Irish Brexit

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

Just Google "88% Ireland EU". Example result:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

It's a fantasy to suggest Ireland is anywhere close to leaving the EU. It's probably the most pro-EU country of all.

Amongst full time students that support was 99%. So most of our future political leaders appear to be pro-EU.


As for selling our fish , you only need to look at how Michael Grove has "taken back control" of in-shore fishing. And then promised foreign countries rights to UK fish after Brexit.

Samaris

I remember seeing a list of countries by their Europhilic tendency and Ireland was actually fairly high up the list. Weren't right at the top, but were in the top five or six at the time. It has probably changed since though. I'm fairly sure I saw this list near the start of the Brexit campaign and it was probably a year or so out of date then.

Inquitus

Samaris wrote: »

I remember seeing a list of countries by their Europhilic tendency and Ireland was actually fairly high up the list. Weren't right at the top, but were in the top five or six at the time. It has probably changed since though. I'm fairly sure I saw this list near the start of the Brexit campaign and it was probably a year or so out of date then.

Last poll I saw had us at 88% in favour of remaining in the EU, doubt it has changed, makes us one of the most favourable nations to the EU in the EU!

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0509/873610-eu_poll/

Jim2007

Samaris wrote: »

I remember seeing a list of countries by their Europhilic tendency and Ireland was actually fairly high up the list. Weren't right at the top, but were in the top five or six at the time. It has probably changed since though. I'm fairly sure I saw this list near the start of the Brexit campaign and it was probably a year or so out of date then.

Good luck in finding a reference for that!!!!! In the meantime here is another survey to the contrary: https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/irish-most-optimistic-about-eu-s-future-eurobarometer-autumn-2016_en

Samaris

Jim2007 wrote: »

Good luck in finding a reference for that!!!!! In the meantime here is another survey to the contrary: https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/irish-most-optimistic-about-eu-s-future-eurobarometer-autumn-2016_en

Errr...?

"Irish most optimistic about EU's future"
"Irish respondents were most likely to have a positive image of the EU, followed by Poland (!) and Romania"
"90% of Irish respondents are in favour of “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU”, joint 6th highest in the EU after Luxembourg (96%), Estonia (95%), Lithuania (95%), Latvia (94%), Spain (91%). The EU average was 81% with people in Austria (67%) and the United Kingdom (68%) least in favour."
"Support for the Euro is joint second highest in Ireland (and Slovakia) at 85% after Luxembourg (87%)."
"Irish (and Polish) respondents (78%) were the joint 6th highest to feel they are citizens of the EU after Luxembourg (92%), Malta (82%), Portugal (79%), Spain (79%) and Finland (79%)."

That...er...backs up my claim rather than the contrary. If anything, it shows the figures I vaguely remember have actually gone up. Are you sure you posted the right link?

Fratton Fred

Jim2007 wrote: »

Good luck in finding a reference for that!!!!! In the meantime here is another survey to the contrary: https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/irish-most-optimistic-about-eu-s-future-eurobarometer-autumn-2016_en

Samaris wrote: »

Errr...?

"Irish most optimistic about EU's future"
"Irish respondents were most likely to have a positive image of the EU, followed by Poland (!) and Romania"
"90% of Irish respondents are in favour of “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU”, joint 6th highest in the EU after Luxembourg (96%), Estonia (95%), Lithuania (95%), Latvia (94%), Spain (91%). The EU average was 81% with people in Austria (67%) and the United Kingdom (68%) least in favour."
"Support for the Euro is joint second highest in Ireland (and Slovakia) at 85% after Luxembourg (87%)."
"Irish (and Polish) respondents (78%) were the joint 6th highest to feel they are citizens of the EU after Luxembourg (92%), Malta (82%), Portugal (79%), Spain (79%) and Finland (79%)."

That...er...backs up my claim rather than the contrary. If anything, it shows the figures I vaguely remember have actually gone up. Are you sure you posted the right link?

I think we need a quick understanding of definitions.

Europhillic - having admiration for the European Union
Europhobic - having a fear of, or opposition to the European Union

wpd

I am concerned that Ireland will be flooded with east european migrants after brexit that are currently going to the UK

this doesnt seem to be getting discussed at all, impact on our schools and health service would be huge.

