Cheltenham Preview Nights 2018

Fanny Wank

Preview nights are fine if you just treat them as a bit of laugh. Often they're run for the benefit of a charity or the like

Haven't been at one in years but bookies used to give money away at some (Ivan Yates the main offender). Though I've heard a lot of Powers specials are through your account only - restricted account means no special

Long Shadow

Cheltenham Preview Night at Westmanstown Sports & Conference Centre on 7th March 2018 @ 8pm

Panel: DENIS KIRWAN MC, RUBY WALSH, WARREN GREATRIX, JACK KENNEDY, SEAN FLANAGAN, RACHAEL BLACKMORE, DAVE JENNINGS (Racing Post), ANDY GIBSON (Professional Punter, Racing Analyst & TV Pundit), PADDY POWER (Bookmaker), Conference Call with Willie Mullins.

Tickets €20 including €10 matched bet, a copy Racing Post Cheltenham Preview Book plus Free Finger Food.

A Raffle will be held on the night with a host of fantastic prizes, including a trip for two (2) to the ‘Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018. Tickets available at (01) 8207888 (Mon to Fri, 9am to 5pm) All proceeds in aid of ‘Barretstown’

dk6dk6

Think the preview nights start tonight, I'll take it Sting is busy so

finbarrk

Thanks in advance for the reports folks!

maximo31

There is one on in the Park Hotel Clonmel tonight.
Matt Chapman , Joseph O'Brien , Gary O'Brien , Kevin O'Ryan and Davy Russell part of the line up.
Not sure if there is anyone else.

tinpib

Ya these preview nights are good craic and not to be taken seriously. Would like to hear about the Clonmel one tonight if anyone happens to be there, would love to see Matt Chapman: Live and Uncensored.

jimjamcos

Think a few of them have been cancelled this week due to weather.

dk6dk6

jimjamcos wrote: »

Think a few of them have been cancelled this week due to weather.

Davy Russell will have a lot of spare time so

WickIow Brave

jimjamcos wrote: »

Think a few of them have been cancelled this week due to weather.

Sting must be devestated.

dk6dk6

For those interested there's a few write ups on preview nights on the fatjockey Cheltenham site, apologies but I don't have a clue how to add links.

dk6dk6

A few points I've read from having a look, a lot taking Getabird on, most with Kalashnikov. Everyone seems to agree BD wins Champion Hurdle. Didtheyleaveyououtto gets few mentions for bumper. Penhill expected to get backed for Stayers and probably go off fav. Balko Des Flos a lot of mentions for Ryanair. And Tom Segal reckons Hunters Call wins whatever race he runs in.

Oh and I almost forgot for Jim, a lot give Santini a great chance.

jimjamcos

dk6dk6 wrote:

Oh and I almost forgot for Jim, a lot give Santini a great chance.

5/1 in a place now so could very easily go of fav.

Must say, Paul Kealy's Albert Bartlett stats are worrying..

jimjamcos

dk6dk6 wrote:

Oh and I almost forgot for Jim, a lot give Santini a great chance.

5/1 in a place now so could very easily go of fav.

Must say, Paul Kealy's Albert Bartlett stats are worrying..

TheQuietFella

I went to one of these a few years ago and left at half time!
Absolutely ridiculous for anyone to think that these pundits will
or even can predict what's going to do well on the day given that
Cheltenham is two weeks away and the ground can change significantly!

My tips are to either watch it solely as a sporting event or to watch who the
money comes for in the major races!

Slattsy

jimjamcos wrote: »

5/1 in a place now so could very easily go of fav.

Must say, Paul Kealy's Albert Bartlett stats are worrying..

What stats?

I think Kealy is a bit of a clown anyway.

dk6dk6

TheQuietFella wrote: »

I went to one of these a few years ago and left at half time!
Absolutely ridiculous for anyone to think that these pundits will
or even can predict what's going to do well on the day given that
Cheltenham is two weeks away and the ground can change significantly!

My tips are to either watch it solely as a sporting event or to watch who the
money comes for in the major races!

