Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2016-17

ArKl0w

It's about a 60% chance I think of noisy fireworks near the Irish Sea coasts this evening and tonight
New storms are firing up down south of Brest with a trajectory way west of the stuff now over Britain
One to watch

The breeze here is ENE which will help (if you want them coming this way that is )

ArKl0w

The Dragon Queen and her troops are coming

Jpmarn

Looking at the maps could these thunderstorms affect much of Ireland this evening our tonight. It looks like the showers situated west of Brest could be up the the south coast of Ireland at about teatime. Will the thundery activity die out be the time these clouds reach Ireland. At the moment there thunderstorms spreading up throughout western parts of England and Wales.

ArKl0w

See Attached,Biscay is on Fire at the moment,it's rare to see so much lightning all along that front
That system is heading towards southeast and east Ireland tonight

jimmynokia

Dublin is owed a huge lightning show.... there.... I said it...

JCX BXC

jimmynokia wrote: »

Dublin is owed a huge lightning show.... there.... I said it...

Are you actually serious every second actual lightning storm is either in or near Dublin, Dublin is owed absoutley nothing, especially not compared to the West.

511

Carnacalla wrote: »

Are you actually serious every second actual lightning storm is either in or near Dublin, Dublin is owed absoutley nothing, especially not compared to the West.

We've got nothing this year. The West/Northwest was blitzed by the first outbreak and the Midlands was hit a few weeks ago.

I'm about 10kms north of Dublin and all I got to see was 2 or 3 distant flashes of lightning and faint rumbles of thunder, that could easily be mistaken for a plane at Dublin Airport.

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

See Attached,Biscay is on Fire at the moment,it's rare to see so much lightning all along that front
That system is heading towards southeast and east Ireland tonight

I wonder will it though. I'm doubting this now.
Hope I'm wrong.

Elmer Blooker

Jpmarn wrote: »

Looking at the maps could these thunderstorms affect much of Ireland this evening our tonight. It looks like the showers situated west of Brest could be up the the south coast of Ireland at about teatime. Will the thundery activity die out be the time these clouds reach Ireland. At the moment there thunderstorms spreading up throughout western parts of England and Wales.

The Eagle Eagleton on the radio 20 mins ago said lightning flashes will probably be seen along the east coast tonight but the storms will stay out at sea.

JCX BXC

511 wrote: »

We've got nothing this year. The West/Northwest was blitzed by the first outbreak and the Midlands was hit a few weeks ago.

I'm about 10kms north of Dublin and all I got to see was 2 or 3 distant flashes of lightning and faint rumbles of thunder, that could easily be mistaken for a plane at Dublin Airport.

This year I've seen flights halted at the airport due to Thunderstorms!

A very small section (which included galway city) of the West got a large thunderstorm, that was it.

I've seen 1 flash since February, and that was about 2 weeks ago.

Trebor176

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The Eagle Eagleton on the radio 20 mins ago said lightning flashes will probably be seen along the east coast tonight but the storms will stay out at sea.

Usual case, unfortunately. There may be a lot of hype in terms of lightning hitting Dublin. However, as has been proven, those hoping for a dramatic light show in Dublin are often left disappointed.

Does anyone remember the 3 day thunderstorm in Dublin was it back in 2006 ? around October , there was snow and everything. That was a bit mad.

pad199207

If it's just going to b a case of lightning out to see forget it

Iancar29

Hold the boat!
12z is actually looking more optimistic on storms surviving across the Irish sea late tonight.


Mid level instability holding strong after the impressive build up across England tonday.


Another thing to keep chances alive is the strong DLS in place to sustain the cells.


So, if your along the east coast guys... charge z batteries :cool:

pedigree 6

Ok I'm getting excited again the thunderstorms are only 150kms from wexford.

On another note I wonder is Manchester still there.:D Fairly intense over there.

JCX BXC

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Ok I'm getting excited again the thunderstorms are only 150kms from wexford.

On another note I wonder is Manchester still there.:D Fairly intense over there.

Nothing's landed in the airport for ages, and nothing taking off now either.

km79

Carnacalla wrote: »

Nothing's landed in the airport for ages, and nothing taking off now either.

