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Irish Brexit

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    You're choosing to ignore, that I was replying to a discussion about imbalances caused by monetary policy - and that I was pulling someone up for making a false comparison.

    All posters here are saying in response to me is "there is a mechanism" - while ignoring the vast differences in magnitude (as a percent of GDP) between that mechanism, and what they are comparing it to.

    This will just become a broken record discussion of "there is A mechanism" - while studiously ignoring what makes it a false comparison - so I'm out, there's little else that's useful to say there.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    You're choosing to ignore, that I was replying to a discussion about imbalances caused by monetary policy - and that I was pulling someone up for making a false comparison.

    All posters here are saying in response to me is "there is a mechanism" - while ignoring the vast differences in magnitude (as a percent of GDP) between that mechanism, and what they are comparing it to.

    This will just become a broken record discussion of "there is A mechanism" - while studiously ignoring what makes it a false comparison - so I'm out, there's little else that's useful to say there.

    I'm not choosing to ignore that. I'm refusing to follow you down your rabbit hole of finding a carefully-chosen basis on which to criticise the Euro. You're right: the UK could use fiscal policy to spend a third of its budget on wealth distribution. But it doesn't - and the EU does.

    So yes, it's true to say that if you studiously ignore every other argument on the topic, the absence of common fiscal policy is a flaw with the Euro. But if you're studiously ignoring every other argument on the topic, you're not exactly making a compelling case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    All posters here are saying in response to me is "there is a mechanism" - while ignoring the vast differences in magnitude (as a percent of GDP) between that mechanism, and what they are comparing it to.
    I'm not ignoring anything - you're comparing a third of the EU's budget with a third of the UK's budget for some very strange reason? The UK very clearly does not spend one third of its budget directly addressing regional imbalances, does it? Given the fact that the UK has within it some very poor regions, it's clearly not devoting anywhere near enough resources to address those imbalances. So your comparison is utterly meaningless.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    murphaph wrote: »
    And France will be told by the rest of the EU to PFO.


    Surely that should be AVFF? (Allez vous faire foutre) :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man



    Of course this would all be greatly simplified if we would just see sense and return to the UK or at least Commonwealth fold. This is a line that is going to be promoted with increasing shrillness as events unfold.

    I think we can expect a lot more assinine articles like this from the likes of the odious Mr Heffer. And others. Let's not be fooled, eh?


    And another one!!

    This time it's Liam Halligan, writing in The Telegraph about how Ireland may fancy its chances outside the EU.

    He thinks that "clever people in Ireland" are beginning to realise that following Britian out of the EU into a trans Atlantic relationship with America would be a good idea. He bases his arguments on the paper written by Ray Bassett (bit late to the game isn't he?) which advocates considering something like that.

    Isn't it nice of so many conservative British columnists (Heffer, Phillips, Halligan) to be so concerned about Ireland's welfare and so keen that we exit the EU? As a prelude, even, to reintegrating into the United Kingdom?

    They are such big-hearted people that they always look out for their smaller weaker neighbours. Bless them!

    Either that or they are suddenly afraid of an EU that has them effectively surrounded with a member state, integrated into the EU whole located along most of Britain's Western Seaboard. Something that British strategists have worked to avoid for 500 years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    I'd say Britain's Brexit buffoonery has probably strengthened Irish support for being in the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    I'd say Britain's Brexit buffoonery has probably strengthened Irish support for being in the EU.

    The ironic thing is Halligan isn't shy of claiming his Irish roots (when it suits him). With that in mind, his article is beyond astounding. At least the other buffoons have no Irish connections whatsoever (to the best of my knowledge).

    As you've said yourself, if anything more and more people in Ireland (fortunately) want to say in the EU, keeping part of the EU is after all a cornerstone of all the major parties now that even the Shinners have seen the light. The only anti-EU party or grouping is the Solidarity/PBP or whatever they're calling themselves these days, and they get just 4% of the popular vote.


  • Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 21,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭Agent Smith


    We should stay in the EU out of spite, if nothing else....


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    We should stay in the EU out of spite, if nothing else....

    Well that's a nice idea. But it's not the same as a good idea.

    This is a serious business and we've got to take it seriously. But like I said earlier: leaving the EU should be Option Z.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    More propaganda by a certain Ray Bassett in the Torygraph this evening.

    The Telegraph is rapidly becoming a complete rag. They're getting completely desperate at this stage, hardly surprising as the UK is the slowest growing economy while the EU is powering ahead this year (although admittedly it's coming off a very low base) and the pound is now less than €1.10 (before Brexit it was €1.32 and this time two years ago it was worth more than €1.40).

    If they really cared about Ireland then they wouldn't be advocating the Hard Brexit they're espousing either.

    Of course the EU is shooting down the plan because the UK wants to leave the customs union, you blithering idiot! How can they possibly allow the UK to be simultaneously in but out at the same time, sure if they allow that we might as well all have a half in half out approach to the customs union and trade deals?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/eu-becoming-less-hospitable-ireland-time-joined-britain-leaving/


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,544 ✭✭✭Samaris


    What on earth happened to the Telegraph? It used to be a generally respectable paper, but in the last..two years? One year? It appears to have lost its marbles (and all of its respectability).

    Did Murdoch buy it or something?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 417 ✭✭Mancomb Seepgood


    Samaris wrote: »
    What on earth happened to the Telegraph? It used to be a generally respectable paper, but in the last..two years? One year? It appears to have lost its marbles (and all of its respectability).

    Did Murdoch buy it or something?

    Agreed, I never agreed with the right-wing politics of the Telegraph but it was a pretty reliable newspaper that was a lot better than many of it's competitors. It's definitely gone down the alternative facts road lately though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Agreed, I never agreed with the right-wing politics of the Telegraph but it was a pretty reliable newspaper that was a lot better than many of it's competitors. It's definitely gone down the alternative facts road lately though.

    I completely agree, it used to be a perfectly respectable middle of the road Tory paper, I enjoyed reading it before partly to understand the British mindset (since I live there) but also because I am a natural Conservative supporter - the pragmatic and sensible Ruth Davidson/Anna Soubry/Ken Clarke end of it, not the bonkers crazy Theresa May/Liam Fox/Boris end of it that's running it now and destroying the UK.

    However, the Telegraph has gone bonkers since the referendum. I can't remember the last time I saw an article from a strong Remain supporter or anything critical of Brexit. While they obviously backed leave, they're not even trying to be reasonably impartial these days and the recent comments about Ireland are both pathetic and insulting - and I'm as big a West Brit as you'll find (a term I hate the usage of - it's the 21st century after all and it's time we took the chips off our shoulders, especially as we've more in common with them than we care to realise/admit). The fact that some of them are from the likes of Halligan or Basset with their Irish connections make it even worse, it's one thing about those with Irish connections not knowing anything about the country, quite another when people do know Ireland and get it so spectacularly wrong.

    I would say that support for the EU has gone up here if anything since the EU referendum in the UK, as it has in the rest of Europe.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    I would say that support for the EU has gone up here if anything since the EU referendum in the UK, as it has in the rest of Europe.
    Have you got any citation on this? Certainly no Eurozone member country seems to have grown more ready to leave the Eurozone (let alone EU) - but I haven't noticed anything that indicates countries disposition towards the EU, positively growing to a notable degree.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Have you got any citation on this? Certainly no Eurozone member country seems to have grown more ready to leave the Eurozone (let alone EU) - but I haven't noticed anything that indicates countries disposition towards the EU, positively growing to a notable degree.
    Just Google "88% Ireland EU". Example result:
    https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

    It's a fantasy to suggest Ireland is anywhere close to leaving the EU. It's probably the most pro-EU country of all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    Is there a past poll to compare that against? i.e. did less than 88% hold the same view in the recent past? (which is what would be needed, to show that support has grown)

    Again, there's no notable shift towards leaving (88% favouring staying proves that, indeed) - just the statement about support for the EU growing, requires the above.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Is there a past poll to compare that against? i.e. did less than 88% hold the same view in the recent past? (which is what would be needed, to show that support has grown)

    Again, there's no notable shift towards leaving (88% favouring staying proves that, indeed) - just the statement about support for the EU growing, requires the above.

