Cheltenham 2018 - Day 1

WickIow Brave

I don't think it will be bottomless. If you look on Turftrax, most of the old course is 'Soft'. My guess is the going will officially be 'Soft', which isn't that much worse than the usual yielding Cheltenham ground. I don't think results will be all that much different. Thursday and Friday could be a different story depending on the weather.

RivetingRoger

Heavier it gets yala enki will come into it at a big price

Nulty

It'll be soft enough

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

Ultima

Vintage Clouds looks a nice bet at 14/1 considering the likely ground. He's 6lbs higher than last year but put up plenty bigger performances this year and has improved. His form on Heavy ground is good without being brilliant 2422222. He was running a good race in this last year before falling 2 out. He looks a bit tapped for toe for the previous 3 furlongs but this ground will be much more suitable and keep everything going that little bit slower.

He doesn't win many but looks solid ew bet.

I looked at him earlier at 20/1 and figured he was a sure thing to place . Went to town came back and he is 14/1 . Great chance , I'll probably wait fir day and hope to get 16/1 5 places .

Slattsy

Claisse will say its better than it is, anyway. You'd need to listen to what the jocks say after they've walked it.

Motivator

Gringo180 wrote: »

Scratch Sharjahs last run surely something was amiss, he was about to run the best novice race of the season before crashing down at the last @Leopardstown if he won that and didnt race until now he would be favourite imo.

The ground kills his chance. Although the won on ****e ground at Gowran it’s a different ballgame at the Festival in a big field.

WickIow Brave

I'd take 'Soft' for the week in a heartbeat. Would be ideal for most nags I'll be punting.

dk6dk6

Paddy power have Buveir Dair Samcro double at 2/1 but will only allow me 80 cent on it, what is the point of putting them specials up. Ridiculous

Fanny Wank

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Paddy power have Buveir Dair Samcro double at 2/1 but will only allow me 80 cent on it, what is the point of putting them specials up. Ridiculous

Wouldn't even classify it as a special. Only 4/6 and 4/5. Just punt Bouvair at 4/6 (you might even get bigger Tuesday) and have the returns on Samcro (again you'll surely get at least 4/5 on Wednesday)

Btw matchbook are commission free on horse racing til after the Cheltenham festival

dk6dk6

Fanny **** wrote: »

Wouldn't even classify it as a special. Only 4/6 and 4/5. Just punt Bouvair at 4/6 (you might even get bigger Tuesday) and have the returns on Samcro (again you'll surely get at least 4/5 on Wednesday)

Btw matchbook are commission free on horse racing til after the Cheltenham festival

Yeah good point but I'm not convinced we'll get 4/5 on Samcro on Wednesday, I think money will be getting poured onto him.

Whiplash85

Shantou Flyer is the bet of the festival in the Ultima. Conditions to suit and interesting jockey booking.

longshotvalue

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Paddy power have Buveir Dair Samcro double at 2/1 but will only allow me 80 cent on it, what is the point of putting them specials up. Ridiculous

That's a terrible price . Better of only putting 80c on it

longshotvalue

There will be s special fot up to 50 on samcro at evens or better . There always is .

kiers47

My tip for the week is for people to not blindly back specials and enhanced doubles without investigating the prices further. I had a look at some of the Paddy power odds boosts last night and they are actually scandalous.
The stand out being enhanced price of Nicky winning the 4 championship races at 66/1. I can't remember exactly but i worked the true price out at about 100/1+

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

Ultima

Vintage Clouds looks a nice bet at 14/1 considering the likely ground. He's 6lbs higher than last year but put up plenty bigger performances this year and has improved. His form on Heavy ground is good without being brilliant 2422222. He was running a good race in this last year before falling 2 out. He looks a bit tapped for toe for the previous 3 furlongs but this ground will be much more suitable and keep everything going that little bit slower.

He doesn't win many but looks solid ew bet.

I looked at him earlier at 20/1 and figured he was a sure thing to place . Went to town came back and he is 14/1 .  Great chance , I'll probably wait fir day and hope to get 16/1 5 places .

I wouldn't be worried about the number of places for him personally. 16/1 would interest me more than 14/1 with 5 places

BoroMan32

And the majority of those firms going 5 places will be 1/5th of the odds a place, also.

Slattsy

Not one Irish horse in the Ultima. Wtf happened there, is that a first??

Motivator

Slattsy wrote: »

Not one Irish horse in the Ultima. Wtf happened there, is that a first??

Irish horses have a shocking record in it, no winner since 2006. Very surprising there’s no Irish horse in it though - surely a first in all the years I’ve been watching the Festival.

Anyone know the last race at the Festival where there were no Irish trained runners?

BoroMan32

There were a couple of years (2012 and 2013) where Dessie Hughes had the only Irish runner in the race.

Father Hernandez

jimjamcos wrote: »

Samcro in Ballymore, Faugheen in Cheekpieces.

Dream double is still alive.

Hear, hear!

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

I wouldn't be worried about the number of places for him personally. 16/1 would interest me more than 14/1 with 5 places

True but horses that act on the ground can be sure fire placers and even worth it at lower prices than i normally bother

dk6dk6

Benie Des Dieux in the market without Apples Jade must be one of the bets of day one.

kiers47

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Benie Des Dieux in the market without Apples Jade must be one of the bets of day one.

La Bague Au Roi should almost certainly be second favorite so I'm not so sure.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

La Bague Au Roi should almost certainly be second favorite so I'm not so sure.

I agree that 100/30 with paddy looks one of the best 3/1 shots you'll likely see this week. I have it in every accum for tuesday

Chesty08

aidankkk wrote: »

I agree that 100/30 with paddy looks one of the best 3/1 shots you'll likely see this week. I have it in every accum for tuesday

Is this La Bague Au Roi w/o Apples Jade? Currently 6/1 w/o on Bet365

kiers47

Chesty08 wrote: »

Is this La Bague Au Roi w/o Apples Jade? Currently 6/1 w/o on Bet365

I'd imagine that is the outright price and not without. If it is without then it must be some clerical error that will certainly not be given.

Slattsy

I'm finding it hard to get an angle on the Ultima.

Minella Daddy was one i was looking at during the week, but again i dont think it wants soft ground.
All the value gone on CSS.

Chesty08

Chesty08 wrote: »

Is this La Bague Au Roi w/o Apples Jade? Currently 6/1 w/o on Bet365

Error on Oddschecker. Went into site & it is 2/1

longshotvalue

Chesty08 wrote: »

Is this La Bague Au Roi w/o Apples Jade? Currently 6/1 w/o on Bet365

That price on OddsCheck is wrong bet365 are only 2/1

Fanny Wank

Oddschecker has completely gone to sh!te