Am i wrong in thinking this is going to be an issue for Ireland???

johnnyskeleton

wpd wrote: »

I am concerned that Ireland will be flooded with east european migrants after brexit that are currently going to the UK

this doesnt seem to be getting discussed at all, impact on our schools and health service would be huge.

Am i wrong in thinking this is going to be an issue for Ireland???

It's possible but it seems unlikely. Depending on how the negotiations go, the Existing EU nationals in the UK could get to retain the right to permanent reside and the right to build up to permanent residence in the UK and so they wouldn't have to leave at all.

But assuming they can't stay in the UK, they would need to have a job to come to in Ireland or at least prospects of same. If they don't then they would return home or move elsewhere to get a job. They wouldn't come to Ireland purely on spec.

If they do come over because there are jobs here, then great. More workers = more tax = better for the economy. Impact on schools and health service could be a factor, but that is no different to the current situation because the problems we have with those systems isn't going away and it isn't going to fix itself. If the possibility of additional workers is sufficient to make the Irish government focus a bit more on health and education then that is a good thing.

Calina

wpd wrote: »

I am concerned that Ireland will be flooded with east european migrants after brexit that are currently going to the UK

this doesnt seem to be getting discussed at all, impact on our schools and health service would be huge.

Am i wrong in thinking this is going to be an issue for Ireland???

TBH of the issues we face post Brexit, I don't this is going to be top of the list. We absorbed large numbers in the past and a significant number went home during the recession.

As a general rule, I don't like to see the word "flooded" used in this context - it tends to dehumanise people coming here to a) make a better life for themselves and b) contribute to our society. There's an element of xenophobia about it.

Our health and education system have issues but in the grand scheme of things, I think those problems are procedural. A key item which floods our health system is alcohol related illnesses and related emergency injuries. Most of that is home grown. In other words, rather than complaining about people who come here to build their lives - and the general evidence in the UK is that arriving EU workers tend to contribute to society rather than cost it - we need to look at the issues we create for ourselves. I've worked with a large number of foreigners and I've also had hobbies which included large numbers of French and Polish people.

Flooding the place is not how I would describe their contribution to society. They've added to the country in a positive manner.

In any case, people tend to go where there is work - and the economies of a lot of the Eastern European countries are generating work and as a result, the numbers moving out is falling and increased numbers are going home. They will not be coming to Ireland if there is little to no work for them, or if what work is available doesn't make it worth their while. The cost of living in Ireland will be making it unattractive. I know people in IT who wanted out because the salaries were not worth their while because Dublin just was too expensive to stay.

murphaph

I think Ireland is also less of a soft touch when it comes to claiming benefits (believe it or not!). There's a habitual residence test which must be passed before a raft of benefits can be claimed.

We may see a further tightening of the system to force EU migrants who have failed to find employment within a short period of time to return home, as is the practice in many EU countries. The UK of course never bothered trying this before opting for the nuclear option. I would hope we would!

Capt'n Midnight

Unlike the UK we would need a proper referendum to leave.
An advisory Yes/No just won't do as the constitution would need to be amended. So it would have the full wording of exactly what would be involved. No fudging over a Green, White and Orange exit that would appear soft or hard depending on the observer.

So the referendum commission would have to send out the explanatory booklets after they've been vetted.

There is no party pushing this either. All the major political parties with the exception of SF have been pro-EU since day 1. And the SF vote would probably be cancelled by the people who would vote against any change SF wanted regardless of what the issue was.

People with higher education and higher status on the ABC scale are more likely to both vote Remain and to vote in the first place. Amongst full time students it was 99% in that poll. And then consider it's likely that the poll would have included SF voters too.

Ted Plain

Samaris wrote: »

I remember seeing a list of countries by their Europhilic tendency and Ireland was actually fairly high up the list. Weren't right at the top, but were in the top five or six at the time. It has probably changed since though. I'm fairly sure I saw this list near the start of the Brexit campaign and it was probably a year or so out of date then.

I saw this in one of the German newspapers a year or two ago.