    Eurobarometer 87 (2017) showed a two percentage point increase in the percentage of the population with a favourable view of the EU over Eurobarometer 86 (2016).

    And yes, Ireland is the most pro-EU country in the Union.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    The date of the referendum was June 23 2016 - here's a table of the Eurobarometer results:
    http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/gridChart//themeKy/19/groupKy/102/countries/IE/savFiles/555,1,54,554,6,11,47,632,702,5,184,521,663,698,805,8,37,850,33,41,3,7,49,186,190,196,646,838,9,10,187,197/periodStart/042000/periodEnd/052017

    In May 2016 it was 57.51% positive, the latest has 58.28% - a difference of 0.77% - the sample sizes the Eurobarometer uses (at bottom of this document) lead to a margin of error which is greater than 0.77%, i.e. the change doesn't exceed the margin of error, it's inconclusive.

    Negative opinion has reduced more significantly though - but otherwise it's quite fair to say that opinion hasn't changed a whole lot - which is easier to see in this chart: (click 'months')
    http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/lineChart//themeKy/19/groupKy/102/countries/IE/savFiles/702,698,805,850,838/periodStart/042000/periodEnd/052017


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,876 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    The date of the referendum was June 23 2016 - here's a table of the Eurobarometer results:
    http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/gridChart//themeKy/19/groupKy/102/countries/IE/savFiles/555,1,54,554,6,11,47,632,702,5,184,521,663,698,805,8,37,850,33,41,3,7,49,186,190,196,646,838,9,10,187,197/periodStart/042000/periodEnd/052017

    In May 2016 it was 57.51% positive, the latest has 58.28% - a difference of 0.77% - the sample sizes the Eurobarometer uses (at bottom of this document) lead to a margin of error which is greater than 0.77%, i.e. the change doesn't exceed the margin of error, it's inconclusive.

    Negative opinion has reduced more significantly though - but otherwise it's quite fair to say that opinion hasn't changed a whole lot - which is easier to see in this chart: (click 'months')
    http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/lineChart//themeKy/19/groupKy/102/countries/IE/savFiles/702,698,805,850,838/periodStart/042000/periodEnd/052017

    You don't believe in the wake of Brexit and the hair brained nonsense coming out of Britain right now that the Irish are more pro Europe than before.....

    Come on man, causality.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    Why would I base a belief on something within the margins of statistical error?

    Objectively - by the stats - opinions haven't changed a great deal - negative sentiment has very slightly softened just.

    It makes sense, too - we'll have to wait for the actual consequences of Brexit to develop into real/live political/economic repercussions (we're just watching the storm gather at the moment, it hasn't hit yet...), before we'll see how it really affects public opinion towards the EU.

    There's going to be a big public blame game going on as well, as both the EU/Britain jostle over who is to blame for the negative effects towards Ireland - and how the public sees that, is not going to be led by the media narratives, nor what posters here view as logical or 'the correct (i.e. pro-EU) answer'.

    If the EU has to force Ireland to put together some form of border control, instead of the UK doing this (not out of realm of possibility, as the UK won't want easy targets for dissidents), then you could easily see public opinion towards the EU taking a hit, as that may be a mark against the EU in the blame game.


