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Irish Brexit

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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Eurobarometer says 55% of irish have a positive view of the EU:

    C5q4askXEAQyP2x.jpg


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭A Little Pony


    EU is falling apart soon enough. Ireland will be leaving.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    johnp001 wrote: »
    Farage speech at a Trump campaign rally last August




    Politicians only give speeches of this nature at the campaign rallies of candidates they have unambiguously thrown their support behind.

    He also said repeatedly on TV interviews at the time that "He had not endorsed" Trump, so he was giving himself plenty of wiggle room if the election had not gone his way. Have a look at this link from 3min 48secs onwards for an example. And if Trump actually does manage to disgrace himself, or at least turn a majority of Americans to the view that he is a disgrace--which is not the same thing at all--no doubt you will see Nigel saying that he was never asupporter of his at all, just that they share a common value in "nation state democracy" which can mean whatever you want it to mean.


    Wait and see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 658 ✭✭✭johnp001


    Farage was trying to avoid being accused of hypocrisy as he had previously criticised Obama for coming to the UK and advocating a Remain vote on the grounds that he was not from the country concerned. (see quote above)

    I don't think that having refused to utter the words "I endorse Trump" would be anyways meaningful if he wanted to disavow Trump in the future seeing as he has been invited on stage by him to speak on his behalf during a campaign rally but it does go someway to not directly contradicting his position on Obama's input into the Brexit referendum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donal55


    Eurobarometer says 55% of irish have a positive view of the EU:

    C5q4askXEAQyP2x.jpg

    Thanks for that. Actually thought support would be higher.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,517 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    I think we should stay in the EU but the argument gets more difficult now that we are probably a net contributor to it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 658 ✭✭✭johnp001


    The EU situation could change dramatically as we go into the summer, if a Grexit becomes likely again then peripheral bond rates will rise significantly and if a country does leave the currency union then all bets are off.
    Currently Greece is in even more trouble since yesterday as German government representative doubles down on EU position that no debt relief can be given to Greece even though IMF has long been saying that disaster is inevitable without a haircut.
    German deputy finance minister insists Greece will not receive debt haircut


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    johnp001 wrote: »
    Currently Greece is in even more trouble since yesterday as German government representative doubles down on EU position that no debt relief can be given to Greece even though IMF has long been saying that disaster is inevitable without a haircut.


    Germany doesn't trust Greece to deliver (with good reason) and wouldn't shed any tears if Greece left the Euro and the EU, even though, financially, it would cost Germany heavily.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,620 ✭✭✭✭dr.fuzzenstein


    EU is falling apart soon enough. Ireland will be leaving.

    Well, Ireland is a door to the EU for many foreign companies that certainly appreciate no language barrier and low tax, of course it would be the smartest move of the century to leave the EU.
    An unrelated tip, if you want to cut off a branch off a tree, make sure you sit on it. The branch bends downwards and your saw won't get stuck.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,256 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    RobertKK wrote: »
    I would argue that a majority of Irish people feel European, and see the benefits of co-operation and being inside the tent, rather than outside having to take what the people inside the tent decide.
    Brexit still leaves the UK the minor player in Europe as the EU is where it will be at.

    What exactly is "feel European" - id love to see any back up for your first statement. We never we European and never will be.

    Secondly lets not delude ourselves, we are only "Inside" the tent because our dear leaders in the Dail are good lapdogs and do what Merkel tells them. The only little bit of power we had would handed over the day Lisbon was ratified.

    That being said, the seeds that were sown back in the 80's/90's luring the MNC's here that either directly or indirectly now employ 100,000's of people mean we can never leave even if we wanted too.

    But then lets be realistic, if they could, the powerhouses in Europe would steam roll this country tomorrow if it meant the Multinationals etc moving to mainland Europe.

    By all means, continue to believe in being "European"


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  • Registered Users Posts: 658 ✭✭✭johnp001


    Germany doesn't trust Greece to deliver (with good reason) and wouldn't shed any tears if Greece left the Euro and the EU, even though, financially, it would cost Germany heavily.

    Despite the Greeks electing a Syriza government which ran on a platform of no bailout and then voting in a referendum not to accept the proposed bailout in 2015 Merkel's government has always argued against Grexit and it has not happened. (Ireland found itself unable to burn the Anglo bondholders as it first intended under pressure from the ECB so it is a fair surmise that similar pressure was brought to bear on Greece)

    It would certainly cost Germany heavily, not only in immediate losses from default but also as the largest contributor to the EFSF which would require more backing in the event of Grexit and PIIGS and other peripheral countries would very likely be downgraded and not be in a position to provide the ESM guarantees. Some estimates at the time were for costs to Germany for contingent liabilities of up to 56% of GDP in order to keep the Euro currency stable.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    twinytwo wrote: »
    What exactly is "feel European" - id love to see any back up for your first statement. We never we European and never will be.

