Fancies For Today III

jamieon

James Bethell is somewhat of a Newcastle specialist, he runs one horse today and it's the 7:30 newcastle "mudawann" currently around 16-20/1. The horse posted a decent 6th lto, has wlrecent winning form going back 3 runs ago albeit on turf, but it has won over c&d from a higher mark almost 2 years ago so at 20/1 I feel hes a great bet, in the same race however is "trumpets call" really well gambled on lto at Newcastle and only narrowly missed out so at 4/1 I think a rfc is another decent shout.

A quick glance at that 7.30 Newcastle, and GREAT COLACI, who has drifted out to a goodish price of 10/1 would appear to have a chance as well. He won over C & D in June on the Somewhat annoying Standard/ Slow going. Won over same on Standard 2 runs back.

2.10 Catterick LORD OBERON 7/2

2.20 Nottingham SHOW PALACE 6/1 PP

Goes well at this course on soft ground. Down 5lbs since he last won here in August of last year.

8.15 Kempton RAKEMATIZ 66/1 Boyles

Not the most reliable conveyance, but his last run was an improvement on most of his recent 8 or so, which go back to spring of last year. He came third over a furlong shorter at the course on that occasion. Surely 66/1 drastically underrepresents his chance of getting involved here. Four places to play for, and the trainer/jockey combo of Johnson/Carson are 2 winners from 9 in recent times. There are worse 66/1 shots imo... was 25s earlier, so don't know why such a drift. Hopefully no one told the horse. Also has a decent enough finishing kick, which could be quite useful....

^^^

Had every chance, and was well placed throughout. Has never won beyond 10fs before, and alas he didn't stay the trip tonight.

2.15 Lingfield DOCUMENTING 7/1 Gen

A nice moneyspinner for trainer Kevin Frost and Documenting ticks a few boxes here. Going by his C & D form he should be bang there. Drawn in the six box in this 9 runner affair he should have no pressure to be 'up with the pace' , thus able to get into a good racing rhythm I be thinking. If he does win, it will be off a higher mark than before at 107, but he's never raced off a mark this high before either, so not what one would call a 'negative'. Raymond Dawson, who won on him 2 runs back takes the ride claiming 5.

I believe he is more of a 9/2 shot, and his price may well shorten.

Hard to know what to make of the jolly Ghalyoon, who, at a best priced 9/4 looks a bit short based on what he has done.

Gluck if ye be having a go

1.36 Stratford SKEAPING 10/3 Gen

Of the top 4 in the market, Skeaping, for me is the one to beat here. He goes well at the Course on soft ground, and the distance (extended 2m 2fs) appears fine. It seems to me that the other 3 towards the top of the betting in this Selling Hurdle have more to prove - such as: not having much or any form on soft (all 3 imo), or first run for a new trainer (Doux Pretender & Floating Rock), and a long absence (Doux Pretender). 10/3 is not overly generous, but not stingy either. At 11/4 or above the selection is value imo.

5.30 Chelmsford ATLETICO 9/1 Gen with the online books, can't see any prices from PP or Spoils on Oddschecker.

Bit of a cliff horse this one. He hasn't won in three years, but I feel he has a win in him. Has been campaigned almost exclusively at 7fs for the last year and a half or so. Prior to that most of his races were at the sprint trips of 5 & 6fs. A few of those runs at 7 were at Chelmsford where he has acquitted himself well without winning. Interesting that his last 2 runs were at 6f; perhaps to drop further in the weights. I feel he is 'due' one, and that David Evans wants rid, so has decided to put him in this "Claiming Stakes" race.

At the prices there is plenty of scope for a punt, and while he's not the most dependable the price is decent. Hard to say if the price is 'value'... Could see him go off at 12s, or as low as 5s, and wouldn't be surprised either way. Worth a small win bet though anyway.

Just looking at the form, and, as I spot one with a chance, or that is decently priced, or over-priced, am putting them up.

Next one that that caught my eye:

6.00 Chelmsford BLAME CULTURE Plenty of 16s with the online books, 14s with PP

A few poor runs lately, but can draw a line through those for various reasons. Tom Queally has had the leg up in the selection's latest 8 outings, and Kieran Shoemark gets the ride this time (his first time on this horse - he's on another selection Atletico as well). His last run over C & D in July gives him every chance, and rates a cracking each way bet here.

Gluck

zimmermania

Jim Dreapers is a serious bet in the 3.20 Clonmel.

1.36 Stratford SKEAPING very big at 5s. Not fooling me - pushing him out to fool the punters :P

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

1.36 Stratford SKEAPING very big at 5s. Not fooling me - pushing him out to fool the punters :P

Bloody rancid carry on at Stratford. Last night the going was Soft - gd to soft in places. How da fuq does it change to gd to soft - soft in places overnight at this time of year :eek:. Won't be the last time I complain about the going either.
At least Lingfield is still at 'Standard' . It's a disgrace the clerks of the course giving bogus info to punters. No wonder Skeaping drifted :mad:

BOOOM!!

Great ride by Ray Dawson to get Documenting up on the line. Didn't think he got up myself in real time.

AnniePowwa

4.15 daring guest 12/1

but1er

Happy Gordan Elliot Day at down Royal, let's see how the big guns look

4.15 Newcastle KODI KOH 28/1 Boyles

Has a squeak here I think. This mare ran in a bargain basement Class 7 Handicap over C & D 2 runs back finishing fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. The race was ran in a good time, and my thinking is that there's not much difference in quality between that race, and this evening's; plus the horse is physically carrying 15lbs less on her back today. If she runs her race she shouldn't be too far back 'distance wise' at least. So a small win only bet on this one to provide a badly needed winner for Simon West.

same race VERDIGRIS 20/1 Boyles

Each way on this one, as I feel it is overpriced, and has as good a chance as any of making the frame; with 4 places likely on offer. Mrs Carr's horse looks more of an 8 - 10/1 poke to me.

