Irish Brexit

Snickers Man

It seems that the Irish Ambassador to Britain has become slightly agitated about an opinion piece in the Daily Telegraph over the weekend written by one Simon Heffer which says that Ireland will want to leave the EU once the consequences of Brexit are felt.

“I expect it won’t be too long before Ireland wants to leave the EU as well," writes Mr Heffer, "not simply because of the importance of its trade with the UK, but because the EU is determined to forbid it to operate the 12.5% corporation tax rate that is just about the only thing keeping it economically viable.”

Hefner also pointed out that any concerns about renewed violence in Northern Ireland as a result of a reinstated "hard border" between the Republic and the North was mere “scaremongering” and that “terrorism in Ireland has never died, and there is no link between it and new Border controls”.

Now this is of course the same Simon Heffer who drafted the notorious opinion piece in the Spectator magazine, then edited by Boris Johnson, which accused Liverpool people of wallowing in self pity and having a victim and compensation culture in the wake of the murder of a Liverpudlian hostage in Iraq. The editorial also repeated now discredited allegations against Liverpool fans at Hillsborough which held them partly responsible for the dozens of deaths that occurred there in 1989.

This is the article which caused Boris Johnson to be ordered to go to Liverpool and apologise for its content. But it was Heffer who had landed him in it.

Mr Heffer clearly has a track record of being contentious, objectionable, obnoxious and one dimensional. He is lucky to have found a job in which he can earn a living doing something that clearly comes very easily to him.

wes

If our economy tanks, we will rightly blame Brexit. If there is renewed violence in the North we will rightly blame Brexit. Why would we want to follow the Brits in wrecking our economy further, just so the far rights can destroy the EU, and plunge europe back into the pre-EU bad days?

The simple fact is that Brexiters are not the friends of Ireland. One need look no further than Michael Goves opinion on the peace process.

enricoh

Dunno if we will or not but all our politicians have ruled it out categorically.
U' d think that enda n co would have the cop on to play a bit of poker with the eu and say that if our interests are not being met we would leave - ie attacks on the 12.5%. Etc.
Actually no, come to think of it I don't expect enda n co to have the gumption to play hardball. With anyone, on anything! Well, maybe with a whistleblower or two

FrancieBrady

enricoh wrote: »

Dunno if we will or not but all our politicians have ruled it out categorically.
U' d think that enda n co would have the cop on to play a bit of poker with the eu and say that if our interests are not being met we would leave - ie attacks on the 12.5%. Etc.
Actually no, come to think of it I don't expect enda n co to have the gumption to play hardball. With anyone, on anything! Well, maybe with a whistleblower or two

Who knows. maybe it would suit the EU and 'uncomplicate' Brexit if the UK and Ireland left.

Anyway, I don't think our electorate are as uninformed as the UK one. We probably know more about how the EU actually works than those who were passionately Brexit.

CrabRevolution

The pro brexit papers in the UK probably have 27 different articles written up about how each country in the EU is on the verge of leaving.

It's in their interests to discredit the EU and make it look like the UK is fleeing a sinking ship. It'd look strange for them to say "Brexit is a good idea because the EU is doing alright and its member states are happy to be part of it".

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyway, I don't think our electorate are as uninformed as the UK one. We probably know more about how the EU actually works than those who were passionately Brexit.

Perhaps, but we've been fed a diet of ' Brexit will have no effect at the border' etc by our politicians, and this is just dangerous and complacent wishful thinking and indeed it's extremely unlikely to pan out like that.

Ireland needs to wake up and take Brexit seriously, really seriously.

Snickers Man

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland needs to wake up and take Brexit seriously, really seriously.

Well that's only common sense. I think big changes are certainly afoot. Perhaps bigger than many realise.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Perhaps, but we've been fed a diet of ' Brexit will have no effect at the border' etc by our politicians, and this is just dangerous and complacent wishful thinking and indeed it's extremely unlikely to pan out like that.

Ireland needs to wake up and take Brexit seriously, really seriously.

I live on the border and the 'diet' is just not being consumed here. We know big changes are coming.