    Secondly lets not delude ourselves, we are only "Inside" the tent because our dear leaders in the Dail are good lapdogs and do what Merkel tells them. The only little bit of power we had would handed over the day Lisbon was ratified.

    That being said, the seeds that were sown back in the 80's/90's luring the MNC's here that either directly or indirectly now employ 100,000's of people mean we can never leave even if we wanted too.

    But then lets be realistic, if they could, the powerhouses in Europe would steam roll this country tomorrow if it meant the Multinationals etc moving to mainland Europe.

    By all means, continue to believe in being "European"

    It may come as a surprise to learn, we have been members of the EEC and EU for 46 years, since 1st Jan 1973, when Angela Merkel was 18 years old and lived in East Germany with no expectation of ever joining the EU.

    MNCs have been 'lured' here since the 1960s, before ever we joined the EU. Digital Equipment Corporation were in Galway since 1971, before we joined the EEC.

    There is no likelihood that Ireland will ever leave the EU unless the unthinkable happens - whatever that might be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    It may come as a surprise to learn, we have been members of the EEC and EU for 46 years, since 1st Jan 1973, when Angela Merkel was 18 years old and lived in East Germany with no expectation of ever joining the EU.

    MNCs have been 'lured' here since the 1960s, before ever we joined the EU. Digital Equipment Corporation were in Galway since 1971, before we joined the EEC.

    There is no likelihood that Ireland will ever leave the EU unless the unthinkable happens - whatever that might be.

    And all those textile companies Lanaknit ,Butaknit etc in the Shannon Industrial estate since the 60's . How little people know of their own history .


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,846 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Donal55 wrote: »
    Thanks for that. Actually thought support would be higher.

    If it's from the same source as I have (the eurobarometer survey), the question asked was "In general, does the EU conjure up for you a very positive, fairly positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image?"

    55% gave a positive answer, 31% gave a neutral answer and 13% gave a negative answer.

    The "neutral" option throws the survey a bit compared to the more usual approve/disapprove question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,545 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Leave the EU to go into a mad partnership with the Daily Telegraph, UKIP, England and the right wing of the tory party.

    Sure what could go wrong? :pac::pac::pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,178 ✭✭✭pajo1981


    twinytwo wrote: »
    What exactly is "feel European" - id love to see any back up for your first statement. We never we European and never will be."

    We are both genetically & geographically European, clown.

    Travel to africa or asia and tell me you dont feel European.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    pajo1981 wrote: »
    We are both genetically & geographically European, clown.

    Travel to africa or asia and tell me you dont feel European.

    ... or even USA


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 910 ✭✭✭BlinkingLights


    ... or even USA

    I've had that odd sense of being "home" when I've arrived in Paris CDG from having been in the USA and you are greeted with an EU passport sign and bonjour.

    Yeah the language is different but, a lot of other things are extremely familiar and you have a sense that you are welcome. Whereas in the US you always feel like a tourist or an immigrant subject to all sorts of random checks.

    I *really* felt it when I landed in Amsterdam Schiphol from China. The Amsterdam to Cork bit feels very definitely more like domestic.

    You do get that sense of being part of something that you don't get when you're genuinely "abroad"

    It's all the little technicalities and social attitudes too. Most European countries are retain their differences but we have a hell of a lot more in common than we think sometimes.

    I guess what does it for me anyway is the sense that I could just decide to live in any of those EU countries and I know that they'll uphold my right to do so.

    We did take a huge step together and it is political and emotional as much as it's economic.

    I'd genuinely feel really hemmed in if Ireland were in a similar position to say NZ, where you basically have to apply for visa as to live anywhere else.

    The EU is full of flaws and glitches and the odd massive unforseen problem here and there but I think for the most part it works pretty well and we aren't really at each others throats.
    It just seems like an awful lot to just walk away from. I'd find it very difficult anyway. I can see exactly how those who maybe made more use or the EU freedoms in the UK must feel incredibly isolated and cut off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne



    The EU is full of flaws and glitches and the odd massive unforseen problem here and there but I think for the most part it works pretty well and we aren't really at each others throats.
    It just seems like an awful lot to just walk away from. I'd find it very difficult anyway. I can see exactly how those who maybe made more use or the EU freedoms in the UK must feel incredibly isolated and cut off.

