Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

stefanovich · 16-10-2017 2:18pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Has officially turned wild here. Peak gust 43 knots so far with current mean 26 knots. Strange to see all the streets in my part of town completely empty when I was walking home

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Pressure readings are just nose diving here. Eye is obviously approaching.

Where's here?

Oneiric 3 · 16-10-2017 2:19pm

km79 wrote: »

Nothing too severe outside of coastal regions ?

Looking that way, but it would not surprise me if there was a bit of a kick as that low moves north of our region, but at this stage, looking like the worst will be soon over for us.

JCX BXC · 16-10-2017 2:19pm

Waterford airport reporting a gust of 74kts at 2pm, with winds from the East.

Breaston Plants · 16-10-2017 2:20pm

km79 wrote: »

Nothing too severe outside of coastal regions ?

Seems the west not getting the strong winds as predicted, would that be right?

Oneiric 3 · 16-10-2017 2:20pm

stefanovich wrote: »

Where's here?

Galway (east)

Wombatman · 16-10-2017 2:21pm

sdanseo wrote: »

If that comes off it completely justifies the national red (I think it already has been justified). 43kt is the criterion for red.

The whole house just shook here in Dublin.

The national red was justified based on the forecast. What actually happens is just hindsight (after timing) and is only relevant for hind casting models.

MJohnston · 16-10-2017 2:23pm

Breaston Plants wrote: »

Seems the west not getting the strong winds as predicted, would that be right?

Yes, it seems to be as predicted, though bear in mind what MTC mentioned in his 1pm update:

A detail that I wanted to underscore for west coast readers especially from Tralee north to Galway is that extreme westerly winds 130-170 km/hr may develop shortly after the passage of the low centre between 1:30 pm and 3:30 pm. These may be stronger than any winds that occurred in the southeasterly phase before the centre arrived. Violent gusts could cause some structural damage and beach debris could become a hazard in some places (thinking of Lahinch for example). This cycle of the storm will probably begin to lose intensity just about when it reaches Galway so would predict 100-150 km/hr winds there around 3:00 to 4:00 p.m.

Discodog · 16-10-2017 2:23pm

Feel like the eye is very close to Spiddal. Winds moving to the south.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-10-2017 2:23pm

Waterford Airport now easterly 49 gust 74 knots

Harry Palmr · 16-10-2017 2:23pm

Anyone got a map of the current wind conditions?

yop · 16-10-2017 2:27pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Anyone got a map of the current wind conditions?

https://www.windy.com/53.292/-9.011?gust,53.290,-8.991,14,m:e7YafT7

Discodog · 16-10-2017 2:28pm

Eye has passed Spiddal. Winds now SW
Shannon Radar down

Middle Man · 16-10-2017 2:32pm

Discodog wrote: »

Feel like the eye is very close to Spiddal. Winds moving to the south.

According to the short range forecast on ME, that would be about right...

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

The eye is due in Connemara for around 3pm...

Wombatman · 16-10-2017 2:32pm

Max Wave at M3 Weather Bouy (South West).

M5 (South East) yet to peak.

Oneiric 3 · 16-10-2017 2:49pm

Met Eireann analysis animation for the last few hours. Didn't catch the 11z frame so apologies in advance.

Middle Man · 16-10-2017 3:05pm

Doltanian wrote: »

Winds eased down here in Kerry I think the worst is over for us.

It's not over yet - here's the latest short range forecast...

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

I'd say you'd be better off staying put...

Bobeagleburger · 16-10-2017 3:06pm

Yep, it's over the Clifden direction now

Oneiric 3 · 16-10-2017 3:12pm

Current conditions: SSE 22 knots. Pressure now steady.

Donegal Storm · 16-10-2017 3:13pm

360,000 now without power, myself included

Gusts and sustained winds have notably picked up in the past half an hour here in Kildare though nothing too severe. Have the day off today so haven't been out anywhere to check damage locally

16-10-2017 3:18pm

Image at 2.45 pm. Centre appears to be over western Mayo now.

suicide_circus · 16-10-2017 3:26pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Waterford Airport now easterly 49 gust 74 knots

thats eh....brisk

Oneiric 3 · 16-10-2017 3:27pm

Mean speeds have increased to 27 knots here. Direction now SSW with pressure now rising very rapidly. 974.3 hPa currently.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-10-2017 3:36pm

Dublin Bay Buoy currently mean 40, gust 70 knots

Xenji · 16-10-2017 3:37pm

Dead calm in Castlebar now, centre must be close by, the rain is falling vertically.

london.irish · 16-10-2017 3:50pm

Appears to have died down a bit in Clonmel.

morticia2 · 16-10-2017 3:53pm

Just wondering; if Cork was getting 195kph gusts, does this put the storm at a Cat 3 equivalent for the SW? Or does the sustained wind speed have to be 178–208 km/h? Either way, ouch!