Irish Brexit

BabyCheeses · 22-02-2017 01:45AM

enricoh wrote: »

Dunno if we will or not but all our politicians have ruled it out categorically.
U' d think that enda n co would have the cop on to play a bit of poker with the eu and say that if our interests are not being met we would leave - ie attacks on the 12.5%. Etc.
Actually no, come to think of it I don't expect enda n co to have the gumption to play hardball. With anyone, on anything! Well, maybe with a whistleblower or two

You can't bluff when everyone knows you have a 2 and a joker. Ireland needs the EU unless there are some major changes which aren't happened any time in the foreseeable future. Last I saw Ireland was one of the most pro EU countries in the union.

22-02-2017 09:02AM

BabyCheeses wrote: »

You can't bluff when everyone knows you have a 2 and a joker. Ireland needs the EU unless there are some major changes which aren't happened any time in the foreseeable future. Last I saw Ireland was one of the most pro EU countries in the union.

Irelands strategy vs the EU seems to be " be good boys and ask for sympathy" . Perhaps that might have worked in the days of a strong European Commission but that hasnt been the case for over 10 years now. We need to be more assertive. All the strings are pulled by Germany now and they look after their own interests.

Another effect of Brexit will be the steady loss of the English language in Brussels, having no big player to defend it, and its replacement initially by French and then by German. This will be to Irelands disadvantage vis a vis the current situation.

FrancieBrady · 22-02-2017 10:25AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh give it a couple of years, brexit could change all that

I don't think so. We would blame 'Brexit' and not the EU. There will be a dividend from this for us, we will be ending our dependence on the British market, one way or another. That has not been healthy as we can see now.

I am looking forward to seeing what an EU with fully committed members looks like to be honest.
And an EU that has taken account of it's failings. That has to happen too and I think it will.

Snickers Man · 22-02-2017 03:20PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the north's economy is the fault of the organisation who spent 30 years bombing the place with (amongst others) the objective of making it an unattractive place for outside investment.

i think you'll find the first organisation to launch a bombing campaign against the North's infrastructure was the UVF in March and April 1969. Power stations, water supply lines etc etc.

Of course these were "false flag" operations intended to be blamed on the "Fenians" but they didn't fool anyone.

Snickers Man · 22-02-2017 03:31PM

OK better get back on topic.

I have no idea what EXACTLY is going to happen wrt IReland and the EU but we are in for radically changing times.

I don't think we're going to see a United Ireland any time soon. Brexit, coupled with a likely radical change in NATO will see the strategic nature of ireland's proximity to Britain shoot up the priority list of British planners considering the Northern Ireland problem.

Here's a not unlikely scenario: French and Germans push for a European Army; NATO falls apart as a consequence much to the delight of both the Russians and the Trump administration; a new slimmed-down NATO comprising USA, UK, Turkey and maybe Norway (the latter two not EU members remember) takes place focussed not on defending Europe from Russia but on promoting USA's global strategy.

Membership of EU army becomes burning topic in Ireland given our "traditional" neutrality. Britain becomes very nevous about pan-European power with bases on its western flank. Northern Ireland becomes REALLY important strategically to Britain.

Implications for the rest of us: we might be able to hang on to neutrality. It might suit the British to have us unaligned and militarily weak. Perhaps the EU doesn't want to provoke Britain too much and permits us to stay neutral. But Britain will cover its ass, regardless, by "investing" in the Northern Ireland economy. Particularly in the area of "security" services. A sector that has always been dominated by the Protestant/Unionist population.

Of course this would all be greatly simplified if we would just see sense and return to the UK or at least Commonwealth fold. This is a line that is going to be promoted with increasing shrillness as events unfold.