I don't think anyone takes it to seriously. I just find it interesting to hear what a few have to say.

I also read almost everyone at these previews so far is saying Footpad is the worst priced favourite of the festival and they all seem to be taking him on. Wouldn't change my opinion on him and I'll be having a decent bet, I'll just wait as I'm certain he'll go off a bigger price on the day.

WickIow Brave

dk6dk6 wrote: »

I also read almost everyone at these previews so far is saying Footpad is the worst priced favourite of the festival and they all seem to be taking him on. Wouldn't change my opinion on him and I'll be having a decent bet, I'll just wait as I'm certain he'll go off a bigger price on the day.

So many want to take him on. He'll go off nearly 2/1 at this rate. 7/4 or bigger and he's the bet of the week.

dk6dk6

WickIow Brave wrote: »

So many want to take him on. He'll go off nearly 2/1 at this rate. 7/4 or bigger and he's the bet of the week.

Especially with the ground unlikely to be fast I think he's a cracking bet.

WickIow Brave

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Especially with the ground unlikely to be fast I think he's a cracking bet.

Yeah, I can't see PM reversing the form. Saint Calvados could be anything but he's well found in the market now and he'll only shorten while Footpad will drift.

handsfree2

Slattsy wrote: »

What stats?

I think Kealy is a bit of a clown anyway.

Exposed horses have a good record. Second season hurdlers. He put up calet mad

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote:

What stats?

Copied below from Fat Jockey forum...

PK - This race is brutal, really hard work for horses that are young. If you're a novice hurdler, and need 3m in your last season, you're a big backward future chaser. See these horses that turn up a short price, and go nowhere.

Last 10 years 
12 non finishers in Supreme
14 in Ballymore
62 in Albert Bartlett

These horses jog round in small fields, and then come here 24 runners hard and fast, good ground. You need an experienced horse, here. Penhill having 27th Start, UKWIMH 17th.

Calett Mad ran over fences last year, this horse was cantering in the NH Chase last year, came back over hurdles this year. Bolted up in Pertemps qualifier. Can't promise he'll win, but at 25/1 he'll still be there at the last, and lots won't be there

Fanny Wank

WickIow Brave wrote: »

So many want to take him on. He'll go off nearly 2/1 at this rate. 7/4 or bigger and he's the bet of the week.

Similar to Might Bite last year. Preview night circuit opinion

Headcase

All Scorpions are dodgy

Lay of the meeting

Etc etc

Connections seemed bullish, had the form in the book. Won and would have won by a mile bar it's antics. Saw a good tweet a few days ago comparing punter/preview night sentiment vs stable sentiment. The latter won out more often

WickIow Brave

Yeah I just find it difficult to see Footpad being beat. 4th in a Champion Hurdle is a very decent level as a hurdler and he's on a another level as a chaser. Whereas, Petit Mouchoir is probably of a similar level hurdling or chasing. Saint Calvados is an unknown but I'd want 8/1 or bigger to be backing an unknown tbh and he's 5s and could well go off second fav.

jimjamcos

In fairness to those laying Footpad, think it's a legitimate case being made.

Petit Mouchoir comfortably had his number 3 times over hurdles last season.

Petit Mouchoir, on his first run for a couple of months, made two howlers of mistakes early at Christmas but yet still kept tabs on the perfectly jumping Footpad handily enough with Russell barely laying a glove on him.

Footpad has never looked like a horse with a massive turn of foot to me (he reminds me a bit of Vautour - how he can just maintain a gallop with his effortless jumping putting a race to bed rather than speed) and Ruby and Mullins have always stated he was a stayer too (ran in Punchestown stayers and Mullins said he could be a Gold Cup horse at press day).

While I don't fancy them, the other 3 likely rivals in Arkle look proper 2 milers too so Footpad's definitely opposable for me.

WickIow Brave

Getabird is another everyone seems to be against. I can see him being a much bigger price on the day while something like Mengli Khan, Paloma Blue, Claimantakinforgan - one of those will go off single figures. I'm against Getabird myself but if he went out to a decent price I'd have to reconsider. I'd be against Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy, so if say Getabird drifts and Mengli Khan shortens a lot, I'd have to back Getabird whereas at the current prices I'd be on Mengli Khan. Almost certain Paloma Blue is going to be my main Supreme bet though and I'll probably back one more.