5.45 Newcastle KLOPP 6/1 PP

Price is more than fair from a win perspective. C & D winner, won last time out, and trainer Antony Brittain is in flying form.

Also, in that race the fav Iain Jardine's NUBOUGH looks way too short here, at a best priced 11/4. I can see it drift myself - looks closer to a 4/1 shot to me.

2.10 Wetherby HAPPY DIVA 13/2 Boyles

Despite carrying top-weight this course winner has drifted out to a backable price, and should go well here.

Also NIETZSCHE 18/1 Boyles, 20/1 Bet365

Has a bit to prove, and not too many chase starts, but is capable of getting involved, and is also worth an investment at the price
available.

3.20 Wetherby BALLYVIC BORU 11/2 PP

Won over C & D around this time last year. Hasn't done much since, with a few poor runs in the interim. Most recent outing at Hereford after an absence was somewhat of a return to form. Price merits a small win bet.

2.55 Newmarket Will pick 2 here that have each way chances. I feel that they are both overpriced.

With Berrahri, I think punters will know their fate early on, as he's a frontrunner, but in spite of that if he doesn't get much of a challenge for the lead I think he'll acquit himself well here. A C & D winner here in August on soft at a big price, so heavy should suit.

Daawy can lie up close to the pace, and shouldn't be far away at the end, and again the ground should be okay.

A couple of others have claims, but in a race like this the bigger the price the better, and also value, which I believe the selections are.

Both each way because the favourite Whitehaven appears to be very progressive, and is up in grade, so if he runs his race it will be hard to see him beat. He doesn't make much appeal at the prices though, so it's an each way selection race.

DAAWY 12/1 Boyles
BERRAHRI 33/1 Boyles

Gluck all Boards punters

3.10 Uttoxeter UBETYA 22/1 Boyles

First run in a chase, and at a nice price he might finish in the first three here. A lot of these have little to no chase experience so may as well chance a big priced one. So, with that in mind, will also go each way for the rank outsider as well ha.. He at least has 7 chase starts, and completed the course in the last 6.

LESKINFERE 200/1 Boyles 500/1 with a couple of the online books incl Bet365

pottokblue

Ubetya a strong second to Gumball good pick

Even if I have no cash in pocket I still get pleasure from picking placers/winners, I picked 5 placers at Uttoexter today that turned out to be winners...

pottokblue

pottokblue wrote: »

Ubetya a strong second to Gumball good pick

Even if I have no cash in pocket I still get pleasure from picking placers/winners, I picked 5 placers at Uttoexter today that turned out to be winners...

Some top notch picking alright pottokblue. 5 winners is nowt to be sneezed at. WD.

A bit like me - they're only up for 'posterity' , and alas, not 'prosperity' :pac:

7.45 Newcastle INSURPLUS 11/1 Gen

Tomorrow Ayr 1.42 CHARMIX 12s Boyles, 16s with Bet365 who are often the standout price.

Could be a lot of pace on in this, so will take a chance on this Lucinda Russell horse. He can run in mid-div from off the pace, and hopefully pick up the pieces late on to collect his first win in almost 4 years. A case can be made for quite a few, as most operate on soft and heavy going. Quite a few frontrunners too, so hopefully they'll 'cut each other's throats' on the front end. Am clutching at straws a bit here, but should give punters a run for their money, and will, with a bit of luck be bang in contention 4fs out. I think each way is the way to go here.

Gluck

3.20 Wetherby Charlie Hall Chase BALLYOPTIC 6/1 PP, Boyles.. 13/2 readily available from online books.

Very tough competitor. Doesn't have anything to prove. Won this last year. A repeat performance should see him in contention.

The top 3 in the betting may have King George, or Gold Cup aspirations, or such prestigious races, whereas the selection is probably destined for a Grand National Tilt. He may be more of a 'plodder' than the rest of them, but today is 3m in soft ground at Wetherby, and the selection is more than good enough to prevail here imo.

There will be no hiding place here, and I can see this tough and gutsy horse 'up in the van' , and I can't see him shirk the issue. Some of the other well thought of horses might have more questions asked of them than they would like, and could well be found wanting in the 'heart' department.

Doesn't really have any negatives either, and at 10 years old he's hardly past it. At his price he is without a doubt the value horse in the race; and, to me the likely winner.

Gluck all

1.55 Ascot CAID DU LIN 11/1 Boyles

Another value selection here, and available at a working man's (or woman, or even the smart folk who get paid to do nothing ) price.

Not much on form to give him an outstanding chance here (another one I like is Amoola Gold) , but Ascot is a course that appears to suit, and he has ran well here before; winning once , and being placed on a couple of occasions.

Aside from Amoola Gold, who won well last time, there is nothing much that stands out here. The price is bigger than I thought (was expecting 7s) and would have rated a small bet, but because it's now available at 11s, perhaps a moderate bet. The horse has drifted alright, but I'm putting it down to the fact that there is a non-runner, which makes this less of an each way race.

As mentioned, I think perhaps Amoola Gold should go very close, but the selection here is a middling win bet on CAID DU LIN, and perhaps a small saver on Amoola Gold (9/2 Gen).

Good luck all

zimmermania

Black Corton has 11 .12 to carry in the 3.40 Ascot and it may seem a big ask but others have won this with that weight and if the wind op has improved him any bit he could win today PP going 5 places so I had a good ew bet.