I think we can expect a lot more assinine articles like this from the likes of the odious Mr Heffer. And others. Let's not be fooled, eh?

murphaph · 22-02-2017 04:05PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh give it a couple of years, brexit could change all that

I certainly hope not. I wouldn't have minded closer integration with the UK as part of the EU, perhaps as some sort of federation, but I would vehemently object to leaving the EU to seek closer integration with a UK that has left the largest trading bloc in the world and shown . Sorry, but they are complete idiots for doing what they are doing and we need to do our damnedest to make the best out of a bad situation by growing our business with the continent. It is going to be painful but turning our backs on a market of 500 million that is comparatively close for a market of 70 million that is a little bit closer is only marginally less stupid that Brexit itself. We would then be heavily dependent on a market that itself looks likely to struggle as it tries to replace trade with rich near neighbours with trade with poor far flung places. Sorry but we'd be going back to the 1930's if we follow the UK out the door.

The UK is turning itself into an irrelevant backwater. Very sad state of affairs.

wes · 22-02-2017 04:09PM

Brexit is imho an oppurtunity for our country, just as much as it is a crisis for us. We can swoop in and take a lot of business from the UK, and use the oppurtunity to enhance our place in Europe and the world.

murphaph · 22-02-2017 04:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

All the strings are pulled by Germany now and they look after their own interests.

Sorry this is not fair. Germany has the lowest voting weight in the Union. Malta has the highest as the voting weights favour smaller countries over bigger ones. Obviously the country with the largest absolute population has more voting power than the country with the smallest but it is proportionally weighted against Germany the most!

Germany has been disproportionately paying towards the EU budget since the beginning. It was and still is Germany apologising for destroying Europe 70 years ago.

Snickers Man · 22-02-2017 04:19PM

murphaph wrote: »

Germany has been disproportionately paying towards the EU budget since the beginning. It was and still is Germany apologising for destroying Europe 70 years ago.

Well you're not entirely wrong but if that is all that's holding Europe together, it's doomed.

I really think there is more to the EU than German guilt. Besides, if it breaks up it's only throwing up the opportunity for some strong power, perhaps Germany perhaps somebody else, to build up their own reasons for guilt in the future!

murphaph · 22-02-2017 05:08PM

Snickers Man wrote: »

Well you're not entirely wrong but if that is all that's holding Europe together, it's doomed.

I really think there is more to the EU than German guilt. Besides, if it breaks up it's only throwing up the opportunity for some strong power, perhaps Germany perhaps somebody else, to build up their own reasons for guilt in the future!

There's some crossed wires here. I don't think the EU is solely based on German guilt. I was just rebutting the claim that the EU is controlled by Germany. That is the kind of Daily Mail trash that got the UK into this mess. Maybe I didn't express it very well.

Germany is about as benevolent an EU partner you will ever find IMO and this goes back to their collective guilt. A Germany that had never brought Europe Nazism would have told the Greeks to take a hike long ago. They are still mindful of the catastrophic mistakes their country made in the past.

24-02-2017 01:32PM

murphaph wrote: »

Sorry this is not fair. Germany has the lowest voting weight in the Union. Malta has the highest as the voting weights favour smaller countries over bigger ones. Obviously the country with the largest absolute population has more voting power than the country with the smallest but it is proportionally weighted against Germany the most!

Germany has been disproportionately paying towards the EU budget since the beginning. It was and still is Germany apologising for destroying Europe 70 years ago.

Its not about voting.

Look at it strategically and look where Germany has influence and the posts occupied by Germans.

Who proposes policy, who pushes it through and who can block things.. this doesnt depend on actual votes.

And by the way, I'm not criticising Germany, just noting the way the landscape has changed from Delors day.

Snickers Man · 24-02-2017 02:50PM

BTW if you want to see the original "article", here it is. Not very long but I think it gives some insight into the mentality of its author Mr Heffer.

Draw your own conclusions.

"Ireland is fretting about the nature of the border between the republic and the North after Brexit. So should we. I expect it won’t be too long before Ireland wants to leave the EU as well, not simply because of the importance of its trade with the UK, but because the EU is determined to forbid it to operate the 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate that is just about the only thing keeping it economically viable. It is scaremongering to say a “hard border” would revive terrorism; terrorism in Ireland has never died, and there is no link between it and new border controls.

