Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Franz Von Peppercorn

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Met Éireann going for 11-13 degrees Christmas Day. Not exactly what was being predicted here for the last while.

Predicted based on the then charts which have subsequently changed.

Rebelbrowser

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Predicted based on the then charts which have subsequently changed.

Indeed. In fact, not so much predicted, more like stated factually what the then charts then showed - without saying at all that they would definitely verify, quite the opposite.

Birdnuts

In my experience Christmas day is probably the least likely day during the winter proper to see falling snow in this country - I can remember a few flurries in 2001 but thats about it.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1076412569856946177?s=21

Billcarson

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1076412569856946177?s=21

Depressing but at least mostly dry.

Billcarson

Birdnuts wrote: »

In my experience Christmas day is probably the least likely day during the winter proper to see falling snow in this country - I can remember a few flurries in 2001 but thats about it.

2004

Franz Von Peppercorn

There’s been more than usual in the 2000s in fact. I think 2009 for some. 2010 saw lying snow everywhere.

km79

Mild and dry you say
That’ll do pig
That’ll do

Xenji

I think since 1961 snowfall has been recorded on 17 Christmas days at official stations.

sryanbruen

Xenji wrote: »

I think since 1961 snowfall has been recorded on 17 Christmas days at official stations.

I wrote this previously on my site using UK Met Office and Met Éireann data:

In weather folklore and the Gaelic calendar, November sets the scene for Winter. As a result, Christmas Day falls within the middle of the Winter season which is a time when people would expect Winter to be well in place. You'd open the curtains on Christmas morning and find deep snow cover in your region. However, this is all false meteorologically and astronomically. Meteorologically, Winter starts on December 1st and ends on February 28th/29th. Astronomically, Winter starts around December 21st and ends around March 20th. Therefore, Christmas Day is near the beginning of the Winter. This is the least likely part of the Winter to record snow but people expect it to be freezing cold and snowy then gradually get warmer after. This is just not the case in reality. Anyway, I just wanted to bust those myths you hear constantly every year.

In the UK and Ireland, a White Christmas is considered when one single snowflake falls somewhere in either country during the 24-hour period of December 25th. This is in stark contrast to what we usually associate a White Christmas with.

In the UK, a White Christmas typically occurs every 1.42 years on average including 38 times in the last 54 years up to 2018. However, keep in mind that there'd be a lot of variation across the country during these Christmasses so each place would have a different return period whilst the 1.42 years figure refers to the UK as a whole. Widespread lying snow on the ground at 9 a.m. on Christmas Day is far rarer and exceptionally so. This kind of White Christmas (which is the definition people refer to a White Christmas as) has happened only 4 times in the last 51 years up to 2018 which gives an average of every 12.75 years.

In Ireland, a White Christmas typically occurs every 3.56 years on average including 16 times in the last 57 years (1961, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1980, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2010) up to 2018 at a least one of the synoptic stations. Like the UK, there is lots of variation from year to year and not every place has the same return period of a White Christmas. 9 of these years (1964, 1970, 1980, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2010) had snow lying on the ground at 9 a.m. on Christmas Day. The maximum snow depth recorded on Christmas Day was 27cm at Casement Aerodrome, Co. Dublin on Christmas Day 2010. Dublin Airport as an Irish station example had 12 White Christmasses out of 77 years (1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000 and 2004) up to 2018 which means the station has a White Christmas every 6.42 years on average. Notice the 14 year gap from 1970 to 1984 without a White Christmas at the station. As a comparison, it was every 5.90 years up to 2011 showing how absent a White Christmas has been at the station since 2010. 2010 was not considered a White Christmas because no snow fell at Dublin Airport but the station had a snowfall depth of 20cm on the day and this was the only Christmas Day with snow lying on the ground at 9 a.m. at the station since 1941.

Billcarson

I think the period 1995-2010 had it's fair share of it being seasonal around the Xmas period be that frosty weather or some snow about. Yrs that spring to mind 1995 ( frosty cold spell around xmas), 1996 a less cold version of the yr before, snow on the ground newyrs dsy 97, think there was some cold weather around Xmas 97, Xmas period 2000 probably my fav , very seasonal between Xmas day and new yrs with frost and snow. 2001 some cold weather about aswell, 2004 had some heavy snow showers on the day itself which settled in places. 2005 we had a brief easterly with some snow and harsh frosts a few days before the new yr. Of course we had 2009 and 2010
Although as great as Dec 2010 was as regards Xmas week it was all over on the 26th which for me takes some of the sheen off itit and why I prefer the Xmas period of 2000.