Elemonator

Certain groups of Irish people can be stupid but not as much as the uninformed groups in British society. Anyone with a brain knows Ireland will tank if we leave the EU. I find it amazing that people on social media cry for Irexit and you ask them for the thought behind their reasoning and you will find there is none bar "they are unelected" and "sovereignty something". Just about repeating what they see elsewhere.

CrabRevolution

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyway, I don't think our electorate are as uninformed as the UK one. We probably know more about how the EU actually works than those who were passionately Brexit.

Uninformed is one way of putting it, but there certainly seems to be a strong notion out there that the UK was taking a step down by joining the EU.

For Ireland joining the EU seemed to be a step up in the world, cooperating with our neighbours, opening new markets and travel etc.

On the other hand there's a lot of people in the UK who seem to resent the EU because they can't dominate it. A lot of the population aged 55+ would have grown up being told the UK was a world power, still holding several colonies, not long after winning WW2. So joining the EU, where you only carry the same weight as France, Italy, Germany etc. might have seemed like surrendering that status.

A lot of the benefits of EU membership (e.g. in science, education, health, intellectual property, environmental protection) are dismissed by brexiteers on the basis that "We'd have those benefits anyway, simply because we're the UK".

dr.fuzzenstein

Snickers Man wrote: »

blah blah blah Daily Telegraph blah blah

That's all I need to know or even read. The DT is a despicable cheese rag that I wouldn't use to wrap up potato peels for the bin. It is a waste of space staffed by morons and hate mongers and the readers would have to be knuckle-dragging troglodytes to pay any attention to the garbage, lies and hate spewing forth from it's pages.
It may be of limited use to make paper briquettes out of or to line the cat litter tray, but beyond that I see absolutely no purpose for that hateful, pathetic rag.

FrancieBrady

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

That's all I need to know or even read. The DT is a despicable cheese rag that I wouldn't use to wrap up potato peels for the bin. It is a waste of space staffed by morons and hate mongers and the readers would have to be knuckle-dragging troglodytes to pay any attention to the garbage, lies and hate spewing forth from it's pages.
It may be of limited use to make paper briquettes out of or to line the cat litter tray, but beyond that I see absolutely no purpose for that hateful, pathetic rag.

So a yearly subscription is out of the question?

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I live on the border and the 'diet' is just not being consumed here. We know big changes are coming.

Very True.


Kenny's assurances whenever he meets May etc are like Chamberlain waving his piece of paper at the airport...

The only way that there could be a seamless, invisible border is if Northern Ireland remains in the Single Market, and that could only happen if the UK specifically requested it.

And they won't request it because a. the Northern Ireland government wont ask for it and b. they certainly wont want the same for Scotland who would request it.

Actually substituting a couple of ports and airports for 300+ miles of land border has considerable merits from an EU security and anti fraud perspective.

Snickers Man

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

That's all I need to know or even read. The DT is a despicable cheese rag that I wouldn't use to wrap up potato peels for the bin. It is a waste of space staffed by morons and hate mongers and the readers would have to be knuckle-dragging troglodytes to pay any attention to the garbage, lies and hate spewing forth from it's pages.
It may be of limited use to make paper briquettes out of or to line the cat litter tray, but beyond that I see absolutely no purpose for that hateful, pathetic rag.

Well you're not wrong. But it is important to know one's enemy. Even a puss-filled bag of flatulent hot air like Simon Heffer.

As long as you stay up wind, of course.

Cartouche

What self respecting Irishman would want to read a right wing Tory newspaper like the Telegraph anyway !

BlinkingLights

The Brexiteers are just desperately looking for friends and validation.

Another country doing a ***xit would be their dreams come through. However, in Ireland's case that would mean being flung back to riding on British coattails.

I think we may just have to tough this one out and do our own thing. If the North falls apart, well they have the option of reunification anytime they want. We didn't cause Brexit or undermine their position.

I suspect the Brits will get a deal on some kind of market access, probably far less favourable than they have now but they'll have better access to the EU than the global markets and that will mean Irish goods will still be on British shelves.

