Mayo GAA Discussion - Part 3

Shurimgreat

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Stats from the Mayo Roscommon game.

37 scoring chances from play
18 scoring chances from play converted


Also a quick lesson in turning bookies odds into probability.

Currently Paddy Power have Mayo at 9/4 Kerry 1/2 and the Draw 15/2

In percentage terms this works out as

Mayo 31%
Kerry 67%
Draw 12%

The reason this doesn't add up to 100% is the overround or basically the bookies profit.

If you adjust it down to take out the bookies profit and get their true odds, it works out as

Mayo 28%
Kerry 61%
Draw 11%

In terms of the "favourites" versus "hot favourites" debate, I'd imagine that there is no way to accurately agree on that, but it's clear that Kerry are favourites and by a good margin.

A draw at 15/2 looks tempting. Very similar teams to 2014 and there wasn't a kick of the ball between them in both games until the very end. The difference was clearly with the ref that day. We get a proper ref this time around and it will still be a close game. It could be another epic! All things considered I am looking forward to it.

MayoAreMagic

Shurimgreat wrote: »

A. Its irrelevant what I do, its the manager who makes the changes.
B. None of us have any clue as to whether he is over his injury. If he is fully fit I would probably start him. But who do you take off, given there wasn't a single weak link against Roscommon? On the balance of probability I would start him, but the question is who do you drop and why?
C. Similar to B., we don't know if he's fully fit and over his injury. No point playing a player who isn't fully fit just because he's the great Lee Keegan.

So its not as straightforward as saying "We need to start Lee Keegan". Again you have to be nuanced and assess his fitness and how and where he can make the best impact on the game.

That is a different point though, you were talking about a modern game and bringing on strong players off the bench. Injuries weren't really mentioned. There is nothing modern about not playing an injured player either is there?
It is also a bit of a contraction - why would you be bringing on an injured player in the modern game?

km79

Keegan wasn't injured.
He had an infection.
He is fully fit .
He is one of the best players in Ireland .
He starts .
End of discussion

eagle eye

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But what point are you trying to make ?

22 points is a massive score difference.

Do you think that it’s not enough?

It will have no relevance to the Kerry game as they will be two totally different games.

Explain to me why Kerry did not beat Galway by more than 9, surely they left points out there as well?

On the Sunday Game after the Ulster Final one of the panel was asked to find a fault with Tyrone’s display (I can’t remember who it was could have been Dessie Dolan) .

They brought up a clip of a Tyrone fisting a ball over the bar in a game that was already won and said something to the tune of ‘if that was Kerry or Dublin they would have gone for goal, that’s the difference between Kerry and Dublin and the rest yada yada yada…”

Yet Kerry fisted points over the bar in the Munster final and no one said boo, and probably did the same v Galway

And you now find going for goals as a point of a criticism for a team that was just going through the motions ?

Going for goals when you have a big lead is a bad decision, you just keep building the lead. The reason this is an issue is because if you do it right every week then you will do it right when it's important. If you are doing the wrong thing on the easy day out then you don't know what to do when it's a tougher game.

yop

1400 posts in this thread in a month!!!! Dublin thread has 1300 since beginning of June! Either us Mayo lads can't stop talking about Mayo football or we get a lot of visitors!

Loafing Oaf

eagle eye wrote: »

Going for goals when you have a big lead is a bad decision, you just keep building the lead.

If a team has a mental bloc about shooting for goal it can help build their confidence IMO. I believe this Mayo team have been more willing to take a chance on a goal ever since sticking 5 past London in the 2013 Connacht Final...

Fr Tod Umptious

eagle eye wrote: »

Going for goals when you have a big lead is a bad decision, you just keep building the lead. The reason this is an issue is because if you do it right every week then you will do it right when it's important. If you are doing the wrong thing on the easy day out then you don't know what to do when it's a tougher game.

Looks like you spent the last 48 hours trying to come up with a negative about a 22 point win in a game that was over by half time and what you came up with was that they went for too many goals.

Shurimgreat

MayoAreMagic wrote: »

That is a different point though, you were talking about a modern game and bringing on strong players off the bench. Injuries weren't really mentioned. There is nothing modern about not playing an injured player either is there?
It is also a bit of a contraction - why would you be bringing on an injured player in the modern game?

Its a complicated subject which isn't helped by the fact you take one or two sentences from my original post and run with that. I made several points including about the old saying that you don't change a winning team. There's also a wider point I'd make about the modern game being a 20 or 21 player game, in that your subs often are as important as your starting 15. There's also the question of Keegans fitness. And finally its not me who decides, its the manager. I wouldn't be shocked if Keegan started from the bench all things considered. It wouldn't be the end of the world as some posters seem to want to portray it as.