The problem will be EU nationals from countries with whom we don’t make reciprocal arrangements entering the UK through the Irish/UK border. If we don’t want a hard border – and I don’t – we shall just have to become ruthless at tracking illegal immigrants down, and deporting them."

johnp001 · 24-02-2017 02:55PM

murphaph wrote: »

There's some crossed wires here. I don't think the EU is solely based on German guilt. I was just rebutting the claim that the EU is controlled by Germany. That is the kind of Daily Mail trash that got the UK into this mess. Maybe I didn't express it very well.

Germany is about as benevolent an EU partner you will ever find IMO and this goes back to their collective guilt. A Germany that had never brought Europe Nazism would have told the Greeks to take a hike long ago. They are still mindful of the catastrophic mistakes their country made in the past.

It told them to take a hike when they went looking for war reparations

The EU institutions were the ones who insisted on a bailout deal being accepted after the Greeks had voted not to accept one and the IMF was speaking out about the impracticality of solving the Greek debt crisis with more debt. European banks would have had a major shock if Greece had defaulted and German political influence was used to ensure the EU forced that not to happen. The net effect has been to keep the European (including German) banks nominally afloat while Greece's economy spiralled downward.

BlinkingLights · 25-02-2017 12:33PM

What I do not understand about fans of this leave the EU strategy is what exactly they propose would replace it?

The UK may be our nearest neighbour and we may speak a common language and share a lot of history, but they are going down the route of protectionism and nationalism, despite all this talk of a "global Britian". There was no incompatibility between a global Britian and the EU. So it's all just rhetoric to paper over the inward looking return to nationalism and protectionist policies.

Then worry I would have is why does anyone think Ireland would even get any sort of deal with a country like that, never mind a good or fair one?

We have a rule based, mutually agreed, highly organised and nuanced deal with the EU which we are a full member of. It has laws, and courts and we have boring rights and vetos and all sorts of ability to influence it.

If we left and became dependent on the UK we would be at their whim. If Ireland were to out compete them in anyway way, do you really think they're going to consult the rule book? They'd just throw under the first bus.

Ireland, like most member states, gets into disputes with various EU agencies when we are deemed to have breached agreed rules, but the EU is the mechanism whereby we can resolve those disputes through the courts and threw an actual legal and political process.

If we had an agreement with the UK it's likely it would be subject to the English courts and the UK Supreme Court or, perhaps no court at all and Westminster could just adjust the rules or pull the plug at any time.

I don't see how we can even contemplate replacing our relationship with the EU, as a full member; with some ad hoc mess with the UK.

It's very likely the UK will also got some economic shocks over the next while. Despite the hype and accusations that the only economic problems were in the Eurozone - the UK went through a similarly dramatic credit crunch and bank bailout. It still has nationalised, loss making banks and it is still deficit spending on a scale that's way higher than here or most of the EU members. It also imposed very painful cuts on social, health and even basic infrastructure maintenance budgets.

You've also got a very significant consumer credit bubble in the UK.

It Sterling goes down more dramatically, and you hit high inflation and so on, the UK may not even be all that attractive a market to trade with.

We need to think about the long game here.

In 4 years time it's plausible that a lot will have changed. I wouldn't for example assume that the Trump phenomenon in the US will last. There's very likely to be a major backlash in the midterms, particularly if he continues his strategy of berating the media. If there's an economic slip up in the states he is going in dire political trouble.

Ireland needs to sit back, take precautions, be diplomatic and try to make the most of the instability by offering a safe, stable haven for companies to invest. The last thing we need to so is jump on the Anglo-American rollercoaster.

Mr.Micro · 25-02-2017 01:50PM

BlinkingLights wrote: »

What I do not understand about fans of this leave the EU strategy is what exactly they propose would replace it?

The UK may be our nearest neighbour and we may speak a common language and share a lot of history, but they are going down the route of protectionism and nationalism, despite all this talk of a "global Britian". There was no incompatibility between a global Britian and the EU. So it's all just rhetoric to paper over the inward looking return to nationalism and protectionist policies.