What we need to so is put way more emphasis on shifting focus away from the UK. We behaved like a browbeaten ex from an abusive relationship for long enough and should have moved on more dramatically years ago.

The UK isn't a reliable trade partner. If we compete with them they'll likely throw us under the next bus. It's as bad as Trump's America First mercantile politics.

Ireland's well able to keep going. Let's not just go back to being some odd sub UK region again. It makes no sense.

Also, that newspaper isn't exactly a very good talisman of Irish political situations in yesrs to come.

RobertKK

I would argue that a majority of Irish people feel European, and see the benefits of co-operation and being inside the tent, rather than outside having to take what the people inside the tent decide.
Brexit still leaves the UK the minor player in Europe as the EU is where it will be at.
I also think the Irish love their passports of Irish and European Union citizenship, and our history shows our main allies were in Europe. The British were always a bit removed, with their empire and notions.
I need to be fair to the British and say 48% of British are intelligent, because Brexit came about due to a mindset that belonged in the past.
The power in Europe resides in the EU.

The four big players will be - The US, EU, China and Russia. Theresa May may talk about a 'global Britain', but it will only be a lapdog of the US. That is all Brexit has done, cement the lapdog position.
The Irish will not go running to be with Britain outside the Union, it is not like we have a history that was sunshine and roses, only deluded Brexiteers would believe we would want to be with them on the outside.
Britain created a mess for us, but no point making it worse.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Dr. Fuzzenstein, please read the charter about the standards of post before posting again.

jimmycrackcorm

A quick comparison of our economy since independence up until joining the EU with the period since would cement the idea of how much we are better off in the EU.

Leaving would be a disaster simply because of our ties to the Euro. Not only are people up to their eyeballs in Euro based mortgage debt, but leaving would mean paying those massive debts with a
weak punt.

Mr.Micro

Are we as a nation capable of managing our economy and finances successfully without a big brother? We had our Púnt pegged to the pound in days gone by, then we went free range for a few years with the exchange rate mechanism turbulence and all that. Then we took the Euro gratefully and big brother the EU looks after us now. Bailed us out in 2008 and we are in debt forever. We could not even consider leaving the EU, indeed we should be grateful to be still in it, after our excesses and disasterous economic failings.

foxtrot101

According to a Red C poll published by the Sunday Business Post, on the 29th of january, 70% were in favour of Ireland remaining in the EU and 28% believed Ireland should leave the EU if Brexit leads to a hard border.

Ferrari3600

Cartouche wrote: »

What self respecting Irishman would want to read a right wing Tory newspaper like the Telegraph anyway !

Exactly! We should only read 'our' own newspapers, such as the fervently nationalist and patriotic Sunday Independent!

Wanderer78

Mr.Micro wrote:

Are we as a nation capable of managing our economy and finances successfully without a big brother? We had our Púnt pegged to the pound in days gone by, then we went free range for a few years with the exchange rate mechanism turbulence and all that. Then we took the Euro gratefully and big brother the EU looks after us now. Bailed us out in 2008 and we are in debt forever. We could not even consider leaving the EU, indeed we should be grateful to be still in it, after our excesses and disasterous economic failings.

....and this has nothing to do with French and German banks chucking cheap money at us, fuelling the fire!?

wes

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....and this has nothing to do with French and German banks chucking cheap money at us, fuelling the fire!?

We didn't have to take the cheap money.........

swampgas

wes wrote: »

We didn't have to take the cheap money.........

This drives me nuts. Are we not a sovereign nation with our own government and financial regulator? Are we so weak we can't resist getting ourselves into massive debt simply because somebody waved a pile of money under our noses? That's what it sounds like.

Cheap money wisely used is very useful indeed. Cheap money blown on populist vote-buying combined with poor regulation badly enforced is a great way for an irresponsible country/government (take your pick) to inflate a massive bubble.

Mr.Micro

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....and this has nothing to do with French and German banks chucking cheap money at us, fuelling the fire!?