Shurimgreat

km79 wrote: »

Keegan wasn't injured.
He had an infection.
He is fully fit .
He is one of the best players in Ireland .
He starts .
End of discussion

And who are you dropping from the Roscommon replay ?
And who will you put Keegan marking?
Or where do you put him?
And who are your sources for him being fully fit?

flasher0030

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Its a complicated subject which isn't helped by the fact you take one or two sentences from my original post and run with that. I made several points including about the old saying that you don't change a winning team. There's also a wider point I'd make about the modern game being a 20 or 21 player game, in that your subs often are as important as your starting 15. There's also the question of Keegans fitness. And finally its not me who decides, its the manager. I wouldn't be shocked if Keegan started from the bench all things considered. It wouldn't be the end of the world as some posters seem to want to portray it as.

Man, you really need to change your username - substitute "useless" for "great". Seems like you’re not up to speed at all on football issues. You would have to be hiding under a rock to be in the dark on Keegan's woes. It was to do with a blister on his foot. He’s not injured. He was ready to come on if needed. No concerns for semi-final. Why do you keep on about his fitness?

And on the issue of benching Keegan, there IS something wrong with keeping a brilliant player as a substitute and bringing him on when the dust settles and when manager has analysed how things are going. What Einstein manager has done that? You say you wouldn’t be surprised if Keegan starts from the bench. If Rochford started Keegan as sub against Kerry (unless injured), he would be outdoing his goalkeeping controversy from last year’s final. He’s not a fool.

Shurimgreat

flasher0030 wrote: »

Man, you really need to change your username - substitute "useless" for "great". Seems like you’re not up to speed at all on football issues. You would have to be hiding under a rock to be in the dark on Keegan's woes. It was to do with a blister on his foot. He’s not injured. He was ready to come on if needed. No concerns for semi-final. Why do you keep on about his fitness?

And on the issue of benching Keegan, there IS something wrong with keeping a brilliant player as a substitute and bringing him on when the dust settles and when manager has analysed how things are going. What Einstein manager has done that? You say you wouldn’t be surprised if Keegan starts from the bench. If Rochford started Keegan as sub against Kerry (unless injured), he would be outdoing his goalkeeping controversy from last year’s final. He’s not a fool.

FFS. I wouldn't be surprised if any player starts on the bench, it all depends on whether they are fit or not. For all we know he could get injured between now and then or not be fully fit. You seem to think a player who presumably missed training sessions and also a full game can come back 100%. It doesn't work that way.

Stop getting your knickers in a twist about Keegan starting or not. You're almost obsessed with it now.

eagle eye

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Looks like you spent the last 48 hours trying to come up with a negative about a 22 point win in a game that was over by half time and what you came up with was that they went for too many goals.

I said it during and after the game on Monday. I didn't just come up with it as you are trying to suggest.

You just want to make it appear that I'm trying to troll here. There is an issue to discuss here but you don't want to, probably because you don't understand.

I said they changed things after the first game against Roscommon, the defense was better they trapped the Roscommon players but didn't foul. They gave away a lot of senseless frees in the first game in their own half. If Roscommon has realised it quickly enough they would have won the first day but they didn't and kept kick high balls in to their forwards which ended up with Mayo clearing the ball.

Mayo are normally exceptional defensively and the last day was one of the first times we seen that this year. The problem has always been the attack and I'm pointing out a major issue which has been left unresolved. This isn't the first time this has happened, they've done it many times in the past. Then you see them come up against the likes of Dublin where they have the chance to win but because they aren't used to taking easy points they end up scoring poorly on the day.

flasher0030

Shurimgreat wrote: »

And who are you dropping from the Roscommon replay ?
And who will you put Keegan marking?
Or where do you put him?
And who are your sources for him being fully fit?

It has been suggested that Andy Moran could make way for the Donaghy factor i.e. Brendan Harrison to mark Donaghy, supported by “big, strong fellow” like Seamie O’Shea or Donal Vaughan. Would be very tough for Moran. But can’t see him getting any change out of Enright, Killian Young, Griffin etc. And having A O’Shea, C O’Connor inside supported by Doherty, D O’Connor, and the running of Higgins, Boyle, Keegan, Durkan. One issue there is lack of height at midfield if Parsons and Keegan taking up those roles. And can’t have A O’Shea running out from inside forward line for every Kerry kickout. Maybe have Seamie o’Shea push up for the Kerry kick-outs and then drop back straight away on Donaghy.