Champions league game in danger of being called off
I was over there Saturday was lovely

ArKl0w

Well I have my thunder headache,it's usually a good sign

SEPT 23 1989

City match called off due to the weather in Manchester hopefully we will get a bit of that later

Elmer Blooker

km79 wrote: »

Champions league game in danger of being called off

Match posponed.
It shows up nicely here and also a few "blobs" near Land's End as well.
http://de.sat24.com/de

Meteorite58

The size of those storms



A long way off yet ( would be cool crossing the ferry tonight to Roslare ),

fraxinus1

Met Eireann are not calling thunder storms over the east of Ireland tonight. It's been a disappointing season in west Dublin. No storm has passed directly over us. A few distant flashes once or twice this summer. I am not going to get to excited about tonight.

Hal1

A trip down to hook head tonight hmm....(work tomorrow, ahh s*ite).

squarecircles

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann are not calling thunder storms over the east of Ireland tonight. It's been a disappointing season in west Dublin. No storm has passed directly over us. A few distant flashes once or twice this summer. I am not going to get to excited about tonight.

Good chance of it happening so...

Meteorite58

That storm heading towards Wexford / Wicklow is still firing away and making ground

Calmcookie84

My dad is on route to his radio shack to disconnect his aerials. He couldn't hear anything on his radios with the storms in the UK

Darwin

It's a strange setup as the automated short range forecast on met.ie is showing light rainfall over the eastern part of the country at the moment and for the next couple of hours.

Meteorite58

Some very heavy localized rain in those storms

prinzeugen

Looks like the South coast is going to get all the fun and nothing for Dublin going by this.

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/expected-rainfall

jimmynokia

Carnacalla wrote: »

Are you actually serious every second actual lightning storm is either in or near Dublin, Dublin is owed absoutley nothing, especially not compared to the West.

Yeah I am we have had SFA

Trebor176

Deleted User wrote: »

Does anyone remember the 3 day thunderstorm in Dublin was it back in 2006 ? around October , there was snow and everything. That was a bit mad.

I don't remember the snow, but I do remember the thunder. I was doing school exams at the time, and there were plenty of rumbles with the odd one startling the students in the hall I can recall standing outside with friends at home with the thunder rumbling around. looking up, I could see the clouds moving in a circular motion. Finally, I have a newspaper cutting of a photo of lightning in Dublin. The bolt looked like an illuminated tornado.

Trebor176

Trebor176 wrote: »

I don't remember the snow, but I do remember the thunder. I was doing school exams at the time, and there were plenty of rumbles with the odd one startling the students in the hall I can recall standing outside with friends at home with the thunder rumbling around. looking up, I could see the clouds moving in a circular motion. Finally, I have a newspaper cutting of a photo of lightning in Dublin. The bolt looked like an illuminated tornado.

Yeah it was so weird for 3 days, that was unusual, I remember driving up on the N7 around Saggart an seeing a huge bolt of lightning hit the ground over the Newcastle area I think it was.

The snow was on the hills. I remember driving up the Dublin Mountains towards Johnny Foxe's and it was pegging Snow and flashing Lightning, the most unusual thing ever.

Surprised more people don't remember.

Met.ie still says dry tonight, however Radar shows Rain heading towards the Wexford coast, and looks like it might track this way if it doesn't die in the meantime.

pedigree 6

I heard a clap of thunder in the distance. Wo hoo.:D

Oh wait better make sure the phone is charged.:pac:

ArKl0w

The storm approaching in the Celtic sea should hit East Wexford and east Wicklow before midnight and should be calling at all stations after that as far as Newry by morning
How often it's driver blows it's whistle by then remains to be seen

ArKl0w

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I heard a clap of thunder in the distance. Wo hoo.:D

Oh wait better make sure the phone is charged.:pac:

Very windy here,I haven't been out for a look yet but my thunder headache is getting worse

ArKl0w

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Met.ie still says dry tonight, however Radar shows Rain heading towards the Wexford coast, and looks like it might track this way if it doesn't die in the meantime.