It only further demonstrates my point and the reckless irresponsibility of taking money with no collateral to pay it back and spending it on a property bubble, when there was no actual real jobs here, other than the bubble jobs. It was not even cheap money in the end...as we are finding out.

wes

swampgas wrote: »

This drives me nuts. Are we not a sovereign nation with our own government and financial regulator? Are we so weak we can't resist getting ourselves into massive debt simply because somebody waved a pile of money under our noses? That's what it sounds like.

Cheap money wisely used is very useful indeed. Cheap money blown on populist vote-buying combined with poor regulation badly enforced is a great way for an irresponsible country/government (take your pick) to inflate a massive bubble.

Its people just denying our own culpability in our own situation, same as we saw in Brexit. Basically all our problems are because of the EU. Its really absurd that people have taken, the issues with the EU, and decided that everything is the fault of the EU.

Complete abdication of responsibility. Ignoring that we get the government and systems that we voted for, and trying to blame everyone but ourselves for our own screw ups.

BlinkingLights

foxtrot101 wrote: »

According to a Red C poll published by the Sunday Business Post, on the 29th of january, 70% were in favour of Ireland remaining in the EU and 28% believed Ireland should leave the EU if Brexit leads to a hard border.

If a hard border happens it will impact Northern Ireland and the border counties very profoundly and won't actually have that much impact in the rest of Ireland.

We can subsidise the border counties and particularly Donegal, which faces serious logistical and transport issues should a hard border happen
I suspect the EU will probably help out as this is direct impact of a reimposition of a border and they'll probably want to ensure that those regions aren't damaged. It will be the only region facing direct impacts of Brexit negotiations so, it is going to have to be assisted and needs to be making that case now. For example : extending a serious road from the M4 through Sligo and into Donegal may be necessary.

The reality is it shows that London doesn't give a damn about the North whether they're unionist or nationalist, they're an annoying far flung region of the uk with a parallel political system and a weird accent that doesn't really feature in English politics.

The unionists and loyalists need to realise just what they're giving all their loyalty to as it does not give any back. Screwing up Northern Ireland is collateral damage - they just don't care.

Good luck finding money from central UK coffers to replace CAP and regional transfers from structural funds. The Tories fundamentally do not believe in that kind of thing and will expect you to sink or swim.

steddyeddy

BlinkingLights wrote: »

If a hard border happens it will impact Northern Ireland and the border counties very profoundly and won't actually have that much impact in the rest of Ireland.

We can subsidise the border counties and particularly Donegal, which faces serious logistical and transport issues should a hard border happen
I suspect the EU will probably help out as this is direct impact of a reimposition of a border and they'll probably want to ensure that those regions aren't damaged. It will be the only region facing direct impacts of Brexit negotiations so, it is going to have to be assisted and needs to be making that case now. For example : extending a serious road from the M4 through Sligo and into Donegal may be necessary.

The reality is it shows that London doesn't give a damn about the North whether they're unionist or nationalist, they're an annoying far flung region of the uk with a parallel political system and a weird accent that doesn't really feature in English politics.

The unionists and loyalists need to realise just what they're giving all their loyalty to as it does not give any back. Screwing up Northern Ireland is collateral damage - they just don't care.

Good luck finding money from central UK coffers to replace CAP and regional transfers from structural funds. The Tories fundamentally do not believe in that kind of thing and will expect you to sink or swim.

There's going to be a time where people in the UK are sick of subdising 6 counties to the tune of 20 billion a year. A wasteful state if ever I seen one.

wes

steddyeddy wrote: »

There's going to be a time where people in the UK are sick of subdising 6 counties to the tune of 20 billion a year. A wasteful state if ever I seen one.

They should have put in some effort to fix the Norths economy. The state of the North is ultimately there fault.

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

There's going to be a time where people in the UK are sick of subdising 6 counties to the tune of 20 billion a year. A wasteful state if ever I seen one.

Before or after they get tired of subsidising Scotland?

England is a poor country (in non financial terms) without the rest of the UK.

murphaph

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....and this has nothing to do with French and German banks chucking cheap money at us, fuelling the fire!?