Blackjack

Shurimgreat wrote: »

And who are you dropping from the Roscommon replay ?
And who will you put Keegan marking?
Or where do you put him?
And who are your sources for him being fully fit?

I can take some of these:

Drop Durcan or Barrett. Neither deserve to be dropped but if I had a choice of putting keegan ahead of either, one of them would go. Either are an excellent option to bring off the bench too.
I would put Keegan on Buckley.
sources: Rochford's post match interview, Mayo News, 3rd hand information from people very close to the player himself.

Shurimgreat

eagle eye wrote: »

I said it during and after the game on Monday. I didn't just come up with it as you are trying to suggest.

You just want to make it appear that I'm trying to troll here. There is an issue to discuss here but you don't want to, probably because you don't understand.

I said they changed things after the first game against Roscommon, the defense was better they trapped the Roscommon players but didn't foul. They gave away a lot of senseless frees in the first game in their own half. If Roscommon has realised it quickly enough they would have won the first day but they didn't and kept kick high balls in to their forwards which ended up with Mayo clearing the ball.

Mayo are normally exceptional defensively and the last day was one of the first times we seen that this year. The problem has always been the attack and I'm pointing out a major issue which has been left unresolved. This isn't the first time this has happened, they've done it many times in the past. Then you see them come up against the likes of Dublin where they have the chance to win but because they aren't used to taking easy points they end up scoring poorly on the day.

I'd agree with some of your points. Ultimately we can't derive much from the Roscommon game. The Kerry game will be a completely different kettle of fish and there is no way we would be allowed waltz through for goals as easily or the forwards have as much time and space to kick points. At the other end the Kerry forwards are proven on the big occasion. Its going to be a different much tighter game. I would agree that if we return to being wasteful on front of goals we can forget about winning.

km79

The front page of mayo news sport supplement literally has the headline "Keegan fit to face Kerry"
Includes quotes from Rochford saying he would have been fully fit by today .
But sure you are great

Shurimgreat

flasher0030 wrote: »

It has been suggested that Andy Moran could make way for the Donaghy factor i.e. Brendan Harrison to mark Donaghy, supported by “big, strong fellow” like Seamie O’Shea or Donal Vaughan. Would be very tough for Moran. But can’t see him getting any change out of Enright, Killian Young, Griffin etc. And having A O’Shea, C O’Connor inside supported by Doherty, D O’Connor, and the running of Higgins, Boyle, Keegan, Durkan. One issue there is lack of height at midfield if Parsons and Keegan taking up those roles. And can’t have A O’Shea running out from inside forward line for every Kerry kickout. Maybe have Seamie o’Shea push up for the Kerry kick-outs and then drop back straight away on Donaghy.

You had me until the last line. Its a pure contradiction. You want him to run out the field to challenge their kickouts? And what if he misses one? Who is left marking Donaghy? You can't just leave him to his own devices, there has to be a big player near him all the time. It only takes a few seconds for him to do damage as we well know. I'd favour Vaughan to mark Donaghy or else SOS full time marking him. I suggested SOS as a makeshift Full Back in an earlier post but no-one was buying it. That said we need a big strong guy in there who won't be shoved out of the way easily and will at least compete and make it awkward on Donaghy.

MayoAreMagic

Shurimgreat wrote: »

Its a complicated subject which isn't helped by the fact you take one or two sentences from my original post and run with that. I made several points including about the old saying that you don't change a winning team. There's also a wider point I'd make about the modern game being a 20 or 21 player game, in that your subs often are as important as your starting 15. There's also the question of Keegans fitness. And finally its not me who decides, its the manager. I wouldn't be shocked if Keegan started from the bench all things considered. It wouldn't be the end of the world as some posters seem to want to portray it as.

I selected the paragraph of your original post where you addressed the point about keegan. Surely that is pretty reasonable? The subsequent points where you change your stance to some pretence of an injury we all know doesn't exist, wasn't something I was really bothered about. You seem to be flip-flopping between the two now - again referencing the modern game.

So what we can take from your points is he is injured and you would bring him on. Let me ask, what is modern about bringing on a guy who is injured?

Either that or he isn't injured and you wouldn't start him? Which is a joke.

Or, as you have already accepted, you would start him - in which case, why are you still making this point about not starting and injuries?


Bottom line, the guy isn't going to be injured for Kerry, he will be fully fit. That has already been confirmed in the local paper.

