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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The GFS 06z continues to tease. Upper airs don't look that impressive given the synoptics.

    cHYE4PW.png

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The GFS 06z continues to tease. Upper airs don't look that impressive given the synoptics.

    Source of that easterly appears to be the Med though, so not drawing off any real cold pool of air.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The 17th/18th continues to be the turning point of high pressure building from the south, right on the tip of FI.

    Let's get the high pressure in before even thinking about the easterlies. All historical cold spells start somewhere with either a Scandinavian high, retrogression to a Greenland high or high pressure over top of the UK and Ireland. For example, before the December 2009 cold spell took off on the 16th, an area of high pressure brought frosts to us from the 10th to the 15th after an unsettled start to the month.

    Just some examples of the many models showing the 17th/18th as the turning point.

    lKsuKTv.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Averages still showing a very strong signal for an easterly flow though still more than a week away so major caution advised as always. Now looks like the 22nd before any real cold reaches us, hopefully its not the 23rd this time tomorrow..

    No matter how the high positions itself a far drier and more settled spell looks likely and I'd gladly take that in itself

    EDM1-240_xaf6.GIF

    gens-21-1-240_xji6.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 06z control run.

    KorJI0o.png

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Imagine if we got something like that GFS control run chart above. Would be sub zero temps right on the coast with onshore winds and heavy snow showers :D

    Seriously though, the models have started hinting at some interesting maneuvers in Europe over the next few weeks. Model watching has just gotten very interesting. Fingers crossed


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Imagine if we got something like that GFS control run chart above. Would be sub zero temps right on the coast with onshore winds and heavy snow showers :D

    Seriously though, the models have started hinting at some interesting maneuvers in Europe over the next few weeks. Model watching has just gotten very interesting. Fingers crossed

    Indeed there's even a lovely kink on the isobars over the Irish Sea, Lake effect snow would be in full flow. -12/-13c uppers with some strength in the sun to aid convective activity. I miss the days when the biggest concern was maybe ending up under the IOM or Anglesey shadow for a few hours...I.e Dec 2010


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Source of that easterly appears to be the Med though, so not drawing off any real cold pool of air.
    It doesn't necessarily work that way, the isobars generally don't match the wind direction in an Atlantic against a block battleground situation when an occlusion grinds to a halt.
    Look up any big snowstorm chart in the archives and you will see they don't look like easterly blasts which is what they were.
    I think I'm getting ahead of myself here, its far too soon to be talking about battleground situations as these mouth watering charts are FI. :p

    Rrea00119820108.gif

    This chart on the day of the Blizzard of the century doesn't even look cold!

    The charts for the three day snowstorm of Jan 25-27 1917 look like a rather mild south easterly.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1917/Rslp19170125.gif

    Rslp19470225.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Another tense 12z about to roll out :o


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Another tense 12z about to roll out :o

    Nah, just settled, going back to the GFS 00z.

    YZPJDQG.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    Could Cheltenham races mid March be jeopardised by this oncoming snowmageddon?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    torres9kop wrote: »
    Could Cheltenham races mid March be jeopardised by this oncoming snowmageddon?

    Nobody's expecting snowmageddon :P but if everything was setup right, I don't see why not.

    GFS 12z eventually gets to easterly but overall, it is more inline with the GFS 00z and is a downgrade on the GFS 06z. Expect lots more flip flopping.

    CDd9Ibl.png

    qctjwDB.png

    The 18th continues to be the day when the high pressure builds from the south meanwhile - this is now out of FI range.

    dxpRMca.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    torres9kop wrote: »
    Could Cheltenham races mid March be jeopardised by this oncoming snowmageddon?

    In all honesty we don't know what the weather will be at next week , so nearly a month away , we wouldn't have a clue


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Found this very interesting !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 12z control run is a bit of a mess but in general, it has us in a settled pattern.

    g24UwLq.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,758 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    On BBC1, the met office said that we are entering a milder period but there are signs that the end of February will be very very cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    ECM about to show us a very nice FI I would think - +144hrs chart looking good with heights punching north.

    ECMOPNH12_144_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Strange run, holds low heights over greenland/Iceland which seems somewhat unlikely to me. The transition from +144hrs to +168hrs to +192 hours doesn't look quite right either, it's showing too much strength in the PV over the greenland area.

    More chopping and changing to come, I suspect the models haven't a clue how to handle these sustained assaults on the stratosphere. I'm thinking we will see big improvements in the +120 to +144hrs timeframe very soon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    RobertKK wrote: »
    On BBC1, the met office said that we are entering a milder period but there are signs that the end of February will be very very cold.

    It's not the UK met office that provide the weather anymore. The BBC still use them for weather warnings, though.

    The GFS takes its time in bringing an easterly, then has it going away after a few days. Is this the usual GFS habit of been too quick with a breakdown? It reminds me of back in late February 2013, the GFS twice signalled an end to blocking but the blocking persisted . I hope it will prove to be the same this time. The UK Met office have it persisting well into March


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,654 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looks like Ireland is about to be swallowed by the whale in this map



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Strange run, holds low heights over greenland/Iceland which seems somewhat unlikely to me. The transition from +144hrs to +168hrs to +192 hours doesn't look quite right either, it's showing too much strength in the PV over the greenland area.