    Absolutely. People seem to take a peaceful, stable Europe for granted and forget that the past decades of peace and prosperity stand in stark contrast to the utter destruction of the World Wars and all the imperial wars and revolutions which preceded them. Many speak as if there has been some massive decline in society, but blissfully go on about their lives seemingly oblivious to the fact that only a few other parts of the world grant similar levels of peace, freedom, equality and overall standards of life to those which we enjoy in the EU.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Absolutely. People seem to take a peaceful, stable Europe for granted and forget that the past decades of peace and prosperity stand in stark contrast to the utter destruction of the World Wars and all the imperial wars and revolutions which preceded them. Many speak as if there has been some massive decline in society, but blissfully go on about their lives seemingly oblivious to the fact that only a few other parts of the world grant similar levels of peace, freedom, equality and overall standards of life to those which we enjoy in the EU.

    In the USA, there is a significant level in many urban areas of great deprivation and racially inspired poverty. Much of the prison population are from the black community, much more than their proportion of society.

    I do not see that kind of think within the EU.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭A Little Pony


    Ho
    Leave the EU to go into a mad partnership with the Daily Telegraph, UKIP, England and the right wing of the tory party.

    Sure what could go wrong? :pac::pac::pac:
    How? You would just be leaving the EU and deciding your own destiny.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Ho

    How? You would just be leaving the EU and deciding your own destiny.

    Like leaving a public service pensionable job to sell whelks on the quays. Sure, you might do well at it, but then again ......


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    How? You would just be leaving the EU and deciding your own destiny.

    We ARE deciding our own destiny within the EU.

    Outside the EU, we would have "the Daily Telegraph, UKIP, England and the right wing of the tory party" deciding our destiny for us - with us being basically a larger version of the Isle of Man.

    Thankfully instead we have plenty of like minded/sized countries within the EU with whom we can cooperate to ensure the mutual advantage of all, rather than having to turn tail and run away.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭A Little Pony


    View wrote: »
    How? You would just be leaving the EU and deciding your own destiny.

    We ARE deciding our own destiny within the EU.

    Outside the EU, we would have "the Daily Telegraph, UKIP, England and the right wing of the tory party" deciding our destiny for us - with us being basically a larger version of the Isle of Man.

    Thankfully instead we have plenty of like minded/sized countries within the EU with whom we can cooperate to ensure the mutual advantage of all, rather than having to turn tail and run away.
    You use the euro as currency, a failing currency across Europe. You have no say on EU immigration into Ireland. You are deciding nothing but if you are happy to sell your sovereignty, ok.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,760 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    You use the euro as currency, a failing currency across Europe. You have no say on EU immigration into Ireland. You are deciding nothing but if you are happy to sell your sovereignty, ok.

    It would be nice to actually debate with you, but sweeping statements condensed into single sentences are hard to engage with unfortunately. I find it remarkable, and I mean genuinely remarkable, that many commentators write about Europe as if it were some dilapidating post-apocalyptic wasteland. If the EU is so appalling to you, if immigration is such a problem, the Euro failing, and our sovereignty long sold out --- what is the great example we can look to then in the hope of saving ourselves from our prosperous peaceful comfort?

    What is it that you are actually suggesting we do? Are you suggesting that we all pull out of the EU and pursue completely independent agendas and in this Utopian society we will negotiate wondrous and wholly advantageous treaties with economies all over the world and there will never be austerity or financial crises ever again?

    It's easy to point out the flaws of the EU, it is always easy to criticise the incumbent paradigm. But are you really suggesting that a return to the old Europe, a loose affiliation of nations with different laws and directions, is the answer in a world where the influence of individual European nations has continued to decline?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    You use the euro as currency, a failing currency across Europe.

    The Euro is the second most widely traded currency on the international financial markets. It's rather bizarre to claim it is failing, unless you are prepared to claim that that the international financial markets are completely wrong all day, every day for (almost) two decades now. :-)

    It does seem strange though that it is Sterling that has dramatically lost value against the Euro - perhaps, Sterling is even more of a failing currency? :-)
    You have no say on EU immigration into Ireland.

    Of course we do. There is no one forcing us to be an EU member, instead we choose to be an EU member and to have our fellow EU citizens working with us to work for the betterment of both Ireland and the wider EU.