As for the old cliche about not changing a winning team - so much for a expressing a nuanced view. If that was the case we should be fielding the same team that started against derry...

Shurimgreat

km79 wrote: »

The front page of mayo news sport supplement literally has the headline "Keegan fit to face Kerry"
Includes quotes from Rochford saying he would have been fully fit by today .
But sure you are great

Jeez you are wasted here, you should be a comedian. :rolleyes:

flasher0030

Shurimgreat wrote: »

FFS. I wouldn't be surprised if any player starts on the bench, it all depends on whether they are fit or not. For all we know he could get injured between now and then or not be fully fit. You seem to think a player who presumably missed training sessions and also a full game can come back 100%. It doesn't work that way.

Stop getting your knickers in a twist about Keegan starting or not. You're almost obsessed with it now.

Shure any player could get injured between now and matchday! What’s the relevance of that? Unless you suffer from extreme paranoia, the manager (and supporters) should at least approach the match on the premise that the team will remain uninjured. If something does happen, deal with it then. Not on the basis that Rochford benches Lee Keegan because he might get injured in the next week and a half. Tom Parsons was injured. Started in Midfield on Monday. Just out of curiosity, would you have started him.

I’m not obsessed with Lee Keegan starting or not. To be honest it wouldn’t even have entered my head until you mentioned it. But I think I am obsessed with analysing how the hell it even entered your head in the first place. It’s bewildering.

Shurimgreat

MayoAreMagic wrote: »

I selected the paragraph of your original post where you addressed the point about keegan. Surely that is pretty reasonable? The subsequent points where you change your stance to some pretence of an injury we all know doesn't exist, wasn't something I was really bothered about. You seem to be flip-flopping between the two now - again referencing the modern game.

So what we can take from your points is he is injured and you would bring him on. Let me ask, what is modern about bringing on a guy who is injured?

Either that or he isn't injured and you wouldn't start him? Which is a joke.

Or, as you have already accepted, you would start him - in which case, why are you still making this point about not starting and injuries?


Bottom line, the guy isn't going to be injured for Kerry, he will be fully fit. That has already been confirmed in the local paper.

As for the old cliche about not changing a winning team - so much for a expressing a nuanced view. If that was the case we should be fielding the same team that started against derry...

OK my last post on Keegan, as its grown a life of its own now.

I said there is nothing wrong with the option of starting any player including Keegan on the bench and bringing them on at the right time. All teams do and have done that. Dublin did it with great effect with McManamon. They regularly leave some of their top forwards on the bench and bring them on. There is nothing wrong with rotating players, its one of the secrets to Jim Gavins success.

Contrast it with Mayo, who usually start with their best players, many of who generally run out of steam at the 50/60 minute mark eg Boyle, SOS, A. Moran.
While other teams are finishing strongly, we are finishing with a weakened team. Maybe we could learn from this, instead of sticking to the usual "start your best 15 and hope for the best at the end".

Its a valid argument to say we should finish as strong as we start.

And that's all I have to say on the Lee Keegan issue.

keane2097

I thought the posts in the Kerry forum about dropping JOD were bad this morning.

flasher0030

Shurimgreat wrote: »

You had me until the last line. Its a pure contradiction. You want him to run out the field to challenge their kickouts? And what if he misses one? Who is left marking Donaghy? You can't just leave him to his own devices, there has to be a big player near him all the time. It only takes a few seconds for him to do damage as we well know. I'd favour Vaughan to mark Donaghy or else SOS full time marking him. I suggested SOS as a makeshift Full Back in an earlier post but no-one was buying it. That said we need a big strong guy in there who won't be shoved out of the way easily and will at least compete and make it awkward on Donaghy.

Ya, I understand the point about isolating Donaghy, and had thought of that. The caveat being that Mayo attempt to break the ball. If Kerry win it, then all our resources go into pressuring Kerry to delay any punt into their full forward line to allow us time to get back and reorganise. It’s a loose plan and not properly thought out. That’s what our management get paid for. I mean – get reimbursed for.
When I was writing a previous post, I had actually included a note about Keegan replacing Durken or Barrett. Similar to a point made in one of the recent posts. But I think a key point will be our half-backs outrunning their half-forwards – if it’s Buckley, Walsh and Mike Geaney. But of course this os not lost on Fitzmaurice, and I wojuldn’t be surprised if he starts Stephen O’Brien and Darren O’Sullivan in the half forwards, and has Buckley around the middle with Maher and Moran to try to completely dominate midfield.

km79

Has cass been in with any traffic updates ?

flasher0030

Shurimgreat wrote: »

OK my last post on Keegan, as its grown a life of its own now.

