Cheltenham 2018 - Day 1

diomed

Day 1 - Tue 13:30… Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f
Day 1 - Tue 14:10… Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m
Day 1 - Tue 14:50… Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f
Day 1 - Tue 15:30… Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f
Day 1 - Tue 16:10… OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f
Day 1 - Tue 16:50… Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 4m
Day 1 - Tue 17:30… Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4½f

Nulty

Buevair Dair is evens on Betfair for 10 minutes now

Fanny Wank

I think Footpad will be the only one of the shorties I get stuck into for a reasonable sized bet. Hopefully 6/4 on the day

RivetingRoger

Took prices today in shop
7/4 Getabird
5/4 Footpad
4/7 AJ

Now.....come on!!

Fanny Wank

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Took prices today in shop
7/4 Getabird
5/4 Footpad
4/7 AJ

Now.....come on!!

Getabird will be way bigger on the day.

In fact all 3 probably will barring significant non runners

BumperD

Getabird the possible most vulnerable of the 3 for me given his lack of experience, Defo get bigger on the day.

Waiting for the Samcro diverted to supreme due to ground meltdown :pac:

longshotvalue

Looking at heavy ground horses .. Feck it .

Fanny Wank

Looking at the Supreme here. I remember saying re Douvan in 2015 that the year before Vautour was 4/1+ with a similar profile. He won and I remember saying similar re Min 2 years ago

Same has to be said re Getabird, probably between 5/2 and 3/1 but I don't bloody well think he's a Douvan/Vautour. Could he win, of course but not for me

Kalashnikov is 5/1 so I really have to look at Summerville Boy at a double figure price having walloped Kalashnikov in the Tolworth on heavy. Course form too (while he hasn't won there). 10/1 on the machine now, I won't be able to let it go unbacked at that price on the day I reckon

Having written all the above I may well have to have a minimum ew on Western Ryder also @ 40/1+

Gringo180

Fanny **** wrote: »

Looking at the Supreme here. I remember saying re Douvan in 2015 that the year before Vautour was 4/1+ with a similar profile. He won and I remember saying similar re Min 2 years ago

Same has to be said re Getabird, probably between 5/2 and 3/1 but I don't bloody well think he's a Douvan/Vautour. Could he win, of course but not for me

Kalashnikov is 5/1 so I really have to look at Summerville Boy at a double figure price having walloped Kalashnikov in the Tolworth on heavy. Course form too (while he hasn't won there). 10/1 on the machine now, I won't be able to let it go unbacked at that price on the day I reckon

Having written all the above I may well have to have a minimum ew on Western Ryder also @ 40/1+

Didnt Slate House beat Summerville Boy at Chelt? Could run well at a big price.

Fanny Wank

Gringo180 wrote: »

Didnt Slate House beat Summerville Boy at Chelt? Could run well at a big price.

He did in November

Thought Slate House was Ballymore bound but just saw he's only in the Supreme

dk6dk6

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Took prices today in shop
7/4 Getabird
5/4 Footpad
4/7 AJ

Now.....come on!!

I don't understand why anyone would take a price on Getabird today.

Nulty

Backed at various different times
Supreme First Flow
Ultima Snow Falcon
Arkle Petit Mouchoir
Champion Buevair
Mares Verdant Blue without
4 miler Fagan
Close Brothers Tycoon Prince & Ozzie The Oscar

Duc De Genievres NR Supreme

HandsomeBob

Going to be straight forward enough for me opening day especially given the expected weather conditions. AJ, Footpad, BD and Getabird all worthy favs and I won't be veering too far away from them.

Will back Mengli Khan and MTOY each way.

Slattsy

All the favs will be happy with the soft ground anyway. Could be worth a 50c Yankee!

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

All the favs will be happy with the soft ground anyway. Could be worth a 50c Yankee!

I chanced a few accums with some of the favs and (le Bague au Roi w/o Apples 7/2 and faugheen w/o fav at 2/1. )

Le Bague look a decent enough price at 7/2 w/o, she has much better form that Benie Des Dieux and should be clear 2nd fav (seems like lets dance is drifting way out)

Faugheen will cope with the ground better than most of these and to me if he gets out of bed at all is very short to be 2nd at least.

Slattsy

Between 15 and 20mm rain due over the next two days. No chance soft will be in the description.

They should put the festival back a few weeks so my good ground horse ante post bets have a chance.

HandsomeBob

Won't be hearing any Spring horse spoofing anyway.

RivetingRoger

All the samcro to supreme ****e is raging again this morning. Better not!! Time sre Decs?

RivetingRoger

Little to no evidence of significant drifts on douvan, getabird or any of them on PP as of right now. Samcro also not budged

kiers47

I'm open to correction but should be 10am..

dk6dk6

RivetingRoger wrote: »

All the samcro to supreme ****e is raging again this morning. Better not!! Time sre Decs?

Can't wait till we can put this Samcro thing to bed, as I've said all along I'll be shocked if he switches. And if he was switching insiders in the Elliott yard would have it a lot shorter than 14's on betfair by now.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

I'm open to correction but should be 10am..

Actually it might be 12. Can't seem to find a definite on RP or BHA site.

diomed

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

Report Date 11/03/2018 08:48:00
Official Going Soft Heavy in places.
GoingStick 5.7 on Sunday at 07:00

Weather:
Dry overnight.
Rain developing Sunday afternoon and through Monday up to 10mm.
Tuesday and Wednesday mostly dry,
overnight rain in to Thursday up to 9mm,
then a showery outlook through to Friday, temps 11/12C.