The caption accompanying it read "The Irish fear the EU's bureaucracy less than they do their own government's incompetence".

Absolutely spot on, in my opinion.

Impetus

This is just part of an ongoing Anglo-Saxon drum beat in the media.

On CNBC the other day, (US version) they claimed that European shares were severely hit - meanwhile the Stoxx 600 (top 600 shares in Europe - which includes CRH and its ilk) were up 0.40% on the day. The DAX was up 0.5% as was the CAC40. Even Bloomberg (who charge $24'000 pa for their feed) has an ongoing story on the 'common currency crisis'. What crisis?

Sterling has fallen from being worth €1.71 in July 2001 to €1.137 today. A devaluation of 33.5%.

It is part of the Murdoch media fed Brexit/Bush red neck brigade, and how they let themselves be taken advantage of by certain media and political entities.

A properly functioning political system needs high quality education for the entire population. Else we will have zombies pressing political buttons. A prime example of good education is Switzerland which succeeds to deliver high quality products and services and good governance. In Switzerland (as in France, Germany etc) you are professionally educated and have a profession whether you are a plumber or heart surgeon. And society holds all occupations with similar esteem.

crystal hedgehog

This is 5 years after you posed your question and the so-called !recovery" expounded by Enda and the Blueshirts must be above in Dublin because I don't see much evidence of it round here!
We need to take the example of Britain and do an IREXIT! The EU is cannibalising Ireland!:(:( That's my take on it anyway!

BillyBobBS

crystal hedgehog wrote: »

This is 5 years after you posed your question and the so-called !recovery" expounded by Enda and the Blueshirts must be above in Dublin because I don't see much evidence of it round here!
We need to take the example of Britain and do an IREXIT! The EU is cannibalising Ireland!:(:( That's my take on it anyway!

I find the lack of critical thinking on the EU in Ireland utterly baffling. It's like the Irish have a complete blind spot when it comes to Europe. That is going to cost us dearly in the coming years.

tomwaterford

BillyBobBS wrote: »

I find the lack of critical thinking on the EU in Ireland utterly baffling. It's like the Irish have a complete blind spot when it comes to Europe. That is going to cost us dearly in the coming years.

There is a worrying amount of people blindly follow all the eu says as good


It doesn't have irelands interests at heart,even regarding brexit....so I wouldn't be in favour of leaving the border question as a bargaining chip to the eu

jimmycrackcorm

crystal hedgehog wrote:

This is 5 years after you posed your question and the so-called !recovery" expounded by Enda and the Blueshirts must be above in Dublin because I don't see much evidence of it round here! We need to take the example of Britain and do an IREXIT! The EU is cannibalising Ireland! That's my take on it anyway!

You must be living in back of beyond because all the stats show differently. Ireland is and has done well out of the EU. There's not much point in blaming the EU for our recession just because we didn't stop ourselves from partying.

tomwaterford wrote:

It doesn't have irelands interests at heart,even regarding brexit....so I wouldn't be in favour of leaving the border question as a bargaining chip to the eu

The blame lies squarely with the Brits. If anyone is going to try use the border as a bargaining chip it will be them.

Were it not for May's dependence on the unionists, we would be seeing border checks at the ports and airports on this island.

First Up

crystal hedgehog wrote:

The EU is cannibalising Ireland! That's my take on it anyway!

Any examples?

listermint

Like moths to a flame,





any of you lads got any thoughts on the packed motorways and 5.5% unemployment ?

James Brown

I think we'd be lost without the EU attempting to keep the country in check. Motor insurance scams, tax 'issues'. Thankfully we've the British looking into the NAMA/NI affair.

seamus

tomwaterford wrote: »

It doesn't have irelands interests at heart,even regarding brexit....so I wouldn't be in favour of leaving the border question as a bargaining chip to the eu

So the EU tells the UK that the NI border is a redline issue for Brexit negotiations, yet somehow that reads to you as "The EU doesn't care about Ireland".

The EU cares about Ireland as a member of the EU. The EU as a group has the EU's best interests at heart. It can't have a single country's interests at heart because then it wouldn't be a union.