    TLDR - opinion hasn't significantly changed post-Brexit yet - we won't know in advance how public opinion will shift - we have to wait and see how Brexit actually gets implemented and plays out, before we'll see.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,202 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    then you could easily see public opinion towards the EU taking a hit, as that may be a mark against the EU in the blame game.

    Wishful thinking, this has always been seen as the UK causing problems and their current behaviour just confirms it. It would take a very concerted campaign to move Irish sentiment even slightly.

    The border arrangements will have very little impact for Irish people outside the border area, where as the bail out etc.. impacted most people in some way. And yet Ireland remains the post pro EU state around. If that did not change people, the border issues are not likely to either.

    Even the old republican sentiment of 30 or 40 yeas ago that might drive this kind of attitude is history as well. We're three generations away from the men of 1916, at this stage it is our history not our politics.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    Where did I 'wish' anything? During the middle of the crisis years since the bailout, Ireland was fairly average in terms of EU support - the uptick is over the past 3 years.

    The trends of EU support seem to, understandably, be driven by economic conditions more than anything else - I'd expect that to continue to be the case, as Brexit plays out (and we've no idea how it will play out, yet).


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,202 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Where did I 'wish' anything? During the middle of the crisis years since the bailout, Ireland was fairly average in terms of EU support - the uptick is over the past 3 years.

    And at no point did support to a level that could be considered a backlash against the EU. In fact the vote on the fiscal compact should be considered an endorsement even in the middle of the crisis.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    Why are you so defensive of the EU? It's silly the way people are so sensitive about anything less than complete adoration and embellishment of the EU's popularity - and interpret everything that corrects inaccurate statements embellishing the EU's status, as a backlash against the EU.

    Positive public opinion towards the EU actually dropped, and negative public opinion rose after the Fiscal Compact referendum...you've got links to the raw stats on the public opinion polls on the thread, you should fact-check your statements...
    http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/chartType/lineChart//themeKy/19/groupKy/102/countries/IE/savFiles/702,698,805,850,838/periodStart/042000/periodEnd/052017

    Stats compiled by the EU themselves, contradict your statements - and other peoples. The stats are public and readily available - Use. Them. - rather than having other people correct your (and others) embellished statements all the time.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Why are you so defensive of the EU?

    Because its value vastly exceeds what can be expressed in a jumped-up popularity contest, despite how determined some people are to blame it for all the world's ills.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    See that's exactly what I mean about defensiveness. In the exchange over the last couple of days, I didn't even blame the EU for anything - I asked for citations, for people to back up their embellished statements regarding the EU - which turned out to nearly all be either false or inconclusive.

    Fact checking EU popularity embellishment (which is contradicted by the EU's own stats), apparently equals someone trying to "blame it [the EU] for all the world's ills" - the level of defensiveness coupled with fluffing of the EU's reputation when it's in contradiction with the stats, just gives the impression of a general lack of objectivity in discussion surrounding the EU around here (I mean, the raw stats - as objective as you can get in the circumstances - are contradicting peoples statements, and they are just digging in more and more, and backslapping...).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    A good time to note Mairead McGuinness's comments today - vice president of the EU Parliament, and Fine Gael politician (as much as I dislike that party...) - stating (headline) that Brexit will "have bigger impact on Anglo Irish relations than Easter Rising" - she also says:
    ...
    Ms McGuinness also called for a national debate to take place in Ireland on the future of Europe.
    "Brexit, as profound as it is, must not be allowed sap all energies and efforts," she said.
    "We need to start looking beyond Brexit to what type of Europe we want to see in the future.
    "Scepticism and indeed cynicism about the EU was certainly fuelled by the economic crisis.
    "And mistakes were made giving rise to justifiable concerns among citizens which must be addressed in any discussion about the future of the EU."
    Ms McGuinness urged all elements of society to get involved in a debate on the shape of Europe in the future.
    ...
    http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-will-have-bigger-impact-on-anglo-irish-relations-than-easter-rising-802730.html

    We won't be having that debate, in the presence of reflexive defensiveness and embellishment of the EU, as it simply won't be possible. There needs to be a greater role for criticism of the EU (which is not the same as advocating abandonment of it), including among its most ardent supporters - so that it can be improved.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    See that's exactly what I mean about defensiveness. In the exchange over the last couple of days, I didn't even blame the EU for anything - I asked for citations, for people to back up their embellished statements regarding the EU - which turned out to nearly all be either false or inconclusive.