Then worry I would have is why does anyone think Ireland would even get any sort of deal with a country like that, never mind a good or fair one?

We have a rule based, mutually agreed, highly organised and nuanced deal with the EU which we are a full member of. It has laws, and courts and we have boring rights and vetos and all sorts of ability to influence it.

If we left and became dependent on the UK we would be at their whim. If Ireland were to out compete them in anyway way, do you really think they're going to consult the rule book? They'd just throw under the first bus.

Ireland, like most member states, gets into disputes with various EU agencies when we are deemed to have breached agreed rules, but the EU is the mechanism whereby we can resolve those disputes through the courts and threw an actual legal and political process.

If we had an agreement with the UK it's likely it would be subject to the English courts and the UK Supreme Court or, perhaps no court at all and Westminster could just adjust the rules or pull the plug at any time.

I don't see how we can even contemplate replacing our relationship with the EU, as a full member; with some ad hoc mess with the UK.

It's very likely the UK will also got some economic shocks over the next while. Despite the hype and accusations that the only economic problems were in the Eurozone - the UK went through a similarly dramatic credit crunch and bank bailout. It still has nationalised, loss making banks and it is still deficit spending on a scale that's way higher than here or most of the EU members. It also imposed very painful cuts on social, health and even basic infrastructure maintenance budgets.

You've also got a very significant consumer credit bubble in the UK.

It Sterling goes down more dramatically, and you hit high inflation and so on, the UK may not even be all that attractive a market to trade with.

We need to think about the long game here.

In 4 years time it's plausible that a lot will have changed. I wouldn't for example assume that the Trump phenomenon in the US will last. There's very likely to be a major backlash in the midterms, particularly if he continues his strategy of berating the media. If there's an economic slip up in the states he is going in dire political trouble.

Ireland needs to sit back, take precautions, be diplomatic and try to make the most of the instability by offering a safe, stable haven for companies to invest. The last thing we need to so is jump on the Anglo-American rollercoaster.

Can you see any of the current political parties having that wisdom or type of strategy to cope with the possible advantages for Ireland and the possible negative fallout? I don't. We have FF, all but in power, telling Enda what to do and he asking Martin for advice. From past history, FF is just reckless when it comes to economic planning and predictions. No, we will just follow the next guy.

BlinkingLights · 25-02-2017 07:02PM

I'm not so sure. I haven't seen anyone in politics here suggesting we jump on the Brexit bandwagon.

The key to Ireland's economic strategy over the next few years is to ensure we are seen to be the complete antidote to Brexit Britian and Trump's America.

Canada will also be trying to position itself as a sane and stable alternative to the US. Ireland needs to be be the sane and stable alternative to the UK.

25-02-2017 07:05PM

So

1. Brexit leaners are pushing for an Irish EU exit.

2. Labour starts equating Scots nationalism with racism & extolling the values of British Unionism.

Am I the only one expecting to see the question of Ireland returning to Britain come up across the water? With lots of "but they really want to be British again"?

Donal55 · 25-02-2017 07:09PM

It would be nice to see MRBI or RED C do an opinion poll on our relationship with the EU so as to guage the view.

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-02-2017 08:53PM

Donal55 wrote: »

It would be nice to see MRBI or RED C do an opinion poll on our relationship with the EU so as to guage the view.

Do you remember what the poll 'experts' had forecast for the chances of Brexit and Trump?

Donal55 · 25-02-2017 09:06PM

Georgia Blue Teetotaler wrote: »

Do you remember what the poll 'experts' had forecast for the chances of Brexit and Trump?

I do, both were contrary to actual results. However it would be nice to get a general overview of what the publics feeling is on the EU. As it is I wouldn't know if its 9 % or 90% in favour.

BlinkingLights · 25-02-2017 10:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Am I the only one expecting to see the question of Ireland returning to Britain come up across the water? With lots of "but they really want to be British again"?

I don't think that's even remotely politically possible or likely. Very, very few Irish people would be keen on that idea.

