Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2016-17

Meteorite58

All quiet atm except for the North of Scotland

Oscar Bravo

Not for any of us to get excited about , but the UK Met Office have warnings out for locally heavy and in places thundery rain across central and eastern areas of England on Friday.
They have upgraded their warnings to Amber for London and Greater London down to Hampshire. 100 mm of rain possible in a few hours. Pretty serious flooding likely in these areas

Storm 10

Some lightning storm off the Coast of Anzio Italy

http://www.lightningmaps.org

Meteorite58

That must be one hell of show off Naples this evening

Trebor176

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That must be one hell of show off Naples this evening

Mother of God! :eek:

cml387

Dammit I was there last week and apart from some distant lightning there was nothing.

Storm 10

Some great lightning on this webcam for Pula Croatia

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/hrvatska/istra/pula/marina-verudela-pula.html

Meteorite58

Met Eireann forecasting blustery conditions on Thurs with widespread showers, some heavy with the risk of isolated thunderstorms in parts of the NW.

paulhac

Trebor176 wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That must be one hell of show off Naples this evening

Mother of God! :eek:

i was there that night, coming home tomorrow, unbelievable storms, all I can say is constant lightning and thunder, very slow moving in to Sorrento, lightning was seen from 7 pm horizon to horizon, storms hit me at about 10 30 pm, bolt hit the swimming pool area, I was standing having a pint at the pool bar, deafening shotgun blast, thought my number was up!

Meteorite58

Some sferic in places today

Meteorite58

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 22 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 23 Sep 2016

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Wed 21 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

In the post-frontal environment, cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates as a sharp upper trough migrates NE-wards, allowing deep convection to bring showers, sometimes in more organised bands, with a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms possible too. The lightning risk will be greatest (but considered sub-SLGT criteria) over Ireland and Northern Ireland on Thursday afternoon, the focus then shifting NE with time to W Scotland by evening. Gusty winds and hail up to 1.0-1.5cm in diameter will be possible with the best organised showers/storms.

Meteorite58

Could be an interesting day



Northern British Isles

An intense mid-level trough passes by over Ireland and Scotland in the afternoon and evening. CAPE is low due to relatively weak moisture and cool temperatures. However, strong low-level vertical wind shear could support shallow mesocyclones that could produce tornadoes in case of some stronger diurnal heating.

Meteorite58

Interesting to see today the almost complete lack of sferics over land. What convection formed over the relatively warm sea was as Convective Weather predicted ' weakly electrified ' and ran out of juice very quickly not making it onto land. The sea temp at the M4 Buoy ( 40 NM off the Donegal coast ) was 14C today and the M6 ( deep Atlantic ) was 15.1C , some stations in the North of the country struggled to get an air temp above 14C today.

I wonder would the couple of very cool nights have had an effect in not producing electrical activity over land today, soil temps yesterday between 12.5C and 14.5C and I presume would have been a bit lower today, in other words not warm enough to lift air parcels or keep the convection powered up?

By the way, Met Eireann dropped the forecast for Thunderstorms the last couple of days before today, well done to them.

Meteorite58

Possibility Sunday with a forecast for heavy blustery showers of rain and hail.

DOCARCH

Great light show in Barcelona atm!

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/espana/cataluna/barcelona/playa-barceloneta.html

Meteorite58

The chart for Barcelona atm looks a lot different to Sundays one for Ireland

Storm 10

DOCARCH wrote: »

Great light show in Barcelona atm!

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/espana/cataluna/barcelona/playa-barceloneta.html

Looking at Barcelona Airport a while ago I never saw so many aircraft delays in and out, I presume it's because of the lightning, seems to be getting back to normal now

Meteorite58

Convective Weather saying a chance of lightning tonight in parts of Ireland from a sharp upper trough and cold mid levels, the NE perhaps ?

Meteorite58

Convective Outlook: Sun 25 Sep 2016




VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Sep 2016

ISSUED 16:23 UTC Sat 24 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong DLS along the cold front boundary may continue to produce some elements of line convection, especially on the leading edge of the precipitation field, as the front clears eastwards across E/SE England on Sunday morning - although the risk of lightning is very low (near 5-10%).


Otherwise, the post-frontal environment will exhibit notably steep lapse rates as a sharp upper trough slides NE from the Atlantic across the British Isles. Numerous showers, as a result of cold air aloft atop relatively warm SSTs, will be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period over portions of Ireland, and will tend to become more widespread in coverage through the day across many areas - although very few in sheltered eastern parts. Lightning will be rather sporadic in nature, hence the broad LOW threat level issued, but a favourable overlap of instability phasing with peak diurnal heating suggests a better chance of showers becoming electrified across northern parts of Ireland into Northern Ireland on Sunday afternoon - hence a SLGT issued here.

The strongest cells will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

jimmynokia

Just got very dark and windy in DN 22 see some strikes nea roscrea

Trebor176

I think I just heard thunder in D22. Too short a rumble to be an aircraft.

robclay26

Few good loud rumbles west of delvin, co Westmeath

PukkaStukka

robclay26 wrote: »

Few good loud rumbles west of delvin, co Westmeath

That part of the world seems to fertile ground for storms this year. Well done!

ArKl0w

Yeah,thunder would have been audible in Dublin from those strikes off Dublin Bay
Westmeath strikes are in a shower train that might also spark in Dublin shortly

Lightning radar image attached

Oscar Bravo

Some nice lightning earlier today near Ferbane(just south of athlone) , torrential rain also. About 1230

Meteorite58

Nothing down my way here in Kerry although some nice big convective cloud that produced very cold rain ( did not see any hail ) dropping the temperature a couple of degrees in the showers.

I noticed the radar was showing some heavy thundery rain at 6.15 am this morning in my area, however it wasn't anything more than just heavy.

Oscar Bravo

I also notice that the nw storm weather radar often picks up a strike or 2 most mornings along the West coast

Meteorite58

Met Eireann mentioning the possibility of heavy thundery showers the next couple of days. Not much rain showing up on the models Thurs but more on Fri, especially in Atlantic Counties.

Oscar Bravo

Few sparks off the West coast