭✭✭✭ Dónal




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,727 ✭✭✭ White Clover


    Would that Siberian high mean settled/fine weather for us ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Sycamore Tree


    Will it be snowing in Galway at 3:25pm on January 11th?


  • Registered Users Posts: 448 ✭✭ Tickityboo


    Will it be snowing in Galway at 3:25pm on January 11th?

    Yeah I'd say so!! Get the bread in!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    Tickityboo wrote: »
    Yeah I'd say so!! Get the bread in!

    I'm stockpiling Brennan's Bread as we speak....


  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭ ace_irl


    Loughc wrote: »
    I'm stockpiling Brennan's Bread as we speak....

    For the love of god, don't forget the tayto crisps. When the power goes, crisp sambos will be all we have.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Sycamore Tree


    You guys have me freaked out...is it too early for a red warning? Or a bread warning?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,629 ✭✭✭ Elmer Blooker


    .... showers turning wintry on northern hills at the weekend!

    ECM1-96.GIF?21-12


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,513 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Loughc


    You guys have me freaked out...is it too early for a red warning? Or a bread warning?

    All seriously those snow storms back in Feb/March was great craic looking back now...


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Would that Siberian high mean settled/fine weather for us ?

    The main point I was getting at (considering this is the Winter thread after all) was that it's very early to be seeing a Siberian High on European charts and some notable harsh Winters have been recorded with a Siberian High appearing this early such as 1946 and 2009 the example I gave (although they featured two very different Septembers :P, 1946 was very wet and cool with a harvest emergency whilst 2009 was a huge relief with very dry and pleasant conditions following one of the wettest Summers on record). It's certainly something to watch.

    Whilst that itself might not be a clear sign of settled weather for Ireland, the chart from the model shows a blocking area of high pressure over top of the country at the end of August into the start of September. This continues to be the case on the latest models but exact temperatures, high pressure alignment etc are to be revealed. That chart I showed would suggest low 20 temperatures widely with fairly low humidity and good sunshine. September 2009 featured a very similar chart by the way when it became very sunny for around 5-6 days especially in the west. So there might be some good news for you if you want settled weather. We'll be keeping an eye on the situation in the model discussion threads.

    In terms of the Winter discussion today, I'll be giving a solar activity special.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    To get us in the mood:



    If we do get a severe cold snap this winter, I honestly hope it is early in the season. While the spell early last March was acceptable, it occurred too late in the year. Either way, I hope this year is 'the one' for record breaking storminess. It will be such a pleasure to experience after this long long, endless Summer.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    To get us in the mood:



    If we do get a severe cold snap this winter, I honestly hope it is early in the season. While the spell early last March was acceptable, it occurred too late in the year. Either way, I hope this year is 'the one' for record breaking storminess. It will be such a pleasure to experience after this long long, endless Summer.

    January hopefully, if it happens during the Christmas rush like in 2010 I would probably go out of business. The hot weather this summer has killed my sales. Perfect selling weather is dull humid conditions during the summer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    So.... I gave away in the above post that today's discussion post in regards to Winter is going to be about solar activity which will be a huge talking point this year because as of recently, it has plunged into minimal levels with more than 85% of the last 50 days being spotless on the sun. When spotless days occur this frequently, it's a sign you're in solar minimum. Solar minimum is a transitional period of time from one solar cycle to another and is when solar activity is at its minimal point. As briefly stated, majority of days during solar minimum are spotless on the sun. Solar cycles usually last between 11-12 years of occurrence and solar cycle 24 began in December 2008 which is expected to end here in the second half of 2018 by projections and predictions. This means, solar cycle 24 would be only 10 years long so would be a shorter solar cycle than the duration of a normal solar cycle. This is interesting because solar cycle 24 has already been so strange without even considering its duration. Solar maximum was the weakest and solar minimum of 23 into 24 was the deepest since the 19th century which was when the little ice age ended. This solar minimum of 24 into 25 is expected to be even deeper and the theory is that just before solar minimum, during solar minimum or just after solar minimum, there are increased chances of northern blocking over the Arctic Circle to go in favour of harsher Winters i.e. colder and snowier, for Europe. This is less the case in other continents such as North America where solar maximum is the most favourable for colder winters there. July 2018's mean sunspot number was the lowest since August 2009 and August 2018's mean sunspot number is expected to be similar here. You can see the monthly sunspot numbers on my graph below from January 2006 to July 2018 along with the 13-month running average (I previously shared this graph in the solar activity thread but I'll repost it here because it's appropriate to the discussion in hand). As you can see, the 13-month running average has gone below a mean sunspot number of 20 and July 2018's SSN was just abouts above zero.

    RNt5adJ.png

    The first graph here shows the correlation with increased chances of negative NAO with low solar activity. Notice 2009-10 particularly standing out.

    VRTOsHj.png

    There isn't correlation between the Central England Temperature and solar activity meanwhile as shown by the graph below:

    Kq1MeID.png

    All of this just goes to show that low solar activity don't mean it's gonna be a cold Winter but there are increased chances given the increased chances of northern blocking to occur on the European side of the Arctic Circle.

    I'd like to give another interesting point that is somewhat relatable to solar activity and that's the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which if you do not know is a system of currents in the North Atlantic Ocean which includes the infamous Gulf Stream. From 2009 to 2011, the Gulf Stream was the most south in decades and its speed was very slow which allowed for some unusually cold weather take place through the year of 2010 including the coldest December on record. Scientists predict 2020 to 2022 to fare similar to the period in question so if their predictions are correct, watch out for the possibility of some harsh Winters to come and this combined with a deep solar minimum..... oh oh oh.... good luck Ireland, good luck!

    This paper goes in-depth about the gulf stream decline from 2009 to 2011 and possibilities for the future: http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~tezer/PAPERS/2015_GPC_AMOC_SL.pdf

    Here's a graph of AMOC data and you can see the decline in 2010 clearly - also early 2013 interestingly enough!

    bnekAIk.jpg

    Data comes from SILSO and NOAA.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    I remember this post from last winter:" Have you ever looked out the window at snow and suddenly got a craving for bread"
    There is always an sound explanation for hysteria. This poster has wisdom!

    As regards this winter, the Liffey will freeze and robins will be knocking at the door to come inside.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Sycamore Tree


    Lucreto wrote: »
    January hopefully, if it happens during the Christmas rush like in 2010 I would probably go out of business. The hot weather this summer has killed my sales. Perfect selling weather is dull humid conditions during the summer.

    Do you mind me asking what you sell Lucreto?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    To get us in the mood:

    If we do get a severe cold snap this winter, I honestly hope it is early in the season. While the spell early last March was acceptable, it occurred too late in the year. Either way, I hope this year is 'the one' for record breaking storminess. It will be such a pleasure to experience after this long long, endless Summer.

    This should help even more :D

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    To get us in the mood:



    If we do get a severe cold snap this winter, I honestly hope it is early in the season. While the spell early last March was acceptable, it occurred too late in the year. Either way, I hope this year is 'the one' for record breaking storminess. It will be such a pleasure to experience after this long long, endless Summer.

    Totally agree. You cannot beat snow before Christmas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    Do you mind me asking what you sell Lucreto?

    It's a gift shop.

    Warm dull rainy days I do better. Need to get the kids out of the house they go shopping. When it's sunny they go to the beach instead.

    The more crappy the summer my business does better.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,652 ✭✭✭ screamer


    It's too soon for my Spidey senses to know how the winter will be, maybe by the end of august I'll have some clue.
    I knew last year that we were in for a cold winter..... But what we got was epic if a bit boring after days of snow....


Advertisement