Some strong colours even on met.ie's. radar and they just talk of patchy rain and drizzle ??? Lightning too not far off hook head and we've just had s tv forecast of the odd bit of patchy rain and drizzle?
Hmmmmm....,

pedigree 6

ArKl0w wrote: »

Very windy here,I haven't been out for a look yet but my thunder headache is getting worse

You should work for lightning radar. We could just turn your head around slowly to see which direction the thunderstorms are coming from.:D

I'm mocking of course. Some people do get them.

ArKl0w

ArKl0w wrote: »

Some strong colours even on met.ie's. radar and they just talk of patchy rain and drizzle ??? Lightning too not far off hook head and we've just had s tv forecast of the odd bit of patchy rain and drizzle?
Hmmmmm....,

Here's hoping for some (probably final) action for the year !!!!

glightning

In my eyes, the whole system is falling apart now. The storms in Northern England are just about to dissipate - and the stuff to the SE of Wexford is falling apart too. I think that will be the end of all activity for now to be honest.

glightning

The Sat24 animation is showing the updrafts rapidly dying out.

en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

pedigree 6

glightning wrote: »

In my eyes, the whole system is falling apart now. The storms in Northern England are just about to dissipate - and the stuff to the SE of Wexford is falling apart too. I think that will be the end of all activity for now to be honest.

It's finito. It's over, so near and yet so far and it's going up the irish sea.
No more sparks. Good night i'm off to bed.:rolleyes:

ArKl0w

Well the smaller ones (compared to what's over Biscay) are weakening alright
The storm approaching Wexford appears to have no sferics for the last half hour

However what's over central NW France is heading NNW

You can see its potential trajectory in the following link
It's basically going to take the same route through west Cornwall and into the Celtic sea west of Pembrokeshire as the Wexford blob did today
The difference is,the current French stuff is much much bigger and much more electrified

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/france.html

JCX BXC

No strikes off the system off wexford for at least 30mins.

glightning

Ireland is not, and never has been within the plume proper this time. We are too far to the west on the cold side of the precipitation with this one in the much cooler airmass. Dewpoints are in the upper teens across the water, we are just around 10c right now. It's a different story in France as they still have high dewpoints and warm airmass in place.

This time round, we missed the heat, humidity, and storms unfortunately.

ArKl0w

glightning wrote: »

Ireland is not, and never has been within the plume proper this time. We are too far to the west on the cold side of the precipitation with this one in the much cooler airmass. Dewpoints are in the upper teens across the water, we are just around 10c right now. It's a different story in France as they still have high dewpoints and warm airmass in place.

This time round, we missed the heat, humidity, and storms unfortunately.

I know but that only counts if we were making our own storms
Here we are talking about importing storms made elsewhere
Different story altogether

glightning

We'll see, but I suspect that even at the mid levels any storms will never make it this far NW. If you carefully watch the lightning activity in that system over France, it is continuing to move to the NNE whilst rapidly dying out in the west. Southern England is best positioned right now for any chance of something from France.

But again, let's see! Would be happy to be proven wrong (though of course, I'm up here in NI where it is even less likely!)

Hal1

Forecast from ME:

Some thundery rain will move onto the Southeast coast early tonight and will move Northwards up through Eastern coastal counties during the night hours. It will stay mostly dry elsewhere with broken cloud and a few mist patches forming in a light to moderate Northerly breeze. Lowest temperatures 9 to 13 degrees Celsius, coolest in the west.

.

ArKl0w

glightning wrote: »

We'll see, but I suspect that even at the mid levels any storms will never make it this far NW. If you carefully watch the lightning activity in that system over France, it is continuing to move to the NNE whilst rapidly dying out in the west. Southern England is best positioned right now for any chance of something from France.

But again, let's see! Would be happy to be proven wrong (though of course, I'm up here in NI where it is even less likely!)

Aye, I'm pretty much looking for decaying remnants which I wouldn't rule out surviving as far as near Wexford anyway,certainly out of that 2nd lot
I shan't be staying up for it but won't be annoyed if awoken later obviously

vicwatson

Now met eireann tweet

Thundery rain along SE & E coastal counties overnight, mostly dry elsewhere. Some mist patches also. Lows 9 to 13 deg, coolest in W.