Since 2010 our Xmas periods have become much milder overall. The only chilly one that springs to mind was 2014 which had some decent frosts before the new yr.

Harry Palmr

Bright and sunny if a bit cold in the shadows. I'll take that all winter

esposito

Billcarson wrote: »

think there was some cold weather around Xmas 97,

Sorry have to correct you on that one. Xmas 1997 was an awful stormy mild period. Hated it and I was only 10!

Billcarson

esposito wrote: »

Billcarson wrote: »

think there was some cold weather around Xmas 97,

Sorry have to correct you on that one. Xmas 1997 was an awful stormy mild period. Hated it and I was only 10!

Thought that was more around the start of the period. If I remember rightly the days leading up to Xmas were mild and very wet.

Cork Boy 53

esposito wrote: »

Sorry have to correct you on that one. Xmas 1997 was an awful stormy mild period. Hated it and I was only 10!

Yes this is true. I remember there were extremely strong winds on Christmas Eve 1997 which left thousands of homes and businesses without electricity for up to a week. Certainly no cold snowy wintry weather over the Christmas period that year.

Little snowy old me

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Yes this is true. I remember there were extremely strong winds on Christmas Eve 1997 which left thousands of homes and businesses without electricity for up to a week. Certainly no cold snowy wintry weather over the Christmas period that year.

Likely getting confused with 1995?

Billcarson

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

esposito wrote: »

Sorry have to correct you on that one. Xmas 1997 was an awful stormy mild period. Hated it and I was only 10!

Yes this is true. I remember there were extremely strong winds on Christmas Eve 1997 which left thousands of homes and businesses without electricity for up to a week. Certainly no cold snowy wintry weather over the Christmas period that year.

Yes you are right after looking at the archive charts. For some reason I thought that big Xmas eve storm was in 98.

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes you are right after looking at the archive charts. For some reason I thought that big Xmas eve storm was in 98.

The St. Stephen's Day storm was in 1998.

Cork Boy 53

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Likely getting confused with 1995?

No confusion on my part bud. It was definitely 1997. No electricity supply in my area between Christmas Eve and New Year`s Eve that year due to windstorm damage.

Defaulter1831

If you're looking for a perfect winter's day to farm, shop, walk, run, cycle well today is as good as it gets. A lovely calm, sunny 6-8C day. The brightness is great for SAD sufferers or those who don't enjoy the Christmas period sue to loss of loved ones etc.

Meteorite58

Been a grand day for getting the last bit of shopping and doing a few outside jobs, brighter earlier and clouded over since about 14.00.

9.8C atm from a high of 11.2C, Calm

Tonights rain showing up on the radar off the SW coast

m17

Tuam Co galway 22/12/18 12.45 temperature 7°C

Captain Snow

Grand stretch in the evening lads...……..:pac:

Donegal Storm

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes you are right after looking at the archive charts. For some reason I thought that big Xmas eve storm was in 98.

The were plenty of hail and snow showers in 1998 after the Stephens Day storm, might be what you're thinking of. Remember it well as we had no electricity until around the 30th and the lights went again right before New Years! Was a really cold and windy week

Kutebride

Lovely bright day Meath.
Beautiful moon now.

Gonzo

wet night here in Dunshaughlin. Yesterday I went to Kilkenny City for a Christmas celebration and experienced some extremely heavy rain on the way there, the M9 had sheets of water falling on it.

Slightly off topic but it was my first time ever to kilkenny City and really liked it, an absolutely beautiful little city, can't believe it's taken me over 40 years to finally visit it!.

Meteorite58

Gonzo wrote: »

wet night here in Dunshaughlin. Yesterday I went to Kilkenny City for a Christmas celebration and experienced some extremely heavy rain on the way there, the M9 had sheets of water falling on it.

Slightly off topic but it was my first time ever to kilkenny City and really liked it, an absolutely beautiful little city, can't believe it's taken me over 40 years to finally visit it!.

Very wet tonight here near Tralee , 7.4mm already , wasn't expecting so much.

Been to Kilkenny a few times and liked it , really enjoyed visiting Rothe house http://rothehouse.com/ , don't know if you have been Gonzo but well worth a visit .

Calibos

Call me a party pooper but I love a wet Saturday night in the AM like tonight. I live on the walking route home for 3 of the biggest most popular pubs/clubs in the town and the rain keeps people moving rather than stopping to Shout at the top of their voices at each other or act the maggot chat right under my effing window!!

pad199207

Very wet night here now with moderate rain. 6mm

typhoony

Anyone here old enough to remember the Bartlett winters of the 90's and early 00's then the charts will have a familiar look.