    If we didn't like that, we'd leave, although, as we can see from the Brexit UK example, that would just mean having non-EU countries queuing up to insist we allow increased immigration from those countries as the price of future FTAs.
    You are deciding nothing but if you are happy to sell your sovereignty, ok.

    We are perfectly happy with our sovereignty - as the UK government white paper on Brexit points out, EU membership hasn't effected their (or our) sovereignty, I presume you won't dispute the claim of a Brexit government? :-)

    And we are deciding our future in cooperation with the other EU member states, not running away and pretending that doing so will make problems (and opportunities) disappear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    You use the euro as currency, a failing currency across Europe. You have no say on EU immigration into Ireland. You are deciding nothing but if you are happy to sell your sovereignty, ok.

    A failing currency? Have a look at the value of the pound sterling against the euro over the course of the past year on this page

    Or over the past two years if you prefer.

    Why not the past ten years?

    And yes. We had little issue with immigration before the single market. There's a reason for that: the only way you can absolutely guarantee to prevent foreigners from coming is to trash your economy. That will do the trick. You won't have any immigrants, but you'll sure have a lot of emigrants. But then your unfortunates only become somebody else's problem.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,583 ✭✭✭Mal-Adjusted



    Am I the only one expecting to see the question of Ireland returning to Britain come up across the water? With lots of "but they really want to be British again"?

    Ate you saying that that might come up as a realistic suggestion or that the telegraph, daily mail etc. will try to spin a narrative that we're falling over ourselves to rejoin so their readers can feel better?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Most people think about the EU in broad brushes. Too much integration, superstate coming, no wars in Europe for donkeys, them vs us, ah sure the Euro is great isn't it. These are all very important things to consider surely but to some degree these are just soundbites.

    What the EU also is or really is I should say is a framework for common trade, administration, work, travel and general co-existence and a gazillion other things. And at that it is the most successful attempt at such a common framework yet. And the most equal too. It is a club of voluntary and equal members after all. With elected representatives. Who have votes and vetos. Where there's still disagreement there a proper procedures and courts of law. Like in a proper setup.

    It positively regulates and organises so many aspects of our daily we hardly ever think about. From workers rights to product and safety standards. Agriculture. Industry, Technology standards. It makes sure nobody dares to bring stuff onto the supermarket shelves that are likely to poison us. Or that factories don't pollute your rivers. Or that your fridge and your microwave and your kettle adheres to safety standards and don't just explode tomorrow. Or that mobile phone operators don't rip us off. The list is endless and I can't do it justice even if I tried rambling on and on. It simply goes through every aspect of our lives. And we are not talking about it, hardly notice it, because it works. People only ever talk about the things that don't work and what the clickbait headlines want them to talk about.

    But if there was no EU tomorrow it would be a very rude awakening. Only then we would quickly realise what it actually is beyond those silly Angelas lapdog soundbites.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    this would all be greatly simplified if we would just see sense and return to the UK or at least Commonwealth fold. This is a line that is going to be promoted with increasing shrillness as events unfold.

    I think we can expect a lot more assinine articles like this from the likes of the odious Mr Heffer. And others. Let's not be fooled, eh?

    The Snickers Man crystal ball vindicated again!!

    Article in The Times by the lovely Melanie Phillips (lovely if you like Islamophobic climate-change-skeptic witches) again decries the very concept of Irish nationhood and independence. Unfortunately it's behind a pay wall but if you can stomach paying Rupert Murdoch to read her drivel it's here


    Excerpts include
    [should].. Westminster [..]tear up the Good Friday agreement and bid farewell to Northern Ireland? No, because it has an obligation to the Unionists; and because the claim to unite Ireland is tenuous since Ireland itself has a tenuous claim to nationhood, having seceded from Britain as the Irish Free State only in 1922."

    And
    “Scottish nationalism and Irish republicanism are cultural phenomena rooted in romanticism and myth and hatred of the other in the form of the English or the Protestants.”

    She also derides both Scotland's SNP and Sinn Fein as wanting only to “reclaim powers from Westminster in order to surrender them to Brussels”.

    The right wing of the British Establishment, including the military, are getting very worried at the prospect of an independent Ireland being sucked in to a wider strategic realignment, not involving Britain, which is very likely following the probable demise of NATO in its current form.

    The "dog whistle" diplomacy heralded by the likes of Ms Phillips and Mr Heffer is going to become a lot louder and more insistent in weeks and months to come.

    Get ready for it.


    PS If anybody has rights to access the entire article it might be nice to see it. Just saying. ;)


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