    More chopping and changing to come, I suspect the models haven't a clue how to handle these sustained assaults on the stratosphere. I'm thinking we will see big improvements in the +120 to +144hrs timeframe very soon.




    Well let's hope so, because it would be a real sickner with a split vortex and then a seconday warming if that is the actual outcome. I will remain optimistic given the UK Met Office outlook. If that suddenly changes then it will probably be game over.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS 12z control run is a bit of a mess but in general, it has us in a settled pattern.

    In fact, this run reminds me an awful lot of the second half of February 2013. That was an unusually long, quiet spell of weather with rather cool temperatures but nothing spectacular and some frosts with the best of sunshine in the west. That was the same year the January 2013 SSW took place and then March arrived.... we all know what happened there.

    Goes back to me saying, get the high pressure in first. All historical cold spells begin somewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Strange run, holds low heights over greenland/Iceland which seems somewhat unlikely to me. The transition from +144hrs to +168hrs to +192 hours doesn't look quite right either, it's showing too much strength in the PV over the greenland area.

    More chopping and changing to come, I suspect the models haven't a clue how to handle these sustained assaults on the stratosphere. I'm thinking we will see big improvements in the +120 to +144hrs timeframe very soon.
    Not strange just fantasy island
    It’s got it right up to the point the high sits on us
    After that it’s like FI on any run any night of the week,even when it shows what you want,totally unreliable


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Not strange just fantasy island
    It’s got it right up to the point the high sits on us
    After that it’s like FI on any run any night of the week,even when it shows what you want,totally unreliable

    I just find it odd the way it flattens a ridge building northwards with lots of WAA heading straight towards the pole with such ease and then defaults to the PV over greenland, it's like someone flicked a switch at +168hrs and the ECM became unaware of strat situation. Not an impossible outcome by any means but I would say improbable at this point given where the warmings are occurring. Goes against the MJO analogues too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    It’s a problem with 24hr frames,you just don’t see the detail (albeit fantasy detail)

    you get only a quarter of the information that’s on the gfs and 24hours is a long time in weather
    That wouldn’t mean what it’s done isn’t plausible
    It’s as likely as anything else it throws up

    That’s the thing about model watching and forecasting
    There’s a lot of has this happened before about it and a lot of is there cross model agreement
    Lack of the latter means guessing at a blend of what the computer programmes are saying

    In my opinion the high cannot head south when the cold is there and lows further below
    If it’s going to retrogress it will want to follow the waa or head for another high
    Heading northeast in this run it actually does that in aiming for northern Russia/Siberia and a high there somewhere

    Regardless ,Midweek next week is when we will know what’s what
    If it’s a March 2013,it can take a 100 yard dash off a 50 yard pier as far as I’m concerned


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I just find it odd the way it flattens a ridge building northwards with lots of WAA heading straight towards the pole with such ease and then defaults to the PV over greenland, it's like someone flicked a switch at +168hrs and the ECM became unaware of strat situation. Not an impossible outcome by any means but I would say improbable at this point given where the warmings are occurring. Goes against the MJO analogues too.

    Unless it foresees what other models don't-namely the vortex somehow remaining robust enough to stay where it is. As you say it's improbable, but not impossible. I did notice that some of strat experts over on netweather were cautioning this might happen. We just have to hope the ECM hasn't being able to get a proper handling on the effect of the second warming. With this in mind the ECM has been poor enough this year , so that gives me some hope that it is struggling to get a handle on this complicated setup that is ongoing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭typhoony


    an SSW event usually results in the amplification of the jet, correct if I'm wrong but we more often than not end on the wrong side of the amplification i.e the warm side whereas the North East of the U.S gets frigid weather


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    typhoony wrote: »
    an SSW event usually results in the amplification of the jet, correct if I'm wrong but we more often than not end on the wrong side of the amplification i.e the warm side whereas the North East of the U.S gets frigid weather

    2/3 (66%) SSW events work in our favour for cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Have to disagree @george sunsnow, it's not as likely as likely as any other output as its not likely we will see a strengthening vortex over greenland at all. Never mind the SSW, later into February is when it normally starts to weaken, on top of such a major SSW I just cannot see that happening. This isn't anything like our normal setup.

    'The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
    The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -20.1 m/s
    Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -13.0 m/s 1987'

    http://weatheriscool.com


    I'm not saying we will definitely have very cold weather however it's not a likely option that our chances get scuppered through low heights over the greenland area*

    144-192hrs however unreliable is still modeled in the high resolution part of the run.

    *there was a slight uptick in solar activity, we don't want to see this pick up anymore and I really hope this hasn't thrown a spanner in the works.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭esposito


    Just watched the latest update on bbc news 24 there. Saying a fair chance of cold easterly winds end of next week. Lets’ just hope the cold floods far enough west over the Irish Sea to us.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

    *there was a slight uptick in solar activity, we don't want to see this pick up anymore and I really hope this hasn't thrown a spanner in the works.

