Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2016-17

Trebor176

Deleted User wrote: »

Does anyone remember the 3 day thunderstorm in Dublin was it back in 2006 ? around October , there was snow and everything. That was a bit mad.

I don't remember the snow, but I do remember the thunder. I was doing school exams at the time, and there were plenty of rumbles with the odd one startling the students in the hall I can recall standing outside with friends at home with the thunder rumbling around. looking up, I could see the clouds moving in a circular motion. Finally, I have a newspaper cutting of a photo of lightning in Dublin. The bolt looked like an illuminated tornado.

Trebor176

Trebor176 wrote: »

I don't remember the snow, but I do remember the thunder. I was doing school exams at the time, and there were plenty of rumbles with the odd one startling the students in the hall I can recall standing outside with friends at home with the thunder rumbling around. looking up, I could see the clouds moving in a circular motion. Finally, I have a newspaper cutting of a photo of lightning in Dublin. The bolt looked like an illuminated tornado.

Yeah it was so weird for 3 days, that was unusual, I remember driving up on the N7 around Saggart an seeing a huge bolt of lightning hit the ground over the Newcastle area I think it was.

The snow was on the hills. I remember driving up the Dublin Mountains towards Johnny Foxe's and it was pegging Snow and flashing Lightning, the most unusual thing ever.

Surprised more people don't remember.

Met.ie still says dry tonight, however Radar shows Rain heading towards the Wexford coast, and looks like it might track this way if it doesn't die in the meantime.

pedigree 6

I heard a clap of thunder in the distance. Wo hoo.:D

Oh wait better make sure the phone is charged.:pac:

ArKl0w

The storm approaching in the Celtic sea should hit East Wexford and east Wicklow before midnight and should be calling at all stations after that as far as Newry by morning
How often it's driver blows it's whistle by then remains to be seen

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I heard a clap of thunder in the distance. Wo hoo.:D

Oh wait better make sure the phone is charged.:pac:

Very windy here,I haven't been out for a look yet but my thunder headache is getting worse

ArKl0w

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Met.ie still says dry tonight, however Radar shows Rain heading towards the Wexford coast, and looks like it might track this way if it doesn't die in the meantime.

Some strong colours even on met.ie's. radar and they just talk of patchy rain and drizzle ??? Lightning too not far off hook head and we've just had s tv forecast of the odd bit of patchy rain and drizzle?
Hmmmmm....,

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

Very windy here,I haven't been out for a look yet but my thunder headache is getting worse

You should work for lightning radar. We could just turn your head around slowly to see which direction the thunderstorms are coming from.:D

I'm mocking of course. Some people do get them.

ArKl0w

ArKl0w wrote: »

Some strong colours even on met.ie's. radar and they just talk of patchy rain and drizzle ??? Lightning too not far off hook head and we've just had s tv forecast of the odd bit of patchy rain and drizzle?
Hmmmmm....,

Here's hoping for some (probably final) action for the year !!!!

glightning

In my eyes, the whole system is falling apart now. The storms in Northern England are just about to dissipate - and the stuff to the SE of Wexford is falling apart too. I think that will be the end of all activity for now to be honest.

glightning

The Sat24 animation is showing the updrafts rapidly dying out.

en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

ArKl0w

Well the smaller ones (compared to what's over Biscay) are weakening alright
The storm approaching Wexford appears to have no sferics for the last half hour

However what's over central NW France is heading NNW

You can see its potential trajectory in the following link
It's basically going to take the same route through west Cornwall and into the Celtic sea west of Pembrokeshire as the Wexford blob did today
The difference is,the current French stuff is much much bigger and much more electrified

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/france.html

pedigree 6

glightning wrote: »

In my eyes, the whole system is falling apart now. The storms in Northern England are just about to dissipate - and the stuff to the SE of Wexford is falling apart too. I think that will be the end of all activity for now to be honest.

It's finito. It's over, so near and yet so far and it's going up the irish sea.
No more sparks. Good night i'm off to bed.:rolleyes:

JCX BXC

No strikes off the system off wexford for at least 30mins.

glightning

Ireland is not, and never has been within the plume proper this time. We are too far to the west on the cold side of the precipitation with this one in the much cooler airmass. Dewpoints are in the upper teens across the water, we are just around 10c right now. It's a different story in France as they still have high dewpoints and warm airmass in place.

This time round, we missed the heat, humidity, and storms unfortunately.

ArKl0w

glightning wrote: »

Ireland is not, and never has been within the plume proper this time. We are too far to the west on the cold side of the precipitation with this one in the much cooler airmass. Dewpoints are in the upper teens across the water, we are just around 10c right now. It's a different story in France as they still have high dewpoints and warm airmass in place.