I said there is nothing wrong with the option of starting any player including Keegan on the bench and bringing them on at the right time. All teams do and have done that. Dublin did it with great effect with McManamon. They regularly leave some of their top forwards on the bench and bring them on. There is nothing wrong with rotating players, its one of the secrets to Jim Gavins success.

Contrast it with Mayo, who usually start with their best players, many of who generally run out of steam at the 50/60 minute mark eg Boyle, SOS, A. Moran.
While other teams are finishing strongly, we are finishing with a weakened team. Maybe we could learn from this, instead of sticking to the usual "start your best 15 and hope for the best at the end".

Its a valid argument to say we should finish as strong as we start.

And that's all I have to say on the Lee Keegan issue.

But if you’re leaving your best players off at the beginning, then you are not starting strong . And therefore vulnerable to be overrun in the first quarter. You can have it every way. Motivation and mentally wise, it’s a lot more difficult to be clawing back a 10 point deficit in the last quarter (when you are finishing with your best team as you say), than it is to be staying with a team from the beginning.

Dublin situation is completely different and you know that. Jim Gavin feels the Dublin forwards starting are better than McMenamen. And for some reason (maybe nerves or something), McMenamen performs better when introduced into the fray than when starting.

PARlance

keane2097 wrote: »

I thought the posts in the Kerry forum about dropping JOD were bad this morning.

Hey, it's your bloody fault.

A Kerryman and a Dub come in this morning saying how we should be confident and there's nothing wrong with taking things for granted....
And Shurthenextthing is we're being told that Mayo people are expecting to hammer ye!

MayoAreMagic

Shurimgreat wrote: »

OK my last post on Keegan, as its grown a life of its own now.

I said there is nothing wrong with the option of starting any player including Keegan on the bench and bringing them on at the right time. All teams do and have done that. Dublin did it with great effect with McManamon. They regularly leave some of their top forwards on the bench and bring them on. There is nothing wrong with rotating players, its one of the secrets to Jim Gavins success.

Contrast it with Mayo, who usually start with their best players, many of who generally run out of steam at the 50/60 minute mark eg Boyle, SOS, A. Moran.
While other teams are finishing strongly, we are finishing with a weakened team. Maybe we could learn from this, instead of sticking to the usual "start your best 15 and hope for the best at the end".

Its a valid argument to say we should finish as strong as we start.

And that's all I have to say on the Lee Keegan issue.

McManamon isn't one of Dublin's main men though. Do you see them dropping Cluxton, Fenton or Kilkenny any time soon?

Bunny Colvin

I think Kerry will find us a tough nut to crack whatever happens. We never ship big beatings and usually perform well in these types of matches. I see Kerry as being a little over hyped, while Mayo have been disregarded this year, our campaign last year should have earned us more respect. Looking at the quality we have all over the pitch means we'll never be far off anyone.

Rochford's team talk will be 'pick up where you left off'. Run at them and be brave on the ball. We should be out to win the All-Ireland this year, it might not happen but that should be the mentality.

Blackjack

Bunny Colvin wrote: »

I think Kerry will find us a tough nut to crack whatever happens. We never ship big beatings and usually perform well in these types of matches. I see Kerry as being a little over hyped, while Mayo have been disregarded this year, our campaign last year should have earned us more respect. Looking at the quality we have all over the pitch means we'll never be far off anyone.

Rochford's team talk will be 'pick up where you left off'. Run at them and be brave on the ball. We should be out to win the All-Ireland this year, it might not happen but that should be the mentality.

I don't think Kerry will be that worried to be honest. I think they will have had a bit more to think about given how we have changed from the defensive, slow build-up team to something I last observed in 2014. Like Roscommon, they may have felt such an approach was beyond this team, now they know it isn't, and will plan accordingly.
Also - I certainly hope that the Mayo management aren't obsessing as some fans are solely on Donaghy. There will be 13 other outfield players such as J'OD, Geaney x 2, Buckley, Moran and quite a few others that need to be concentrated on. They will need to be given an equal amount of attention as to how to prevent them getting ball and if they get the ball, how to get it off them or prevent them from doing anything useful with it. And that's just aside from what we're going to do when we get the ball ourselves, and what our tactics will be.

jr86

To be honest I'm not getting this Kerry overhyped stuff

I think it's a bit of wishful thinking to be honest. They're rated about right overall I feel, the second best side in Ireland at the minute all things said