Cheltenham Preview Nights 2018

ON ZEE BRIDLE

From what I've been told by a couple of people that know of him ruby is a greedy pr!ck and would do anything for a few quid

Trolling
A troll is someone who posts controversial, inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.

Hearsay is not evidence.
What someone told you may or may not be true.

krustydoyle

As the saying goes he'd "follow a crow a mile for a penny"

WickIow Brave

State of the posts on here. Ye are aware of what Ruby Walsh does for a living aren't ye? As in he could fall off a horse and be killed or be seriously injured and unfit to work for the rest of his life with 4 or 5 young kids to look after. Ye must all work for nothing.

thesaturdayman

lads, any chance we can keep it on topic? This is a Chelt preview night thread i.e. what the movers and shakers are from the various nights as opposed to Ruby is a ball ox thread! Think you will find he is one of irelands greatest sports men.

charliegeorge

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/london-racing-club-cheltenham-festival-2018-preview-night-notes/

London Racing Club Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Night Notes

09/03/2018//by Matt Bisogno

It was to a packed house at London's Kensington Forum that a star-studded cast delivered their verdicts on the impending Cheltenham Festival. With no punches pulled, opinions were as strong as they were plentiful. What follows is a summary of the action...

Panel: Lee Mottershead, Racing Post senior correspondent (host); Phil Smith, BHA head of handicapping; Matt Tombs, author Cheltenham Festival Trends guide; Lydia Hislop, freelance writer/broadcaster RUK; and, Luke Tarr, Starsports bookmaker.

Tuesday
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
MT: Getabird may drift from his current price. Not worth the price on form. Stablemate Sharjah is worth a look on quicker ground.

LT: Getabird a horrendous price. 16/1 First Flow could be a bit of value.

LH: Summerville Boy, who beat Kalashnikov, is twice the price; and First Flow quite likely to shorten from his current odds.

PS: Kalashnikov top rated currently on 154, Getabird 152

Arkle Chase
LH: Not touching the race. Footpad a legitimate favourite, but Saint Calvados may be the best bet. (But no bet!)

MT: Petit Mouchoir, just, but reasons for concern, including how warm he gets before some of his races (including at the Festival last year)

LT: No star going in here, hopefully one comes out of it. Big Saint Calvados fan but the price has gone now.

PS: 170, 169, 168 recent Arkle winners' season ending figures. Footpad currently 162, Saint Calvados 160, Petit Mouchoir 157. Which of these can improve to the mid- to high 160's?

CHAMPION HURDLE
PS: Have to be impressed with what Buveur d'Air has done. 169 currently, which is an average Champion Hurdle figure, but he's been coasting around untested, and could get to the mid-170's. Faugheen was 176 a year ago but nothing like that this term. Ran to 167 on first/best run of the season.

MT: Lay Yorkhill for a place. Melon could be the each way play.

LH: Not as good as he was but at the prices Faugheen is one of only two class horses in the race, and he's 6/1.

LT: Buveur d'Air is much the best. Faugheen not an e/w proposition, but win only ("he either wins, or you only do your money once - don't do it twice"). There has been money for Wicklow Brave e/w and without the favourite.

Mares' Hurdle
LH: Benie Des Dieux outstandingly the number one Mullins horse in the race.

Best Backed / other thoughts on Tuesday
LT: Coo Star Sivola strong at around 8/1 for the Ultima. Benie Des Dieux in the Mares' Hurdle, and Jury Duty in the National Hunt Chase have also seen support.

MT: Any Second Now in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase is the best handicap bet of the day.

PS: In the handicaps generally, look for horses that have been running over a different trip, perhaps on different ground, and in chases look for those with a higher hurdle rating than their current chase mark.

**

Wednesday
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
LT: Samcro very short on what he's actually done. Black Op looks a good each way bet.

MT: Speed horses do well in this race. Samcro fits in that context but Black Op is a good option also at a nice price.

PS: Samcro 155 On The Blind Side 153 Black Op 150 Next Destination 150 currently. All four horses are already at the level needed to win an average renewal. Perhaps Black Op is the one at the prices.

LH: On The Blind Side may have worked poorly (if you listen to preview night 'yack'). Duc Des Genievres was closing on Samcro last time and there may not be much between them. Black Op could run well. Vision Des Flos is the horse expected to shorten in the market for this race.

RSA Chase
LT: Solid favourite in Presenting Percy

LH: Presenting Percy an unexciting price but a worthy favourite.