CrabRevolution · 25-02-2017 11:23PM

While most obviously see the reality that we're our own country who have no desire to dissolve into the UK, there are a few in the UK who see Ireland's nationhood and independence as some sort of stroppy teenage phase.

I'd love to see what odds you'd get on the whole combination of:

1. A strongly, vocally unionist candidate running for the Dáil.
2. This candidate getting elected.
3. This unlikely scenario happening a further 80 times across the country, gaining enough TDs to pass a bill to dissolve the state and join the UK.
4. A referendum passing on subsuming ourselves into the UK.

The only group I know who would propose Ireland joining the UK is the Reform group. In 20 years of existence they've amassed a mighty 73 twitter followers (and even then a lot of them aren't Irish or living in Ireland), and a lapsed website www.reform.org .

I think it's safe to say Ireland won't be joining the UK.

25-02-2017 11:54PM

BlinkingLights wrote: »

I don't think that's even remotely politically possible or likely. Very, very few Irish people would be keen on that idea.

You think that'll stop the Brexit boyos in their smokey private clubs? They'll pull a Putin on it, all infowar smoke & mirrors until it's a shrug shoulder question, then swoop in with a "vote" for "security" or some such.

BlinkingLights · 26-02-2017 02:11AM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

While most obviously see the reality that we're our own country who have no desire to dissolve into the UK, there are a few in the UK who see Ireland's nationhood and independence as some sort of stroppy teenage phase.

There are some people here and elsewhere who see the current UK government and Labour opposition as a sign of the UK slipping into some kind of senility where it continuously harps on about "I was great you know! I ran an empire!!"

murphaph · 26-02-2017 09:00AM

I think the UK may need to go through this and to fail spectacularly for them to realise they are just another medium sized country.

It's like Germany didn't believe it really lost WWI and had to start and be beaten in WWII to realise it.

26-02-2017 10:01AM

Donal55 wrote: »

I do, both were contrary to actual results. However it would be nice to get a general overview of what the publics feeling is on the EU. As it is I wouldn't know if its 9 % or 90% in favour.

It could be either depending on how the question is phrased and what other questions lead up to the EU Question.

People are not happy with the EU, but they know there's no other game in town at present. So the % result will depend on which emotion the question captures.

BlinkingLights · 26-02-2017 05:45PM

murphaph wrote: »

I think the UK may need to go through this and to fail spectacularly for them to realise they are just another medium sized country.

It's like Germany didn't believe it really lost WWI and had to start and be beaten in WWII to realise it.

This is part of the problem.

Many of those who voters to Brexit seemed to think they could turn the clock back to an idealised and rose tinted glasses version of the 1950s which never existed in the first place.

A lot of what's being proposed is contradictory, makes no sense and is impossible. I find the "Global Britain" vs "EU membership" as if they're competing concepts the most ridiculous aspect.

The EU is as or more likely to do trade deals with third countries as it has a huge consumer market and a lot to offer in exchange.

You can't just turn the clock back to the British Empire days. The relationship the have with a lot of former colonies is also totally untested as they haven't directly negotiated with these countries in decades.

There are a lot of ex colonies who may not be overly keen on giving the UK a favourable deal, particularly one that's likely to be very harsh on immigration from those places. The history is also dire in a lot of cases. The EU negotiating by proxy for them in the past neutralised a lot of nasty history.

The UK isn't really offering very much. It's a mid-sized economy but wants access to markets abroad and expects that granted why exactly?!.

Snickers Man · 27-02-2017 11:19AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Am I the only one expecting to see the question of Ireland returning to Britain come up across the water? With lots of "but they really want to be British again"?

No you're not. I think we're going to hear a lot more of it. Mr Heffer is just one of the first to fly that particular kite. (not THE first) We're also going to hear some of it coming from north of the border. Lord Kilcloney (the former John Taylor, Unionist MP) was making similar points in a letter to the Irish Times recently. To name but one.

