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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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stefanovich

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Has officially turned wild here. Peak gust 43 knots so far with current mean 26 knots. Strange to see all the streets in my part of town completely empty when I was walking home

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Pressure readings are just nose diving here. Eye is obviously approaching.

Where's here?

Oneiric 3

km79 wrote: »

Nothing too severe outside of coastal regions ?

Looking that way, but it would not surprise me if there was a bit of a kick as that low moves north of our region, but at this stage, looking like the worst will be soon over for us.

JCX BXC

Waterford airport reporting a gust of 74kts at 2pm, with winds from the East.

Breaston Plants

km79 wrote: »

Nothing too severe outside of coastal regions ?

Seems the west not getting the strong winds as predicted, would that be right?

Oneiric 3

stefanovich wrote: »

Where's here?

Galway (east)

Wombatman

sdanseo wrote: »

If that comes off it completely justifies the national red (I think it already has been justified). 43kt is the criterion for red.

The whole house just shook here in Dublin.

The national red was justified based on the forecast. What actually happens is just hindsight (after timing) and is only relevant for hind casting models.

MJohnston

Breaston Plants wrote: »

Seems the west not getting the strong winds as predicted, would that be right?

Yes, it seems to be as predicted, though bear in mind what MTC mentioned in his 1pm update:

A detail that I wanted to underscore for west coast readers especially from Tralee north to Galway is that extreme westerly winds 130-170 km/hr may develop shortly after the passage of the low centre between 1:30 pm and 3:30 pm. These may be stronger than any winds that occurred in the southeasterly phase before the centre arrived. Violent gusts could cause some structural damage and beach debris could become a hazard in some places (thinking of Lahinch for example). This cycle of the storm will probably begin to lose intensity just about when it reaches Galway so would predict 100-150 km/hr winds there around 3:00 to 4:00 p.m.

Discodog

Feel like the eye is very close to Spiddal. Winds moving to the south.

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford Airport now easterly 49 gust 74 knots

Harry Palmr

Anyone got a map of the current wind conditions?

yop

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Anyone got a map of the current wind conditions?

https://www.windy.com/53.292/-9.011?gust,53.290,-8.991,14,m:e7YafT7

Discodog

Eye has passed Spiddal. Winds now SW
Shannon Radar down

Middle Man

Discodog wrote: »

Feel like the eye is very close to Spiddal. Winds moving to the south.

According to the short range forecast on ME, that would be about right...

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

The eye is due in Connemara for around 3pm...

Wombatman

Max Wave at M3 Weather Bouy (South West).

M5 (South East) yet to peak.

Oneiric 3

Met Eireann analysis animation for the last few hours. Didn't catch the 11z frame so apologies in advance.

Middle Man

Doltanian wrote: »

Winds eased down here in Kerry I think the worst is over for us.

It's not over yet - here's the latest short range forecast...

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

I'd say you'd be better off staying put...

[Deleted User]

Yep, it's over the Clifden direction now

Oneiric 3

Current conditions: SSE 22 knots. Pressure now steady.

Donegal Storm

360,000 now without power, myself included

Gusts and sustained winds have notably picked up in the past half an hour here in Kildare though nothing too severe. Have the day off today so haven't been out anywhere to check damage locally

[Deleted User]

Image at 2.45 pm. Centre appears to be over western Mayo now.

suicide_circus

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Waterford Airport now easterly 49 gust 74 knots

thats eh....brisk

Oneiric 3

Mean speeds have increased to 27 knots here. Direction now SSW with pressure now rising very rapidly. 974.3 hPa currently.

Gaoth Laidir

Dublin Bay Buoy currently mean 40, gust 70 knots

Xenji

Dead calm in Castlebar now, centre must be close by, the rain is falling vertically.

london.irish

Appears to have died down a bit in Clonmel.

morticia2

Just wondering; if Cork was getting 195kph gusts, does this put the storm at a Cat 3 equivalent for the SW? Or does the sustained wind speed have to be 178–208 km/h? Either way, ouch!

happyoutscan

Has been extremely calm here in Westport, winds just starting to pick up now.

star gazer

Xenji wrote: »

Dead calm in Castlebar now, centre must be close by, the rain is falling vertically.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919930946467647489
Take extreme care.

Mr_A

Wind speeds rising at Fastnet again, is that expected?

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919936110373036034

Oneiric 3

Sun's come out and a rainbow has appeared. Isolated gusts up to 50 knots still but seems to be gradually easing up by and large.