This is pretty typical anti-EU thinking. That the EU should treat Ireland as a special child. When Ireland gets treated as a equal member of the union, somehow that translates as an attack on Ireland. "Treat me special, so I can feel equal".

The EU is a union. Unions require cooperation and compromise. It's not the "everybody be nice to Ireland" gang.

tomwaterford

seamus wrote: »

So the EU tells the UK that the NI border is a redline issue for Brexit negotiations, yet somehow that reads to you as "The EU doesn't care about Ireland".

The EU cares about Ireland as a member of the EU. The EU as a group has the EU's best interests at heart. It can't have a single country's interests at heart because then it wouldn't be a union.

This is pretty typical anti-EU thinking. That the EU should treat Ireland as a special child. When Ireland gets treated as a equal member of the union, somehow that translates as an attack on Ireland. "Treat me special, so I can feel equal".

The EU is a union. Unions require cooperation and compromise. It's not the "everybody be nice to Ireland" gang.

I don't really care about the eu tbh.....and it takes an extreme level of naivety to think the eu cares about families and farmland straddling the border
(I think the eu will compromise on any/all border issues here,to achieve agreement on issues which would financially affect rest of europe,with little regard to irelands econmy)


But I do fully think ireland should use the bind the British find themselves in,to begin effectively dismantling the border and increasing its role/influence in the north.....cross border tourism efforts etc...a Russia-lite on eastern European affairs if ya want an example

seamus

tomwaterford wrote: »

I think the eu will compromise on any/all border issues here,to achieve agreement on issues which would financially affect rest of europe,with little regard to irelands econmy

...and you've done it again.

Ireland is a member of the EU. If it affects Ireland's economy, it affects the EU's economy. And vice-versa. If the agreement is good for the EU economy, then it is good for the Irish economy.

There is no us -v- them. Ireland's economy does not sit outside of and in opposition to the EU's.

The EU does what is best for the EU, including Ireland. Not what is best for the EU, excluding Ireland.

But I do fully think ireland should use the bind the British find themselves in,to begin effectively dismantling the border and increasing its role/influence in the north.....cross border tourism efforts etc...a Russia-lite on eastern European affairs if ya want an example

I do agree that the Irish government should exploit every mess and misstep by the UK government to present the Republic as the benevolent neighbour to the south who just wants to help. If for nothing else than to further reduce sectarian tension.

eeguy

tomwaterford wrote: »

But I do fully think ireland should use the bind the British find themselves in,to begin effectively dismantling the border and increasing its role/influence in the north.....cross border tourism efforts etc...a Russia-lite on eastern European affairs if ya want an example

All this stuff already exists.

tomwaterford

seamus wrote: »

...and you've done it again.

Ireland is a member of the EU. If it affects Ireland's economy, it affects the EU's economy. And vice-versa. If the agreement is good for the EU economy, then it is good for the Irish economy.

There is no us -v- them. Ireland's economy does not sit outside of and in opposition to the EU's.

The EU does what is best for the EU, including Ireland. Not what is best for the EU, excluding Ireland.
.

So if something negatively affects ireland....but 100% positive for the rest of the eu, they'll drop it....so as not to negatively affect ireland??


I find this type of claim hard to believe if I'm honest,ireland deos not owe the eu anything,1st job of any irish politians is loom after ireland first,the eu will look after itself




As for cross border,there's no reason now,not to ramp up funding on more initiatives etc.....look at how Russia is ramping up presence and influence from a distance in eastern Europe

crystal hedgehog

First Up wrote: »

Any examples?

Yes- the amount of people who worked solidly until the crash of 2008 and haven't had much or even any proper jobs since.
The several thousand families who are homeless and the predictions that several thousand more will be made homeless next year.
These tow problems are because the EU forced us to take a bailout entirely on their terms and because instead of making the bond-holders pay,our politicians decided to make the Irish people pay what are, essentially, GAMBLING DEBTS!
The EU making us take Muslim migrants,many of whom are not even from Syria or Iraq but pose as "refugees" to get the freebies and access to Irish women whom they have been brought up to believe "kafir" and thus fair game, even when they CLEARLY say NO! Anyone who would refute this must blame the women of Cologne and think they deserved being molested! Victim-blaming is horrible and cruel but all too common in human nature,sadly!
Other EU nations being allowed to fish Irish waters and sell the catch for their own profit, thus making life difficult for Irish fishermen/women!
Has anyone else anything they would like to add?

crystal hedgehog

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

You must be living in back of beyond because all the stats show differently. Ireland is and has done well out of the EU. There's not much point in blaming the EU for our recession just because we didn't stop ourselves from partying.



