FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

George Sunsnow

Gfs Day 10 :eek: :eek:

Widdensushi

What height is that temperature for?

BLIZZARD7

Widdensushi wrote: »

What height is that temperature for?

850hpa temps.

typhoony

ECM not backtracking on this run, in fact even more progressive, the 850 +5 Isotherm shunting all the way into Scandinavia, not quite winter is over but doesn't look good to me

BLIZZARD7

typhoony wrote: »

ECM not backtracking on this run, in fact even more progressive, the 850 +5 Isotherm shunting all the way into Scandinavia, not quite winter is over but doesn't look good to me

Yeah horrible run, very flat our side of the hemisphere, I'm not convinced of this though. The PV should be scattered in pieces with atleast some northern blocking. ECM and GFS very different from +144hrs onwards.

The drop has started, -40m/s is record breaking...



Just not convinced of the ECM solution at all.

nacho libre

typhoony wrote: »

ECM not backtracking on this run, in fact even more progressive, the 850 +5 Isotherm shunting all the way into Scandinavia, not quite winter is over but doesn't look good to me

That could be down two reasons- either we are not going to have a quick reponse to the ssw or the warming is not sufficent to obliterate the piece of Vortex over the Hudson bay- which we need to stop sytems being flung towards us.
If it's the former, we could well have a cold and blocked March.

If it's the latter it just demonstrates that even with a record breaking ssw and mjo going to phase 8 it's still not enough to deliver snowy cold

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

That could be down two reasons- either we are not going to have a quick reponse to the ssw or the warming is not sufficent to obliterate the piece of Vortex over the Hudson bay- which we need to stop sytems being flung towards us.
If it's the former, we could well have a cold and blocked March.

If it's the latter it just demonstrates that even with a record breaking ssw and mjo going to phase 8 it's still not enough to deliver snowy cold

18z gfs finishes with a Bartlett high.... If there is no unanimity on an easterly by, say, Wednesday then my thoughts will turn to Spring at that stage.

patneve2

A poor GFS 18z but has to be said that it was a warm outlier on the latest ensembles. Still need some radical changes though, esp on the ECM

nacho libre

This would be a nice end to February;)

Hopefully the model output starts echoing the ensembles soon.

George Sunsnow

Gfs overnight is 15c warmer on day 10 over Ireland than yesterday’s 12Z
That’s not trustworthy output regardless of what happens

sryanbruen

It's clear that the GFS OP is a mild outlier from what the 06z ensembles show.

typhoony

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's clear that the GFS OP is a mild outlier from what the 06z ensembles show.

worryingly though that's the ECM and GFS on the last few runs that have signalled a change to milder weather, the ensembles will reflect this in next few runs

patneve2

GFS ensembles are still very good with the obvious exception of the operational as well as a few other perturbations. Very odd situation. Hopefully we'll have a clearer picture within the next 48 hrs.

Rebelbrowser

Sorry if I shouldn't do this but the below extract from another forum, and from an ex UK Met guy who posts there, seems worth noting...

"....I have to confess to being at odds with a lot of the euphoria on here and not really convinced by my ex colleagues at Exeter over this deep cold possibility from a point east of the UK. Staying colder than normal into the next 2 weeks I quite agree with but to me, most of what I can see from this forum and data we can all pick up from various weather centres suggests that the cold is going to come from a westerly not easterly point, more like NW and at times perhaps N. That is in the 14 day time scale from now. What happens beyond is not my sphere.

The 500 mb anomaly charts are not as solid as needed for a definite take but all 3 I use have consistently shown height rises across much of the northern part of our hemisphere but with not much, to me, to suggest that any upper or indeed surface ridging is going to come from other than the Iceland/Greenland area, again I stress in the next 14 days.

The upper heights from northern Russia all the way across into the far NW of N America mean that the surface lows may well end up being further south than currently. Behind one of these I suspect a burst of polar air is likely. Beyond that then I am uncertain how it may play out. If the expected effect on the Troposphere occurs in our area at such a time then the snowy wonderland so hoped for on here might well happen-I don't know.

Bit coldish, even cold at times is the weather for 2 weeks or so.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html ".

Don't shoot the messenger....

Oneiric 3

EC15 at day 15:



Something looks afoot.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

EC15 at day 15:

Something looks afoot.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/962974477826117632

sryanbruen

These are the GFS ensembles for sea level pressure at Reykjavik in Iceland. The second half of February clearly shows pressure is rising in that neck of the woods meaning northern blocking is trying to take place.

Not to mention, you can see the GFS OP on the weaker side of the pressure to no surprise given the synoptics. The OP run again is shown as an outlier.

gabeeg

The UKMO is starting to go the way of the GFS

sryanbruen

Here we go again on the GFS 12z :rolleyes:.

Rebelbrowser

And better still....

sryanbruen

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

And better still....

Very brief but beautiful easterly there.

George Sunsnow

Yeah the cold air advection going on to the south of that high and the warming to the north of it suggest to me that any high that initially places itself over or near us will be more inclined to move north,not down into Europe and do you know what that’s a recipe for,the freezer

pad199207

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

And better still....

More and More tease, the GFS it never stops

BLIZZARD7

UKMO looking better than the GFS at +144hrs

nacho libre

It looks like possibly a northerly or northeasterly airflow could develop after the easterly because the high can move north westwards with the cold air to the north west of the high plunging south. Low heights in Iberia is always a good sign if we want cold weather- it essentially is a flip of our default winter pattern. No doubt though the GFS will be back to showing southwesterly in the next run- just to tease us a bit more.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z ensemble means.

BLIZZARD7

Baby steps towards the GFS - much better than the sw'lys showing yesterday anyway...



Im pretty sure it's still wrong though...

pad199207

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Baby steps towards the GFS - much better than the sw'lys showing yesterday anyway...



Im pretty sure it's still wrong though...

Refuses to give up the fight later on though. This is going to be a fight to the death...

BLIZZARD7

It's slowly heading the right way, makes painful work of getting there though... if it improves as much as it has between yesterday and today by this time tomorrow we will be looking at nice charts by +168hrs

sryanbruen

I lied, I did look at the ECM yesterday . I really shouldn't.

Here's a comparison with ECM yesterday and tonight.