Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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morticia2 wrote: »

Just wondering; if Cork was getting 195kph gusts, does this put the storm at a Cat 3 equivalent for the SW? Or does the sustained wind speed have to be 178–208 km/h? Either way, ouch!

Hurricanes/tropical storms are measured by 1-minute sustained winds, so yes, it has to be sustained winds of 178–208 km/h

Wombatman

Wombatman wrote: »

Max Wave at M3 Weather Bouy (South West).



M5 (South East) yet to peak.

Over 15 meters recorded at M5

Middle Man

Latest Wind Map @ 16:00...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-11.30,53.45,3000/loc=-5.493,53.395

Southerly winds of around 93kph over the Irish Sea.

piuswal

LATEST IRISH WEATHER REPORTS
ON 16-OCT-2017 for 15:00
Location Wind Weather Temp Humidity Rain Pressure
Dir Speed(Kts) oC (%) (mm) (hPa)
ATHENRY GALWAY(A) S 31 Gust 50 -- 13 81 1.1 975
BALLYHAISE CAVAN(A) SE 25 Gust 50 RECENT RAIN 13 79 Trace 984
BELMULLET(A) NE 18 Gust 31 MODERATE RAIN 12 94 1.8 978
CASEMENT AERODROME S 38 Gust 61 RAIN SHOWER 13 83 Trace 990
CLAREMORRIS(A) SE 21 Gust 43 -- 12 95 1.9 972
CORK AIRPORT n/a n/a - n/a - n/a n/a n/a n/a
DUBLIN AIRPORT S 31 Gust 56 LIGHT DRIZZLE 14 72 Trace 991
DUNSANY MEATH(A) S 25 Gust 57 -- 13 80 0.0 988
FINNER DONEGAL(A) E 24 Gust 41 LIGHT RAIN 12 87 1.1 982
GURTEEN TIPPERARY(A S 31 Gust 52 - n/a - 14 94 0.3 982
JOHNSTOWN CASTLE(A) S 35 Gust 60 RECENT DRIZZLE 13 87 Trace 994
KNOCK AIRPORT(P) SE 32 Gust 50 MODERATE RAIN 11 96 1.6 974
MACE HEAD GALWAY(A) W 31 Gust 38 MODERATE RAIN 12 95 4.4 974
MALIN HEAD(A) E 32 Gust 45 LIGHT RAIN 15 69 Trace 990
MARKREE SLIGO(A) -- -- -- 12 92 1.5 979
MOOREPARK CORK(A) SW 20 Gust 46 -- 15 n/a 0.0 988
MT DILLON ROSCOM(A) SE 31 Gust 50 -- 12 94 0.4 980
MULLINGAR(A) SE 24 Gust 49 RAIN SHOWER 12 88 0.1 984
NEWPORT MAYO(A) NE 16 Gust 34 -- 11 93 6.2 973
OAK PARK CARLOW(A) S 31 Gust 58 - n/a - 12 92 0.5 989
PHOENIX PARK(A) -- -- -- 14 70 0.0 991
ROCHES POINT(A) SW 37 Gust 56 MODERATE RAIN 13 99 2.7 991
SHANNON AIRPORT SW 37 Gust 57 RECENT RAIN 14 77 Trace 982
SHERKIN ISLAND(A) n/a n/a - n/a - n/a n/a n/a n/a
VALENTIA(A) SW 22 Gust 34 CLOUDY 14 86 0.0 989
NOTE: Above is based on the LATEST observations received.
(A) denotes a full-time Automatic(unmanned) station.
(P) denotes part-time Automatic on evenings/nights.
Pressure is atmospheric pressure at Mean Sea Level.
'--' means that the element is not measured
'n/a' means that the element is not available at present

Donegal Storm

Another death reported unfortunately in Louth with a car crushed by a tree

Richie Blackmor

The eerie quiet spell is just finishing here now in Ballina. The wind turning now to the south west - a much better direction for the roof of my house.:)

star gazer

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919943002268880896

Fastnet winds increasing back up to 67 knot avg with 80 knot gusts.
https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919945704193384456

flaneur

There's quite nasty gusting again in Cork City.

Are we in for another band ?
Or, what's causing this?

(Apologies if I am posting on technical thread, my connectivity is severely limited at the moment due to the storm and I can't even load the graphics.)

froog

cork getting some afters now

Gaoth Laidir

METAR EIME 161500Z 18039G63KT 9999 -SHRA FEW015 BKN026 14/11 Q0989

Casement gusting 63 knots.

Dublin only 50 knots, but to get up to 58 knots soon (TEMPO)

METAR EIDW 161500Z 17031G50KT 9000 FEW016 SCT022 BKN035 14/10 Q0989 TEMPO 17040G58KT

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/919929987951742976

The_Outsider

Winds normalizing a bit here now.
Low to mid 20s from the West.
Pressure shooting up though ; now @ 993mb
At the height of it, I had a Max of 62mph from SSW.
Strange that the wind sounded worse when it was from the SE - we had a peak of 59mph from there.
Was expecting more of a post-eye blast but that appears to not have materialised.

Wombatman

Wombatman wrote: »

Over 15 meters recorded at M5

17.8 meters at 15:00 UTC :eek:

Middle Man

Wombatman wrote: »

17.8 meters at 15:00 UTC :eek:

That's a four storey office block!

mirrorwall14

I saw a tweet relating to the formation of a sting jet currently forming. Is this accurate?

Middle Man

In East Meath, we've just lost power...

Doltanian

Huge winds here in Kerry again, worst since before 12 noon.

rustynutz

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Chong

I hate to ask but is it done in Dublin or is there a round 2 due?

happyoutscan

rustynutz wrote: »

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Picking up in Westport but not too extreme yet.

Oneiric 3

Nothing to be concerned about yet but this is what the GFS is showing for this coming Friday..

Gaoth Laidir

Wombatman wrote: »

17.8 meters at 15:00 UTC :eek:

Last I saw Kinsale Energy had reported a 26-metre wave earlier this afteroon.

Xenji

rustynutz wrote: »

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Nothing yet that we are not used to, rain has been more of an issue, but the gusts have been increasing in the last half an hour, this is inline with what Met Eireann forecast.

Gaoth Laidir

A nice water vapour animation of the upper shortwave interacting with Ophelia yesterday and the following track towards Ireland. Note how the timing of the upper shortwave was just bang on. Right place, right time!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL172017&starting_image=2017AL17_16KMGWVP_201710150015.GIF&ending_image=2017AL17_16KMGWVP_201710161515.GIF

gooner99

Chong wrote: »

I hate to ask but is it done in Dublin or is there a round 2 due?

Must be done, RTE1 have stopped broadcasting it. lol

Oneiric 3

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

Xenji

Its an amazing sight to see how quickly the clouds are swirling about in Castlebar, it has gotten far worse in the last couple of minutes.

sdanseo

Just coming back to this one that I mentioned was on the island (in fact, 6.5km offshore).

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919878538664300545

Allowing for the fact that we measure in a 10-minute average and the NHC use 1-minute, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that Ophelia hit us as a Category 2 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone. Joanna was spot on.

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

Yes, indeed, the models from 3 days out were fantastically accurate, despite a brief flirtation with a more easterly track on Saturday. It's really disappointing to read the attitudes of some in the general Discussion thread who simply won't accept that in hindsight, a countrywide red alert was almost certainly warranted based on both the slight uncertainty in the tracks and the damage done along the actual track.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

That was Tim Vasquez, and he meant it in the sense that some meteorologists have become pure pattern readers and the art of applying meteorological knowledge and experience is becoming a thing of the past.