The blame lies squarely with the Brits. If anyone is going to try use the border as a bargaining chip it will be them.

Were it not for May's dependence on the unionists, we would be seeing border checks at the ports and airports on this island.

The British government didn't want a BREXIT but the majority of ordinary English and Welsh people do, especially the working poor whom the EU has done absolutely sweet FA. to help! I am a dual citizen and I voted LEAVE because all my friends, who would be considered the working poor, are absolutely sick of it! We tried to move to England in 2013 and the place was under miasma of misery, as if the ordinary people feel they have little hope- that can also be blamed on Tory austerity and particularly their benefit sanction legislation and the draconian way they have implemented their version of JobPath! But the EU is also to blame for wages having been depressed for so long by immigrants willing to work for peanuts and rents are so high due to the long ques of prospective tenants,swelled by so many immigrants,ordinary working people are struggling to survive! I personally like Polish people- I went to school with their sons and daughters at my English Catholic school and we have a Polish friend so this is not bigotry nor racism- the East Europeans are being exploited and it's the greedy employers who are to blame backed up by the EU and politicians!
And I suppose it depends on what one classes as "back of beyond";I don't live in or near Dublin anyway!

First Up

crystal hedgehog wrote:

Yes- the amount of people who worked solidly until the crash of 2008 and haven't had much or even any proper jobs since. The several thousand families who are homeless and the predictions that several thousand more will be made homeless next year. These tow problems are because the EU forced us to take a bailout entirely on their terms and because instead of making the bond-holders pay,our politicians decided to make the Irish people pay what are, essentially, GAMBLING DEBTS! The EU making us take Muslim migrants,many of whom are not even from Syria or Iraq but pose as "refugees" to get the freebies and access to Irish women whom they have been brought up to believe "kafir" and thus fair game, even when they CLEARLY say NO! Anyone who would refute this must blame the women of Cologne and think they deserved being molested! Victim-blaming is horrible and cruel but all too common in human nature,sadly! Other EU nations being allowed to fish Irish waters and sell the catch for their own profit, thus making life difficult for Irish fishermen/women! Has anyone else anything they would like to add?

Ah, those sort of examples.

It was a global crash and we were responsible (thanks Bertie) for our part in it. The EU helped us out of it and we now have one of the fastest growing economies, lowest unemployment rates and lowest borrowing rates in the developed world. Did you miss that bit?

The fisheries stuff has repeatedly been shown to be nonsense - we don't and never could have the capacity to fully fish our own waters. We get it back a hundred fold in other ways.

The islamic stuff is just hysterical rubbish.

Meanwhile we have hundreds of thousands of people in well paid jobs thanks to advanced companies setting up here to access the EU market.

Maybe you don't have the education, skills or talent to be part of it. Who are you blaming for that?

Jim2007

It is actually very simple....

Ireland live blood is exporting, we have been producing a positive balance of trade for over thirty years. Normally countries who do this have very strong currencies, but we like Germany, benefit in trading in what to us is an undervalued currency at no cost to our exchequer. If we were to exit the EU, we would be completely wiped out because we simply do not have the resources to devalue a currency in order to protect our economy.

To put the into perspective here in Switzerland, the central bank (SNB) tried to defend the franc and protect our industry. After several months it failed and in so doing we ended hold Euro bonds equal to the deficit of the seven largest Euro group states. Now the SNB's reserves are about 5,000 times that of the CBI and they could not do it. The consequence is that two of the four main employers in my town have had to move across the border to Germany.

Any idea about exiting the EU must address where we would find the resources necessary to defend the punt and protect our economy other wise it just total BS.