MT: Flogas the key trial. Monalee is a good horse but he's been keen in his races. Al Boum Photo will get Ruby Walsh on top in this and looks a knocking each way bet at 10/1.

PS: A decent race this year which will probably take a 160+ performance to win. Presenting Percy currently top on 158, Monalee 155.

CHAMPION CHASE
PS: Altior 174, Douvan 174, Min 167, Politologue 163, Special Tiara 160. Highly questionable whether Douvan can get close to that mark.

MT: Not worried about the 'bounce' with Altior. He only had a minor wind operation. There are no worries about him and he looks hard to oppose. But the market has this sewn up.

LH: Don't believe Douvan will run. Min a different (better) horse when not leading. Altior did run below his best despite winning in the Arkle last year. Would still back Min at 5/2 (but already backed/advised it at 8/1).

LT: Douvan has no chance of running at the Festival! Altior is the best horse and think he'll win. Charbel 20/1 e/w NRNB interesting (he may run in the Grand Annual).

Cross Country Chase
MT: Cause Of Causes NAP of the week at 3/1

LH: Tiger Roll much the best backed, 9/1 into 5/1.

PS: The Last Samuri is top rated, but Tiger Roll had a very similar 'never in it' prep this year to Cause Of Cause's last year for the same connections. Look at this race as a decent trial for the Grand National.

Your first 30 days for just £1
Other Wednesday thoughts
LH: Look out for either Malaya or Act Of Valour in the Fred Winter (both Paul Nicholls)

**

Thursday
RYANAIR CHASE
MT: 5/1 Douvan NRNB a great bet. Much shorter if he runs, which he probably won't. Waiting Patiently has a right chance if he shows up.

PS: Waiting Patiently 170, Un De Sceaux 167.

LT: Love this race. Don't think Waiting Patiently, Min or Douvan will run. Balko Des Flos is interesting e/w.

LH: Cue Card is still Grade 1 class. Waiting Patiently might be stretched if soft, Yorkhill would be interesting if showing up here. The race baffles me. Wait for the day of race market.

STAYERS' HURDLE
LH: Yanworth is opposable at the price. Sam Spinner should be favourite over Supersundae, and might get an easy lead. Supersundae stamina an unknown rather than a negative, but he's short enough at the prices. The World's End is too big a price if it's a sound surface.

PS: A terrible renewal. Supersundae 164 Sam Spinner 164 Yanworth 163 Unowhatimeanharry 163 The New One 161 La Bague Au Roi. It normally takes a near 170 performance to win. Unowhatimeanharry has run to 161 and is working really well apparently.

MT: Sam Spinner "much the most likely winner". 9/2 a really good bet.

LT: unowhatimeanharry is the wrong price.

Other Thursday action
PS: Look to the novices in the Brown Advisory Plate.

MT: Monalee may switch to the JLT, which would make 7/2 NRNB a good bet.

LH: Mall Dini in the Kim Muir.

**

GOLD CUP
PS: Might Bite 169 but there are lots within three or four pounds of each other. "I think Might Bite is much better than these". Not sure Killultagh Vic would have beaten Edwulf if not falling last time. 8/1 vs 20/1 looks wrong.

MT: Might Bite a great price at 7/2. The value in this race is with the top of the market normally: 15 of the last 17 winners came from the top three in the betting; 16/17 were 8/1 or shorter.

LH: Djakadam is looking to replicate The Fellow's form figures in the race of 2241 and is over-priced (Lydia an infamously big Djakadam fan!). Native River is sold e/w. Not sure Road To Respect will stay and/or like soft ground. Killultagh Vic's jumping is "appalling". Our Duke is the 'now' horse but makes mistakes with his jumping, too.

Triumph Hurdle
MT: Most impressed by Redicean, may challenge for favouritism.

LT: No idea. This is an impossible race.

LH: No strong view. Apple's Shakira looks vulnerable but there are lots of alternatives.

PS: Redicean is 149, but Apple's Shakira 153 with the mares' allowance.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
LH: Thanks to Tony Keenan for pointing out that lots of experience in this race is a good thing. Chef Des Obeaux and Poetic Rhythm, and perhaps Callett Mad, are the sort that win.

PS: Santini 150 but lots on similar ratings.

MT: Demand a price in a race that throws up shocks. Callett Mad a player.

Other Friday action
LH: Expect improvement from Diego Du Charmil in the Grand Annual.