This time round, we missed the heat, humidity, and storms unfortunately.

I know but that only counts if we were making our own storms
Here we are talking about importing storms made elsewhere
Different story altogether

glightning

We'll see, but I suspect that even at the mid levels any storms will never make it this far NW. If you carefully watch the lightning activity in that system over France, it is continuing to move to the NNE whilst rapidly dying out in the west. Southern England is best positioned right now for any chance of something from France.

But again, let's see! Would be happy to be proven wrong (though of course, I'm up here in NI where it is even less likely!)

Hal1

Forecast from ME:

Some thundery rain will move onto the Southeast coast early tonight and will move Northwards up through Eastern coastal counties during the night hours. It will stay mostly dry elsewhere with broken cloud and a few mist patches forming in a light to moderate Northerly breeze. Lowest temperatures 9 to 13 degrees Celsius, coolest in the west.

.

ArKl0w

glightning wrote: »

We'll see, but I suspect that even at the mid levels any storms will never make it this far NW. If you carefully watch the lightning activity in that system over France, it is continuing to move to the NNE whilst rapidly dying out in the west. Southern England is best positioned right now for any chance of something from France.

But again, let's see! Would be happy to be proven wrong (though of course, I'm up here in NI where it is even less likely!)

Aye, I'm pretty much looking for decaying remnants which I wouldn't rule out surviving as far as near Wexford anyway,certainly out of that 2nd lot
I shan't be staying up for it but won't be annoyed if awoken later obviously

vicwatson

Now met eireann tweet

Thundery rain along SE & E coastal counties overnight, mostly dry elsewhere. Some mist patches also. Lows 9 to 13 deg, coolest in W.

ArKl0w

Aye that's now casting from met Eireann
It doesn't look like there'll be sparks in the first lot but the 2nd looks more probable,that's going to be overnight though

glightning

ArKl0w wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

We'll see, but I suspect that even at the mid levels any storms will never make it this far NW. If you carefully watch the lightning activity in that system over France, it is continuing to move to the NNE whilst rapidly dying out in the west. Southern England is best positioned right now for any chance of something from France.

But again, let's see! Would be happy to be proven wrong (though of course, I'm up here in NI where it is even less likely!)

Aye, I'm pretty much looking for decaying remnants which I wouldn't rule out surviving as far as near Wexford anyway,certainly out of that 2nd lot
I shan't be staying up for it but won't be annoyed if awoken later obviously

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you man. Hope you get some flashes later on.

We had some bonus night time lightning here last week when some storms tracked up to the west of here for a few hours. Just intermittent sheet lightning from my location in Co.Antrim but lasted a few hours all in all and better than nothing!

Best storm this year was the night time one that tracked north from Dublin back in June. That became a violent four hour long storm over NI that night and was follow with 3 - 4 hours of thunder the next day. Easily the best TS activity for a number of years all in all.

glightning

For me, the most painful bust this year was the event in July where the activity sparked up the west coast of Ireland into western Scotland, then completely missed Ireland, and ended up completely exploding over the Irish sea the next morning and into the Lake District in England.

A very hard pill to swallow that one..... If those cells that fired in the Irish sea that morning had fired over Ireland during the night before it would easily have been the best event in 20 to 30 years.

prinzeugen

Looks like the east will be lucky to get rain never mind thunder.

All fizzled out so far..

JCX BXC

24c tomorrow god.

Nibs05

meanwhile in Manchester

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-astonishing-lightning-strikes-illuminating-11883154

lol, funny that all died once it got near carlow. Oh well time for zzzzzzzz ( as usual)

MidMan25

Very heavy rain in Cork City just now!

Meteorite58

Convective Weather saying some potential but uncertain over the Irish Sea this evening possibly moving into Eastern Northern Ireland / SW Scotland.

Recent sferic in Galway.

Meteorite58

UPDATE 08:20 UTC SLGT shifted a little farther SE and LOW extended into extreme south coast, based on latest guidance. Parts of N/NW England, N + W Midlands and Wales need monitoring for the potential introduction of a SLGT - there could be isolated but explosive thunderstorm development if the cap ~850mb can be eroded late afternoon into the evening

There does seem to be a better consensus for more scattered thunderstorm development to occur over the Irish Sea on Wednesday evening, this then ultimately advecting northwestwards into eastern Northern Ireland and perhaps SW Scotland. Some uncertainty surrounds this potential, but have issued a low-end SLGT, if nothing else to make this area stand out more.