Gringo180

diomed wrote: »

http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_maps.html

Report Date 11/03/2018 08:48:00
Official Going Soft Heavy in places.
GoingStick 5.7 on Sunday at 07:00

Weather:
Dry overnight.
Rain developing Sunday afternoon and through Monday up to 10mm.
Tuesday and Wednesday mostly dry,
overnight rain in to Thursday up to 9mm,
then a showery outlook through to Friday, temps 11/12C.

Its going to be a bog

kiers47

Supreme 20
Arke 5
Ultima 18
Champion 13
Mares 9
NH Chase 16
Close Brothers full house 20

Ultima didn't even fill. 6 spaces left and people worried about not getting in.
5 in the arkle is a joke.

jimjamcos

kiers47 wrote:

Ultima didn't even fill. 6 spaces left and people worried about not getting in. 5 in the arkle is a joke.

Where can I find declarations?

WickIow Brave

jimjamcos wrote: »

Where can I find declarations?

@festivalracing

kiers47

jimjamcos wrote: »

Where can I find declarations?

I've only seen numbers. They should be out by 11.

Champion hurdle and the arkle have been re-offered also.

WickIow Brave

Cheekpieces on Faugheen.

WickIow Brave

No Samcro in Supreme.

Yorkhill in Champion Hurdle.

kiers47

Samcro not declared for supreme.

RivetingRoger

Yyyyyyyyeeeessssss

Fanny Wank

WickIow Brave wrote: »

@festivalracing

Fair play to Andy for tweeting it but it's shambolic there's not an official source announcing it online as it happens

RivetingRoger

Min Douvan vvm and vautour all going for champion hurdle according to wpm on racing post...........

WickIow Brave

Fanny **** wrote: »

Fair play to Andy for tweeting it but it's shambolic there's not an official source announcing it online as it happens

Yeah, it's embarrassing we are relying on a guy with a highlighter doing it off his own bat.

jimjamcos

Samcro in Ballymore, Faugheen in Cheekpieces.

Dream double is still alive.

Massimo Tara

Not a single irish horse in the ultima. Madness

Fanny Wank

Serious question here. What price would Getabird be if he wasn't trained by Mullins and wearing the Mr Blobby silks? 4 or 5/1? Bigger even?

It's also not like Ricci has an army of smart novice hurdlers who he's splitting up. And he's a point winner running over 2m. He's a bonkers price and while the Supreme looks a mess/highly competitive with him taking out 30% of the book I think punters absolutely have to be looking for an angle there

RivetingRoger

Getabird hacked up last time out. Ran brilliantly and left MK for dead over the last. That is the reason.....its quite simple

WickIow Brave

Paul Townend on Melon. Yeeeeessssss!!! Bring it home Paul!

Ruby on Faugheen
Patrick on WickIow Brave

No jockey for Yorkhill yet.

Fanny Wank

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Getabird hacked up last time out. Ran brilliantly and left MK for dead over the last. That is the reason.....its quite simple

And his form is so much better than the UK novices to warrant his price how?

We've a Betfair hurdle winner against him, a grade 1 Tolworth winner and a host of others. If anyone thinks Getabird should be sub 2/1 I'm happy to take every bet you ever have from now until I die

Vautour started 7/2 (was bigger in the morning). Douvan was 2/1 or 9/4 (again was probably bigger in the morning). Getabird is a joke price win or lose

Gringo180

Scratch Sharjahs last run surely something was amiss, he was about to run the best novice race of the season before crashing down at the last @Leopardstown if he won that and didnt race until now he would be favourite imo.

Nulty

Weirdest decs morning I can remember

RivetingRoger

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Paul Townend on Melon. Yeeeeessssss!!! Bring it home Paul!

Ruby on Faugheen
Patrick on WickIow Brave

No jockey for Yorkhill yet.

I will take the ride if they stuck. All 14 stone of me!

WickIow Brave

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I will take the ride if they stuck. All 14 stone of me!

Probably David Mullins. Jack Kennedy would suit Yorkhill. I can't think of many else to be able to ride him tbh.

FatRat

With the Ultima so cut up, I'm surprised to still see Shantou Flyer at 25/1 places. Runs on Heavy and, on about the same weights margins, he finished ahead of Coo Star Sivola and O O Seven here 2 months ago (albeit 17l behind Frodon). That was 2m 4f and he was running on towards the end - looked like he might like longer.

Gold Present my most likely winner for it but unsure about how he'll go on the ground under top weight too. Probably no value at the top of the market.

RivetingRoger

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Probably David Mullins. Jack Kennedy would suit Yorkhill. I can't think of many else to be able to ride him tbh.

If Jack was on him i would be delighted as someone who has him backed !

supremenovice

RivetingRoger wrote: »

If Jack was on him i would be delighted as someone who has him backed !

How about Richard Johnson? They Wylies wouldn't mind an English jockey on him

WickIow Brave

supremenovice wrote: »

How about Richard Johnson? They Wylies wouldn't mind an English jockey on him

I wouldn't have Johnson anywhere near him. I can't think of any English jockeys that would suit it. I don't think Wylie cares about the nationality of the rider.

WickIow Brave

Mark Walsh on Any Second Now.

WickIow Brave

David Mullins on Yorkhill.