MT: Deal d'Estruval for either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe NRNB. Dortmund Park in the Martin Pipe if quick ground, on which he should improve.

PS: Burning Ambition is top rated in the Foxhunters'.

**

Best Bets
LH: Poetic Rhythm (Albert Bartlett) and/or Diego Du Charmil (Grand Annual)

MT: Sam Spinner in the Stayers' Hurdle

PS: An each way double on Definitly Red in the Gold Cup and Definitly Red in the Grand National (*tongue was in cheek a little here, I suspect).

danganabu

thesaturdayman wrote: »

lads, any chance we can keep it on topic? This is a Chelt preview night thread i.e. what the movers and shakers are from the various nights as opposed to Ruby is a ball ox thread! Think you will find he is one of irelands greatest sports men.

Irish begrudgery is alive and well somethings will never change!

Earendil

WickIow Brave wrote: »

State of the posts on here. Ye are aware of what Ruby Walsh does for a living aren't ye? As in he could fall off a horse and be killed or be seriously injured and unfit to work for the rest of his life with 4 or 5 young kids to look after. Ye must all work for nothing.

Don't know where you are getting this from WB. Few posts taking the piss out of morons who were suggesting "Ruby took a dive" and one perfectly reasoned post by Kauto saying it doesn't look good with a bookie firm and senior jockey so cosy.

danganabu

Earendil wrote: »

Don't know where you are getting this from WB. Few posts taking the piss out of morons who were suggesting "Ruby took a dive" and one perfectly reasoned post by Kauto saying it doesn't look good with a bookie firm and senior jockey so cosy.

Well I certainly dont think its acceptable for someone to call him a prick on a public forum, someone who has probably never spent a minute in his company.

WickIow Brave

Earendil wrote: »

Don't know where you are getting this from WB. Few posts taking the piss out of morons who were suggesting "Ruby took a dive" and one perfectly reasoned post by Kauto saying it doesn't look good with a bookie firm and senior jockey so cosy.

My bad then. I just skimmed through the posts and saw that all Ruby cared about was money. There's a lot of things to dislike about Ruby but considering the job he is in, going after the money and securing his family's future wouldn't be one of them.

dk6dk6

Imagine Footpad, Buveir Dair, Apples Jade and Samcro all win. Half the country will supposedly be waiting on Altior for the accumulator and poor Nico De Boinville's life won't be worth living if the horse gets beat because no matter what happens people need someone to blame so poor old Nico it will be.

stretchaq

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Imagine Footpad, Buveir Dair, Apples Jade and Samcro all win. Half the country will supposedly be waiting on Altior for the accumulator and poor Nico De Boinville's life won't be worth living if the horse gets beat because no matter what happens people need someone to blame so poor old Nico it will be.

Would reckon at least 2 of them bet before I go 3 of first four to be bet

RivetingRoger

Careful slagging Ruby lads
last year himself and Paddy Power arrived to a fellas house who was trolling him.............honest.........there is a video and all like!!

danganabu

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Careful slagging Ruby lads
last year himself and Paddy Power arrived to a fellas house who was trolling him.............honest.........there is a video and all like!!

I find it hilarious that lads that will struggle to stay on the high stool for the week can slag off the greatest jockey of all time, most successfull Cheltenham jockey ever and top jockey 11 out of the last 12 festivals.

Imagine how many races he could have won if he wasnt jumping off

charliegeorge

danganabu wrote: »

I find it hilarious that lads that will struggle to stay on the high stool for the week can slag off the greatest jockey of all time, most successfull Cheltenham jockey ever and top jockey 11 out of the last 12 festivals.

Imagine how many races he could have won if he wasnt jumping off

Myself and a mate were having a few pints one evening chatting about Annie Power and Ruby "jumping off", we were/are both of the opinion that he didn't when some tool butted in saying that he did.

My mate: "Did you ever ride a horse?"
The tool: "No"
My mate: "Well then shut the fup up"

That was the end of that.

Kauto

danganabu wrote: »

I find it hilarious that lads that will struggle to stay on the high stool for the week can slag off the greatest jockey of all time, most successfull Cheltenham jockey ever and top jockey 11 out of the last 12 festivals.

Imagine how many races he could have won if he wasnt jumping off

Brilliant jockey no doubt.