The cheap money was available in Germany and France too (even cheaper!!). Ireland needs (and I believe is doing so) to learn that we are a peripheral economy in Europe. The ECB will set monetary policy for the benefit of the Eurozone as a whole and we are a very small part of it so can't expect that monetary policy to generally align with our specific needs, but that should be obvious to us and our policy-makers who should have built in safeguards to prevent cheap money overheating the economy. It was all within our own power to pour water on the fire, but we didn't. The 20% lending rules that are now in force would have prevented the worst excesses that led to the crisis.

FrancieBrady

murphaph wrote: »

The cheap money was available in Germany and France too (even cheaper!!). Ireland needs (and I believe is doing so) to learn that we are a peripheral economy in Europe. The ECB will set monetary policy for the benefit of the Eurozone as a whole and we are a very small part of it so can't expect that monetary policy to generally align with our specific needs, but that should be obvious to us and our policy-makers who should have built in safeguards to prevent cheap money overheating the economy. It was all within our own power to pour water on the fire, but we didn't. The 20% lending rules that are now in force would have prevented the worst excesses that led to the crisis.

We can put it in a book/online tutorials call 'How To Handle The First 100 Years Of Independence' and sell it to the Scots and Welsh and even the English.

We learn by our mistakes. Or, at least we should. Would we make quite the same monumental hash of it again? I don't think so.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

There's going to be a time where people in the UK are sick of subdising 6 counties to the tune of 20 billion a year. A wasteful state if ever I seen one.

20 billion now? jesus, it was 8 last week. What will it be next week:eek:

wes wrote: »

They should have put in some effort to fix the Norths economy. The state of the North is ultimately there fault.

the north's economy is the fault of the organisation who spent 30 years bombing the place with (amongst others) the objective of making it an unattractive place for outside investment.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We can put it in a book/online tutorials call 'How To Handle The First 100 Years Of Independence' and sell it to the Scots and Welsh and even the English.

We learn by our mistakes. Or, at least we should. Would we make quite the same monumental hash of it again? I don't think so.

there's a difference between making mistakes and being downright incompetent. When these mistakes were being repeatedly pointed out, those doing so were told to kill themselves, if I recall correctly.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

20 billion now? jesus, it was 8 last week. What will it be next week:eek:



the north's economy is the fault of the organisation who spent 30 years bombing the place with (amongst others) the objective of making it an unattractive place for outside investment.



there's a difference between making mistakes and being downright incompetent. When these mistakes were being repeatedly pointed out, those doing so were told to kill themselves, if I recall correctly.

The damage was well done by the stage that the very people talking up the bubble had changed their minds/bandwagon.
Will people be as stupid again? I don't think so. The ability of banks and politicians to pull the wool over people's eyes is well diminished here.

If only the same could be said of the UK then all would be a lot rosier now. Would Farage and co be able to do it again in the UK, I very much doubt it.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The damage was well done by the stage that the very people talking up the bubble had changed their minds/bandwagon.
Will people be as stupid again? I don't think so. The ability of banks and politicians to pull the wool over people's eyes is well diminished here.

really? I see the exact same behavior happening that happened ten years ago.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If only the same could be said of the UK then all would be a lot rosier now. Would Farage and co be able to do it again in the UK, I very much doubt it.

What?

pablomakaveli

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the north's economy is the fault of the organisation who spent 30 years bombing the place with (amongst others) the objective of making it an unattractive place for outside investment.

To be fair the loyalists more than played a part in that too. You only need to look at Arlene Fosters antics to see they're still scuppering the place to this day.

uck51js9zml2yt

It won't happen.
We will just have to look at the effects of Brexit on the UK to know we can't risk it.

Now a united Ireland is a different story! Please don't affiliate me with shinners

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

really? I see the exact same behavior happening that happened ten years ago.

No you don't really.
But I am all eyes, can you show us?

What?

The UK got led into an economic cul de sac by idiot politicians imo. Farage, Boris etc and now Theresa and Co finishing the job.

FrancieBrady

pablomakaveli wrote: »

To be fair the loyalists more than played a part in that too. You only need to look at Arlene Fosters antics to see they're still scuppering the place to this day.

