Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2016-17

Deank

Just had some mental sparks and biblical rain out near Mondello, looks like the cell has passed over now, not much behind it, not hopeful of anymore tonight.

PauloMN

Fireworks in Trim a little while ago. Seems to have gone quiet now. There were a few close strikes.

Rock Lesnar

Can still see lightening and hear thunder but We seem to be just a little to far east of the main action here, still getting the heavy rain though...typical

crowther15

Gone very quite here in D15. Was some major flashes 45-50 mins ago (11pm)

Oscar Bravo

front is breaking up just as it approaches Dublin. still , good to see the reports flood in in the past hour.

fraxinus1

The lack of thunderstorm activity in west Dublin this year is frustrating. Very unlucky. Storms just seem to stay to far west. I cannot remember the last decent lightning flash and rumble of thunder I have seen/heard. Very disappointing again as I thought tonight would deliver. The cell stayed to far west. Another missed opportunity.

Calibos

Unplugging my €4000 worth of new PC, Monitor and Oculus Rift VR Headset from the mains and network just in case

Leaving the near 10 year old Plasma TV's that refuse to die or visibly deteriorate plugged in...just in case

dublinbusdude

We're overdue an Good Ol' Thunder/Lighting storm in the General Dublin area!! Only got a hour of thunder in on the Bank Holiday Monday in June (was camping with the Cubs in Larch Hill)

PukkaStukka

Fresh sparks still in Monaghan and around Dundalk

Elmer Blooker

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

front is breaking up just as it approaches Dublin. still , good to see the reports flood in in the past hour.

maybe not, look at the radar and at the co wicklow area, compare 2330 and 2345. straw clutching? probably.

Oscar Bravo

best chances at the moment are between Castleblayney and Crossmaglen, some seriously heavy approaching there now. very light and patchy around Dublin

Trebor176

Heavy rain in Clondalkin now for the last few minutes. I thought I just heard a faint rumble

prinzeugen

Trebor176 wrote: »

Heavy rain in Clondalkin now for the last few minutes. I thought I just heard a faint rumble

Just seen a distant flash to my WNW from Rathgar.

dublinbusdude

That's almost spot on with Navan a few minutes ago from Metcheck.com

tylercollins

I got lucky last night out my office window just outside of Derry!

Composite of 2 images.

Nice one !

Meteorite58

Some potential Sat evening towards the North of the country. Maybe offshore perhaps.

Meteorite58

Some convection getting going off the NW today, good areas of clear sky allowing for surface heating and enough instability to allow for some sparks . I wonder will it get closer to the coast.





Not much precipitation forecast though

Meteorite58

Tasty charts for England Tues Evening, big temps predicted up to 30C+ in places

Storm 10

Over in Lake Garda for a holiday and had a pretty spectacular storm this evening , no pics as I left the camera in the hotel

Meteorite58

Some Potential Monday it seems according to Convective Weather



Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Sep 2016

ISSUED 19:47 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening Atlantic upper trough will continue to dig southwards to the west of Iberia, while pivoting to the NE. This will allow northward advection of high a ThetaW airmass on the forward side of the upper trough, ahead of a cold front. Strong, near-parallel flow along this frontal boundary will likely result with episodes of line convection along the cold front, capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some isolated lightning - hence a fairly broad LOW threat level issued as the front migrates eastwards with time. Overall coverage of lightning is expected to be fairly small, if any. Given strong shear and low cloud bases, there may be scope for an isolated funnel/tornado.

Interestingly, ECMWF has been keen on developing some mid-level showers across parts of England during the day on Monday, but with little support from elsewhere so have tended to ignore this potential for now.

Overnight, as the upper trough begins to slowly disrupt, backing the upper flow, some destablisation may occur ahead of the cold front with hints of elevated convection advecting into and/or developing in-situ over parts of Devon/Cornwall late in the night, and perhaps also across the Channel Islands. Given notably steep mid-level lapse rates and strong DLS, there is scope for an upgrade to SLGT - but have refrained at this time due to a lack of cross-model agreement and also the close proximity to running into the next forecast period (for Tuesday).

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

Over in Lake Garda for a holiday and had a pretty spectacular storm this evening , no pics as I left the camera in the hotel

No pics?
It never happened so.

Oscar Bravo

Recent strike just west of Cliften

Bsal

Forecast precipitation rate for 2100z Monday, hopefully some sparks from it

ArKl0w

BBC forecast is suggesting thunderstorms developing over the Brest peninsula in France and through SW England fed by the strong heat over France and England may skirt the east coast of Ireland later today and tonight mixed into that weather front

DOCARCH

ArKl0w wrote: »

BBC forecast is suggesting thunderstorms developing over the Brest peninsula in France and through SW England fed by the strong heat over France and England may skirt the east coast of Ireland later today and tonight mixed into that weather front

Lots of storms into the SW UK already.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Siobhan did say the word 'thundery' in her forecast on radio this morning.

ArKl0w

Aye,

https://twitter.com/nigewhite/status/775627146589069312

https://twitter.com/nigewhite/status/775623804731138048


And the first report from that tweeter

https://twitter.com/nigewhite/status/775620493877608448


Those and more developing could very easily drift west as they go north

ArKl0w

Looking at the trajectory of those storms,Dublin Northwards could see sparks later today into tonight should they stay active

pedigree 6

Lots of sympathetic lightning going on across the irish sea and to the south east of us in the bay of Biscay.
What, it's a thing

http://www.lightningmaps.org/#y=48.4315;x=-2.9061;z=4;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=201;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=8;dl=8;dc=0;

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

Looking at the trajectory of those storms,Dublin Northwards could see sparks later today into tonight should they stay active

If they stay active they are all pointed this way.:P:P