WickIow Brave

Who's to say Petit Mouchoir won't make jumping errors in the Arkle? Whereas Footpad's jumping is impeccable. I can see Petit Mouchoir bouncing from his Leopardstown run too. Townend wasn't exactly hard at it on Footpad either. Footpad was 5 last year running in Champion Hurdles so it was always going to be difficult for him so I think he did well considering. He's the younger, faster improving horse with no hold ups this season unlike PM. Petit Mouchoir was the Arkle winner in my mind from when he made his chase debut and even when Footpad won the Grade 1 at Christmas I thought he was very short and still sided with PM but after the Irish Arkle, I just can't see PM making up the deficit tbh.

jimjamcos

WickIow Brave wrote:

Who's to say Petit Mouchoir won't make jumping errors in the Arkle? Whereas Footpad's jumping is impeccable. I can see Petit Mouchoir bouncing from his Leopardstown run too. Townend wasn't exactly hard at it on Footpad either. Footpad was 5 last year running in Champion Hurdles so it was always going to be difficult for him so I think he did well considering. He's the younger, faster improving horse with no hold ups this season unlike PM. Petit Mouchoir was the Arkle winner in my mind from when he made his chase debut and even when Footpad won the Grade 1 at Christmas I thought he was very short and still sided with PM but after the Irish Arkle, I just can't see PM making up the deficit tbh.

No way of knowing if he'll make mistakes again, obviously, but he didn't make any after first two fences at Leopardstown so he's going the right way. Bounce factor surely isn't a danger for a horse only out with a minor injury 3 months?

I'm not saying Footpad won't win but I'd be confident that the Leopardstown race isn't a true representation of how close the two horses are.

WickIow Brave

jimjamcos wrote: »

No way of knowing if he'll make mistakes again, obviously, but he didn't make any after first two fences at Leopardstown so he's going the right way. Bounce factor surely isn't a danger for a horse only out with a minor injury 3 months?

I'm not saying Footpad won't win but I'd be confident that the Leopardstown race isn't a true representation of how close the two horses are.

Regards the bounce factor I thought it was a big run from Petit Mouchoir after a lay off and the jumping errors, I could see him running a bit flat maybe. He'll need to improve a lot from that run to beat Footpad, or Footpad running below himself.

Motivator

jimjamcos wrote: »

In fairness to those laying Footpad, think it's a legitimate case being made.

Petit Mouchoir comfortably had his number 3 times over hurdles last season.

Petit Mouchoir, on his first run for a couple of months, made two howlers of mistakes early at Christmas but yet still kept tabs on the perfectly jumping Footpad handily enough with Russell barely laying a glove on him.

Footpad has never looked like a horse with a massive turn of foot to me (he reminds me a bit of Vautour - how he can just maintain a gallop with his effortless jumping putting a race to bed rather than speed) and Ruby and Mullins have always stated he was a stayer too (ran in Punchestown stayers and Mullins said he could be a Gold Cup horse at press day).

While I don't fancy them, the other 3 likely rivals in Arkle look proper 2 milers too so Footpad's definitely opposable for me.

I thought Petit Mouchhoir’s performance at the Dublin Racing Festival was the one to take out of the whole weekend. He made two serious blunders, one where he landed in the middle of the fence, and he just got stronger as the race went on. De Bromhead’s horses always improve for going chasing and he’ll have Petit Mouchoir trained to the minute for the big one. He was delighted with the performance at Leopardstown and he will be confident of taking down Footpad.

I can see Footpad struggling to get home against the speedier types, he got outpaced in the Champion Hurdle last year and dragged himself up the hill, I can see the same thing happening this year. I think if Petit Mouchoir gets a run on Footpad, Footpad won’t catch him.

CheltenhamJ

And what of Sceau royal , he is the bet in the arkle , we have green tinted glasses