There are huge contradictions between the positions of Trump and many Brexiteers. Trump is an unashamed American protectionist; the likes of Farage trumpet Britain's freedom to be a global economic power. Farage is basically an opportunist and self-important narcissist. He is one of those who stirs the pot and then denies he ever said any such thing.

Case in point: at the time of the US elections he was most insistent that he was NOT endorsing Trump. Just saying that he "wouldn't vote for Hilary Clinton if SHE paid me". Now, of course, he was Trump's biggest backer all along. The man is truly full of ****.

He knows, or thinks he knows, what he doesn't want. He has no idea of what he does want. Or at least, when the inevitable consequences of the changes he has demanded come to pass, he will decry them as loudly as anything he has decried in the past.

There are also huge divisions and differences of opinion between those who supported Brexit. Divisions that will likely become apparent as things move forward. Brexit is going to happen in some form; one cannot have any illusions about that. Just what it will look like....who knows?

The EU is travelling along a rocky road for the next year or so. It may not even survive. We shall see. So we should never say never when it comes to having to build new relationships outside of the framework of the EU. But among the range of choices currently available to us, that's got to be Option Z.

Sam Russell · 27-02-2017 12:43PM

I think it is more likely that the UK breaks up than the EU does. Scotland were told during their independence bid that if they voted for independence, they would be kicked out of the EU. Now they have voted to stay in the UK and also voted to stay in the EU, they are demanding a re-run of the independence vote.

If they vote to leave the UK, where will that leave NI?

johnp001 · 27-02-2017 01:18PM

Snickers Man wrote: »

No you're not. I think we're going to hear a lot more of it. Mr Heffer is just one of the first to fly that particular kite. (not THE first) We're also going to hear some of it coming from north of the border. Lord Kilcloney (the former John Taylor, Unionist MP) was making similar points in a letter to the Irish Times recently. To name but one.

There are huge contradictions between the positions of Trump and many Brexiteers. Trump is an unashamed American protectionist; the likes of Farage trumpet Britain's freedom to be a global economic power. Farage is basically an opportunist and self-important narcissist. He is one of those who stirs the pot and then denies he ever said any such thing.

Case in point: at the time of the US elections he was most insistent that he was NOT endorsing Trump. Just saying that he "wouldn't vote for Hilary Clinton if SHE paid me". Now, of course, he was Trump's biggest backer all along. The man is truly full of ****.

He knows, or thinks he knows, what he doesn't want. He has no idea of what he does want. Or at least, when the inevitable consequences of the changes he has demanded come to pass, he will decry them as loudly as anything he has decried in the past.

There are also huge divisions and differences of opinion between those who supported Brexit. Divisions that will likely become apparent as things move forward. Brexit is going to happen in some form; one cannot have any illusions about that. Just what it will look like....who knows?

The EU is travelling along a rocky road for the next year or so. It may not even survive. We shall see. So we should never say never when it comes to having to build new relationships outside of the framework of the EU. But among the range of choices currently available to us, that's got to be Option Z.

Farage speech at a Trump campaign rally last August

Nigel Farage wrote:

Yes, we were visited by President Barack Obama. And he talked down to us. He treated us as if we were nothing. One of the oldest functioning democracies, and here he was telling us to vote Remain. So I, having criticised and condemned his behaviour, I could not possibly tell you how you should vote in this election.
But, but [applause] I get it, I'm hearing you [applause] but if I was an American citizen I wouldn't vote for Hilary Clinton if you paid me [applause] In fact I wouldn't vote for Hilary Clinton if she paid me.
Folks the message is clear, the parallels are there, there are millions of ordinary Americans who have been let down
...
I think that you have a fantastic opportunity opportunity here with this campaign. You can go out, you can beat the pollsters, you can beat the commentators, you can beat Washington. And you'll do it by doing what we did for Brexit in Britain
...
You better get out there campaigning. Anything is possible if enough decent people are willing to stand up against the establishment.

Politicians only give speeches of this nature at the campaign rallies of candidates they have unambiguously thrown their support behind.

Irish Brexit

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