    I do recall Stuart Rampling blaming this for the infamous easterly that never was in December 2012. Is that really plausible? Can it override all other signals? I mean we are due to see warm air over the eastern usa and parts of Canada which usually correlates with colder outbreaks over the UK and Ireland. Everything seems to favour a cold outbreak, rather than a continuation of the current pattern.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    18z gfs is back on track....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Have to disagree @george sunsnow, it's not as likely as likely as any other output as its not likely we will see a strengthening vortex over greenland at all. Never mind the SSW, later into February is when it normally starts to weaken, on top of such a major SSW I just cannot see that happening. This isn't anything like our normal setup.

    'The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
    The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -20.1 m/s
    Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -13.0 m/s 1987'

    http://weatheriscool.com


    I'm not saying we will definitely have very cold weather however it's not a likely option that our chances get scuppered through low heights over the greenland area*

    144-192hrs however unreliable is still modeled in the high resolution part of the run.

    *there was a slight uptick in solar activity, we don't want to see this pick up anymore and I really hope this hasn't thrown a spanner in the works.
    I’m not sure what you’re disagree’ing with

    Experts at the UKMO think easterlies are likely
    So they don’t believe output like tonight’s ECM is likely
    I don’t either and didn’t say I did
    What I said was it’s not an impossible outcome out of the range of possibilities that our high would board a return Siberian express
    Obviously it’s unlikely because a Greenland low of the depth modeled doesn’t seem what you’d expect, Ergo our high shouldn’t be looking at Russia somewhere as a friendlier direction to move
    But if you do have a low up there,prepare to be goosed

    Incidentally high resolution counts for little if it’s inaccurate at that range


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Classic Pub Run :pac:, think it went a bit too much on the drinking tonight.

    Mof1hvo.png

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 18z control run.

    4nqDIPA.png

    Na8YD0K.png

    d0GR4pU.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS 18z ensemble means, still barely any change in them except rather colder.

    D6STb7Q.png

    j6tWL2k.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Well the 00z GFS op run wants to bring us a proper Blizzard out in FI -

    gfs-1-288.png?0

    gfs-0-288.png?0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    I’m not sure what you’re disagree’ing with

    'you get only a quarter of the information that’s on the gfs and 24hours is a long time in weather
    That wouldn’t mean what it’s done isn’t plausible
    It’s as likely as anything else it throws up'

    I just disagree that the ECM 12z output is as likely as anything else it has thrown up, it looked confused to me.

    Anyway it doesn't matter, as you say in the other thread, over analyzing this output run to run is futile at this range - better to stick to ensemble means for the general pattern and check everything is on track every day or two.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Have a look on www.weather.us and you can get the ECM in 3-6-hourly steps. The same on www.vedur.is


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  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Interesting, GFS has been steady as a rock bringing in a cold easterly with almost universal ensemble support in the 192 hours + timeframe.

    Caution needed through, ECM is not half as bullish.

    In recent winters we have seen models show these easterlies with full ensemble support time and time again in FI only to evaporate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Interesting, GFS has been steady as a rock bringing in a cold easterly with almost universal ensemble support in the 192 hours + timeframe.

    Caution needed through, ECM is not half as bullish.

    In recent winters we have seen models show these easterlies with full ensemble support time and time again in FI only to evaporate.

    In said Winters, you didn’t have things like SSW, negative NAO, minimal solar activity etc to back it up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I see GFS seems to have cold at day 9 every day.

    Its sure to arrive for the June Bank Holiday isnt it?

    At least it looks like becoming dry during the preceeding timeframe which after 7 months of non stop rain will be a relief to this part of the country.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,131 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is a decent enough position at 168 with high pressure firmly in control of the GIN (Greenland, Iceland, Norway) corridor and a chance of undercutting of our high from the Atlantic, no point looking any further to be honest.

    GFSOPEU06_168_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    pauldry wrote: »
    I see GFS seems to have cold at day 9 every day.

    Its sure to arrive for the June Bank Holiday isnt it?

    At least it looks like becoming dry during the preceeding timeframe which after 7 months of non stop rain will be a relief to this part of the country.

    Hear hear!
    Couldn't care less if it's 10C or -10C at this stage, so long as it's dry :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    GFS sticking to its guns for at least the 4th run in a row for an exceptionally cold (and snowy) FI. Astonishing charts but FI.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,131 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS Control run 192 - well locked in to continental cold

    GFSC00EU06_192_1.png

    Median

    GFSAVGEU06_192_1.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,131 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    NAVGEM has an easterly entrenched by 168 hrs

    navgem-0-168.png?14-12


    Very much up for grabs at the moment. Maybe some movement later from the UKMO/ECM op runs (both are a little disappointing).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Good GFS ensembles this morning but still as long way to go. Hopefully it will be a mid to high latitude cold break and it won't go the way of February 2012.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
    I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    gabeeg wrote: »
    GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
    I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.

    It’s basically the same as the GFS 18z from last night with low pressure all over the place whilst quite a block up to the north, very messy charts :p.


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