    Fact checking EU popularity embellishment (which is contradicted by the EU's own stats), apparently equals someone trying to "blame it [the EU] for all the world's ills" - the level of defensiveness coupled with fluffing of the EU's reputation when it's in contradiction with the stats, just gives the impression of a general lack of objectivity in discussion surrounding the EU around here (I mean, the raw stats - as objective as you can get in the circumstances - are contradicting peoples statements, and they are just digging in more and more, and backslapping...).

    Calm down, not everything is about you. You can't deny that the EU is a favourite whipping boy of national governments throughout the Union.

    The reason many of us are defensive of the EU is because so very, very, very many people attack it at every possible opportunity. The EU's biggest real problem (as opposed to the myriad fictional problems so many people think it has) is that it's an unsexy, functional, somewhat bureaucratic force for good.

    We've seen it in the Brexit "debate": the remain side was criticised for not putting forward a positive message about the EU. The problem is, "positive" in this day of nanosecond attention spans means "headline-grabbingly exciting". Nobody wants to hear about all the good things the EU does, because they're fundamentally boring. People want to hear about the bad things the EU does, even when they are works of total fiction.

    I'm not even talking about straight bananas, even though that particular bizarre fairy tale still has currency in the UK (and, by extension, here). I'm talking about the idea that our property bubble was the Eurozone's fault, because we couldn't set our own interest rates. The fact that the government of the time had any number of fiscal controls it could have implemented but chose not to doesn't matter: the EU is a convenient scapegoat.

    So, frankly, I don't really care whether or not the EU is "popular"; I care whether or not it is good for us. When people learn to think about things, I'll start caring more about how they feel about them.

    eta: As for there being a role for criticism of the EU, when the EU's critics start loudly calling out the stupid fictions about the Union for what they are, I'll be more inclined to listen to their genuine grievances, but as long as they are prepared to tolerate the "ban on powerful vacuum cleaners" nonsense as useful idiocy, they don't deserve to have their legitimate concerns heard.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    None of that excuses trying to embellish the EU's image with false claims, and then getting ultra-defensive when EU-provided stats are used to contradict those claims.

    Just because you perceive there to be a bias against the EU - does not justify pushing for a bias in favour of the EU.

    The faults with the Euro and the monetary system assigned to it, are not scapegoats, they are relevant criticisms of the EU which are critically important for discussion - but neither are they relevant to this thread, so I won't go into it due to likely mod action - that's precisely one of the areas where pro-EU advocates should be welcoming extensive criticism, in order to better the EU - except it's stifled instead.

    I also don't understand all the errata you're bringing in to the thread either - bannana/vaccum regulations - it's simple: People made claims about the EU's popularity in this thread, which were then undermined or rendered inconclusive, by stats provided by the EU themselves - that's pretty much the end of it, it's not a grand attack by anyone against the EU - it's correcting false claims aimed at puffing-up the EU's image.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 234 ✭✭KyussBeeshop


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    eta: As for there being a role for criticism of the EU, when the EU's critics start loudly calling out the stupid fictions about the Union for what they are, I'll be more inclined to listen to their genuine grievances, but as long as they are prepared to tolerate the "ban on powerful vacuum cleaners" nonsense as useful idiocy, they don't deserve to have their legitimate concerns heard.
    Just going over this again this morning - does this mean that if you perceive that someone falls into this camp, you will shout down even their legitimate arguments critical of the EU, just due to your perception of them?

    <SNIP>


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