No doubt about it, part of the campaign was to make the statelet even more economically unviable. But it never really was viable once the UK moved away from being a manufacturing powerhouse.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doubt about it, part of the campaign was to make the statelet even more economically unviable. But it never really was viable once the UK moved away from being a manufacturing powerhouse.

http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/organ/ira/ira_green_book.htm

The strategy is:

1. A War of attrition against enemy personnel which is aimed at causing as many casualties and deaths as possible so as to create a demand from their people at home for their withdrawal.

2. A bombing campaign aimed at making the enemy's financial interest in our country unprofitable while at the same time curbing long term financial investment in our country.

wes

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the north's economy is the fault of the organisation who spent 30 years bombing the place with (amongst others) the objective of making it an unattractive place for outside investment.

No, its the fault of the UK government, who refused to gurantee civil rights for everyone in Northen Ireland, and hence the bloody mess. Ignoring why the IRA existed, in the first place is simply foolish.

The fact remains, that the UK government has failed to improve the Norths economy.

FrancieBrady

wes wrote: »

No, its the fault of the UK government, who refused to gurantee civil rights for everyone in Northen Ireland, and hence the bloody mess. Ignoring why the IRA existed, in the first place is simply foolish.

The fact remains, that the UK government has failed to improve the Norths economy.

Fred doesn't countenance that. The UK could have done in 1969 what they eventually did in 1998 negating any reason for the conflict to explode and get out of control.

wes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fred doesn't countenance that. The UK could have done in 1969 what they eventually did in 1998 negating any reason for the conflict to explode and get out of control.

Its shocking that to this day, that people can't recognise, that if the civil rights of everyone in the North were respected, then the troubles probably wouldn't have happened.

One would hope people, would want to learn from history, but it looks like far to many are blinded by emotion to do so.

Arthur Daley

We have to expect a bombardment of Euro crises stories in the British media. '48 hours to save the euro', 'look over there at greece' that kind of thing.

They would be better spending their time and energy finally getting the UK deficit under control rather than worrying about the euro or southern european economies a fraction of their size.

Osbourne and Cameron tried to tackle this as it was such a priority in the 2010 and 2015 elections. But they've walked now, and nobody is showing any signs of addressing it.

steddyeddy

pablomakaveli wrote: »

To be fair the loyalists more than played a part in that too. You only need to look at Arlene Fosters antics to see they're still scuppering the place to this day.

Through unionist eyes it will always be A) nationalists, Catholics or C) the rest.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/organ/ira/ira_green_book.htm

I know you don't agree Fred but a sectarian state against one ethnic group isn't great either. Not a great investment oppertunity either.

steddyeddy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doubt about it, part of the campaign was to make the statelet even more economically unviable. But it never really was viable once the UK moved away from being a manufacturing powerhouse.

And I suppose all the unemployed people are due to nationalists ect. As well as the RHI scheme.

steddyeddy

wes wrote: »

They should have put in some effort to fix the Norths economy. The state of the North is ultimately there fault.

This Brexit thing might force them to face reality.

Fratton Fred

wes wrote: »

No, its the fault of the UK government, who refused to gurantee civil rights for everyone in Northen Ireland, and hence the bloody mess. Ignoring why the IRA existed, in the first place is simply foolish.

The fact remains, that the UK government has failed to improve the Norths economy.

So the organization that had the stated aim of ****ing up the North's economy can't, under any circumstances, be blamed for, you know, ****ing up the economy?

Maybe slab Murphy and Gerry Adams should be made to fund rebuilding the economy.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So the organization that had the stated aim of ****ing up the North's economy can't, under any circumstances, be blamed for, you know, ****ing up the economy?

Maybe slab Murphy and Gerry Adams should be made to fund rebuilding the economy.

Fred get realistic here , of course the PIRA campaign had a massive effect on furthering weakening the North's economy .

But you must accept that prior to 1969 it was a false economy anyway with an over reliance on state support and with no incentive to change as those in power were beings paid handsomely anyway.

The PIRA and Loyalists campaigns only hastened what the market reforms of Reagan and Thatcher did everywhere else anyway . We saw it here in the Republic . Now the north have to go through it just 30 years late