FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

The trend is becoming our friend. The next 48hrs of model watching will be interesting to say the least. I expect some hairy moments but I'm starting to believe we'll get there this time

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shows blizzard potential between 26th and 1st of March, with that depth of cold air pouring in on a fairly tight easterly gradient. Honestly, it should be illegal to show us these maps without a guarantee.

(not that I have any trouble getting snow here, 5 cms on the ground since I posted an hour ago)

Was just thinking, there will no doubt be a dedicated thread soon if this model consensus gets stronger, let's say nobody jump the gun, need ECM and GFS at a minimum to agree within 120 hours for -8 uppers to reach Ireland? Then we could start one up.

Sounds reasonable, but make it 144 hrs if UKMO is on board too :pac:.

You could have an "evolution thread" and then closer the time an actual forecast thread.

Anyone starting a forecast thread at this stage would need insurance for their reputation.

(quote)
That’s day after tomorrow howling blizzard at the Scottish science station hand me the
biscuits while we drink the tea stuff :eek
(unquote)

stand by for an address from Clement Attlee?

I would only start a thread at 48 hours out. An easterly can disappear at that range - as we saw back in 2012, although we did not have a record breaking ssw back then. I think we will get an easterly or north easterly, but something rather tamer than what the models currently show. I hope i'm wrong about that. We need new stories rather than harking back to the epic snow events of the 80s.

Its very clearly possible to me that the end of February will be very cold.

Worst case scenario I see by the charts is severe frosts

Best case scenario I see is numerous days of school closures and high sales of spades.

When you think about it, it's rather amazing that we could predict what the models were about to say before they said it.

Donegal Storm wrote: »

December 2010 is still the holy grail for me, if the current charts were being shown a month ago (and at 24z) then they might rival it but it doesn't get much better than this. Massive block across the whole Atlantic and strong unstable northerlies dropping straight from northern Greenland. Doubt I'll see similar in my lifetime again

I have to disagree slightly, if the above GFS chart comes off the time of year will be irrevelant- it will rival things that took place in the winter of 1947 for some.

For me personally 2010 was the greatest snow event ever - i had never seen a foot of snow at home before, and i doubt i will again.
I have seen greater amounts of snow in Canada, but it's not the same as seeing snow where you grew up.

Yeah looking good, cold brought in earlier rather than the usual donkey chasing a frozen carrot on a stick into April.

Well GFS, ECM and GEM (inter alia) all showing what we want to see this morning. Still big differences though. ECM and GEM have it colder with the incredible cold arriving sometime during Monday week. GFS has it ending that day for Ireland, a less cold easterly having landed this Friday coming.

GFS 00Z was very dissapointing in my opinion, never got the easterly going. The 06Z much better and more comforting though

The GEFS 06z upper air temps for Dublin are a cracker .

squarecircles wrote: »

If you want to keep your head in touch with reality,it will probably be 3 cold days with a diluted modified cold,with milder conditions out towards the west coast.

Usually I would agree with such a statement but to be honest I think maybe and just maybe this time it will be much more potent.

It was a projected easterly incursion (sub -15 850 hpa and super low 500 hpa height levels) that came down to the wire well within the more reliable timeframe and would have provided record breaking cold. At the last minute there was sudden cross model agreement to take it down in to the continent and it gave record breaking cold weather over large swathes and as far southwest as Spain and Portugal.


It was spectacular for them but we were left in a high pressure dominated no mans land.





Lessons were learned!

Still time for it to go pear shaped but with so many seasoned peeps calling this one I'm very confident. Remember minus 5 uppers from an Easterly is enough with low dewpoints and the gfs / ecm are going down as low as minus 12

If it does come off and bear in mind the US has had a very cold winter the global warming experts may be left scratching their heads....

If this is global warming bring it on!!

12z GFS rolling out, not looking too bad, looks like more potential than the 06z run to my untrained eye.


12Z


06Z

GFS actually bringing the beast forward

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

JCX BXC wrote: »

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

That's akin to mapping a dream across the smnaptic area of your brain next Sunday.
I.e could snow just about anywhere,even cork,maybe.probably not though.

And the very last teaser as were gone into bonkers territory



Fairly solid run overall, few more of these and we'll be talking!