As for slagging him off, he was over the tannoy in powers today talking about the stayers hurdle. He said he would have two of the other Mullins runners way above Pennhill for the race. It's 1/100 that he rides Pennhill FFS. There would be lads in there listening to it taking it seriously 😂

dk6dk6

stretchaq wrote: »

Would reckon at least 2 of them bet before I go 3 of first four to be bet

I'll be shocked if 3/4 of them are beaten

danganabu

Kauto wrote: »

Brilliant jockey no doubt.

As for slagging him off, he was over the tannoy in powers today talking about the stayers hurdle. He said he would have two of the other Mullins runners way above Pennhill for the race. It's 1/100 that he rides Pennhill FFS. There would be lads in there listening to it taking it seriously ��

Ah here lay off the hyperbole, its 4/6 at the most if you were pricing it up, Bacardy's is a very realistic option for him, Penhill hasnt been seen since Punchestown.

All that aside, anyone listening to something like that and betting accordingly doesnt deserve money or sympathy tbh.

Kauto

danganabu wrote: »

Ah here lay off the hyperbole, its 4/6 at the most if you were pricing it up, Bacardy's is a very realistic option for him, Penhill hasnt been seen since Punchestown.

All that aside, anyone listening to something like that and betting accordingly doesnt deserve money or sympathy tbh.

Plenty of dead beats in there do listen to that drivel.
He won't be riding anything else in it. Pennhill has a very good chance in a non vintage year of the race. Has loads of ability and won the novice hurdle impressively last year and is apparently working very well. He has burst blood vessels previously and it's usually first time up is the best time to catch them.

RivetingRoger

Pretty confident ruby will ride Bacardys and as s man with Bacardys backed I hope he does. Massive Ruby fan.

RivetingRoger

Samcro into 6/4fav for supreme. Getabird out to 7/4. (PP prices)

Slattsy

Patrick Mullins talking down Penhill at previews.
As is David Casey. As is Willie. And Ruby now telling punters in his love nest not to back Penhill either.

So how many lengths does Penhill win by?

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Patrick Mullins talking down Penhill at previews.
As is David Casey. As is Willie. And Ruby now telling punters in his love nest not to back Penhill either.

So how many lengths does Penhill win by?

Weird i heard he was flying. My bother has him as nap of the festival wont hear of defeat. Seems to short to me for one that hasn't run this year.

Slattsy

aidankkk wrote: »

Weird i heard he was flying. My bother has him as nap of the festival wont hear of defeat. Seems to short to me for one that hasn't run this year.

I fancy him myself. Obviously would prefer if he had a run.

All the public noises from the Mullins camp stink on this fella, from what I can see.

Motivator

Slattsy wrote: »

I fancy him myself. Obviously would prefer if he had a run.

All the public noises from the Mullins camp stink on this fella, from what I can see.

Nobody will know if he’s fancied or not until the day, his owner hasn’t backed him yet but if he does then he’ll more than half in price.

I don’t care how good the stable are, I can’t see how he can win here on his first start of the season. He’s a seriously good horse, the form of the Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown when he finished second is brilliant but I couldn’t have him on his first start of the season.

kiers47

Motivator wrote: »

Nobody will know if he’s fancied or not until the day, his owner hasn’t backed him yet but if he does then he’ll more than half in price.

I don’t care how good the stable are, I can’t see how he can win here on his first start of the season. He’s a seriously good horse, the form of the Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown when he finished second is brilliant but I couldn’t have him on his first start of the season.

There wasn't a bob on him last year anyway so Tony doesn't always come for them.

Kauto

Slattsy wrote: »

I fancy him myself. Obviously would prefer if he had a run.

All the public noises from the Mullins camp stink on this fella, from what I can see.

That makes you even more confident.
Bloom would want it that way.

HugoMyBoss

Has Gary O Brien been involved in any previews?

RivetingRoger

Is charli parcs out?

dk6dk6

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Samcro into 6/4fav for supreme. Getabird out to 7/4. (PP prices)

Samcro has been 6/4 with paddy power for the past week so he's not into 6/4 at all. Your misleading people when all that's happening is Getabird is drifting like everybody knew he would as he was a ridiculous price.

Earendil

Motivator wrote: »

Nobody will know if he’s fancied or not until the day, his owner hasn’t backed him yet but if he does then he’ll more than half in price.

I don’t care how good the stable are, I can’t see how he can win here on his first start of the season. He’s a seriously good horse, the form of the Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown when he finished second is brilliant but I couldn’t have him on his first start of the season.

Seriously? Christ.
Arctic Fire came after 400 days plus to win at the festival last year.